Mirage 10-20: Do you like this river card?

This hand is from an afternoon game at the Mirage.


The hand:


Everybody folds to me in middle position. I open-raise with AsKc. It's folded to the button who makes it 3 bets. The blinds fold and it's heads-up.


The button is HOT! Two hands earlier he raised out of his big blind with AA. The very next hand he raised out of his small blind- with AA again. Now he's 3-betting. However, I didn't get the impression that he was "playing his rush". In the short time I had the opportunity to watch him play, he wasn't showing any loose-aggressive tendancies.


The flop is: Ts,6c,4s


I check. The button bets. I call.


The turn is: Ts,6c,4s,5h


I check and the button checks behind me.


The river is: Ts,6c,4s,5h,Kd


Do you like this river card? What's your play?

You like the river card, although it might not have put you ahead.


Your play is to check.


Assuming he is good and not assuming he has any read on you:


His likely 3-bet hands A,K A,Q A,A K,K Q,Q J,J T,T and maybe A,X


He checks the turn behind you. Eliminate Q,Q J,J T,T (and maybe K,K) because I doubt he is giving you a free shot at overcards.


Leaves A,K A,Q A,A K,K


Your bet will only get called with hands that likely beat you. However, a check might induce bluffs from hands that you beat (e.g., A,Q or A,X or a small pair).


What is the correct flop play? I would try and control here with a lead raise or a check-raise or fold. I hate the check-call because you are getting poor odds depending on the hands you place on your opponent. If you don't hit an outer you place yourself in bad position on the turn. With aggression you can possibly steal if a blank hits.

I'd think he three bet with a standard raising hand, and since he didn't bet the turn I don't think it was a pair, so I would put him on AK or AQs.


I'd bet the river.

You have to like this river card. I don't see why you wouldn't. I would put on A,Q or possibly A,Js.


By the button checking the turn behind you, you almost for sure have the best hand here.


Bet this river and collect the money /images/smile.gif

He probably puts you on AK or AQ or maybe TT when you just call his 3-bet and call on the flop. He probably 3-bets preflop with AK or AA-JJ. He would bet JJ and probably QQ on the turn to pick up the pot. His most likely holdings are AA, KK, or AK. I would check-call the river here.

Why do you think he would not bet the turn with AA or KK? Thanx.

The guy sounds like a maniac to me.


I would have put him on 4d2d and folded the flop!

He very well might, but he also might be trying to trap AK or induce a bluff. I'm a bit surprised that he checked the turn, but given that he checked the turn, I think AA or KK is more likely than QQ or JJ. I think an A would have been a better card for Dynasty than a K.

I'm a fan of the river card. I'd put most players on AQ and go for a check-raise here, which I think will get called.


Against a super-tight, overly conservative player, I'd put them on JJ/QQ and bet here.

The button's turn check may very well be a trap. I believe he's holding either TT or AA and checked behind on the turn to allow Dynasty to spike one of his overcards or induce a bluff.


Assuming at least a mildly capable player, to 3-bet preflop and then check behind on the turn is highly supsicious. I would expect only weak-tight fish to play like this when they are holding nothing.


The old mantra: "he shouldn't bet because the button won't call with a worse hand" does not apply here. Dynasty should only bet if he thinks his opponent plays poorly enough that he will 3-bet pre-flop and then behave weakly post-flop with position when he doesn't make a hand.

The river is: Ts,6c,4s,5h,Kd


I thought the river card was terrible almost regardless of what my opponent had. There were suggestions that my opponent could be playing deceptively with TT or AA. Obviously, the river card is bad for me in those situations. If he made a very weak check on the turn with QQ or JJ, then I may not got a call on the river (but probably would). I think QQ and JJ are very unlikely holdings. Why would you check QQ or JJ?


I thought there was one hand which was my opponent's most likely holding given the way he played- AK. Therefore, I was upset when I saw the King. Why? Because I had already decided to bet the river with my unimproved AK and expected my opponent to fold his unimproved AK. If a blank had come on the river, I expected to win the whole pot.


So, the river was a King. I checked. My opponent bet. I checkraised for no rational reason. My opponent called. We both had AK and split the pot. I was sure my opponent would have folded AK. After all, what kind of fool calls on the river with an unimproved AK? /images/smile.gif


Then, I got a surprise about an hour later. I had met 2+2 poster Mikey earlier in the day. After moving to a 10-20 stud game, I saw Pokerbabe sit down in my old 10-20 hold'em game. So, I introduced Mikey to Pokerbabe. To my surprise, my AK opponent approached us and said "You must be (Dynasty)". So, I realized only then that he was another 2+2 poster who was in Vegas for the week- David Ottosen.


David claims he would have called on the river with his unimproved AK because somebody on this forum told him it can be profitable to do so under the right circumstances.


David, Mikey, Clarkmeister, and I had dinner later that night and then played about 4-5 hours of 4-8 hold'em at Mandalay Bay together. This afternoon, we took a trip to the Gambler's bookstore (mk420, you got all your books) and played a few more hours of 4-8 at the Monte Carlo.

I still think you both played this one like a couple of little girls. /images/wink.gif

Interesting.


However, what do you think your opponent put you on? Given your call on the reraise preflop, the check-call on the flop and the check on the turn, It is hard to put you on a high pair. He can most likely put you on a hand like A,K or A,Q.


Did he tell you what he put you on?


However, given that read then he should have semi-bluffed the turn.


Against a strong agressive player in a situation like this I am thinking the turn check is the old induce a bluff check.

AQ/AK are what it felt like. I thought AQ was a little more likely given the turn check. If I'm your opponent, I put you on similar hands.


I still like the K, because (almost always in 15-30 here, sometime in 6-12) AK will call me down anyway on the river (given that no strength has been shown) and AQ is likely to bluff and perhaps even pay off a checkraise if he thinks you're tricky.


On the other hand, a small pocket pair that stuck around might also call my river bet in many situations when I don't improve my AK.