Don't You Know What I Have?!

[ML4L]

Hey all,

What a great hand to talk about! I hope that some of the big guns (Ray, Fossilman, Ulysses, etc.) give their takes...

Party $1/$2 ($100) NLHE. There is one guy (BB) playing about 50% of his hands and playing them poorly, so the table is just basically taking turns stealing this guy's money. Most players seem to be decent (maybe a little loose preflop); nobody getting too out of line. I had just dragged a big pot on the previous hand and have $218 in front of me. Now, the hand...

Two limpers to me, and I raise to $11 on the button with Q /images/graemlins/spade.gifQ /images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB (seems OK; has me covered) calls, BB folds (darn!), MP (seems good; has $180) calls, LP (no read; has $100) calls. $46 in the pot, 4 to the flop, which comes:

3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB leads out for $7, MP raises to $25, I reraise to $65, SB calls, MP folds. $201 in the pot, heads-up. Turn comes:

6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB bets $45, I call. $291 in the pot. River comes:

4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB puts me all-in for my last $97. $386 in the pot.

Call or fold, and why? What about the other streets?

ML4L

[jrobb83]

I'm definately not a big gun, but I'll take a shot here.

I would definately call here. You're getting about 4-1 on the call, and I really don't see many hands that SB could have that beat you here. Most people would re-raise with AA or KK, so those hands are possible but not that likely. Would he call you pf with a hand that included a 3? It's possible, I guess, but a pretty weak call from someone you say is ok. The question is what could he have and lead out with a severe underbet on the flop, call a large raise and re-raise, then lead out for another underbet on the turn? The only hands that beat you are AA, KK, 33, 3x, 45, or 66. I think its more likely that he has an overpair that you can beat, possibly a flush draw. There are many more hands out there that you can beat than can beat you. Call.

[SpaceAce]

Without trying to guess your opponent's cards and without trying to justify why he might be playing this hand or that hand, here is an observation: When someone calls a fat raise on the flop then leads back into you on the turn, they usually have a big hand. He's not afraid of those threes. Assuming that he is not afraid of the threes because he knows you wouldn't be raising a three, ask yourself this: why does he also seem to not be afraid of a big pair?

SpaceAce

[spacemonkey]

I think you are probably behind here, though the last 4 was probably irrelevant. His play is a bit strange though as he called a raise and a reraise, implying he should have a monster, like a 3 in hand, or better. The natural play on the turn would be to checkraise or checkcall but he lead out instead, which seems a bit weak. Does he normally play his draws aggressively from early position?

Having said that you are getting great pot odds to call, in case he has an overpair worse than your or ?

One question is how does he see you - aggressive? tight? someone who can lay down a big hand? Or is he someone who doesn't make such observations?

[jrobb83]

[ QUOTE ]
why does he also seem to not be afraid of a big pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

The obvious answer to this question is that he has one himself, or has a 3. His large call on the flop implies he has a big hand. But if he just calls with his big hand, it means he intends to trap you with it, and if he were trying to trap you with it, why wouldn't he try to check-raise you on the turn? He could be hoping you play back at him by betting a small amount, true. But I would need a pretty good read on my opponent to give him credit for a big hand here. Would you really fold here? There's a lot of $$ in the pot already.

Ouch, my newbie brain hurts from all of this thinking! /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[SpaceAce]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
why does he also seem to not be afraid of a big pair?

[/ QUOTE ]

The obvious answer to this question is that he has one himself, or has a 3.

[/ QUOTE ]

My point exactly although I would add in the remote possibilities of 22 and 66. As for whether or not he would check the turn with a monster, I wouldn't put too much of my money on the line behind "He can't have a monster or he would have checked."

SpaceAce

[gavrilo]

and if he were trying to trap you with it, why wouldn't he try to check-raise you on the turn?

I think you made a good point here but fail to realize it. So many people assume that trapping means checking to you in hopes you bet and checkraising. I think this is clearly wrong.
He could very well have a huge hand and be betting it because of many reasons, he is scared that the player will check behind or he knows that many people like to trap and think that the only way to play a monster is by checkraising.
It's confusing to a player who thinks like because they say to themselves, well if he had a monster, he would obvioiusly go for the checkraise... think outside the box.
Another point to consider is this, if he reraises the flop, he is knocking out the other player probably, he doesn't want this, so he calls on the flop, but bad for him, other player folds, so his apparent trapping of another player in the hand backfired, thus he bets the turn.

Enough ramble.

Actually 1 more point i forgot to mention is, sometimes players aren't capable of checkraising monster hands, they just bet.

[symphonic]

I say he missed his club flush draw and is trying to buy the pot. Either that or he has a pair of 6's or 4's.

[theBruiser500]

I think you should fold on the turn. He led out on the flop then called a significant reraise. Then leading out into you on the turn (and this isn't a $2, or $4 lead out, it's enough to say he's pot committed). Some people might say it's weak to fold here, and maybe if I played with the same people all the time I'd call here so they know I can't be bluffed, but online I think you can fold this because people make the obvious play and this play signifies a whole lot of strength to me.

Sounds like A3, or 22, or 45. I wouldn't be surprised if he had 45 here seeing as he led out $7 on the flop, that's the type of bet someone would make with 45. Then calling your reraise with 45 is iffy, but he might have figured he was getting good odds (especially if MP calls too). Note that if he does have 45, he hits it on the turn and there's a good chance that he'd lead out with 45 there. Also, if he had a flush draw, I know I advocate folding the turn so you wouldn't see a river bet, but it would take a mighty courageous man to bluff 1/4 the pot or whatever with a busted flush draw when you show a lot of strength and are pot committed (I doubt he has a flush draw).

danny

[NLfool]

wow I know I may be getting different opinions and NL is so stylistic that any style can almost win if played well, but you made a very minimal raise preflop and as such any hand is game.

Most likely you are beat unless this guy is a really huge moron if you had made a bigger raise preflop this hand is much easier to play. If you are limping which an $11 raise may as well be in these internet games, 5x the blinds is nothing, you've got to be able to let this go. I've done the same with AA and you just gotta let it go if the flop comes coordinated enough.

I play this way differently if I'm a big stack vs a smallish stack. If I've got a big stack I make a decent raise and maybe someone with 99 or such calls because with QQ or JJ an overcard comes enough so that your hand becomes a tricky to play. If you're a small stack I try to get a bunch of callers with a min raise like 4 or 5x blinds so I gamble and get a stack like the big boys

[SlyAK]

I think you are behind here. I put your opponent on A3, or possibly 22. Maybe he has 33, for flopped quads. (I only say that because I flopped quad 3's yesterday!!) I dont think 66 is as likely because he called your large re-raise on the flop. I see a lot of players in .25/.50 (50 max) at TGC who will call substantial pre-flop raises with any ace or any pocket pair. I dont know if the play is much better at 1/2 party, (from some of the post I've seen I doubt it).

Even though I think you are behind I would probably call and pray here. He could have 99, TT, JJ... or something similar that you have beat, and considering the size of the pot, it would probably be worth a shot.

Sly

[Shaun]

[ QUOTE ]


3 /images/graemlins/heart.gif3 /images/graemlins/club.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

SB leads out for $7, MP raises to $25, I reraise to $65, SB calls, MP folds. $201 in the pot, heads-up. Turn comes:

6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB bets $45, I call. $291 in the pot. River comes:

4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

SB puts me all-in for my last $97. $386 in the pot.

Call or fold, and why? What about the other streets?

ML4L



[/ QUOTE ]

You must call here. You are getting roughly 4-1 on a call, and there are many hands he could have played this way. His bet on the turn does not have to mean a monster. The fact that you just called a 45$ bet on the turn, means that it is logical he'd bet a worse hand than queens on the river and think its good. Regardless though, you can't fold here.
I probably would have pushed in on the turn if I was going to call anyway, just in case he has a drawing hand I want him to pay for it. However, by just calling a relatively small bet on the turn you set him up to bet with all kinds of crap that you beat. I just hope he didn't have something like A5c...

[Krytemaster]

Don´t know where to start, but I must say that it was a very good hand to discuss!

The way to play this hand depends soooo much on the player and how he plays his very good hands and his draws.

His small $7-bet on the flop looks either as he has flopped a very good hand or as he is on a draw and wants to see the flop cheap.

There are actually quite a lot of players who will bet out a small bet on the flop in a raised pot with their draws to see the next card cheaply and it works sometimes.

MP player probably had a pocket pair and wanted to see if your raise preflop meant two high cards or a high pair - and he got his answer and mucked. SB, if he was an ok player must have realised this as well, and still bets into you on fourth street. It´s a very small bet and he could either do it to with a draw or a better hand than yours. It depends on how this player plays his draws resp. his made hands.

