Thin river value bets

[CrackerZack]

I go back and forth on these. I tend to go through trends where I'm betting the river all the time and being shown better hands a lot more than I like so I slow down, then I start missing some thinner bets on the river that should be made. I'm in the latter now.

Party 5/10

Tables is semi-loose and semi-aggressive. I could probably find a better one but I'm lazy and the apprentice is on, and I'm not really paying any attention anyway, so who cares. Btw this hand was odd for this table, rarely more than 5 to a flop usually 3 or 4.

PF:
UTG limps, UTG+2 limps, MP limps, CO limps, I limp on the button with Js 9s, blinds join the fun. 7 to the flop for 7 SBs

Flop: 9d 7d 6h
SB checks, BB bets, UTGs fold, MP calls, CO raises, I 3-bet, BB and MP fold, CO calls. Heads up to the turn.

Turn: [9d 7d 6h] 2s (sexy)
CO checks, I bet, he calls.

River: [9d 7d 6h 2s] Kh
CO checks, I ......

Thoughts? Clear bet? Clear check?

[Mike Gallo]

Bet, he will call you if he has 88 78 89..you get the point.

[GuyOnTilt]

Hey Zack,

I'm pretty sure Sklansky would tell you to fold the flop, so I'm going to as well.

GoT

[CrackerZack]

If he told me to fold J9s after 4 limpers on the button, I'd put all his books I own on ebay.

[Mike Gallo]

I'm pretty sure Sklansky would tell you to fold the flop, so I'm going to as well.

Care to back this one up?

[bunky9590]

I'll fire again at that river Zack.
As long as a 4 str8 or the third flush card didn't hit on the river, its fire away.

If he has you beat god bless him, looks like 89 to me.

[Joe Tall]

I fire on the river. This is party so A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif8 /images/graemlins/club.gif will call.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Festus22]

That's the one I have more doubt in than the river bet. Routine without reads?

[CrackerZack]

If no 3-bet, how do I continue on from the flop?

[Festus22]

There was a similar post on the Mid/High Stakes forum.

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=554108&page=3&view=expand ed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1

Sklansky gave the raise advocators a "Shame on you". I'm trying to add a ton more aggression to my game but how is is too much? Maybe the S&M guys might be off base here. Calling is awful but would a fold be better?

[GuyOnTilt]

On the flop, not preflop.

GoT

[Joe Tall]

There was a similar post on the Mid/High Stakes forum.

There are major differences.

Can you tell me why?

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Mike Gallo]

Location location location...or position postion position

[Tosh]

I'm thinking CO had a nut flush draw here, my guess is A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I'd bet and expect to be called by a worse hand enough to make it worthwhile.

[Tosh]

If you think you're ahead a 3 bet is automatic.

[Joe Tall]

Not you, dummie!

I know, you know!


Peace,
Joe Tall

[MaxPower]

I admire your honesty.

The problem is that you are not paying attention so you don't have any idea what kind of player the CO is. You don't know what kind of hands he will raise the flop with and what he will call with on the river.

Let's assume he's typical. Does the typical opponent raise the flop and call the river with a hand you can beat 55% of the time. I going to go against the grain and say no. If he was raising a draw, he will almost never call the river unless the river paired him (with the possible exception of 98 and Ad6d).

In my experience when you are called you are almost always going to see at least top pair with a better kicker.

I know it is politically incorrect on these boards to not recommend a value bet, but I'm going to say you should check. This would be easier if you were paying attention and had some kind of read.

[brian0729]

Oh boy, the captain of the team and the teams top draft pick arguing already. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

I am on the captains side on this one. The flop comes draw heavy, and there are a gazillion overcards that you are not going to like coming on the turn and river and even some undercards you wont like much (8). Then there is a bet a call and a raise to you. I think a muck here is an easy play even from the button.

[MaxPower]

This is a totally different situation. Here Zack is on the Button. In that example he is in EP and being bet into by a very tight player with many left to act behind him.

[bernie]

id bet the river. i doubt the K changes anything.

he may either have a flush draw or just a pair. might be a pair of 9s, then it's just a matter of his kicker. which is hopefully just a connector.

dont know the player, so just guessing.

b

[CrackerZack]

Interesting, I missed that post. I'd have trouble getting away from that hand in that scenario. My scenario is drastically different though as I'm on the button, I've seen everyone initial action already. The blinds rarely have much of a hand to be in this and the BB (I have no read, but just party in general) doesn't need much of a hand to bet this flop.

Results:
I checked it through because I'm a wuss and he showed 6d4d for flopped bottom pair and flush draw. 14 outs x2 and he missed. /images/graemlins/smile.gif He made a comment in chat like "why didn't you bet the river so I didn't have to show that?" with a smiley. I think a bet is in order on the river though.

Edit: I'd like to think i wasn't lucky, but I may have been, but I really wasn't paying any attention to hands I wasn't in. Anyway, the C/O bet just stunk of free card raise attempt. A) he gets the button. B) there is a bet and a call already so he's getting 2-1. A 3-bet basically kicks him right in the ass as I'm knocking out all the people to pay him off and making him pay more. If the flush gets there on the river, due to the prescence of the straight draw I pay him off if anyone cares.

[Mike Gallo]

Not you, dummie!

/images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[bernie]

that post is a little different as the poster had a 'tight' player betting into him. this hand isnt so clear since there is no descriptions. but if you're going to play it, i'd raise it as you did.

b

[bernie]

many times a LP raiser can be a draw. maybe a free card play. a wider range of possible hands in general.

but...

[ QUOTE ]
The problem is that you are not paying attention so you don't have any idea what kind of player the CO is. You don't know what kind of hands he will raise the flop with and what he will call with on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is also a key that was left out.

btw...

alot of worse hands will call this. if an A hit the river, id be more likely to check.

b