Bad play or bad beat?

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

$55 SNG, very early (blinds are 15/30), and I have a middle-ish stack (~1850). In in the BB with 85s. UTG limps, MP limps, SB limps, I check. (Pot=120)

Flop is J-8-5 with two clubs (I have diamonds), giving me bottom two pair against a possible club flush or straight draw.

SB checks, I bet 100. UTG folds. MP raises to 240. SB folds. I know MP pretty well, and I'm sure he'd have raised pre-flop with JJ, and 88 or 55 are very unlikely. So I don't think he has a set. Probably AJ, KJ, or he's semi-bluffing a club flush draw. In short, I'm pretty sure I have the best hand at this point.

I push in, and he calls with KJ. He hits another J at the river, and I'm out in 14th.

Should I have just called at the flop and pushed at the river (which was 2s)? I don't know. I think I played it pretty well, and he caught a five-outer. But I'd love to hear if others would have played it differently, and how I might have avoided this.

Comments?

Cris

[La Brujita]

I think you played it fine and your opponent played it poorly. One thing to consider, just as you know MP well, he probably knows you well and knows you are very aggressive and bluff a good bit. This hand might be an example of where it is good to have a tight image.

[Stagemusic]

At the risk of being branded as mean...Please explain further...

[ QUOTE ]
I push in, and he calls with KJ. He hits another J at the river, and I'm out in 14th.

Should I have just called at the flop and pushed at the river (which was 2s)?

[/ QUOTE ]

Was it a J or a 2? Doesn't really matter, I assume the J was on the turn and you just copied it down wrong...happens all the time to me too. /images/graemlins/grin.gif


In either event, I would have just called on the flop and if the J hit on the turn which I think is what happened I probably would have checked/folded. JMO.

[CrisBrown]

Hi Stage,

Sorry, I mistyped. Flop was J-8-5. Turn was 2s (should I have called pre-flop and pushed here?). River was the J.

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hi LaBrujita,

[ QUOTE ]
I think you played it fine and your opponent played it poorly. One thing to consider, just as you know MP well, he probably knows you well and knows you are very aggressive and bluff a good bit. This hand might be an example of where it is good to have a tight image.

[/ QUOTE ]

This may be true, but I really don't mind a call from KJ here, do I? Obviously I do if a K or another J hits -- as it did here -- but I'm a 3:1 favorite at the flop. (I ran it through twodimes.net.)

I dunno. I welcome more feedback.

Cris

[CrisBrown]

Hi All,

I think in retrospect, I should've called at the flop (when I was a 3:1 favorite), and pushed at the turn (when I was a 9:2 favorite). I'm not sure it would have had a different outcome, but I'd have been a bigger favorite when the money went in.

Cris

[triplc]

This was clearly a bad beat, but I think it brings up an interesting point, and that is, when to put all of your chips at risk.

Sure, it's possible that by calling he hits his J, or the club or straight draw that is showing on the board, but the odds are still with you that you will have the best hand after the turn. If the turn was scary, you can get away and still fight another day. On the nonscary turn, you can then push in and have less of a shot to get outdrawn.

I am beginning to believe that pushing in should be used when absolutely necessary, or when it is terribly compelling to do so. What would a reraise to 480 have done to him? Now, he's not guaranteed to see the 5th card, and you are representing a very strong hand.

I want to reiterate that having all your chips in as a 3-to-1 favorite is a good thing, but getting out drawn without having all your chips in play is a whole lot better. I hope I've conveyed myself well, otherwise I can already feel the flames...

[jaydoggie]

when i flop bottom two, i generally OVER bet the pot. i dont want anyone to see the next card cheap because your hand is good but still vulnerable.

i say push on the flop. why? you dont know hes holding KJ. you imagine a jack but it could be. J9, JT,QJ,KJ,AJ. now youre not gonna push when a 9,T,J,Q,K,A falls OR a club? theres too much second guessing. push it in when you KNOW youre ahead. or atleast when theres a strong possibility.

[jaydoggie]

i disagree. read my post. sure you push when it *isnt* a scare card. but reevaluate the scare cards. any club, any high card, and alot of low cards (straight possibilities)

if he wants to draw let him draw for all his chips. becuase once you check, youre giving up on the hand. hes going to bet his position and probably assume his hand is good anyway.

