Can Party Poker 4th and 5th street cards be predicted?

[ctv1116]

So I was just chit chatting while playing a Paradise 0.5/1 table, and in the middle of the conversation one of the guys casually mentions that Party Poker turn and river cards can be easily predicted. He continued to claim that "turn and river cards are rigged to generate action" (i presume to increase rake) and that "this has been discussed extensively on alt rec poker." I figure, if its been discussed on some other board, it must have been discussed on 2+2! So, 2+2, is there any merit to this rumor?

[Edge34]

Highly doubtful...at least, i've never seen any valid (and extensive) proof of it. I doubt party even needs to worry about generating more rake than they already do.

[detox]

ROTFLMAO... The guy is at a fifty cent one dollar game and he has intimate knowledge of the turn and river cards.

[MicroBob]

yes. it's been debated and, on these forums anyway, is widely considered to be goofy conspiracy theory.

those who think these concepts have merit are typically NOT the most highly respected of the posters.

those who believe in alien-abductions can play internet-poker too.

[MicroBob]

oh. and if you're REALLY interested i can go ask one of those street-psychics.
i think the $10 investment would be well worth opportunity to know whether or not my gut-shot is going to fill for me.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Yeah. He is exactly right. There is scientific proof of this all over the internet. Let me give you a few links.

http://www.paranoia.net/partypoker/losingatpokerisnotmyfault.html

http://www.denial.org/the7stagesofdenial/stage3/ifimnotrightthentheremustbeaconspiracy.asp

http://www.thethirdworld.net/offshoregambling/unregulated/blameriversuckoutsoncapitalistoffshorepigs.pdf

I have tons of these sites if you want anymore. I only play on NightOrDay poker because their logarithms and whatnot are the most accurate, and their service is paramount compared to the rest of the sites.

[Inthacup]

Much more predictable than Party's turn and river cards is the conpiracy theorist's ability to consistantly lose at poker.


Cup

[Drunk Bob]

I haven't read any replies,but my first response is.

Why is this guy at Paradise and not Party?

[Lori]

Here is the clue, contained within your own post.

So I was just chit chatting while playing a Paradise 0.5/1 table,

one of the guys casually mentions that Party Poker turn and river cards can be easily predicted.

Now then........ If YOU could easily predict cards at Party, would YOU be playing .5/1 at Paradise?

The amusing thing is that when Paradise was the #1 site, you would hear this conversation at sites other than Paradise saying that the Paradise game was rigged.

Edit: Posted while Bob was beating me to it /images/graemlins/blush.gif

Lori

[ZeeJustin]

[ QUOTE ]
I only play on NightOrDay poker because their logarithms and whatnot are the most accurate

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL. Very nice post.

[Ulysses]

OK. I promised someone that I wouldn't say anything about this here, but it's just too important.

I started playing online in September 2003. For the first couple of months, I did pretty well, but based on how well I did at live poker felt I should be doing better online. It also felt like every time after I hit a winning streak, they would start making me lose. It also felt like the worst opponents were hitting their flushes/sets/etc. way too much. But I didn't want to base anything just on my "feeling" so I decided to do some real analysis.

I began to collect all of the boards and started to analyze the turn and river cards based on the flop cards and the previous set of hands that have been dealt. And soon I began to detect some patterns. After a while, I started to utilize these patterns to guide my betting decisions.

Well, after two months of doing that, I can tell you for sure that you can predict the turn and river cards at Party with about 85% accuracy. To do this, you need to have a pattern map and also keep track of a sequence of about 100 hands in a row before the pattern map becomes useful. To generate the pattern map you will need to analyze at least 10,000 hands. I imagine that by analyzing more hands to generate the pattern maps you can increase the accuracy of the predictions.

Since doing this, my results have really skyrocketed. Once I have gone through enough hands to apply the pattern maps, I stop worrying about my cards and the board on the flop - I take actions based on what my final hand will be.

