Value Bets

[J.A.Sucker]

I played a hand last night that got me to thinking about thinking players. The game is 40-80...

A weak player limps in UTG, another tags along in MP, then it's rasied by the cutoff, and the SB calls, and I call in the BB with J9o. All the limpers call. 10 SB's in pot.

Flop is 7-8-3 rainbow. SB bets out. He's a decent player, and beats weak players. He also beats maniacs. However, people who mix up their play own him. He's a good player in good games, and a bad player in bad games. I have good results against him.

Anyway, I raise with my gut-shot and overcards. It was nice of the field to fold, and this made me happy.

The turn was a 2. SB checks, I bet. Go away, you flea! He calls. Dammit, flea!

The river is a J. SB checks. I bet. I think I have the best hand about 90% of the time here, but I didn't want him to call. Comments? Remember, I play with this player, and many of the others, quite often...

[astroglide]

i would love a call here. you probably have the best hand, and you get to show down defended crap / a raised gutshot.

[shemp]

So if he calls it's $80 bucks for about 2 seconds work -- or at least 90% of $80, which is, hrrmmm, lessee, i dunnoe, more than $50?

But you don't want him to see what you did? You could muck? It seems to me than if he calls with his 8 or whatever here, he confirms to himself that he had you until the river and you are a luck-bucket, and it doesn't hurt your Meta-Mojo, or whatever it is that concerns you. Maybe he'll even frown and say, "frickin river" -- that has to offset the information leakage.

[Ulysses]

Let's think about it slightly differently. SB has A3. Does Sucker want him to call?

[shemp]

I think I catch your drift -- it's been awhile since my probe, but isn't the last bet in 40/80 still 80?

I've had that same feeling many times. What else are you going to do if you want his money? You want to train him to fold to your river bets -- well, that's a bigger job than this, it might be more profitable to get him to fold to your turn bets anyway.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
it might be more profitable to get him to fold to your turn bets anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I suspect Sucker gets enough turn folds in this sequence from hands like A3 that he may well be better off not getting called and having to show his J9 here.

[shemp]

That train done left the station.

You guys want a lot. You want to get called on the turn and river by hands like A3o all the time when you can beat them, and you want them to fold on the turn when you trail them. Take his river bet, and after he whines, tell'm you put him on 96 and thought you were pushing the best hand. And you want to drag your pots without letting the table see your cards -- hey! So do I!

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
it might be more profitable to get him to fold to your turn bets anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Exactly. I suspect Sucker gets enough turn folds in this sequence from hands like A3 that he may well be better off not getting called and having to show his J9 here.

[/ QUOTE ]
how would u play differently if you were SB here against Sucker? would you play any different from SB until river? Assuming SB did indeed have A3.

Kenny

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
You want to get called on the turn and river by hands like A3o all the time when you can beat them, and you want them to fold on the turn when you trail them.

[/ QUOTE ]

That sounds just about right.

[Franchise (TTT)]

Just curious (and I'm not being a smartass this time), how would the answer to your question affect your play? It really shouldn't, correct?

So it's just a matter of which suggestion you're trying to send him via ESP, or fake tells I suppose.

[shemp]

I feel ya dawg.

When you bet the best hand on the river, I think you are 100% looking for a call; and I say that having felt what you dope-smokers out in CA are getting at. The flow of information may get more difficult to manage for you and your opponents, but that should accrue to the better poker player. His opponent gifting him $80 or 90% of $80 (ie. more than $50) on that hand should not cost him more than same in the future at the table, one hopes the opposite. And let's face it, dude did call the turn, so the train did done left

[mr1satzgruppe]

i love the way u played the hand would you have fired the last barrel on the river had you missed?

[Dreamer]

smells like he is calling with 9-10 or 5-6

I am sure your point is that the EV you get from the last bet will lose you something in the long run as you will have to cool down on some of these semi bluffs.
If your ability and respect get a lot of bad folds then not showing your hand may be worth it.
I would bet and hope for the call.

[J.A.Sucker]

Of course.

[J.A.Sucker]

There is no way that he has a straight here, IMO. People just don't checkraise the river very often. The 10% hand that I lose to is some sort of 2 pair hand, where he would call my river bet, feeling that I either am bluffing or I have him beaten. He may also think that I'll check a weak-ish 1 pair hand behind.

[J.A.Sucker]

Sure, it's 80 bucks for 2 seconds of work, but that's only 1 bet. Stealing the blinds preflop is almost this much. My point is that picking up a single bet here and there may not be worth as much as having the ability to control the opponents who you play with day in, day out.

When I win the most money is when my semibluffs win and when I don't have to make any difficult decisions. Mainly, this has to do with not being played back at very often. If I have to show down the J9o, it's possible that SOMEONE will see what I did, either this player or someone else, and they will be inclined to take these weapons away from me (or minimize their effectiveness). All this for a measly 80 bucks. Doesn't seem very worth it.

Here's another hand:

It's my last hand of the night, and I announced it to the table as such. I've been running well, so I have lots of money in front of me. I decide to play As5s UTG, which I normally don't do, but I wanted to play my last hand, and my image was great, as you'll see here.

There are 2 callers, then a good, very tight player raises in LP and the button, an outstanding player cold-calls. The BB calls and we're off to the races.

I flopped quite nicely: Jd 2s 9s. BB checks, I bet, the tight guy calls (he either has AK or flopped a set), and the button calls (he has a pocket pair, either 88 or TT). 3 way to the turn.

The turn: 4c. Sweet. More outs! I bet. Tight guy mucks his AK. Button thinks and decides to fold, likely 88. The button didn't play this hand well, and I think that I induced this with my image. He plays much worse when I'm in the pot firing away than he normally does.

[shemp]

[ QUOTE ]
My point is that picking up a single bet here and there may not be worth as much as having the ability to control the opponents who you play with day in, day out.

[/ QUOTE ]

They've been blessed with Free Will, so get used to picking up bets hither and thither. My point is that every synapse that fires along this line is being wasted -- and every synapse is sacred. You are going to get looked up when you bluff occasionally, if you didn't you wouldn't be bluffing enough -- that's the way to think about it. You will sometimes suckout when you semi-bluff, rejoice that you get paid, do not mourn these occasions on long winter evenings. The whole table will see. It is inevitable. The world will change. By adjusting to this Brave New World better than your opponents, you will conquer them.

The way to murder A3 in that hand was to check the turn and bet the river, this may come in handy. Knowing that this toolbox called a raise with A3, bet bottom into a large field, then didn't know what to do when a Sucker protected his hand, but rather felt the reverse implied pinch, then called the river when the likely bluff he could snap off got there on the end with a straight or pair -- these are good things. Knowing that your opponents may now be concerned that you will raise the flop dubiously is a good thing, even if it means you might have to wait for a hand. But Newsflash, apparently some already know it, else they wouldn't be calling you down with bottom pair here.