Just got pokertracker, play analysis

[arkady]

Hey guys,

I was and am having a terrible week at Absolute so I decided to get PokerTracker and perhaps share with you some stats so the more experienced people can lend a helpful hand. This is only based on 1,500 hands and the first 2000 or so I cannot get, but I had a very good run a month ago money wise and am now stuck in a hole I cant get out of. Anyway I wont bore you with the numerous bad beat stories, but here are some basic stats.

VP$IP: 18.06
VP$IP from SB: 25
Saw Flop: 24.91
Folded to BB steal: 66.67

Att. to steal blinds: 15.28%

went to SD: 28.65
Wont at SD: 58

Raised pre-flop: 5.78 (not sure why this is low, its normally almost 6.5, could be an obscure sample)

Aggression Numbers:
Flop: 2.27
Turn: 1.52
River: 1.67

Folded to river: 38.30


This is all 3/6, at a 9 table often not full...

Any feedback would be greatly appreciated and while I understand that the hand sample is small, I would probably have the same statistic for 5,000 hands since I havent varied my play much at AP.

P.S. Can anyone determine if this is tight, tight passive, tight aggressive...loose aggressive?

arkady

[Webster]

Well - you are certainly aggressive but raising pre-flop could be a little higher. Looks like good tight play to me!

[BugsBunny]

As a comparison here are my stats for Party 3/6. I added "won when saw flop". VPIP is about the same. Looks like I go to showdown more than you, and win at showdown less. But I also win a lot without showing down.

My aggression numbers are definitely higher than yours, and my PFR number is much higher (but I suspect it's higher than most peoples). The more I play the more I find that aggression pays. I also defend the BB more often, and I definitely attack the blinds more often.

These numbers are based on about 10K hands. And I'd have to say that so far I've been very successfull at 3/6 (with 2 small succesfull forays at 5/10 6 max). I should probably try to trim back the "went to showdown" number slightly, which should increase my "won at showdown" number, as long as I can find a way to do that without significantly affecting my "won when saw flop" number. I still have a tendency to push certain hands a bit too far and it's the leak I'm concentrating on at the moment.


VP$IP: 18.99
VP$IP from SB: 27.85
Saw Flop: 24.14
Folded to BB steal: 58.09

Att. to steal blinds: 30.67%

went to SD: 37.8%
Won at SD: 49.19%
Won when saw flop: 38.57%

Raised pre-flop: 10.56%

Aggression Numbers:
Flop: 3.04
Turn: 2.99
River: 1.95

Folded to river: 35.88

[uuDevil]

If you post your win% it might help to see if you're running bad. It should probably be in the range of 6-8% over the long run if you are a winning player.

[JDErickson]

Hey Ark,
Been playing with you a lot at AP 3/6. From what I can see you are just getting a bad run. You have been taking more than your share of suck out lately.

Just keep playing solid. It will turn around.

Jim

[arkady]

JD,

Oh man, that is like music to my ears...you noticing that.
Heh, well I shall do that then - but I am strongly considering moving to Party and I'll tell you why.

Over the past week, the same thing repeatedly happens. I get into an altercation with a semi-short stack, someone that before the river comes is all in. ALWAYS, with out a doubt I have the best hand - something to the extent of flopped str8s, flushes, TP/TK, etc. ALWAYS the short stack wins to a runner runner or miracle river catch. Its gotten to a point where I am thinking AP is engineering the cards so that the short stack survives longer. I know its absurd and I am the last person to cry foul play on an online site, but its gotten to a point of absurdity. Besides constantly crippling my bank roll it has instilled fear into me and I am now afraid to get involved with anyone who has low money. However everyone on AP thinks buying in for 30 then hitting and running is the best idea in the world.

Ugh, I dunno.

JD, whats your name there?

[arkady]

Wow, you are indeed far more aggressive. In fact, compared to you I am just a little passive elephant.

[arkady]

where can I find that statistic?

btw, my: won when saw flop is: 30.97%...

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
where can I find that statistic?

btw, my: won when saw flop is: 30.97%...


[/ QUOTE ]
W$SF seems plenty high.

win% is hidden in plain sight /images/graemlins/wink.gif

General Info tab, with your screen name selected (left panel), look at the bottom of of the screen where the starting hands are listed-- there is a column labelled "Win %". The bottom row, labelled "Totals" will have your total win % for all hands.

[arkady]

oh yeah, there it is....9.54 win %.

when u say the w$sf is plenty high, i presume high enough - because i noticed people's is somewhere in the mid or high 30s.

[uuDevil]

Hmmmm, keep in mind I'm no expert, but I don't see anything wrong with the individual numbers. Just looking at these, I would think you were crushing the game. So you must be winning small pots and losing big ones. This would be consistent with what JDErickson is saying.