For example, yesterday I had 77. The flop was 6AQ. Based on the pattern map, I knew that it was unlikely for someone to have AA or QQ (though I can only predict other people's hole cards with about 40% accuracy right now) and I also knew that the next two cards would be a 2 and a 7. Because of this, I capped the flop and turn against two opponents who had AQ and 66. Of course, the river was a 7 as expected and we capped that street as well resulting in a huge pot for me.

All you need to do is watch the seemingly "crazy" play at Party for a few hours to realize that many people have developed versions of pattern maps. Obviously, some are more accurate than others, but it is pretty obvious to see which players are using them.

[Lori]

I used pattern maps for a while, but I could never predict when people had low cards, like 82o, so I had to stop using them.

I believe they are only 30% accurate and as such not really very helpful.

Lori

[HavanaBanana]

[ QUOTE ]
Well, after two months of doing that, I can tell you for sure that you can predict the turn and river cards at Party with about 85% accuracy. To do this, you need to have a pattern map and also keep track of a sequence of about 100 hands in a row before the pattern map becomes useful. To generate the pattern map you will need to analyze at least 10,000 hands. I imagine that by analyzing more hands to generate the pattern maps you can increase the accuracy of the predictions.


[/ QUOTE ]

I know this gives you about a 42% advantage on the people who doesent use the map, but even then the rake hike at Party a month ago took too much away from the players so i am still boicotting the place to 99% except for tournaments, where I only boicott certain events due to Party allowing players to be able to go allin on timeouts even though it is dissallowed to do so on purpose.

[Ulysses]

Lori,

Try using a x=y*sqrt(37.2fn(z^3)log8) factor on cards lower than 9 and you should increase the accuracy of your maps substantially.

[Lori]

Try using a x=y*sqrt(37.2fn(z^3)log8)

Dammit, I was using the old style log6 map /images/graemlins/frown.gif

Thanks for the help.

Lori

[Cubswin]

Hey guys

Where can i get one of these pattern maps? are they expensive? they sound like they can help my game a little.

regards
cubwin

[fluff]

I'm actually in the process of writing a program (bot) to do this for me, since obviously a program can do this far faster and more accurate then I can. And more importantly, it can update the pattern maps on the fly.

This pattern map really makes programming the bot easier, since I don't have to write subroutines to consider my opponents, and instead can just use the information from the pattern map to predict future results.

PS: Thanks for the updated equation.

[Ed Miller]

Where can i get one of these pattern maps? are they expensive? they sound like they can help my game a little.

I can sell you the object model and vtable implementation to mine, but you'll have to derive the weighting function yourself because it keys off your MAC address. I wrote a tool a while back to generate MAC-specific weighting functions, so that shouldn't be much trouble for you. I'm not sure where I posted it; you'll have to search the archives.

By the way, I do not maintain the instance of my pattern map anymore. The exponential scaling outgrew my poor computer's capabilities. /images/graemlins/frown.gif Anyway, if you have a relatively new machine, you shouldn't have that problem.

Send me a PM if you want to negotiate price...

[MrGrob]

[Mac]

but I can't give one.. Did they take away our ability to judge - it always felt good to throw a one-star OC's way.

[Cubswin]

Am i going to need my abacus to do any calculations?

[Ed Miller]

Am i going to need my abacus to do any calculations?

Huh? Why would you need an abacus?

[BreakEvenPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
Try using a x=y*sqrt(37.2fn(z^3)log8)

Dammit, I was using the old style log6 map

Thanks for the help.

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't believe you actually are letting this stuff out. My math professor was a Fields Scholar at Berkeley and it took him 8 years of hard work to come up with the LOG 8 equation. Now it is readily available on the internet and he will get no credit for it! Well, at least only 2+2 users will benefit from this knowledge.

[crockpot]

here is a simple way to debunk this. imagine that it is easily possible to predict the turn and river cards at party. what would you do?

a) learn the secret, and win big at every limit on party building up your bankroll until you are finally winning consistently at multiple tables of 30/60 or 200 NL

b) play .50/1 at paradise

i also suggest you make a note that this guy is going to give away his money at the table. who is more likely to believe that the game is rigged against him, a winning player or a losing one?

