When to let this nut flush draw go?

[Joe826]

Ugh. This hand was bothering me all yesterday night and when I woke up this morning so I decided to post it. Calculating these odds confused the hell out of me spur of the moment, that's not really happened to me before. Button and MP2 are both loose players but not normally this aggressive. I initially think MP2 might be on a flush draw as well but when he caps I know he's got something more then that. After the turn I was certain someone had the straight (I was pretty sure on the flop) and so I didn't bother calling the river even though the pot was so huge and I had top pair. When do you get away from this hand? When you have to cold-call two on the flop?

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. MP3 posts a blind of $3.
UTG calls, UTG+1 folds, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, MP3 (poster) checks, CO folds, Button calls, SB completes, Hero checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 4/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(6 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">SB bets</font>, Hero calls, UTG calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, <font color="CC3333">Button 3-bets</font>, SB folds, Hero calls, UTG folds, <font color="CC3333">MP2 caps</font>, Button calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (10 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero calls, <font color="CC3333">MP2 3-bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button caps</font>, Hero calls, MP2 calls.

River: (22 BB) T/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
Hero checks, <font color="CC3333">MP2 bets</font>, <font color="CC3333">Button raises</font>, Hero folds, MP2 calls.

Final Pot: 26 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 26 BB, between MP2 and Button.</font> &gt; <font color="white">Pot won by Button (26 BB).</font>

Results in white below: <font color="white">
MP2 shows 4d 6c (two pair, sixes and fours).
Button shows 8d 7c (straight, eight high).
Outcome: Button wins 26 BB. </font>

[Mike Gallo]

The button flopped a very vunerable nut straight.

I would have raised preflop.

I would have bet the flop and called all raises. I would have check called all raised on the turn and fold if I did not hit the flush.

[butters]

I'd play this the same way. You're in a bad spot position-wise, but I don't see where you can get away from this hand without seeing the river.

[tolbiny]

the sb bet out on the flop.
why would you raise from the bb preflop against players who will take their hands to far?

[Mike Gallo]

why would you raise from the bb preflop against players who will take their hands to far?

Exactly the reason why I will raise.

[Ed Miller]

Ok guys, this is the easiest part of limit hold 'em there is. For some reason there is an explosion of "can I fold my flush draw?" posts lately.

This the actual formula I use in real play to decide whether to fold a flush draw (two in my hand and two on the board):

1. Is the board paired? If no, go to "Put the money in"
2. Is the board doubled paired or does it contain trips? If no, go to "Put the money in"
3. So the board is double paired or contains trips, huh? Well, that sucks. Umm.. well, you might wanna fold unless the pot is huge or something.

Put the money in - PUT THE MONEY IN! WHAT ARE YOU THINKING ABOUT FOLDING FOR??? /images/graemlins/smile.gif

That's basically it. It's right well over 90% of the time. I don't worry about the other small % of the time. It's close enough.

[Joe Tall]

Besides preflop, well played.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Joe826]

I'm really glad I ended up posting this hand because I realized my thinking was pretty screwed up. At the time I knew I couldn't get away from this hand, but after the fact I was questioning whether or not the pot was laying me proper odds on the flop when I was 1 to 4 to make the flush on the turn and there were only 2 players in raising like crazy. The part that slipped my mind was the fact that i'm 1 to 2 to make this by the river and two opponents capping the turn would still make it a profitable call. I can't believe I missed that. Anyways I'm glad I ended up doing the right thing heh. Thanks for the comments everyone.

Also, I think I might need to examine my standards for raising in the blinds. I usually only raise in the blinds with very good hands (which I don't really consider ATs to be). I'm pretty sure this thinking comes from Jones' WLLH. What things do you take into consideration when deciding whether or not to raise a hand out of the blinds?

Thanks again guys.

[Mike Gallo]

For some reason there is an explosion of "can I fold my flush draw?" posts lately.

I noticed this myself. I wonder if it has anything to do with the " Why dont __________ play poker?" posts /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[arkady]

Why am I the only one that thinks this should have been let go on the flop, given the position and the aggressiveness of the two players.

The outs are there, but this is just ugly.

[harboral]

Let it go when you don't hit the river. Easy poker 101.

[mikeyvegas]

The only reason to let this hand go is if you can't handle the variance of drawing to a flush. And if that’s the case, poker is not the game for you. You are drawing to the nut flush and you have two other players in the hand with you willing to cap the flop and turn, as well as go 2 bets more on the river. You can't ask for a more beautiful situation.

[bernie]

Ed and MG pretty much covered it.

But i want to specify something. Many players will not fold the river here the way you did. They will talk themselves into calling regardless of their reads. Even if it was as good as the read you had. Theyll become pot enamored. I think many of your opponents in this hand may not have done it. Which puts you well above them already. Nice job.

To echo ED here, now if some of these posts will stop trying to find reasons to fold their flush draws, and not just nut flush draws...

b

[blackaces13]

[ QUOTE ]
Why am I the only one that thinks this should have been let go on the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Because its totally wrong. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif