River Play

[jen]

1-1-2. Short-handed. Here were the players:

SB: Solid, tricky pro -- had me covered.
BB: Solid, tricky regular -- had me covered.
UTG: Weak player -- ~$200.
Button: Me -- ~$200.

UTG mucked. I had 2 /images/graemlins/spade.gif3 /images/graemlins/spade.gif and completed on the Button. SB made it $12 to go. BB called. I called.

Flop: [9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif]

Check-check-check.

Turn: [9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif] K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Check-check-check.

River: [9 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 7 /images/graemlins/heart.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif] K /images/graemlins/spade.gif T /images/graemlins/spade.gif

SB bet $16. BB called. What should my action have been here?

(SB's river bet was a value bet -- a bluff would have been bigger.)

[Ulysses]

First off, as I'm sure you're not surprised to hear from me, I'd want to be playing w/ much deeper stacks to think about making the call of that pre-flop raise.

Anyway, to the river.

Would SB re-raise you w/ less than a flush? If so, I'd just call.

Otherwise, I'd raise as much as you think he would call w/ two pair and hope he has something like 9T or JQ. 68 in the pot. If you make it 60 straight, that's 128 and 44 more to him. 3:1 probably gets you calls from those hands and maybe even a suspicious worse hand. So, something like that I think...

[Ulysses]

Regardless of my thoughts on the pre-flop call, I think this is a very interesting river decision. Anyone agree w/ my response? Anyone disagree? Anyone agree that it's interesting?

Even more interesting is how many tricky pros are playing in this "1-1-2" game w/ $200 stacks. Maybe jen should try some of the other games around here, as this one sounds just as tough as the LC 10-10-20 game.

[ML4L]

Hey jen,

[ QUOTE ]
Even more interesting is how many tricky pros are playing in this "1-1-2" game w/ $200 stacks. Maybe jen should try some of the other games around here, as this one sounds just as tough as the LC 10-10-20 game.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, the "1-1-2" trick only works once... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

As for the actual hand, I agree completely with Ulysses' reasoning. If reopening the betting is going to leave you with a tough decision (where you might end up either folding the best hand or having to pay off a bigger flush), I think that there's nothing wrong with an overcall. And, if you do raise, I like the ballpark that Ulysses suggests; seems like a very natural amount...

That Ulysses guy must play good, or something.

ML4L

[Paul2432]

I agree that the hand is interesting. I don't have much experience playing against tricky pros in short handed NL games, so take this with a grain of salt.

Doesn't Ciaffone recommend overbetting the pot in this kind of situation? That is try and sell your raise as a bluff. If you subscribe to this philosophy then I'd say raise to 100. The caller in between maybe changes the dynamics and makes the Ciaffone advice wrong. I don't know.

I do agree that the hand should be folded once the pot is raised pre-flop. This is especially so if you are unwilling to go all-in on a hand like this. When I play a speculative hand it is with the hope of making a hand strong enough to go all-in with.

Paul

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I do agree that the hand should be folded once the pot is raised pre-flop. This is especially so if you are unwilling to go all-in on a hand like this. When I play a speculative hand it is with the hope of making a hand strong enough to go all-in with.


[/ QUOTE ]

A lot of players here could stand to learn that. A lot of "speculative" hands are hands that you're likely to either win a little or go bust on.

In this case, jen has the perfect situation. She has the button. The flop and turn get checked through. And she backdoors her hand on the river. The perfect situation for her hand.

And now she's bet into and has a tough decision.

If she just calls, she'll make $24 + $32 = $56. So, calling $12 pre-flop w/ crap to win $56 in a near ideal situation. That's terrible.

Sure, sometimes you'll flop A45 (and hold up) v. AA, but the money's not nearly deep enough to be looking for that kind of nonsense.

[Vehn]

Before I read your response I thought "raise to 60 on the river", so hopefully someone who's actually good will tell us what the right answer is.

[theBruiser500]

This is a little besides the point, but...

