what's the best way to play this river card?

[mike l.]

40-80 heaven. i have KcQc in the sb. utg somewhat fishish limps, another fish limps, button fish limps, the bb is on complete tilt so i know he will raise, so i just call in the sb, bb raises and now utg reraises, the fish limpers fold and i again just call, bb caps it, we both call. 3 of us.

the flop is Kh7h3h. i bet, bb folds, utg thinks and calls.

the turn is Ks. i bet, utg thinks and thinks and calls.

river is 8h. what's my play and why?

[Manzanita]

mike,

Ordinarily I would check the river in this situation since I can't see many hands (the exception would be something like KJ) that you could beat calling a bet. But if UTG is really fishy you may be able to bet for value here and get called by a hand like 99 or A7. A raise from UTG is unlikely since it is improbable that he has a big heart (given his reluctance to play post-flop).

-- Manzanita

[AJo Go All In]

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utg somewhat fishish

[/ QUOTE ]
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utg thinks

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[ QUOTE ]
utg thinks and thinks

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bet. if he had a heart good enough to raise you on the river with, he wouldn't have been thinking so much.

[Josh W]

Depends on what kind of fish UTG is.

It looks like he has an underpair, maybe with a heart. Did he look back at his cards? If he did, then check/call.

If he's going to bet 100% of the time you check, definitely check, and consider a checkraise if you think he'll fold 66h.

Really player dependant. Do you only to to Hollywood Park on the days that I don't????

J

[Gabe]

Yep, player dependent.

"Do you only to to Hollywood Park on the days that I don't????"

I'm starting to think you guys are really the same person. Like Clark Kent and Superman.

[Noo Yawk]

Hi Mike,

You bet. Because:
-These hands come up about once a year.
-Any small heart is calling.
-Any pocket pair higher than 7's is calling.
-The Q of hearts is probably calling but possibly raising.
-The A of hearts is raising.
-Any small boat is raising AT LEAST once.
-Anything else would be happy to get a free showdown on this board.
-Even a bluff is only going to give you one bet.
-If it get's checked behind, which is more likely than inducing a bluff, you'll be called bad names and have severe psycological problems for years to come. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[MarkD]

I think your post makes a strong argument for checking.

[Softrock]

Wasn't there recently a tribute to Clarkmeister regarding his advocacy of betting in this situation becase remarkably one gets called with worse hands? That said, I think you bet if there is any reasonable chance that you'd get a baby heart to fold. Nothing worse than having this sort of situation checked around only to have it taken down by the 3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif and then wondering if that player would have called a bet.

[Noo Yawk]

[ QUOTE ]
I think your post makes a strong argument for checking.

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Why? I'm saying that by betting you are very likely to get paid off and possibly raised, and by checking your very likely to get no action except from hands that would raise if you bet or an unlikely bluff that's going to fold to a raise anyway. If I had any type of hand to showdown here, I would love to see a free river, again with the exception of hands I'm raisng.
Checking is a terrible play, particularly on a board like this. People are always trying to get cute with hands like this. Remember that next time you see some dude saying to some other dude, "oh man, I thought you'd bet so I could check-raise."

[MarkD]

There is a four card flush on board and you have 3 kings. I'm not advocating check raising the river I'm advocating check/calling the river and I think the points you make in your posts add credence to the argument for checking.
[ QUOTE ]
-These hands come up about once a year.
-Any small heart is calling.
-Any pocket pair higher than 7's is calling.
-The Q of hearts is probably calling but possibly raising.
-The A of hearts is raising.
-Any small boat is raising AT LEAST once.
...
-Even a bluff is only going to give you one bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm saying that by betting you are very likely to get paid off and possibly raised

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Ok, so sometimes you have the best hand and get paid off, sometimes you have the worst hand and get raised. I think the majority of the time the only hand that will call you on this river that you beat is a worse set of trip kings and since you have 3 of a kind already the odds your opponent has the case king is a bit slim. Any other hand that calls you will most likely have a heart in it and you lose the single bet, or get raised and lose two bets).

Now, if you check sometimes it will get checked through. Of these times, sometimes you will have the best hand and sometimes you won't (baby flushes do check behind a very small percentage of the time). Other times you check and someone bluffs thinking that you don't have a heart and can't possibly call. Or that crappier set of trip kings will most likely bet after you check, so you don't lose that single bet too often.

Now, I think the key is that the times that you check and it gets checked behind you and you win against a hand that would have called your river bet are VERY slim. So by checking I don't think you lose very much at all, but you stand to lose a lot by betting without gaining much return. It's probably not too hard to write an equation for this river for the two plays.

