Mirage 20-40: Overpair JJ on a 3-flush flop and plenty of action

[Dynasty]

This Mirage 20-40 game wasn't very good but I stayed in it for a while since I was winning. The weakest player at the table is on my immediate left. He's playing far too many hands and calling with them too far. But, he's made a few big hands and played them aggressively.

The hand:

I'm UTG with J/images/graemlins/spade.gifJ/images/graemlins/heart.gif and raise. The weak, but aggressive with a hand, player on my immediate left cold calls. Any hand he'd play for one bet is certainly playable for two bets as well. It's folded to the Cutoff who also calls. The Big Blind, a good tight-aggressive opponent, calls as well. Four players see the flop for two bets each.

The flop is: 5/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/club.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif

The Big Blind bets out. I raise. Weak but aggressive player on my left 3-bets. Cutoff folds Big Blind calls two bets cold. I call. Three players see the turn. 8.75 big bets in the pot.

The turn is: 5/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/club.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Big Blind checks. I bet. Weak/aggressive player raises. Big Blind calls two more bets. I call. Three players see the river. 14.75 big bets in the pot.

The river is: 5/images/graemlins/club.gif4/images/graemlins/club.gif3/images/graemlins/club.gif5/images/graemlins/heart.gif2/images/graemlins/heart.gif

Big Blind checks. I check. Weak/aggressive player bets.

If the Big Blind calls the river bet, what do you do? What if the Big Blind folds?

I'll assume that if the Big Blind were to raise the river, everyone would agree folding is the play.

[elysium]

hi dynasty
you can fold this on the flop when the weak 3 bets. you cannot improve to beat him, and there is an over-caller who may improve to beat you both. there's nothing wrong with raising and folding to a 3 bet in this situation. you cannot possibly win this hand.

[sleepyjoeyt]

is this a serious response?

"You cannot improve to beat him"????????

I'm pretty sure running jacks would make him a winner.

If it's raised to Dynasty on the river, then he can pretty safely fold. But (in my opinion) it is not a CLEAR fold anywhere else in the hand.

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a middle pocket pair out there, trying to drive the jacks out.

[Jeff V]

[ QUOTE ]
He's playing far too many hands and calling with them too far.

[/ QUOTE ]
He hasn't called once here though, and I cant see how you can win. I probably would've folded on the turn raise and cold call by the bb. Even if he was jamming 6x6c, or any A w/ a club he got there.

[Daggs911]

Unless BB raises, I think you have to call.

You're going to have 16.75 to 1 or 15.75 to 1 depending on whether the BB calls. It is certainly possible for the weak-agressive player to have a hand like 77 or 88 with a club, and the tight-aggressive player to have KJ or KQ with a club. Not likely, but enough of a possibility IMO to make the crying call.

[andyfox]

"This Mirage 20-40 game wasn't very good but I stayed in it for a while since I was winning. The weakest player at the table is on my immediate left."

Yecch!


I'm UTG with J /images/graemlins/spade.gifJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif . . .Fourr players see the flop for two bets each. . . . The flop is: 5 /images/graemlins/club.gif4 /images/graemlins/club.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif

Yecch!!

I fold right then and there.

I suppose, on the river, in answer to your two questions, I would call and call. Yecch.

[LarsVegas]

"This Mirage 20-40 game wasn't very good..."

Dynasty, since you give us the option of over-calling the river here, indicating that there is a possibility this might be an EV+ play (judging by your tendency to frequently post winning, often somewhat spectacular hands, I wouldn't be surprised if this is excactly what you did and won), I would love to hear your idea of what a good game is like in Vegas. I haven't been there yet, and by the sound of this, I am very tempted to say "unfortunately".

My other solution to this post is that the Jacks was played by an opponent by yours, you bluff-bet a lower pocket pair on the river, got called by a worse hand by BB and had the SB overcall you here with the jacks.

lars

[Mikey]

I think I would have mucked this on on the flop. I let everyone else continue playing this hand, they are much more competitive than I am.

You are protecting a phantom hand.

[MRBAA]

BBs play is consistent with AK with A or K of clubs. Or maybe he has 77, 88, 99 10-10.

Weak player must have a flush or a set to be pounding like this, no? I'd probably fold to the turn raise. If the bb overcalls, Imight overcall hoping he has an overpair I can beat. But if he raises, I'm thinking he had an ace and just made a str8.

[Gabe]

"Big Blind checks. I check. Weak/aggressive player bets."

"Weak/aggressive?"

????????????????????

