Folding a four flus on the turn with K9s, my first session at 5/10

[Guido]

UTG and UTG + 1 are too loose and play any two paint cards from any position. The button is loose and likes to raise on the turn with top pair or anything HU. Blinds are loose. I've no further reads on them because I am only about half an hour at the table.

Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Guido is CO with K/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 folds, MP3 folds, Guido calls, Button calls, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.40 SB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+1 checks, Guido checks, Button checks.

Turn: (2.70 BB) 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">BB bets</font>, UTG folds, UTG+1 folds, Guido folds, Button folds.

Final Pot: 3.70 BB

Good fold or not?

Thanks,

Guido

[Dynasty]

It's a terrible fold. You'll probably win if a King or 9 comes on the river. Hell, King-high might be the best hand.

[Nate tha' Great]

The fold is wrong. You could very possibly have as many as 15 outs and are getting at least 4.7:1 if you consider implied odds.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

It's a good play if you like folding 15 outers.

[Little Fishy]

I think it was a solid lay down and I don't see 15 outs. I see 7 outs and one very dangerous and expensive card. You have 13 /images/graemlins/spade.gif's minus the the four exposed ones, minus the 8 which could give BB a full, and minus some other /images/graemlins/spade.gif which could give him a hidden full and cost you a lot.

BB hasn't had to put any extra $ besides his blind in yet and so you have no information on his hand and he could very easily have a 5 in the hole. The pot isn't big either so I wouldn't risk the extra $.

-Little Fishy

[Mike Gallo]

I think it was a solid lay down and I don't see 15 outs.

What hand do you put your opponent on? Why must your opponent have exactly a 5?

[Little Fishy]

My point is your opponent was on BB and hasn't thrown an extra penny in the pot. He could have nothing, a 67 for the strait draw, or some combo with a 5 giving him trips and a possibility to hit a full, even when you do improve. I think It's dangerous playing a against a hand that could be be anything, everything or nothing. If Hero deosn't raise the turn to see where BB is, than I think his only real option is to fold rather than risk getting bum rushed on the end by some cruddy preflop hand that hit big.

-Little Fishy

[Clarkmeister]

No one has mentioned your biggest mistake, which is not betting the flop. I'd also raise preflop against poor playing limpers.

[Nate tha' Great]

[ QUOTE ]
My point is your opponent was on BB and hasn't thrown an extra penny in the pot. He could have nothing, a 67 for the strait draw, or some combo with a 5 giving him trips and a possibility to hit a full, even when you do improve. I think It's dangerous playing a against a hand that could be be anything, everything or nothing. If Hero deosn't raise the turn to see where BB is, than I think his only real option is to fold rather than risk getting bum rushed on the end by some cruddy preflop hand that hit big.

-Little Fishy

[/ QUOTE ]

Even if BB has trips, his call would be correct with an 8-outer. He will almost certinaly be able to get 2 big bets out of his opponent on the river, which gives him effective odds of 5.7-to-1; hell, he might be able to get in four bets with a runner-runner draw. The fact that he has two overcard outs is just a bonus.

If Hero deosn't raise the turn to see where BB is

Raising the turn is probably a bad idea since he'd have to call a 3-bet.

[bonanz]

is it just me or do a lot of people act like a puss when they have flush draw and there is a pair on the board...just noticed a lot of posts about people folding first or second nut flush draws with at least one overcard and a pair on the board.

Does this have to do with the weak mind state of computing the absolute nuts and putting your opponent(s) on that hand or some other close monster?

bonanz

[blackaces13]

WHAT!?

I haven't read the responses and maybe I'm missing something but this fold looks very very wrong.

[Joe826]

Clark, would you mind elaborating on why this was his biggest mistake? I probably would have checked it through also unless I thought there was a good chance the other players would fold to a bet (and judging from his description of opponents I think they would have probably hung in there).

[wrongpond]

Good fold. It's to hard to know if the bb doesn't have a large piece of this flop, that's just the kinda hand he could have, and your not getting good odds to draw. With an unpaired board you could play this, because you would be getting the value of the times you pair one of your overcards and beat his top pair, but with a paired board he'll have trips or better often enough to make this a pretty clear fold, IMHO.

i must be in the...

wrongpond

[vienna68]

Only if you win every time when you hit the hand - you lose 3 bets if by chance your opponent fills if you flush - and do you really raise everytime if a 9 or K comes on the river an the BB bets - implied odds are not really important

BR
Vienna 68

[Bob T.]