Why no semibluff on the turn? It seems like a natural bet to make there. If you had semi bluffed, then when you hit you're hand would be more disguised and if they had big hands you'd get paid off for more money. Of course, the quality of this game is no doubt much higher quality than anything I'm accustomed to so many I'm way off base here.

danny

[Zeno]

Could the SB have A /images/graemlins/spade.gifK of other suit? Why no raise from the BB - why this cold call - ? BB has a straight? flush? I don't like any of this. It is a very interesting hand. You may have been smart checking behind twice but that ended up putting you to a decision on the river. Someone was surely going to bet the river right? Spade or not, Ace or not etc. Now the volcano is erupting and you are asking us how big the eruption is. I don't know, I wasn't there.

I would Call. That is a forum response. If I was actually there I may do something completely different. Something like this............ on the flop or maybe something like that...........on the turn................just to see what would happen and maybe an extra flair of this............ on the river.

Hope this helps.


The preflop call of the raise is cutting the edge thin in my opinion and also as Ulysses pointed out. But it is your money and cards and yes it was four handed poker so taking a wild stab with the button in your lap is fun sometimes.

-Zeno

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
But it is your money and cards and yes it was four handed poker so taking a wild stab with the button in you lap is fun sometimes.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, that is a completely different thing. In spots like this I will often play on the button in the right situations against the right guys as long as my hand is any two cards. I guess what I'm saying is, I'd never call a raise in this situation w/ 23s. But I may well call a raise w/ any two cards, which may just happen to be 23s. And I'll probably be doing something after the flop.

[Zeno]

[ QUOTE ]
And I'll probably be doing something after the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ditto! Thats the key - no fear. Until your broke that is. /images/graemlins/blush.gif Then you crawl home and lick the wounds. /images/graemlins/smirk.gif

[gaylord focker]

Tricky spot. If he was a really good player, I might lean towards just calling. When you raise the river here, he should be well aware of the fact you made a flush. Can he call with a worse hand here? I'm not sure, but I wouldnt like opening myself up to a reraise, because you will probably have to muck your hand if that happens. I think I would call and expect to show him the winner.

[Matt Flynn]

Jen,

Preflop I would fold for $1 and very much fold for $10 more. You won't hit often enough to make it worthwhile, and more important your hand requires extremely good card reading skills to avoid blowing chips when you hit bottom two, etc. This hand proves the point: you hit the runner-runner and yet only win $56 if you call, plus you may be losing. Not enough to support all the losses you'll take.

Once you got to the river, you need three conditions to raise. (1) someone will call fairly often with a lesser hand. (2) you will only get reraised if someone has a better hand. (3) good chance you're ahead.

Does this situation satisfy those conditions? Doubtful given the lineup you describe. You may well be against another small flush. Also, as you hesitate thinking about whether to raise, your opponents are deciding whether to steal. If they're good and are capable of slinging chips you want to just call to avoid getting blown off the pot.

If you do raise, raise less. Maybe $20.

Matt

[Boris]

you only have $190. You made your hand. move your whole stack in there.

[Your Mom]

No semibluff on the turn, because how would you like it if you got raised big? you'd have to fold even with a draw to the likely winner. Raise the river - make it twice the pot.

[acrylic48]

Interesting

[tewall]

SB was described as a solid, tricky pro. That makes it sould like he could raise with less than a flush.

Do you think a raise would likely be called? I think it's more likely it would be re-raised or folded.

[exeph]

It seems to me that, with your lowest-possible flush draw, you'd like to be able to have a chance to hit your hand as cheaply as possible and STILL be able to finish the hand cheaply. Drawbacks of the semi-bluff are an immediate raise on the turn and a big bet if a flush hits on the river; both of these will be tough to call. In general, when I'm semi-bluffing I want my potential hand to be strong enough to back with another big bet

[jen]

Sorry guys - I'm traveling (to a place where we're experiencing a "heat wave" at 35 degrees F...) and so not lurking on this board.

In any case, I called. SB showed KQo, and BB showed KJo. More thoughts later...

[Garland]

Without looking at the results, I'd double his bet to induce a call (call $16, raise $16). If you raise any more, you probably won't get the call you want. If he proceeds to go all-in, you've got problems.

