Averages, ROI, Moving Up, etc.

[cagedman]

2+2,

First I would like to begin my post by apologizing for what is likely to be an annoyingly common question(s). I did a little searching but I wasn't that successful. Direct responses OR links to threads are both welcome and much appreciated.

I played my first hand of texas hold'em (and first hand of poker) 2 months ago. As a math graduate I was never the gambling type... I can't enjoy blackjack or slots because of the fact that simply being dealt cards is -EV.

In the last 2 months I've played about 200 or so $10+1 SNGs at party averaging about 4-5$ net profit per SNG. I'm either experiencing winners luck or I've got something of a nack for at least these low limit tables. (I read, reread and, rereread WLLTH by lee jones and THFAP by 2+2 before playing poker a second time).

My questions:

a) How long did it take you/does it normally take to become a winning player?

b) What are some average ROI %, net profit, etc for the varying limits at Party SNGs for top players... in other words the highest realistic figures for the varying limits.

c) Any advice on when is a good time to move up? Maybe a key ROI or ITM% that may suggest that it's time to try to move up? I'd like to move up to $30+3 and I don't have a desire to move up further. Would it make sense to maybe play 1 $10 game and 1 $30 game to 'feather in' the $30s?

d) I hear 20x buyin is a safe bankroll to try a limit... in other words... if you flush 20x buyin you're not ready... if you are ready you'll survive the very short term variance.. Do you agree?

e) For those that play $10+1 a lot.. say 10+ tourneys a day... how much are you cashing out per week?

I'd love to somehow suppliment my income in a semi-signifigant but realistic fashion...I have time to play about 100 tournaments a week.

I guess I'm trying to get an idea on realistic bounds for various limits and the distribution of difficulty moving up both within a limit and amoung limits.

[DarkKnight]

a) impossible to say
b) up thru 30+3 perhaps 50+5 you can ITM approaching 50%
some claim ROI's approaching 50% but a goal of 30% is more
realistic.
c) feathering in is how I change levels
d) 20x is a bit tight. You're the math major. What's the
risk of ruin for 50% ITM / 30% ROI with 20 buyins?
e) My goal is 100 per week, burn out can set in quickly.
But you should be able to maintain 30% ROI with a soild
strategy.

[cagedman]

Thank you very much for your thoughtful response. It's very helpful.

Anyone else have any anecdotes to throw in? Esp. the process of moving up from $10 SNG to $30 on Party.

-Ed

[alekhine8]

A few comments.

1) Considering your experience, if you are getting $4+ win rate per $10 SNG, that is obviously great. I also think thats a pretty reasonable win rate for a good, solid player. I think the max really possible (given suckouts, bad cards and the fact its a crapshoot at the end given the blinds) is probably pushing $5 or $6 at that level. You're doing great.

2) When I look at SNGs (or anything), ignore ROI. Its useless. Just look at your return/tournament. You are more concerned with your win rate over time, not as a percentage of your buy-in. This wont matter at the $10 vs $30 level, but it might at $30 vs $50 if you get there. You might reach a point where your ROI on $50s is lower, but in terms of win rate per tournament - it will be more than a $30 tournament. Thats what important. I hope that makes sense.

3) As far as moving up, Id have about 20-25 buyins. Of course, if you move up to the $30 level and get killed ten straight times, you should probably reconsider.

4) Another question seen frequently - difficulty as you move up. Someone put it best on another thread - it obviously gets tougher. The biggest change you will see is the percentage of complete morons will decrease. You are probably seeing 3-5 people drop in the first few levels that will push with middle pair or any kind of draw. Theres still a fair amount of people who will do this at the $30 level, but not near as many. If you have the bankroll and dont mind dropping back to $10s if you dont succeed, Id definitely give the $30s a shot.

5) Cashing-out: I would avoid cashing out if you can. I started playing last year and made my first real deposit in the summer ($50) and lost it. Made my second $50 deposit to Party and have built that into what Im playing with now. Im up about $3,500 and am obviously very happy about that (not bragging by any means - there are many here who have done much more than I) and cashed out about $3,000 of that leaving me with a current bankroll of $500.

If I could do it again, I would probably just keep the $3,500 in my bankroll. Im sitting here thinking - WOW - I could be playing 5/10, $100 SNGs or some good multi-table tournaments! But Im always 'starting over' and keep cashing out down to $400-$500. Assuming I was a winning player at those levels (I have no idea), I could be generating a pretty good weekly cashout amount with that kind of roll.

Obviously the choice of what do you with your winnings is up to you! Good luck!

[HUSKER'66]

[ QUOTE ]
I have time to play about 100 tournaments a week.


[/ QUOTE ]

First, maintain a more positive attitude! I have been devoting (sp?) a lot more time to 2 table SNG's on Stars, and have found the average tourny to take a little over an hour to play.(usually under an hour 30 mins)

This means that you have way too much time on your hands, or your busting out early in a higher % than you originally calculated.

Have you looked at your results in greater detail? Out of those 200 tournies that you have played how many 1 table, 2 table? How many 1st, 2nd's, 3rd's, 4th's, and out of the money finishes? Do you bust out early or make it to the final five or six on a fairly consistent basis?

Get a real grasp on these numbers and %'s and then think about moving up.

Play well, and we'll see you at the tables.

Husker