Lots of outs VS an all in

[josie_wales]

Hey all,

About 4 orbits or so into a SnG with two players out, I check in the BB with 4 /images/graemlins/club.gif5 /images/graemlins/club.gif and three of us see the flop of:

A /images/graemlins/club.gifA /images/graemlins/heart.gif2 /images/graemlins/club.gif

With no raises preflop, I try to represent the 'A' with a semi-bluff and bet pot (@ T250)

MP2 Folds, and MP3 goes all in for T900

Your move and why?

[LetsRock]

Unless my stack is about 4 or 5 times his all-in, I'm folding and even with that big a stack I might fold as well.

I think it's a pretty solid poker tournament axiom not to risk your tourney life on a draw.

In reality, you only have one out that can give you a solid feeling. Your straight and flush draws could easily already be beat (A2,22). If it's not, your opponent has almost as many outs as you to improve. Your flush (should it hit) is also the lowest flush so you could get beat by a bigger flush.

I like the semi-bluff, but this is one you have to let go.

[NotMitch]

Fold, don't risk your whole stack chaing a draw when you don't even know if any of your outs are good. He could have A2 for the boat.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

You don't say how big your stack is.

The pot is offering you 2.15 - 1. If he doesn't have A2, you're actually a very slight favorite here (50.9% assuming his kicker is a 4 or 5). Assuming it isn't, you have 11 outs twice if his kicker isn't a 3. In that case you're a bit better than a 6-5 dog.

I don't think he has the made boat often enough to make this call close. I call here.

[josie_wales]

Thanks guys.

Stacks were about even, he had me covered by maybe T50.

I did call, and he flips 2-2

Lesson learned

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Well, at least you had one out /images/graemlins/crazy.gif

[CrisBrown]

Hi Josie,

Someone else already said this, but in reality you don't have lots of outs. You have one (3c) that you can really rely on. If he has A2, 22, or Ax and the board pairs, you lose even if you hit a flush or straight. If he has any two clubs, you lose even if you hit a flush or a straight. You have one SECURE out and a bunch of other outs that may only get you a (very expensive) second best hand.

Time to lay this one down....

Cris

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
You don't say how big your stack is.

The pot is offering you 2.15 - 1. If he doesn't have A2, you're actually a very slight favorite here (50.9% assuming his kicker is a 4 or 5). Assuming it isn't, you have 11 outs twice if his kicker isn't a 3. In that case you're a bit better than a 6-5 dog.

I don't think he has the made boat often enough to make this call close. I call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

What if he has has Kx/images/graemlins/club.gif? And is this a play someone would make with the nut flush draw on a scary board?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Perhaps I didn't think it through, though I seldom fear flush over flush.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

OK, I'll be purely analytical (and may refute myself in doing so) Considering the range of hands, our hero is facing:

1 out - 9 (A2 - 6, 22 - 3)
3 outs - 10 (KcXc)
12 outs - 144 (A4, A5 - 6 each)
8 outs - 8 (A3)
11 outs - 48 (every other Ax except AK)

Doing the math, that comes out to 8.9 outs on the average.

8.9 outs twice to improve and win .3463 or 1.88 - 1

He's getting 2.15 - 1 from the pot. That's on the border of being only a small edge. Absent of a specific read, I still say the call is a high enough +EV to make in the long run, but I admit it's a close call.

[NotMitch]

Slight nitpicks with the math. All the Ax hands can hit a kicker to make a boat, and if the kicker is a club it is one less flush out, and could hit a higher flush with running clubs. Still I don't think that changes the math very much and it does look very close. For me it depends on what I think of the rest of the table. If I think I am one of the better players left and I have the stack to play with I fold and look for a better spot. If I need the chips to have a viable stack or I'm playing with better players it swings towards a call.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

All the Ax hands can hit a kicker to make a boat

But if his kicker is a four or a five you won't make your flush, so you'll lose anyway. That doesn't decrease the number of outs you have against A4 or A5. (the math is raw, I'm not factoring in redraws)

For me it depends on what I think of the rest of the table.

Of course. My point here is that calling here is slightly better EV than taking AK against a pair.

[NotMitch]

Got it. I'm a little slow today, my mind is on the weekend already. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[josie_wales]

EXCELLENT responses and thank you for them.

Normally, I lay this down, but I had him on a weak ace.

WRONG!!!

Oh well,

Great thoughts and comments guys,

JW

[PrayingMantis]

I think this is a very very close call. If you get 2.15:1 on the pot, it's +EV call for every situation where your EV is more than 0.31. According to twodimes.com, if he has any Ace, with a club kicker, your EV is 0.317. That IS close. If his kicker is not a club, than your EV is slightly better, around 0.338. If he's got A3, you're not good, and the same, of course, for A2. Best situation is if he's holding a PP, without any club, than you are only 6:4 dog.

Overall, It seems to me like much too close a call. I think most times he has an A here. I muck.

PrayingMantis

[Bozeman]

Kurn,

Ignoring redraws here is a big mistake. Suppose he has Ax (x!=4), he has 10 outs to redraw on your 11, which will happen 5.56% of the time. You end up being only 30.31% to win against the 85 A or 22 hands (discounting AA, AK). You miscounted these, partially offsetting the redraw systematic error. Against the K3c, 26.82%, against the other 7 Kxc, 31.26% (remember, you have 4 and 5 as outs here). This means that you have 30.34% => 2.30:1 odds, and the pot is giving you only 2.15:1, so this is an absolute fold.

Only time you would do something else is a) you are a considerable dog to the field b) he would make this move with almost all pocket pairs.

Craig

[Schmed]

I fold because even if I catch I may be beat.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Thanks. Leave it to an Omaha player to be better at the math. /images/graemlins/wink.gif

This sounds like I'd need at least 3-1 from the pot to make a call reasonable unless I was sure I could add pocket pairs to the mix.

[Prickly Pete]

I look at this analysis (very good analysis by the way, Kurn & Boze) and I have to chuckle when I think about Sam Grizzle making this type of play analysis. Like when he called that guy's JJ allin with 76s. I have a feeling, under his breath, he was muttering "Damn, forgot to carry the 1 again."

[ThaSaltCracka]

Does anyone think his opponent OVER played his hand?

[Prickly Pete]

Possibly, but it's not a bad play if he suspects jw may be on a draw. A flat call would be pretty dubious and if the draw misses the turn, it's easier to get away without losing all the chips.

[Bozeman]

(Do I think his opp. overplayed his hand?) No way.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I am just wondering if his all in caused potential callers of the intial raise to fold, I mean what does he have to worry about.
With a flop like that I want to milk it for everything its worth.

[Prickly Pete]

[ QUOTE ]
I mean what does he have to worry about.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ax hitting an x. Or if any other pair fills up, 22 is dead. Admittedly not a ton of cards will kill you, but there may be a few.

[NotMitch]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I mean what does he have to worry about.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ax hitting an x. Or if any other pair fills up, 22 is dead. Admittedly not a ton of cards will kill you, but there may be a few.


[/ QUOTE ]

And Ax is coming along no matter what you do, and most other hands are folding to any action.

[ThaSaltCracka]

[quote
And Ax is coming along no matter what you do, and most other hands are folding to any action.

[/ QUOTE ]

good point, I now see why the all in was the best move here