Garland

[cero_z]

Hi jen,
You should raise whatever amount will get the original bettor to put in the most chips, and I don't think it's close. You started the hand with $200, and you now have $188 with $68 bucks in there and a $16 bet to you, which you will at least call 100% of the time. You should be salivating at the idea of putting the rest of your chips in here. It's just very unlikely that anyone, let alone 2 out of 3 players in the same hand, have made a backdoor flush. You have one, he almost certainly doesn't. So go all-in if there's a fair chance he'll call you, or raise a small amount (to 48, maybe) if you think he'll get feisty with the As, or that he'll call 48 but not much more. Anyway, as you can probably tell by now, I think you want all his chips in there.

[Ulysses]

After thinking about this some more and talking to another player, I agree that you have to raise here. And if you're not willing to raise here, then you should just do what I'd do and fold pre-flop.

[Ulysses]

Per cero's post, if I raised 16, it would be to induce an all-in, not a call.

[jen]

"If she just calls, she'll make $24 + $32 = $56. So, calling $12 pre-flop w/ crap to win $56 in a near ideal situation. That's terrible."

I originally completed ($3, as $1 already plays on the button). After the raise, I called $8 to win $56.

[jen]

"Once you got to the river, you need three conditions to raise. (1) someone will call fairly often with a lesser hand. (2) you will only get reraised if someone has a better hand. (3) good chance you're ahead.

Does this situation satisfy those conditions?"

1. No
2. No
3. Yes

"Also, as you hesitate thinking about whether to raise, your opponents are deciding whether to steal."

I don't hesitate, in general, although I don't think a hesitation particularly matters in this game. As I was putting out my chips, I almost (!) said raise.

"If you do raise, raise less. Maybe $20."

That's what I was thinking as well ($30), but I didn't for the same reasons that you mentioned above.

[jen]

"you only have $190. You made your hand. move your whole stack in there."

Wow.

[jen]

"Do you think a raise would likely be called? I think it's more likely it would be re-raised or folded."

Yes, I agree. In general, a worse hand won't call and my hand can't stand a raise.

FWIW, if this pro had open-raised before I had ever acted or the raise was bigger preflop, then I wouldn't have called preflop.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
"If she just calls, she'll make $24 + $32 = $56. So, calling $12 pre-flop w/ crap to win $56 in a near ideal situation. That's terrible."

I originally completed ($3, as $1 already plays on the button). After the raise, I called $8 to win $56.


[/ QUOTE ]

Things worked out almost perfectly for you and all you could get was 7:1. Why do you want to play this hand?

[Ulysses]

What would you have done had one of these guys bet $30 on the turn? If your answer is call, what would you have done had they followed that up w/ a big bet on the river? OK. I guess that was two things.

[jen]

"Things worked out almost perfectly for you and all you could get was 7:1. Why do you want to play this hand?"

I don't get why you have such a problem with me playing this hand. Here's the equity of all the hands pre-flop:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Kh 556423 40.59 755835 55.14 58496 4.27 0.426
Kc Jd 266650 19.45 1045608 76.28 58496 4.27 0.215
3s 2s 489185 35.69 872904 63.68 8665 0.63 0.359

What's wrong with having gotten 7:1?

[Ulysses]

Your thinking on this hand is way off. Those pre-flop equity figures are near irrelevant, jen. If you're making an all-in call getting 7:1, great. But that's not the case here. You're getting 7:1 in the best case scenario where you got a free ride to the river and made your hand. You think you're going to even see the river 1 out of 8 times with this hand? And what about the times you pick up a flush draw on the turn and call a bet? And of course, you won't always make your hand on the river the times you get there. And sometimes you'll make a hand and still lose. Put that together and it means you'll need to see the river way more than 1 out of 8 times to make this a profitable hand. Get it?

As for "pre-flop equity", yeah, it's slightly better than 72o:

cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qd Kh 627913 45.81 682478 49.79 60363 4.40 0.479
Kc Jd 294950 21.52 1015441 74.08 60363 4.40 0.236
7s 2h 387528 28.27 975181 71.14 8045 0.59 0.285

And since I'm planning to start playing this game more and I like money, I have absolutely no problem w/ you playing this hand. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[J.A.Sucker]

Ulysses is exactly correct in his analysis. The EV equity of the hand matters little, unless you are running it all-in. You should be more interested with what the "money favorite" is. Against this lineup, I suspect that you aren't getting action with this hand; you are likely giving it, even with position.

[jen]

"Your thinking on this hand is way off. Those pre-flop equity figures are near irrelevant, jen. If you're making an all-in call getting 7:1, great. But that's not the case here. You're getting 7:1 in the best case scenario where you got a free ride to the river and made your hand. You think you're going to even see the river 1 out of 8 times with this hand?"

Sure, if he's got aces, then I won't see the river, but what if he doesn't pair on the flop? I wouldn't call 23s out of position for $8, but with another caller (which will slow him down if he doesn't pair) and the button, I disagree.

"As for 'pre-flop equity', yeah, it's slightly better than 72o"

.48 vs .28 is much worse than .43 vs .36, and obviously, there are a lot more flops with my hand (vs 72o) which would allow me to stay in the pot.

"And since I'm planning to start playing this game more and I like money, I have absolutely no problem w/ you playing this hand."

Come and get it, my friend. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Sure, if he's got aces, then I won't see the river

[/ QUOTE ]

Or if either of them has a multitude of other hands.


[ QUOTE ]
but what if he doesn't pair on the flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

If neither player has a hand worth betting on the flop, yes, you get to see the turn. Woohoo.

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't call 23s out of position for $8, but with another caller (which will slow him down if he doesn't pair) and the button, I disagree.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you like 23s on the button to a raise v. two tricky pros when a pretty close to best case scenario gets you 7:1 on your money when it's all said and done, well, good for you.

BTW, what was your answer re: my two questions in my earlier post (what you do to a $30 turn bet / big river bet)? IMO, those questions further illustrate why this is an unprofitable hand unless, as Boris and cero suggest, you're willing to put all the money in on the river.

[jen]

"If neither player has a hand worth betting on the flop, yes, you get to see the turn. Woohoo."

If I see the turn, then I likely see the river. As you can see, no big K will bet the turn even though both players made their hand.

"BTW, what was your answer re: my two questions in my earlier post (what you do to a $30 turn bet / big river bet)?"

That's hard to answer -- it depends on the size of the bet and the subsequent action by the BB. If it's bet-call, then I likely call and bet the river if I hit. If it's bet-fold, then I likely raise.

[PokerSlut]

[ QUOTE ]

"Once you got to the river, you need three conditions to raise. (1) someone will call fairly often with a lesser hand. (2) you will only get reraised if someone has a better hand. (3) good chance you're ahead.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with condition (2) at all, especially in this situation where you've got a backdoor flush in a short-handed game. I'd put in a min-raise and pray they reraise me.

[The Gift Of Gab]

Jen,

I would raise 75% to 100% of the pot. The raise isn't extremely profitable (and on this hand you wouldn't have been paid off) but I think the metagame, image, style, etc. considerations make it easy.

Basically, if I'm going to play three high, I would like to be able to profitably steal on that turn after being checked to twice. Raising the river will help you steal on future turns like this.

I don't want to type it, but if you want the essay-length version, we should meet up at Colma or Hayward one of these evenings. I played the friendly 1-1-2 last Friday.

I'm curious: to those of you who thought Jen might get raised off her anti-nut flush, what worse hands might the SB reraise with?

Finally, pretend you are the SB. After this hand, how would you feel about playing top pair out of position on a scary board against Jen?

[jen]

"I don't want to type it, but if you want the essay-length version, we should meet up at Colma or Hayward one of these evenings."

I want the essay length version if only because I haven't seen you in forever. Come play with me at LC - send me some email if you're available.

[Boris]

"Wow" ???!!!!!!

what do you mean wow? you played your crappy hand and made it. now you just want to call? what would you do if it was pot limit? I think the answer is pretty clear. you raise the pot, which in this case would have been $96 (or somewhere close to that). Since that's a little more than half your stack just shove it in there. It's not like you are really deep so I figure you might as well shove all your chips in there and make it look like you're maybe trying to steal the pot after the other two clowns showed so much weakness.