[Diplomat]

Hi Dynasty,

I think you have enough to fold the river if the big blind calls. Hell, I'm not sure you have enough to call the river if the big blind folds. The weak player has done everything he can to say "overpair no good." Generally speaking, weak opponents are honest in their actions (although not always -- what do you know about this opponent?).

Obviously I would fold the river if the big blind raises.

I would seriously consider folding the flop when the big blind bets, although his play could easily be something like A/images/graemlins/club.gif Kx or 6/images/graemlins/club.gif6x. It may be weak/tight to fold the flop, but I think that's what I'd do.

Side note: This hand reminded me of a cardplayer article by Roy Cooke that was intensely discussed here about a year ago. I think he folded red aces or something similar for a bet on an all-spade flop when there were several players seeing the flop. I'm not sure if it applies here, but it just popped into my head when I read your post.

-Diplomat

[leon]

Crying call if BB folds, fold if he calls. I have trouble putting BB on a hand you can beat if he calls, making an overcall ugly.

Leon

[astroglide]

i really don't get why lots of replies are wanting to fold jacks out of turn on a 345 mono flop. it is still highly likely that you have the best hand.

while the big blind looks like he's colding along with the ace of clubs, it would seem strange of him to not lead the river with his raise-happy friend with the intention of getting your overpair to call in-between rather than checkraise. he can 3bet if he's feeling really randy.

in a real game i think i could fold this one on the river if the bb calls...unless i think he has 77 with the 7 of clubs.

[lil']

I'm surprised so many people are ready to ditch this hand on the flop before anything even happens. Against a big field you can seriously think about tossing it. Against 2 opponents, you have to consider sticking around. If the BB bets into me, I would be raising it much of the time.

On the turn, I would be giving the weak player credit for a hand, but you now have odds to draw to a 4 outer for the full house, so you can't fold here.

On the river, I'm folding if BB calls. If he doesn't call, I think I might still fold, since he's a weak player, and weak players don't put that many raises in without the goods.

[Vehn]

If I bet the turn like you did it would be with the intention of folding to a raise. Frankly these types of turn bets don't really accomplish anything.

[SinCityGuy]

I probably would have folded the flop after 3 bets, but I tend to be overly weak/tight at times. After you get raised on the turn, you've got more than the requisite 11-1 to call on your 4-outer. I suspect that your weak/aggressive buddy to the left flopped a non-nut flush (perhaps something like JTs or QJs), and the BB probably has one high club (ace or king). I suppose it's also possible for either of them to have 33 or 44 (55 is very unlikely, but remotely possible).

If BB calls the river, then you can be 100% certain that at least one of these guys has a flush or a set, and you can safely fold. If BB folds the river, then you need to be able to beat weak/aggressive more than 1 out of 16 times to call. What holding could he have played this far in this manner that your JJ would beat?

[tpir90036]

i read weak/aggressive as:
"very predictable. aggressive if he has a real hand. otherwise, doesn't bluff a lot and is easy to move off of marginal hands."

[SA125]

I'm glad to see Andy say that. I think I sometimes give up on big pairs too easily on flops like that against a few callers. Especially those who called 2 cold.

Most weak players love those Ax, suited or not, and they could be sitting with a 5, 6, 7 etc. The Ac bangs away and ends up pairing up or back dooring like here.

I think J's holding up here is the exception rather than the rule. I don't know the math of how many times it has to be good to be profitable etc. This just seems like it's going uphill and I try to avoid that.

[Dynasty]

My river decision ended up being really easy. After WAP bet, the Big Blind raised. So, I folded.

If the Big Blind had only called, I would have folded anyway. I was concerned enough about him having the Ac for a straight that overcalling seemed like a bad play. If the Big Blind had folded, I think I would have called.

After my fold, the action got even hotter. The WAP 3-bet, the Big Blind 4-bet, the WAP 5-bet, and then the Big Blind made it 6 bets with the WAP finally just calling.

The Big Blind showed 5/images/graemlins/spade.gif5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif for quads. The WAP showed T/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif for a ten-high flush.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
"Big Blind checks. I check. Weak/aggressive player bets."

"Weak/aggressive?"

????????????????????

[/ QUOTE ]

A characteristic of a weak-aggressive player is to 5-bet a ten-high flush on the river with a paired board.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I probably would've folded on the turn raise and cold call by the bb.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think you can fold on the turn here. You should usually assume you have 4 clean outs (two Jacks and two 5's). I think players often forget that the 5's are very likely to be outs.