[tiltboy]

[ QUOTE ]
So I was just chit chatting while playing a Paradise 0.5/1 table, and in the middle of the conversation one of the guys casually mentions that Party Poker turn and river cards can be easily predicted. He continued to claim that "turn and river cards are rigged to generate action" (i presume to increase rake) and that "th
is has been discussed extensively on alt rec poker." I figure, if its been discussed on some other board, it must have been discussed on 2+2! So, 2+2, is there any merit to this rumor?

[/ QUOTE ]
First of all, the alt.rec.poker newsgroup doesn't exist. My news server carries over 67,000 newsgroups and this isn't one of them, so the story starts to fall apart from here. Even if he/she meant rec.gambling.poker, just because something is posted anonymously on a newsgroup doesn't make it so [else the aliens really are among us.] Similarly just because something is claimed on 2+2, doesn't make it so (where is Tom D. anyway?)

[Lori]

else the aliens really are among us.

Is this implying that my 300 alien posts on here are all worthless?

Lori

[Inthacup]

Is this implying that my 300 alien posts on here are all worthless?

Lori hasn't made 300 alien posts. I think LORINDA did though. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif



Cup

[Paluka]

I'm pretty convinced that the various beeps and other sound effects at party are very slightly altered when a "deck changing" effect is about to take place. The Party software has to intervene with the normal course of events in order to put an "action" card on the turn or river, and this "hiccup" in the continuom screws up the sound. This is similar to the scene in The Matrix where Neo sees the same cat twice and says "deja vu". The problem- these slight sound alterations are not detectable to the human ear. You need to find a person with a disability whose name you can use in order to get a specially trained "hearing" monkey. These creatures are extremely intelligent. In addition to aiding in the "hearing" process, they can fetch drinks and relay pokertracker information.

[HavanaBanana]

YESSSS!!!!

Exactly what happends at certain slotmachines, I knew I was not imageing things!

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty convinced that the various beeps and other sound effects at party are very slightly altered when a "deck changing" effect is about to take place.

[/ QUOTE ]

[Ace-Korea]

AAAAK

[Lori]

To those who sent a PM.

I'm afraid the pattern map is currently not for sale given the new log8 information I have.

Lori

[John Ho]

Ulysses is a shill for the brick and mortar cardrooms.

[Ulysses]

a) This is stupid. There are no sound cues on Party. There is no "intervening" going on in the middle of a hand. There are no such things as "action" cards to replace cards. If that were true, the pattern maps would not work because the patterns would be broken by these "deck changing" effects. Please keep your stupid theories off this forum. Nobody is interested in dumb Party conspiracy theories.

b) Yes, monkeys are cool. I am considering getting one as a pet/personal assistant. One cool idea my friends and I came up with was that for Halloween I could dress up as a pirate and then have my pet monkey dress up as a parrot and hang out on my shoulder. How cool would that be?

[Ulysses]

To those who sent both Lori and me PMs: If you read this thread, you will notice that Lori was not even using the right factoring formulas. If you think that her pattern map is going to be anywhere near as good as mine by just replacing her flawed factoring formula, you are seriously mistaken. If she had that basic of a component wrong, I'm sure she has many other flaws in her pattern map.

I will consider selling my pattern map and associated tools/utilities. But because too many people using them would kill the game, I am only selling a limited number of copies. To all serious bidders I will provide you a spreadsheet of my win results using this pattern map. Suffice it to say, the amounts are staggering. Please submit your bids via PM and I will notify the winning bidders. There will only be one round of bidding, so come right out with your best offer or risk missing out.

[Ulysses]

as a heart attack, baby.

[TylerD]

More importantly has anyone written a program to determine when is the optimum time to swing the bat in that Pingu game?

(Just got 593.5 btw woo-hoo)

[Cubswin]

I have and will be selling the secret to the highest bidder... PM with an offer. SERIOUS OFFERS ONLY

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I have and will be selling the secret to the highest bidder... PM with an offer. SERIOUS OFFERS ONLY

[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously anybody can say this. But here's a good test to verify if they actually have anything or are just rip-off artists. On Party after the following three boards:

9h 9c 3s 4d Ah
7c 2h 8c 9c 4c
As 4s Jd Qc 2c

and the following flop:

Ac 5d 4d

what will the turn card be 70% of the time?