[heyrocker]

[ QUOTE ]
This may be true, but I really don't mind a call from KJ here, do I? Obviously I do if a K or another J hits -- as it did here -- but I'm a 3:1 favorite at the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have taken an attitude lately towards SNGs where if I'm confident that I'm a 2:1 or better favorite in the first 1-3 rounds I'm happy to push it in and let nature take its course. Take a situation where you have two pair or even tptk against someone you know has a four flush but nothing else. You face this a lot in lower limits where people love playing any two suited. I push with my two pair.

If he folds, fine. I got whatever was on the table.

If he calls my all in, then two times out of three I double and one time I lose (ignoring for the moment any other incidental wins/losses that might arise.) I'm going to get in the money the vast majority of the times I double which will more than make up for the time I lose. Plus some percentage of those times I won't actually lose, I'll just be left shortstacked, and since its early this can be built back up again. AND even if I lose, I only wasted ten minutes at the table rather than an hour. This all holds even more true for your example, where you're doubling 3 times out of 4.

In a multi its different, and this I have determined is one of my weaknesses in multis. I'm too anxious to take these chances and I'm too used to coasting after them. However in the SNGs you can play a lot more, its way less volatile, and I'm happy to let the odds work themselves out.

More considerations: The later it gets in the SNG the less and less likely I am to take these kinds of chances for all my chips. Also remember I'm playing a lower limit ($20 + $2) and I'm much more likely to get calls from weaker hands. I don't know what the situation is at your level. And of course if the hand you make is a monster instead of a good but possibly vulnerable hand like low two pair, the situation changes as well.

I guess thats a long winded way of saying, yeah, you shouldn't mind a call from KJ here.

[AJo Go All In]

wow cris you are so unlucky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[heyrocker]

[ QUOTE ]
if he wants to draw let him draw for all his chips. becuase once you check, youre giving up on the hand. hes going to bet his position and probably assume his hand is good anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

Jaydoggie has succintly said what it took me four paragraphs to say. The very very last thing in the world you want to let anyone do in this situation is get another card for free or for cheap.

[CrisBrown]

Hi jay,

I don't think it was a question of checking -- there was no way I was going to check bottom two pair vs. all of those draws -- but whether I should've pushed in vs. his reraise.

It's an interesting and difficult situation. If I simply call his reraise, there are so many cards at the flop that can run me off this hand, even if he doesn't have a better hand than mine at that point. In this situation, sure, the 2s was a raggy card that was obviously a blank, and if I'd waited until then to push, he might well have folded a mere top pair. On the other hand, he might not have.

Cris

[chesspain]

Let's play nice, everyone...I mean, don't make me stop this car!

[t_perkin]

Can you really that confidently say that he does not have 88 or 55?

This to me seems like an incredibly good read for this early in the tournament.

I have never come across a player who is willing to raise JJ in MP at this stage of a tournament who is not willing to even consider limping with 88 or 55.

or do you just mean it is unlikely because there are only two 8s and 5s left?

I am always wary of low 2pair. But they can knock down a lot of hands. If you are going to play them then you have to move in on the flop. You absolutely do not want to be giving any cards away, this is far to weak a hand. The list of scare cards is endless: Any club, 4, 7, 9, T, Q, A (I would not rate K as a big scare card here - lol). Basically, well over half the pack is going to casue you to have to be wary on the turn, especially in EP.

Get your money in and pray, or fold to his raise.


Tim

[ohkanada]

Don't play results.

Well played!

Ken Poklitar

[jaydoggie]

you must have misread what i typed.

by only calling youre nto making him pay. its just as good as checking. sure the turn was a 2. but what if it was an A? then would you moved in?
what if it was a Q? then would you have moved in, or check folded?
what if it was a club? would you have folded?

bet, calling. is letting him dictate the price of the turn. thus youre not making him pay for it.

there are FAR too many scare cards for his possible hands. however youre still a 2-1 or better favorite against MOST of his potential hands. the move is push. not call.

[Ulysses]

The reason to push here in these SNGs is because you'll get called by hands like KJ or a flush draw. Good hand, good push.

[triplc]

Yes, there are a lot of scare cards, but all of them can't help this guy. If he was drawing, Cris already forced him into a mistake by betting 100 out. He raises to 240...if you are convinced you have the best hand why not simply reraise to an amount which destroys the odds again...that doesn't have to be all-in, does it?

It turns out she was a huge favorite against KJ, but we don't know that he has KJ when he raises and that we are a huge favorite, so I'm not sure I want to risk all of my chips here. How about a raise to 600?

If the read is so great that you can say "he has KJ or AJ and I have him at 3-1", sure, push in. But do we ever get that great a read?

