Correct to call these bets?

[Saborion]

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (9 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif. Hero posts a blind of $3.
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, MP1 calls, MP2 folds, MP3 calls, Hero (poster) checks, Button folds, SB folds, BB checks.

Flop: (5.33 SB) 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 6/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="blue">(5 players) </font>
BB checks, <font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 calls, Hero calls, BB folds.

Turn: (4.66 BB) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(4 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 calls, MP3 folds, Hero calls.

River: (7.66 BB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="blue">(3 players) </font>
<font color="CC3333">UTG+1 bets</font>, MP1 folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 8.66 BB
<font color="#990066">Main Pot: 7.66 BB, won by UTG+1.</font>
<font color="#990066">Pot 2: 1 BB, overbet by UTG+1.</font>

[Huskiez]

Do you figure the 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif as an out? When it is your turn to act, the pot is 8.33 SB. Playing this with one card to come, you are 14.4:1 against if 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif is not an out, and 10.5:1 against if it is. I would probably fold, seeing as with two callers one of them easily could have a flush draw.

On the turn, you now have an outside straight draw, with 6 pretty clean outs (AT would beat you if a J rivered), and 2 questionable outs (7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and J /images/graemlins/heart.gif). The pot is offering 6.66 BB. Your 6 outer is 6.7:1 against. Definitely call the turn.

[MarkD]

No on the flop and yes on the turn (close).

On the flop you are getting 8.33-1 on a 10.5-1 shot. Also, one of your gutshot outs is bad because of the flush. Just save your bets for a better spot. If the board was rainbow I'd probably call here because of the expectation of future bets that I could win.

The turn is something sklansky has talked about in the past. Your early mistakes forces you to call here.

[James Boston]

This pot is too small to be chasing a gut-shot, not the mention the 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif may make you the second best hand.

[balkii]

I am a bit of a loose fish but I definitely call on the flop. Because of your position, you will have an easy time making up the implied odds if you hit your straight. And a 9 or T might give you the best hand as well.

[MarkD]

Are you assuming the 7 :hearts: is good for you? If not it's required that you hit your hand on the turn and it stands up and you collect over 6 small bets to make the flop call correct.

Why not just fold which is at worst a neutral EV decision here and wait for a better opportunity to put your money in?

I think it would be a good exercise to try and defend the flop call.

[balkii]

MarkD,

Yes I am assuming that a good percentage of the time, the 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif will be a good card for my hand. Its obviously not the cleanest out as it could give someone a flush, or at the least a redraw to a flush.

Suppose the board was rainbow. That gives you 4 clean outs to the nuts. You are getting 8.33:1, and of course the odds we need for a gutshot draw ar 10.75:1. So we need ~ 2.5 SMALL bets to justify calling. That 1 and 1/4 big bets. I dont know how to figure how much you would earn on average but I think 2BBs each time would be a low estimate.

Now of course the 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif is a slightly troublesome out, but if we dont count that as an out, we need 15:1 to call. So we need 6 and 2/3 Sbs or a little over 3 BBs to call. This should be very easy to make back acting last after 3 players on the turn and river.

So clearly we have the odds to call even if you have only 3 outs. Add in the fact that the 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif will frequently be a great card for your hand, AND the times you can win hitting a 9 or a T, and this is a clear call, and it's not close.

[ QUOTE ]
Why not just fold which is at worst a neutral EV decision here and wait for a better opportunity to put your money in?



[/ QUOTE ]

I see the flop ~22% of hands. Why should I keep waiting? I'm in a hand and there is money to be made...