I can provide the answer to that (as can anyone with an accurate pattern map) and any user can independently verify the accuracy of that answer just by observing enough Party hands. (You don't actually have to observe them, just request a lot of hand histories until you notice this board pattern and then verify my answer.)

I bet I am the only one here who will be willing to provide this kind of INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIABLE PROOF.

[Lori]

As 4s Jd Qc 2c

You just enjoy making things hard for people, you could have picked an easier one.

Lori

[Cubswin]

I was talking about the secret to the penguin game. However, Lori is dead on with her calculations though....even though i dont agree with the way she arrived at them.

regards
cubswin

[Ulysses]

Oh, OK. I might be willing to negotiate a pattern map trade for that.

[John Ho]

[t_perkin]

there is no way you got 593.5! please tell me you don´t mean that... I spent ages and only got to 339.9 /images/graemlins/frown.gif

tim

[MrFroggyX]

Haha this was some funny [censored]!

lololololol

</font><blockquote><font class="small">Svar till:</font><hr />
Try using a x=y*sqrt(37.2fn(z^3)log8)

[/ QUOTE ]

This must be a joke.. lololol..

Anyway have a funny life.. I really cracking up here /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[dink]

This is a terrible thing to ask

but I am going to ask it anyway

can you post the names of the people who PM'ed you????

[t_perkin]

Has anyone here ever played Mornington Crescent?

This post is beginning to remind me of it /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Tim

[Cubswin]

I did get it once... got 593.3 once too. The trick is that he has to skid to get max distance

[Stagemusic]

593.9

[daveymck]

I have the formula for the exlixer (cant spell) (potion) of eternal life.

I will swop it for the pattern map which I will use to destroy the .50/1 on party running 50 tables on my 500" plasma screen.

My current win rate is 1000bb per hour so I expect to double that minimunm with this information.

PM me if the jobs a good en.

[TylerD]

I thought 593.5 was the max possible.

[Stagemusic]

I am sure it said .9 but I might be wrong. Early in the morning and all. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[brassnuts]

Ullyses, if you're not adjusting your interpolator when there is a flopped pair on the board, your log code is completely useless. Try y=z*y' on these occurances and remember to set z equal to the average randomizing quotient. If you don't get increased predictability try reseting your binary coil. If that doesn't work, it's possible to tweek the flux capacitor, but this often leads to askew code recognition. Good luck. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Shaun]

No.

[act]

Lets get some 'proof' on the board:
Someone with pokertracker please post 20 hands, but leave out 4'th and 5'th street. Then Ulysses predicts 4'th and 5'th street, and if he is correct even 50% of the time I am convinced...

[Cubswin]

Ill post 3....lets see what you can do mr hotshot:

1) [ Js, 2d, 4s ]
2) [ 3h, 9c, 2s ]
3) [ Ks, Qs, 5d ]

I'll post hand histories after he makes his predictions.

[RollaJ]

LOL, ..... I know this Roulette wheel that on average lands on 7 about 6% of the time, but I dont like the atmosphere at that wheel, So I play this one over here /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[mmanne]

I'm trying to believe Ulysses, but this whole situation reminds me of the guy on TV selling the book on "How to Become a Millionaire". I've always expected that if you buy the book, every page is blank, except the last page which reads, "Write a book called How to be a Millionaire, charge 29.95 for it and sell 35,000 copies".

I understand while it might be possible, it seems odd to me that Ulysses is coming out on this board and saying something about it. Sure, maybe it's the $$ he'll get by selling it, but really, if this was true, why not play the 15-30 game and make much more than by selling this info?

If I see a good amount of hard data, I'd be willing to believe it, but until then I'm just to skeptical.

matt

[PuppetMaster]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm trying to believe Ulysses, but this whole situation reminds me of the guy on TV selling the book on "How to Become a Millionaire". I've always expected that if you buy the book, every page is blank, except the last page which reads, "Write a book called How to be a Millionaire, charge 29.95 for it and sell 35,000 copies".