I'm not saying that pushing in was bad (I think it was a good option), but I am trying to win this pot now, and I think I can do it with the best hand without pushing in this early in the SnG when the money is still reasonable deep.

Cris hit the dream (good flop), nightmare (raised back), dream (called by a huge underdog), nightmare (bad beat) scenario. This hand had more twists than Chubby Checker, but I still think I would try to win this pot on the flop without risking all of my chips.

All we can do is try to make our opponents make mistakes. Her opponent made two big ones and still knocked her out of the tourney. Wouldn't it have been better to save a few of those chips for later, and give yourself another chance?

[t_perkin]

Yes you want to win it on the flop, and if not you want your opponent to make the biggeest mistake that he can.

Pushing all in here means calling is a bigger mistake then if he were to just call 600.

Plus, what do you do when one of those scare cards hits? bet out again? push in? fold?

none of them are great options. Make him pay as much as possible to draw.

tim

[Stoneii]

Without a shadow I'd push here just about every time. I don't normally say so definitively since I'm a learner but, in the vast majority of cases I am ahead here post flop. If however, I don't push I have to expect bigger cards to fall, then I haven't a clue how good the hand is any more and either have to lay down or make crying calls.

I like to give my opponents the chance to give me the pot there and then. 5 outer is just that!!

Unlucky

stoneii

[LetsRock]

I think it's pretty poor play by your opponent and he got lucky. Maybe a bigger flop bet (shove them in right away?)would have kept him from getting so interested? I think he got caught up with thinking he was best with your smallish bet, but somehow I doubt it would have made a difference. Only other option would have been to try for a check-raise (all-in) on the flop.

You can't fold really fold this hand with that flop, so I think you just caught some bad luck.

[jaydoggie]

Ok please explain what I am missing, cleary.

you are in the SB (always the first to act)
flop J-8-5.
you bet. he raises. you know your opponent will do this with a draw, or top pair.

possible holdinings:
AJ,KJ,QJ,JT
T9,67
two clubs.
88,55

now you arent completely sure what he's holding because his cards are still face down. so if you do not push here, lets imagine the turn comes; A,K,Q,T,9,4,J or a club. that is over half the deck. true not EVERY one of those cards ACTUALLY help his hand, however his cards are faced dwon and you put him on a hand above. now you get called, the turn falls, you lead. its one of half the cards in the deck that could improve him. check and let him bet, now you have to make a crying call, or lay it down. or lead out. the only reasonable bet in comparison to the pot is allin, IMO. the pot the pot is atleast 1700. you have 980.

please tell me why you reraise, get called and see a turn. if you raise 600. youve got 870 invested. (30 BB/100bet/140raise/600reraise) and 980 left in your stack.

someone please give me the reason NOT to push. im a 5$ player and starting to doubt my ability to even win at this stupid game, so i could easily be wrong.

[triplc]

[ QUOTE ]
please tell me why you reraise, get called and see a turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are assuming you are going to get called. Your opponent has three options, call, raise or fold. But let's assume that he does call my 600 raise.

OK, there are a ton of scare cards...so what. The only hand that gives him more than 9 outs is 67c. Suppose a scare card does come on the turn. The point is that it is still highly unlikely to have hit him. Less likely than if you let him see the next two cards. If it hits him, and you bet out, yes, you're dead. But you're dead if you push all-in and he calls and his card hits in the next two...Besides, we all know its the river that does us in every time /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

If he calls, and a scare card comes, it does make this situation tough, but there is a small chance that a scare card doesn't come, and there is a great chance that the scare card didn't hit him.

Please don't misinterpet me here. I think pushing in here was not a bad play; I think it was a very good play. Her opponent made a huge mistake by calling, and got bailed by luck. But I am starting to wonder about pushing all in when covered in a situation where I might be beaten (JJ, 88, 55) or I might be up against more than 5 outs. As you said, the cards are face down, and I don't know how much of a favorite I am at this point...or if I'm even a favorite. By raising not all-in with the best hand, I am forcing him into another mistake by calling, and I am giving myself an option to bail out with a healthy amount of chips if he reraises me back. This is still very early, and with 980 and the blinds at 15/30 I still have a lot of time to do damage with those chips.

I am no expert...I play $10 games and I don't play them spectacularly, but I've been drawn on enough times by big stacks (bigger than mine, anyway) to at least ponder other options before sliding the bar all the way to the right and committing all of my chips. Timid...perhaps. Once (hell, way more than once) bitten, twice shy.