Of course, if you misread the post and think that MikeL has a fullhouse on the river then I completely agree with your reasoning for betting the river.

[mike l.]

"Of course, if you misread the post and think that MikeL has a fullhouse on the river then I completely agree with your reasoning for betting the river."

yeah that's what i was thinking too. i think he misread my post.

[MarkD]

I think betting out here might be stronger if there were two opponents on the river as then it is more likely for that opponent holding the 3h to fold. Head's up I don't think I've many players that will make it to this river with a 3h in their hand and then fold.

[Noo Yawk]

I'm such a dick...I thought you had 4 kings. I'll go now /images/graemlins/crazy.gif.

[Noo Yawk]

Check for most of the reasons I stated you should bet quads.
Heads up there's a decent enough chance your hand is good, and it's only going to cost one more bet if it's not.

[MarkD]

I told you that you were right. /images/graemlins/cool.gif

[TimTimSalabim]

Limp reraise-- that's got AA written all over it, possibly QQ/JJ given the way he played post-flop. The question is, is one of them hearts? The problem is, if it is, he's certain to raise you. And are you prepared to fold to a raise? It's a tough one, but I like check-calling.

[mikelow]

This should be pretty easy. Bet. Most likely, UTG has a hand like Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and even then you might not be raised. Otherwise he doesn't have to have a heart. You might get 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif to fold if you bet with enough conviction.

[mikelow]

With the A/images/graemlins/heart.gif utg might have raised on the flop or even the turn.

[TimTimSalabim]

[ QUOTE ]
This should be pretty easy. Bet. Most likely, UTG has a hand like Q/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and even then you might not be raised. Otherwise he doesn't have to have a heart. You might get 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/spade.gif to fold if you bet with enough conviction.

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That's exactly why I don't like betting, because most likely you are beat, so even if he doesn't raise, there's no equity in betting. I don't think a 9 hearts is going to fold to a bet(or any heart for that matter).

Another reason I like check-calling is that you may induce him to represent the heart if he doesn't have it.

[mike l.]

"Another reason I like check-calling is that you may induce him to represent the heart if he doesn't have it."

good point. that's what i was thinking when i bet and he folded. i think i choked here.

[andyfox]

If you check, and he checks a small heart behind that he would have folded to your bet, you've cost yourself a big pot. If you bet, and he folds, you've cost yourself one bet.

[Dreamer]

I think its somewhat player dependant.
Isn`t it always /images/graemlins/wink.gif
Heads up with 10BB in the pot I might call with any flush because I think I may be shown a worse hand more than 1 in 10 times.
Also is the player super tricky, would he ever bluff re-raise if you bet the river.
Its a lot easier if you can feel safe in folding to a river raise.
Is the player a rock who would fold a small flush, the pot is pretty big with the pre-flop cap.

If the player will call any flush or could bluff re-raise or may bluff at the pot check/call, if he will fold a small flush then bet.

[mike l.]

"If you check, and he checks a small heart behind that he would have folded to your bet, you've cost yourself a big pot."

yes but who on earth will be in there with a small heart and then not call one last bet heads up when they make a flush on the end? nowadays, basically nobody. if they were in there still with a small heart then that's what they were drawing too, at least partially.

[MarkD]

I agree - I don't think anyone is folding a heart here.

[Rick Nebiolo]

mike,

a fish with a heart isn't going to fold, especially if he has played with you a bit. OTOH, a fish without a heart might bet or even raise figuring you are capable of folding a better hand with a scary board.

check-call the river and it doesn't seem that close to me.

~ Rick

[elindauer]

Hi Mike,

First thing's first. You can't bet. It would be a very odd type of player who is loose enough to get to this river with a single heart, but still tight enough to fold for one bet. It's particularly hard for people to fold after they improve on the river. You'll very rarely be called by a worse hand, and you'll frequently be called by a better hand. Once in a blue moon you'll get bluffed off the pot. Betting is right out.

Now, what to do if your opponent bets? Would he bet a mediocre heart and fold to a raise? There are some players that will, but they are rare. Rarely, when you sense weakness against just the right opponent, you could check-raise bluff.

How frequently will this player bet a hand that you can beat? Most players are capable of bluffing here, but what are the odds that he actually got to the river with a hand worse than yours? It's a tough call, but unless you know your opponent to be very passive, you should call a bet.

So, there you have it. Usually check, call. If your opponent is very passive, check, fold. If he's a tough player, capable of a thin-value-bet-fold-to-a-raise move, sometimes check-raise bluff. Never bet.