I'm glad I didn't catch a Jack.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
(judging by your tendency to frequently post winning, often somewhat spectacular hands, I wouldn't be surprised if this is excactly what you did and won

[/ QUOTE ]

I got accused of posting only winning hands over a year ago and have been concious not to do it. I think you'll find many losing hands in the archives. (The recent QQ hand doesn't count since it was only meant to be a story)

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Frankly these types of turn bets don't really accomplish anything.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's essentially a stop and go with what is likely to be the best hand.

[Gabe]

And you guys are telling me how much better you think the LA games are. I quess the grass is always greener.

[Jeff V]

Hmmph. Good point. As I didn't think of the 5's at first. FWIW glad you missed too.

[SA125]

"I think players often forget that the 5's are very likely to be outs"

With that flop, I think any one of those cards pairing on the turn are very likely to hurt rather than help. I saw the results but said in my first response that 5, 6 or 7 could easily be out there.

Most weak players would rather throw their first born away before Ax, especially suited.

Good fold.

[Clarkmeister]

[ QUOTE ]
And you guys are telling me how much better you think the LA games are. I quess the grass is always greener.

[/ QUOTE ]

I stand by my statement that the Commerce 40-80 is the best game on the planet.

[Mikey]

You should have mucked this hand on the flop.

Don't you see why?

Why did you continue putting chips in this hand past the flop.

[Luke]

Dynasty,

I'm interested in your feeling about your flop play now that you've had some time to reflect on it.

By stepping back and looking at the situation, the pot's not too big, if you're ahead it's probably not by much, you have the BB betting into you (the preflop raiser), 2 players left to act behind you, etc.

If you still think raising is right, how bad is folding?

Luke

[delroylindo]

what do you think of the BB's play?

i dont like it, especially considering the overaggressive limper and the fact that Dynasty most likely has a big club.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
You should have mucked this hand on the flop.

Don't you see why?

Why did you continue putting chips in this hand past the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

You need to get past this way of thinking. With only three opponents, one of whom was playing far too many hands and another who was defending his big blind, there's little reason to think JJ isn't the best hand even if it is vulnerable.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm interested in your feeling about your flop play now that you've had some time to reflect on it.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think raising is the best play. While it may not be possible to get any Ace to fold on a 5,4,3 flop (even one suit), you can get Kings, Queens, and clubs Ten and lower to fold under some pressure. You at least have to give them the best chance to fold as well as any 5, 4, or 3. JJ is a hand which should be good but is obviously vulnerable. That's the type of hand which calls for a raise.

[ QUOTE ]
how bad is folding?

[/ QUOTE ]

Folding what is likely to be the best hand in a four-handed pot has got to be very bad.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
what do you think of the BB's play?

i dont like it, especially considering the overaggressive limper and the fact that Dynasty most likely has a big club.

[/ QUOTE ]

If I were the Big Blind, I probably would have 4-bet the flop. However, calling a 3-bet with the intention of check-raising the turn seems very playable.

I'm sure making quads on the turn slowed him down. He may have been planning to check-raise but changed his plans since he didn't want to fold me out on the turn (which I would have if he had raised/3-bet).

How bad can his play be? He got three bets from both of us on the flop and two bets on the turn. If it wasn't a good line of play, at least it worked.

[Josh W]

You say that like there's only one, not seven to choose from /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Jonathan]

[ QUOTE ]
"This Mirage 20-40 game wasn't very good but I stayed in it for a while since I was winning. The weakest player at the table is on my immediate left."

Yecch!

________________
Andy, why is it Yecch! to have the weakest player on your
immediate left?

Thanks,
Jonathan

[RydenStoompala]

I'm calling unless the 3rd guy beats me to it. Weak-agressive is a perfect description of the player. I would never have thrown away the jacks on that flop, unless someone I really knew to only play hard with the nuts or a terrific semi-bluff hand raised it ahead of me. Against this opponent, you did the right things. Sounds like an OK game.

[andyfox]

The questions are, given the action, 1) how likely is it to be the best hand?; and, more importantly, 2) how likely is it to end up being the best hand when they award the pot? Aren't a lot of cards I'd like to see, with those pocket jacks, on the turn.

[andyfox]

Weak players tend to play too many hands and stay with them too long. I want them in front of me. The 2+2 types, i.e., tight, aggressive players, I want on my left, so I can handle the weakies before they get to them, and be last to act more often.

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Weak players tend to play too many hands and stay with them too long. I want them in front of me. The 2+2 types, i.e., tight, aggressive players, I want on my left, so I can handle the weakies before they get to them, and be last to act more often.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this is an easier way to say it. You want to have position on the opponents who you will be playing hands against. Those players are the weak players at the table who play too many hands and go too far with them. So, you want them on your right.

You don't need position on opponents who you will rarely be contesting pots against. Those are tight players. So, let them sit on your left.