One thing that is sure is that he must either have a made hand - better than yours - or else he is on a draw. So, if you decide to go along with this hand on the turn I think you should raise all-in so that he must pay you off with a draw, because you can´t fold to a bet on the river with such good pot odds and tha chance that he might bet with his busted draw.

Just my thoughts...

[Namebejed7]

I haven't played the $100 games in a while as I cashed out most of my bankroll and am in a rebuilding process, but when I last played noone would call a $10 raise with any hand including a 5, so I don't think you lost to the straight. The small blinds bets in this hand look to me like he has a medium pocket pair and wants you out of the hand without risking too much money.

The only way I could see you losing this hand is if the SB cold-called preflop with AA or KK in order to induce Mr. 50% into the hand and get his money as well.

An all in into a huge pot after a couple of small bets on the turn and river usually signals to me that the opponent is almost positive he is beat but is praying you fold. I put the SB on either AKc or pocket Jacks, I don't think there's any other hand that could be played this way.

[theBruiser500]

Don't forget also, that he has a large and since he's playing the hand agressively and getting all his money in, it inceases the chances that you're beat.

I remain adament that you're beat.

danny

[Paul2432]

Others have made this point, but I think it bears repeating. The critical decision on this hand is the turn not the river. At this point I think you should either move all-in or fold for two reasons.

1) If you are ahead, your hand is not strong enough to slowplay.

2) If you are behind, you do not have odds to call.

The only time calling would be correct is if your were positive your opponent had a nearly dead worse hand and would continue betting if you call. In that case though, a river call would be automatic.

If you say the opponent is a good player, I suppose I would be inclined to do the opposite of my recent actions. If I had been folding a lot to turn and river bets I would call, but if I had made a lot of calls I would fold.

Paul

[SomeName]

Along this line of logic 45 of clubs would make alot of sense.

[Ulysses]

That's pretty much what I was going to say re: the turn. Good time to push or fold.

Once you get to the river I call most of the time getting 4:1 and hope to be shown JJ/TT etc. enough of the time.

[ML4L]

Hey all,

Thanks for all of the responses. There were too many to comment on each of them individually, but here are the two things that I think are key:

1) The most important thing is that the decision needed to be made on the turn, not the river. Because, if I am ahead on the turn, there are a number of river cards (e.g. an ace, a club) that can put me in a really tough spot. There isn't much money left to be bet. It's all-in or fold.

2) Given that I flat-called the turn, the probability of him betting a worse hand on the river is higher. If I were him and had JJ, I would definitely have reason to believe that it was good.

As for my general thoughts on the hand, when SB led out, my first thought was that he was on a draw. When MP raised, it was fairly obvious that he had an overpair, almost surely smaller than mine. So, I think the flop reraise is fairly straightforward. At this point, I put him most likely on a flush draw, maybe a straight draw, and still possibly a 3 or 44.

When the six came on the turn and he led out again, I really wasn't sure what to make of it. As someone mentioned, calling a reraise and then leading the turn is generally a sign of great strength. Was he slowplaying a 3 or 44? Did 54 just get there? On Party, many players like calling a flop raise with a draw, and then leading small at the turn, hoping not to be reraised and thus getting a cheap turn card. But is $45 small? At the time, I felt as though, if he had a flush draw and was looking for a cheap card, he would lead out smaller. In retrospect, I'm not as sure... And what about an overpair? Well, as the title of the post suggests, I thought that my flop reraise very narrowly defined my hand as a big pair. Would he still be in with 77-99? What about TT or JJ? I felt that, if he was, he would probably not lead the turn there. Looking back, I couldn't tell you why I just called there. It is very clearly a raise or fold situation. I'm still not sure which is better; I think that it's close...

On the river, the 4 was quite honestly a blank, but it sure didn't feel like it at the time. When he led out, I felt strongly that he either missed with clubs or had me beat. I really don't think that he had an overpair (although, as I mentioned, if he did, he would probably bet it).

I thought for a while and folded, which I should have done on the turn. Again, I felt that his betting on the turn, after I essentially showed him my hole cards on the flop, signaled that he had me beat. If he was messing around with a club draw, good for him. My opponent played for about another hour after that, and seemed fairly competent, which made me feel a little more certain that he had me beat (but maybe it should be the opposite...?).

Anyway, thanks for all of the responses. I'll play this type of hand differently next time...

ML4L