However, the numbers don't seem consistent to me. Are you sure these are all overall numbers and some not just for a single session or something like that? It seems like the following should be true:

W$SF=win%/SF%=9.54/24.91=38.3%, not 30.97%. Or am I missing something? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[BugsBunny]

There's more than one way to play this game /images/graemlins/smile.gif And certain stats wil be different depending on your style of play.

If you're very aggressive then you're won when saw flop % is likely to be higher, but your won at showdown % is likely to be lower because your betting/raising a lot and making people laydown hands - but when they stay to the showdown they're more likely to have you beat.

If you're less aggressive but win a high enough % of showdowns then you're won when saw flop % doesn't need to be as high, as long as you don't take this to extremes (for example - shooting for 100% won at showdown is an extreme because you'll lay down too many hands). The trick is actually to find a happy medium to maximize your profit - which is the ultimate goal. Different, successfull, players can still play with different styles (although the best will change gears as needed depending on the opponents style).

[BugsBunny]

What about hands where there is no flop?

[uuDevil]

[ QUOTE ]
What about hands where there is no flop?

[/ QUOTE ]
Possible. When I look at my numbers there is a discrepency too, but only .5%-- and no call flops (when I raise) just about account for all of this difference.

But I don't see how no-flop hands could account for a difference of 38.3-30.97=7.33%. Does it really happen at 3/6 that you win 7.33/38.3=19% (almost 1/5 of your winners) without a flop?

[arkady]

does seem a bit high, but at AP the tables are smaller and sometimes we can be playing with as many as 5 ... perhaps that might explain it?

[uuDevil]

Ohhhh. If you are often playing short-handed, you'll have to disregard all my comments. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Near the top of the screen on the Summary tab, it tells you the average number of players per game in the database-- what is that number?

[arkady]

The average is 7.34 players.

Whats more disturbing is that the rake is $1,800+

Which is more than I actually made from the site, good lord.

[JDErickson]

How are you getting htese hands into PT? I didn't think AP was usported yet.

[arkady]

JD,

Pat just implemented it, download the new patch and AP is supported!

[ptrack pat]

Please note this is in beta test only, I didn't make it available for all PT users yet because there are still some kinks to work out, especially with the email importing. JD, email me and I can tell you how to get the patch if you want to import some Absolute hands.

[uuDevil]

Ok, 7.3 players may be a little low to be looking at these stats as representative of full table play, but hopefully not far off. (For my games, I have 8.8 players and 42% seeing the flop, w/ overall pfr%= 4.6%.)

So are your games overly tight or aggressive then? Again under the Summary tab, what are the SF% and pfr% for those 7.3 players?

[arkady]

37% saw the flop, cant tell how aggressive they are - dont see the raising stat.

[uuDevil]

The overall pfr% is at the bottom of the Summary tab window, below the list of players, along the row that says "XXX Unique Players" and in the second to last column (next to VP$IP).

[arkady]

Ahh, looks like

VP$IP: 32
PFR: 6.38

[uuDevil]

Arkady,

Soooo, summarizing this long and winding thread (based on 1500 hands, a VERY small sample):

SF= 24.9%
VP$IP= 18.1%
pfr%= 5.78%
win%= 9.54%
W$SF= 30.97%
WSD= 28.65%
W$SD= 58%
Folded to River Bet= 38.3%

And your opponents:

# players at table= 7.34 players
SF= 37%
pfr%= 6.4% (This means 47%, almost 1/2 of flops are raised.)

Maybe someone with more experience can look at these numbers and spot a problem, but I don't see any big ones. You may just be running bad over this small period of time.

I do notice

1) Your opponents are more aggressive pf than you are.
2) You are playing in a fairly aggressive game (almost half the flops raised).
3) Though not short handed, your tables are not full.

I would suggest

1) Tightening up. Bluffing less. Avoiding marginal bets and raises. These suggestions come from the essay "Running Bad and What to Do About It" in Mason Malmuth's "Poker Essays, Vol. II." Especially if your opponents notice you are running bad, they may take more shots at you and make matters worse. If you tighten up you give them fewer opportunities to do this and you are stronger when they do. With half the flops being raised, your SF=25% may be too high (are you cold calling raises?).

2) Raising more pf. You do not want to be the least aggressive player in this game.

3) Finding a better game-- looser and more passive.

Anyway, that's the best I can do....

Hope it helps. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[sthief09]

I think his games are pretty loose for 5/10. my stats show that my opponents are around the same in number seeing the flop and most of my hands took place in .50/1 and 1/2 at empire. he's playing 3/6