flop decision ?

[Thomsen]

CO has lost most of his stack and i think he is tilting

SB no notes

MP1 tight

EP 2 plays a lot of hands aproxx 50-60 % (but not a maniac postflop)

Party Poker 3/6 (10 handed)
Thomsen has K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, K/images/graemlins/spade.gif and is Button

EP2 limps, MP1 limps, CO raises, Thomsen 3-bets, SB calls, BB folds, EP2 calls, MP1 calls, CO calls

Flop(16 SB): J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, J/images/graemlins/club.gif, 9/images/graemlins/club.gif

SB checks, EP2 checks, MP1 checks, CO bets, Thomsen raises, SB folds, EP2 3-bets, MP1 folds, CO calls, CO is all in, Thomsen ???

[nothumb]

Well, I think there's a decent chance you're beat, but I don't think you can fold just yet. You will get to showdown relatively cheaply if you don't improve, and you're not that scared of either the CO or EP2. It's possible EP2 has a J but just as possible he's got a 9 or a club draw or some combo of straight/flush cards. Either way, knowing you can see the turn/river relatively cheap, I think this is a call, and going into call-down mode after.

[bernie]

Many players who see 50+% that arent maniacs postflop are usually passive, imo. Especially with c/r hands. Meaning, their c/r standard is usually a strong, made hand. They dont usually c/r a draw. Seeing prior hands helps this.

I think you're beat by a J. There's going to be a showdown with the all in in there. I would call then consider folding if bet into on the turn.

BUT, if not sure, call it out and expect to see a J. After all, this isnt someone like Dynasty trying to bump you off a hand.

b

[Joe Tall]

Call the flop and raise a non- /images/graemlins/club.gif/str8 card on the turn.

Much more often you see a hand like A9 w/A /images/graemlins/club.gif, 2- /images/graemlins/club.gifs or QT play the flop like this as the Jack will show strength on a higher street. Can you fold to a turn-3bet? Most definately yes as you've got a showdown w/an all-in player.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe Tall]

Yo bernie,

I think you're beat by a J

I don't. Wouldn't you expect to see turn action for the Jack and flop action from a draw trying to move you off and overpair?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Tosh]

I wouldn't discount a jack just because there was flop action.

[StellarWind]

Sure looks like a J or 99 to me. Pretty vicious way to play a drawing hand. At 24-1 folding is not an option. The least you could possibly do is call and hope for a king.

Joe Tall, explain to me how an all-in player should influence my decision making on the later streets? How would your approach differ if CO were solvent and calling bets? Why do you prefer raise-folding a turn blank to just calling the turn and river when the pot is so large?

[Sarge85]

JT -

I'm 60% certain this is a Jack

It'd be higher, because if *I* was him, and had the case Jack - and had two aggressors (one a maniac, one a LP PF raiser), I'd let them raise the flop, and then I'd CR the turn.

Sarge/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

[Joe Tall]

I wouldn't discount a jack just because there was flop action.

Agreed, however answer me this, take into account that your opponent is a thinking player:

1. You hold A /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, how do you play this flop?

2. You hold Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif T /images/graemlins/club.gif, flop play?

3. You hold K /images/graemlins/club.gif 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif, flop play?

I feel that there are so many more holdings that could make a play at this flop and putting him on a Jack is just too fast.

(I played a similar hand like this last month, I'll wait a bit and post it.)

Peace,
Joe Tall

[cwl]

[ QUOTE ]
Call the flop and raise a non- /images/graemlins/club.gif/str8 card on the turn.

Much more often you see a hand like A9 w/A /images/graemlins/club.gif, 2- /images/graemlins/club.gifs or QT play the flop like this as the Jack will show strength on a higher street. Can you fold to a turn-3bet? Most definately yes as you've got a showdown w/an all-in player.


[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think raising the turn is that great here. unless my math is off at the point where he 3 bets you there are around 16BB in the pot. that means that if your sure he has a jack or 99 you are right that you have a fold but your two outer is actually worth about .75BB which you are forced to give up. that kind of sucks. you also have to be really really sure that he has you beat here. i understand the significance of the all-in player but that doesnt mean that he does. maybe he has a straight flush draw and thinks thats just the greatest thing in the world. maybe he was trying to be sneaky pre-flop with QQ and just thinks his hand is good. maybe he is just an idiot. i certainly acknowledge that the likelihood of all of these things is pretty small but the combination of all these things i think makes getting 3 bet suck a lot.

the other negatives i see to the turn raise are:
1) if he in fact has a better hand there is a very high probability that he will 3 bet here. if there was more of a chance that that raise would slow him down even with a better hand i dont think it would be as bad.
2) i think its very unlikely that it actually saves you the pot. his potential draws arent folding here so its not like you risk the pot by not raising. you potentially miss out on 1 bet when you guess right. you may not even miss out on that bet if he bluffs his draw on the river. that 1 extra bet you gain when you are right is nearly couterbalanced just by the pot equity you lose by having to fold your 2 outer to a 3 bet. if you factor in the possibility of you folding the best hand even a tiny percentage of the time it looks even worse.
3) if he only calls your turn raise and he bets out on the river your stuck calling an extra bet. even if a club or a potential straight card falls and he bets out i dont think you can fold.
4) if a scare card hits and he checks to you can you value bet in that spot? if not you have risked all the negatives that go along with that turn raise and dont even get an extra bet out of it. if you do bet it and get checkraised thats obviously pretty unpleasant too.

[Joe Tall]

explain to me how an all-in player should influence my decision making on the later streets?

The all-in player gives the pot protection by guaranteeing a showdown.

I also find that the point of CO's 'all-in', after the c/r 3-bet, changes things. As many 'board-focused' players will not notice this until the action occurs.

How would your approach differ if CO were solvent and calling bets?

It's unlikely that MP would 3-bet without the goods on the turn if the CO calls bets to get there and you continue with the plan to raise.

Why do you prefer raise-folding a turn blank to just calling the turn and river when the pot is so large?

It's likely you have the best hand, if you don't, you'll know, when you do, you'll get the money in when you have it good.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[cwl]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't discount a jack just because there was flop action.

Agreed, however answer me this, take into account that your opponent is a thinking player:

1. You hold A /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif, how do you play this flop?



[/ QUOTE ]

i think there is actually a pretty good chance i play it fast on the flop. i would also be less likely to aggressively semi-bluff my draws since there is a nearly all-in player who will almost certainly be all in. the bluff part of the semi-bluff just has less value. the all-in player also increases the likelihood that my non all in opponent will check behind on the the turn without a legit hand. if he has a legit hand he may raise me on the turn giving me a chance to 3 bet which would be great. if i have either the straight draw or the flush draw the paired board diminishes their value a bit and if i have the straight draw the flush draw hurts its value even more. these factors would also make me a bit less likely to play the draws aggressively in this spot.

[MaxPower]

Well you certainly don't fold that's for sure.

[Joe Tall]

i think there is actually a pretty good chance i play it fast on the flop. i would also be less likely to aggressively semi-bluff my draws since there is a nearly all-in player who will almost certainly be all in.

You and I play it the same. But your average Party Poker player would...? I doubt that.

Common now boys, battle with me, this one is right up JTG's 'debate' post, let's go!

Go time,
Joe Tall

[cwl]

[ QUOTE ]
i think there is actually a pretty good chance i play it fast on the flop. i would also be less likely to aggressively semi-bluff my draws since there is a nearly all-in player who will almost certainly be all in.

You and I play it the same. But your average Party Poker player would...? I doubt that.


[/ QUOTE ]

i would agree with you that the average party poker player is probably more likely than i am to wait for the turn. i didnt really mean to obscure the issue by responding as i did. i answered with what i would do because i thought that is how you phrased the question but i entirely agree that the relevant question is how his opponent would likely play it rather than how i, or anyone else, would. i think i do feel a J is a bit more likely for him than you do though.

[CrackerZack]

I'd battle with you if you weren't right.

The only thing I would argue is that the average party poker player has no concept of a "protected" pot and doesn't realize they can't bluff the all-in player out.

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you're beat by a J

I don't. Wouldn't you expect to see turn action for the Jack and flop action from a draw trying to move you off and overpair?


[/ QUOTE ]

Notice i also had in there if unsure, call it. I probably would call it out because of the point you made. Along with the fact i havent seen how this player plays trips or sets. Player knowledge helps. Would this player play a draw/overcards/9 like this?

Many times trips/sets will wait for the turn. Although, lately, ive seen an increasing trend of playing fast with these hands.

If he bets into you on the turn, you can call since it's basically HU, although, with a draw out there, i think a raise is better. Folding to a 3 bet.

I think this is a better response than my original. /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

b

[bernie]

Im thinking more the typical type of player described that sees that many flops, yet not described as maniacal. Many wont make a move like this with an all in player possible. I didnt say it wasnt a good spot for a semi bluff, but is this player capable of doing it? I dont know. Many players dont put the guy allin unless they have something. Which is why they miss bets in the sidepots alot of the time.

b

[bernie]

But you can make your chances of winning better if you get the better hand out regardless of the all in player. What if the all in only has a 9 and you have say...QT. Getting the KK out, if he's capable of folding here to this move, gives you that many more outs to win. Although, it's a stronger play to do this on the turn. Since that play screams the 'wake up and bet' move. But wouldnt the average player in this spot play his hand faster with the all in? maybe, maybe not. ive seen players who normally check to the turn with trips play faster in this spot.

I had a hand where i raised with a draw after a guy went all in. Got a caller or 2, Semi'd the turn, got 1 caller. Missed my draw, bluffed the river and won a bigger pot than the all in got. The guy who folded wasnt too happy to see i bumped him off his hand on the end. But he was also thinking there's no need to call me to see what i have since ill have to show for the all in pot. No reason to keep me honest. Some people give more respect to bets with an all in player involved.

The players prime for this are the types who will check it down after the player is all in. They generally will only bet with a great hand so that's what theyll likely put you on sometimes when you bet.

b

[bernie]

If he's drawing, he isnt paying an extra bet on the river when he misses. That's a good reason to raise the turn.

If he calls the turn raise then bets out on the river, you're usually beat and can probably fold. What's he putting you on that he thinks you wont call here? Unless he's known to bluff here. But it's great if a K hits the river and he does this. btw...with the pot size, if unsure, a call of a single bet on the river isnt that bad. i may do it just out of curiosity of what he'd play this way with. That player knowledge thing.

b

[cwl]

[ QUOTE ]
If he's drawing, he isnt paying an extra bet on the river when he misses. That's a good reason to raise the turn.


[/ QUOTE ]

a lot of the time in this sort of spot the guy with the draw will bluff at the river anyway so you end up making the same. in this particular case it doesnt really make any sense for him to bluff the river with the all in player but taking that a step further it doesnt make that much sense for him to semi-bluff the turn on a draw with the all in player either. i do agree with your point though. against a draw there is a decent chance he misses a bet. i just dont think that this is worth enough in this situation to risk the many negatives that could come along with raising the turn here. the main thing i was trying to get across is that in many scenarios if you raise the turn you lose more money than you otherwise would.
- if he has a J and i raise the turn and get 3 bet i lose the pot equity that my 2 outer represents which is in fact close to 1 BB
- if he has some other goofy hand, admitedly very unlikely, and 3 bets me and i fold i have lost the whole pot which is horrible given how big it is.
- if he has a draw or a better made hand and calls my bet and bets out on the river when his draw hits or cause he feels better about his hand for whatever reason i think your stuck calling that bet so its cost you 3BB to get to showdown rather than 2.

i think its likely enough that he has a jack and will 3 bet you that that potential extra bet gained is not worth what you give up by raising. im just not at all a fan of getting myself into spots where im potentially folding an overpair and almost certainly at worst a 2 out hand in 16BB pots.

[Thomsen]

@ joe tall - i forgot sorry.

My mind screamed JACK !!!

2 reasons:

1 allin protects the pot
2 heraised so superquick that i felt he thougt we would go into a raisingwar and was happy about it....

I called anyway cause i would not believe it /images/graemlins/frown.gif

He had a jack

After the hand i wondered if i should have folded or perhaps better called and raised on the turn (and folded if threebet)

In general i have noticed that at 3/6 if I show strenght preflop, i hardly ever get raised unless i am behind.