Not.

[Thomsen]

two overcards
backdoorflushpotential
backdoor straightpotential
plus small chance everyone will fold to the semibluff
plus building the pot which makes the odds better to draw on the turn

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
It's a terrible fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

I know, just wanted to punnish myself for being weak tight when moving up. And boy you guys did /images/graemlins/grin.gif. I just woke up and man what a responses. At 3/6 or lower I would play like this: Raise preflop about 60% or 70% of the time, bet the flop, bet the turn... /images/graemlins/mad.gif.

Thanks,

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
The fold is wrong. You could very possibly have as many as 15 outs and are getting at least 4.7:1 if you consider implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]
I know you're right, thanks...

Guido

[Guido]

I have to disagree with you here. I have 7 clean outs, 2 good outs and 6 reasonable outs which make it a clear call if I wasn't such a weak tight ass while moving up /images/graemlins/grin.gif. I get 3.7:1 with implied odds of 4.7:1 which should make it an easy call.

Guido

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
No one has mentioned your biggest mistake, which is not betting the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]
You're absolutely right!

[ QUOTE ]
I'd also raise preflop against poor playing limpers.

[/ QUOTE ]
I just moved up so I'm a little less aggressive. I hope you don't mind /images/graemlins/grin.gif. When I'm used to the higher limit it will come back, I'm sure. I moved to 3/6 about a month ago and after the first few days I played the same as at 2/4.

Thanks for your help,

Guido

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
his call would be correct with an 8-outer

[/ QUOTE ]
It's a 7-outer in this case, the rest you said is absolutely right. I should have called/ played the hole hand completely different.

Thanks,

Guido

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
Does this have to do with the weak mind state of computing the absolute nuts and putting your opponent(s) on that hand or some other close monster?

[/ QUOTE ]
NO, it has to do with moving up. For some strange reason you get weaker and tighter. I know this but I still can't help it. I moved up to 3/6 about a month ago and had the same thing. I thought I could turn this around by posting these weak hands and getting flamed by you guys. When I did that it seemed to work because in no time I played the same at 3/6 as at 2/4. I don't know why but it seems to work for me...

Thanks,

Guido

[Guido]

[ QUOTE ]
Clark, would you mind elaborating on why this was his biggest mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]
I'm not Clark but here's why:
1 You might win right here
2 You might buy the button and a free card when needed
3 Maybe clean up your overcards
4 You might have the best hand
5 Reasons Thomsen gave

Thanks,

Guido

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I think It's dangerous playing a against a hand that could be be anything, everything or nothing.

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing dangerous is folding. When an opponent could literally have anything from quad 5's to 32o, you're in a situation to consider calling the river with an unimproved King high.

Everyone keeps arguing about exactly how many outs Hero has. But, you're all still ignoring the distinct possibility that King-high is actually the best hand.

[Saborion]

Reading your posts lately has made me think that either you're pretty loose post, or I have a lot left to learn. Being that I appears to be weak post, and "knowing" that you're a winning player and a respected poster, well, I suppose I should look for reasons NOT to fold instead of the other way around. I'd fold just like Hero did in this hand. I suppose I should start playing a bit more... well, less tight post-flop from now and post the results.

[Dynasty]

You've got to think about why the Big Blind is betting. Most studious players just think "he's betting because he's got a hand".

Three players limped in pre-flop and then the low-rainbow flop got checked through. If the Big Blind's paying attention at all, he's got to think the flopped missed everybody- which it did. So, his bet can be expected to pick up the pot when the middle card pairs on the turn.

This pot can be often be won with a very weak hand or re-stolen.

And, make sure you start betting in those situtations on thet urn.

[Saborion]

My bad. I just re-read the hand. I sort of mixed up the turn play somehow. Since it's folded to Hero, yes, I'm not sure folding is ok.

I make those kind of turns bets myself, thinking that since I'm in the BB people might give me credit for a low card like that.

[Mike Gallo]

And, make sure you start betting in those situtations on the turn.

The first person who gets money in the pot usually wins.
Great example of reverse position.

[BaronVonCP]

I'd bet that turn a large majority of the time with any holding. Including T2.