Routine Fold

[Chris Daddy Cool]

4/8 B&M

I got A /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/spade.gif on the button. Sitting on my direct right is the CO, a solid tight aggressive player and the rest are a bunch of fish in the sea.

UTG calls. UTG+1 calls. MP2 calls. CO calls. I raise. SB folds. BB calls. The limpers call. 6 to the flop.

Flop: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif 5 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

BB comes out betting. UTG calls. UTG+1 folds. MP2 calls. CO raises. I 3bet. BB folds. UTG calls. MP2 calls. CO caps. I fold...

Easy fold right? 3betting was the right line too right?

[Homer]

I don't think it's quite as easy a fold as you think. You're getting 28:1. While it's true that much of the time CO will have a set, some of the time he'll have two-pair with A9s or A5s, and in those cases you have 3 outs and are 15:1 against catching on the turn. What percentage of the time do you think he'll have a set?

-- Homer

[Homer]

If you assume he'll play the same way with 99/55/A9s/A5s, he'll have a set 3/4 of the time, so I guess I was wrong and it is a rather easy fold, since you need him to have a set less than ~half the time to justify taking one off.

-- Homer

[J.R.]

Isn't there a chance he has A5s or A9s and knows you are far more likely to have AK/AQ/AJ that AA here so he caps?

Wouldn't he be more likely to smoothcall 99 or 55 here?

Maybe not, but I would be more inclined to cap 2 pair and smoothcall a set, since you look like you have a one pair hand here and he doesn't want to loose you with a set.

I like three-betting the flop if you are sure he won't cap without a set, otherwise you make a very weak looking fold in a huge pot with the odds to outdraw two pair.

If you 3-bet with the intention of checking the turn because he wouldn't cap 2 pair then I like it, or if he would play a medium Ace this way, but if you think you are behind I don't see much value in it because you may end up make a fold that is bad for both image and EV reasons.

[Mike Gallo]

What percentage of the time do you think he'll have a set?

Unless he has a problem with premature ejaculation he most likely does not have a set. Most players will wait until the turn to raise with a set.

[Mike Gallo]

Easy fold right?

Wrong, I would not consider this an easy fold.

[Homer]

Unless he has a problem with premature ejaculation he most likely does not have a set. Most players will wait until the turn to raise with a set.

True, but 30% of men suffer from premature ejaculation, so the possbility of a set must be considered.

[LetsRock]

I think 3 betting is pretty manditory here - now's the time to find out just how strong Co's hand is.

Don't like his cap, but I don't think it's an autofold by any means. Feels a lot like a set, but could be 2 pair, maybe even a gutshot with a backdoor flush draw (a stretch, I know). Depends on just how aggressive he is. I think I'd have to see the turn hoping for a Q for 1 more SB. UTG and MP2 probably have a weak aces (your aces are either out or thin) so a couple of Qs would sure look sweet on the tail (but that would be a lot to ask for).

I looks like you'll get to showdown for 2 bets if you choose, so I'm thinking I want to see his cards (your kicker is pretty strong to bought off for a couple of SBs). There's 12BB in the pot before CO's cap (24:1 to peel off the turn). You'll get ~8:1 to see the river. ~10:1 to showdown. Seems like good enough odds to me (most of the time).

There's exacly 27 sets of cards that he could hold and be ahead of you. 1 is AA and 8 are AK. I think you can safely eliminate these hands since he didn't raise PF.

There's 12 combinations of A9, A5 but only 2 are suited which would fit into the "tight image".

There are 6 combinations of 99,55. That makes a total of 8 hands that he's likely to be holding that beat you (assuming your tight aggressive read is correct).

I think I'd take my chances going to showdown with my AQ here. May EVEN be worth popping the turn to chase the other weak aces away. Maybe.

Of course, you don't get the half hour I spent figuring all this out while you're in the hand, but I just spent the time justifying to myself why I would tend to call this down, because I probably would (barring a pair on the board).

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I just didn't think he'd cap my 3bet without a set.

Also in two other hands I've seen him cap the flop and still go for a checkraise on the turn and river in the same hand.

But you guys are of course right. Its not as nearly as easy a fold as I made it out to be.

[LetsRock]

[ QUOTE ]
I just didn't think he'd cap my 3bet without a set.


[/ QUOTE ]

If that's your gut, then go with it.

[ QUOTE ]
Also in two other hands I've seen him cap the flop and still go for a checkraise on the turn and river in the same hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

That kept you from calling? This move equals free river card to me if the turn doesn't bring help.

[Schmed]

uh...no.....

what did you put the CO on??? Do you think he has 2 pr?? set??? I call his cap in a second and bet if checked to on the turn. If he comes out betting I probably just go in to call down mode or here is where I may fold but I doubt it. I'm not folding that flop after I just put in 3 bets in a pot that is huge at this point. I'm calling one more bet at least and more often then not calling it down. When/if he shows me the set I say NH and walk away. He could just as likely have the A5, to which you would be drawing thin but not anywhere near dead. You'd have any 9, any q, and any turn card. The river is your friend here..... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
That kept you from calling? This move equals free river card to me if the turn doesn't bring help.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, but Mike Gallo pointed out that most players would wait till the turn to make their move with their sets. I just wanted to clarify that it's certainly possibly that this guy would try to make a move on every single street, including the flop.

[LetsRock]

I understand that you reconized the possibility of getting c/r, so why not let it check through - you have position here and get to make these decisions. The fact that he may try to c/r the turn makes it an alomost automatic cap call on the flop.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

I don't think he'd check the turn given his position because he cant' be certain I'd bet knowing that I know that he's a checkraiser.

[chesspain]

Yo, Yo, Yoze, your flop fold done blows!

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think he'd check the turn given his position because he cant' be certain I'd bet knowing that I know that he's a checkraiser.



[/ QUOTE ]

How does he know this? You may be assuming he knows you too well. Giving him too much credit.

Obviously, you're not sure enough of this guy so id call it down. Or at least im sliding one off on the turn and probably going to the river and showdown. UTG's calling all that action can be something to watch for though. Especially if he gets active on the turn.

b

[adanthar]

You folded getting 28:1 to see the turn card? If all 3 Q's are in the deck, one is 9:1 to hit- and if you are behind to a set, which is doubtful, you then have odds to chase the house.

Hell, if ONE Q is in the deck, along with ONE ace, you have a 29:1 chance to hit the Q and a 29:1 chance to hit the A which will then give you at least four outs on the river (one Q plus three of the 5 or 9.)

Add in the table image problem you'll be giving yourself by 3 betting and then folding for one more and there is no possible way I do this.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

When the CO capped the flop, I sat and thought for a little while and folded and the CO looked at me as if I were crazy. The dealer certainly thought I was.

As it turns out, CO had 55 for the set and UTG had A9 for two pair. When this hand went down, I assumed the only way I was going to win was runner runner QQ or runner runner AQ. One thing I wasn't considering at the moment was the pot odds. I'm getting 25:1 to hit runner runner Q Q or Q A. I'm pretty slow with the math, but do I have the odds?

Anyhoo, this particular hand I was quite certain I was up against a set and quite possibly a A9 or A5 at the same time, though I'm probably not certain enough over 1,000 hands to make this fold profitable. As they, "The pot's too damn big to fold."

But I felt confident at the time it was a good fold, though after getting your guy's feedback, I should have probably bit the bullet and seen a showdown.

Oh yea, about the table image thing, I'm usually a total LAG once I'm in a pot. /images/graemlins/smile.gif
It's just these few times where I look like a weak-tight. /images/graemlins/frown.gif


Chris

[FletchJr.]

your absolutley right good lay down your the greatest? is that what you want to hear?
no offense but your saying this player is tricky enuff to c/r the turn, but in the same sentance saying he won't because of his position.

[Chris Daddy Cool]

[ QUOTE ]
no offense but your saying this player is tricky enuff to c/r the turn, but in the same sentance saying he won't because of his position.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't see how this is relavent to whether or not he had a set. However, this checkraising the turn thing is being taken out of context. I should rephrase myself and say that I've seen him checkraise in early position.

[ QUOTE ]
your absolutley right good lay down your the greatest? is that what you want to hear?


[/ QUOTE ]
No, I don't wanna hear that I'm the greatest. On the contrary, most of the hands that I post are met with negative responses. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif That's because I usually post the hands that gave me trouble or that I felt were questionable.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
But I felt confident at the time it was a good fold, though after getting your guy's feedback, I should have probably bit the bullet and seen a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

None of us were there. So your read is infinitely better than ours. Sometimes you can get just a 'feel' that something is out there. Fall back on calling if you're unsure. Here it seems you had one of those 'feelings'. Which overrides the basic play of calling it. If it was a live game, you may have tapped into a bet speed or something additional for this read. Who knows.

If you're that sure, you fold. Were you confident enough that if they showed down a lesser hand and you wouldve won had you called, that your gut wouldnt go back up in your throat? It's ok to lay down a winner. It's going to happen. The offset is that if your read was strong, but the opponent happened to suprise you, you adjust a bit to compensate for it possibly happening later on. Calling looser.

However, what really sucks is making this fold and not seeing the showdown. It's always nice to get the confirmation of a showdown on plays like this. Just in case.

Trusting your reads can be a hurdle. Is a hurdle, actually. Some want to trust it so bad they end up folding too much trying to make great laydowns. Some days reads will be stronger than others. Even against the same players.

In this hand, you trusted your read, and played it right. Now, think of how all the other guys on the table wouldve played this. You probably saw/sensed something they wouldnt have. How much extra they wouldve spent? That's extra that you actually made on the hand in relation to their play.

You just have to be sure your read is strong enough that the gag reflex wont kick in. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

I wouldve called. I wasnt there.

Nice fold.

b