I understand while it might be possible, it seems odd to me that Ulysses is coming out on this board and saying something about it. Sure, maybe it's the $$ he'll get by selling it, but really, if this was true, why not play the 15-30 game and make much more than by selling this info?

If I see a good amount of hard data, I'd be willing to believe it, but until then I'm just to skeptical.

matt

[/ QUOTE ]
Ulysses is such a trusted poster, which makes me want to believe him, although I dont quite understand how exactly the pediction map works.

[TylerD]

While we're on the subject I'm selling a sarcasm detector for $29.95, if anyone would like one drop me a PM.

[tiltboy]

[ QUOTE ]
While we're on the subject I'm selling a sarcasm detector for $29.95, if anyone would like one drop me a PM.

[/ QUOTE ]
Oddly, my sarcasm detector went off while reading this very post.

[Ed Miller]

If that doesn't work, it's possible to tweek the flux capacitor...

Ya... I saw that movie too. Take your trolling to another thread please. This thread is complicated and OT enough with the penguin game stuff... we don't need charletans like you confusing the issue with false information.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Ill post 3....lets see what you can do mr hotshot:

[/ QUOTE ]

OK, this post is somewhat stupid, cubswin. You don't even understand the basic concept of how the pattern map works.

It is not like you can just go to Party and look at any flop and say "OK, now these are the next two cards." You look at a series of flops to figure out which pattern is being dealt and THEN after you've figured that out, you can figure out what the turn and river cards will be on future flops. For the pattern map to be 85% accurate, you need to look at at least 20 flops before you start using the pattern map.

However, the pattern maps still do provide some pretty good guidelines as far as what will happen on any given flop, so I will humor you and give your little test a shot, though the results will surely be less than 85% correct.

[ Js, 2d, 4s ] 6h Tc
[ 3h, 9c, 2s ] Kd 8s
[ Ks, Qs, 5d ] 2c Jh

[Ulysses]

Thanks, I will give that a try.

[Ed Miller]

You look at a series of flops to figure out which pattern is being dealt and THEN after you've figured that out, you can figure out what the turn and river cards will be on future flops.

BTW, he explained this in the original post. Please read, people.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
if this was true, why not play the 15-30 game and make much more than by selling this info?

[/ QUOTE ]

It is common knowledge on these forums that I play 3 10-20 6-max tables at the same time with very good results. I get way more hands in the 6-max than in a full table, so this is like playing higher than 15-30 full games. I also play the 15-30 6-max, but less often because those tables are often full. I also play the 30-60, but same thing, with only 2 tables they are often full.

Of course, there is a limit to how many tables I can play simultaneously. I will not use a bot, use any automated program, open multiple accounts, or do anything that violates Party's terms of service.

So, that is why I am limited in how much I make. But, believe me, that is plenty. In fact, I'm rethinking whether or not I should sell this valuable information to anyone.

[daveymck]

Now I thought that this pattern map thing was a piss take see how gullible everyone was either you guys are on the biggest wind up ever, which at this point is where I think we are.

Or there really are patterns on there, if it is the latter rather than getting the map I will move sites.

I still think its a piss take but will be interested to see how this thread develops.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
If I see a good amount of hard data, I'd be willing to believe it, but until then I'm just to skeptical.

[/ QUOTE ]

Any intelligent person would be skeptical here. This is not definitive proof, but take a look at the hand I posted in this thread (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=493969&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb =5&amp;o=&amp;vc=1) a few days ago.

Notice the board on the turn. 9JQK. A guy is raising with what is obviously a Ten for the straight (turns out it was AT for the nut straight). Yet I still 3-bet him knowing he will probably 4-bet. And look at what happens on the river. This is obviously not complete proof, but it should at least make you think.

[Vehn]

I posted this link to rec.gambling.poker also to see what the best poker minds in the world think. Personally I'm simply stunned by these developments.

RGP post here (http://www.recpoker.com/article.php?gID=1&amp;ID=304764)

For your convenience I have copied the text of my message below:

Subject: Party Poker turn/river predicting with pattern mapping??

From: vehn (anonymous@hotmail.com) Sent: Jan 28 2004 1:22PM


Take a look at this thread on 2+2:

http://tinyurl.com/2776e

About the tenth response in, long time and very well respected poster "Ulysses" reveals his Party Poker "pattern mapping" sequence which he claims to accurately predict the turn and river up to 85% of the time. Now trust me when I say this individual is an extremely reliable and truthful person with absolutely no malice or sense of humor, and every single thing he says in regards to poker theory and hand analysis can be taken as 100% correct and as face value - so much so that he is known as "the Gary Carson of 2+2".

I am very sure that the subjects in the referenced post and its follow ups is happening and working RIGHT NOW on the WORLDS BEST online poker site with its previously infallible software and excellent support, PartyPoker.com itself. Personally I feel the integrity of the site and indeed, online poker itself, has been utterly compromised and I will not rest until we all hear a PERSONAL assurance from the CEO of Global iMedia Mr. Mike Sexyton himself that this matter is being investigated with the UTMOST urgency. I personally have played hundreds of hours of $.50/$1 hold'em on Party Poker and have likely payed tens of dollars in rake, and now believe that this pattern mapping is 100% responsible for my significant losses. Unless we here at RGP receive a prompt and assuring response from the GiM team I will be forced to make my next deposit at
either the #2 site in terms of software, Planet Poker, or the #2 site in terms of Customer Service, Ultimatebet.com.


You will have to click out to recpoker (http://www.recpoker.com) or google (http://groups.google.com/groups?hl=en&amp;lr=&amp;ie=UTF-8&amp;group=rec.gambling.poker) to see the follow up responses to the RGP post.

[HavanaBanana]

I am not pleased to see that this sequence mapping method has gotten out to the RGP posters, as I had grand plans for the Zoo taking them for some serious doe in an upcomming challenge.

It was the well known borderline case Vehn who burst the bubble so to speak.

RGP pattern link (http://www.recpoker.com/article.php?gID=1&amp;ID=304764)

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Best thread of the year!!!!

[rjbigfish]

[ QUOTE ]
x=y*sqrt(37.2fn(z^3)log8)

[/ QUOTE ]

I believe that was a typo. Didn't you mean to say x=y*sqrt(3.72fn(z^3)log8)?

[theBruiser500]

Las Vagos: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=498421&amp;page=&amp;view=&amp;sb=5&amp;o =&amp;fpart=all&amp;vc=1

pacifist ashman: what's the significance of this page

Las Vagos: its interesting

Las Vagos: that party cards can be predicted

pacifist ashman: what are you talking about??

Las Vagos: its not ur normal wacko conspiracy theory

Las Vagos: those people are well respected 2+2 posters

Las Vagos: like Ulysses, hes a very well known and respected poster


It's a good thing my friend told me about this thread, this should make me a lot of money. Ulysses, based off of your instructive posts I think I'll be able to turn my losing streak around now. Pattern mapping, it looks like the way to go.

By the way Tyler, could I buy one of those sarcasm detectors of yours? I think a certain friend of mine could use it...

danny

[ScottTheFish]

This is really confusing me. I always assumed every player was using pattern maps, and the winners were simply the ones that had the best/most accurate maps.

Now I found out some players aren't using them. /images/graemlins/confused.gif I'm very interested to find out what these other players are using to predict the turn and river cards. Maybe there is a better method than pattern maps I'm unaware of.

Can someone who doesn't use pattern maps enlighten me?

[morgant]

Crystal Ball

[dogsballs]

dave, you need to replace or upgrade your version of this this (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&amp;Number=499215&amp;page=0&amp;view=co llapsed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;vc=1).



--------------------------------------------------------
Get 15-20% of your purchase price back from TylerD Poker Promotions. PM me for details.
--------------------------------------------------------

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone who doesn't use pattern maps enlighten me?

[/ QUOTE ]

Pig entrails and chicken feet.

(Do not use chicken entrails and pig feet - that's what caused the large boil on my a$$ that still aches when it gets cold /images/graemlins/frown.gif)

[Phishy McFish]

[daveymck]

Well I am the most sarcastic guy around, and at first I knew it was a wind up, see my post on offering the potion of everlasting life.

But then some people who's opinion I look out for and respect started adding to the thread and I swiched off my dectector briefly as it intereferes with my mobile, I then saw the post after mine and tried to delete my post but time had expired on editing and my detector was back on. /images/graemlins/blush.gif

I will be withdrawing my funds from party immediatley now that my feeling it was rigged I will never ever play online again. And all you with the maps and wanting to buy them are the biggest most disgusting cheats I have ever come across and all should be banned from this forum, I came here to improve my poker notr learn to cheat. /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[NoChance]

It's obvious that this guy is playing .50-1 at Paradise because he already has Party figured out. He is playing the low limits at Paradise to simply gather data. Once he gets Paradise mapped out I'm guessing he will move up to the higher limits or try to map a new site.

[Ulysses]

[act]

Here are some hands (played in sequence of course).
Can you predict the turn and river on the last?

** Dealing Flop ** : [ 8h, Kd, 5d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 8d ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Kc ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Jc, 9c, 5d ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 2c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Qd ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 2h, 4d, 2c ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Jh, 7s, 5c ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jd ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 4d ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6d, As, 6s ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Ad ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 5c, Kd, 4h ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9d, 9h, 5c ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 9c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Qh ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ As, 7s, Kd ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 3c ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ As, 3s, Td ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Jc ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Js, 3d, 9h ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7s, Qd, Ad ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 7c, 5d, Jh ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4c ]
** Dealing River ** : [ Td ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Th, Ac, 8c ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Qd ]
** Dealing River ** : [ 5h ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 6s, Js, Qc ]
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 8d ]
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 9c, 9h, Jc ]

[Cubswin]

Look at Ulysses 'guesses' using his method and look at the actual turn and river cards. This is pretty amazing. I think we should try to keep this info under wraps. This system could be worth millions.

Hand 1: Ulysses guess 6h Tc, actual results 6h 9c
Hand 2: Ulysses guess Kd 8s, actual results Kh 8s
Hand 3: Ulysses guess 2c Jh, actual results 4c Jh


***** Hand History for Game 356774231 *****
3/6 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (LIMIT) - TUE JAN 27 05:09:20 EST 2004
Table Strawberries (Real Money) -- Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: pissinriver ( $125)
Seat 2: granadino ( $188)
Seat 3: Rocketbob ( $56)
Seat 4: dooda4ever ( $106.50)
Seat 5: fum293 ( $70.50)
Seat 6: Carcy420 ( $264)
Seat 7: AndyGibb ( $134)
Seat 8: fullboat37 ( $125)
Seat 9: LukeMintzas ( $23)
Seat 10: sauceisboss ( $118.50)
AndyGibb posts small blind (1)
fullboat37 posts big blind (3)
fum293 posts big blind + dead (4)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Ah, Ad ]
LukeMintzas calls (3)
sauceisboss raises (6) to 6
pissinriver calls (6)
granadino folds.
Rocketbob folds.
dooda4ever folds.
fum293 calls (3)
Carcy420 calls (6)
AndyGibb raises (8) to 9
fullboat37 calls (6)
LukeMintzas raises (9) to 12
sauceisboss calls (6)
pissinriver folds.
fum293 calls (6)
Carcy420 calls (6)
AndyGibb calls (3)
fullboat37 calls (3)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Js, 2d, 4s ]
AndyGibb bets (3)
fullboat37 folds.
LukeMintzas raises (6) to 6
sauceisboss raises (9) to 9
fum293 calls (9)
Carcy420 folds.
AndyGibb calls (6)
LukeMintzas raises (5) to 11
LukeMintzas calls all-In.
sauceisboss calls (2)
fum293 calls (2)
AndyGibb calls (2)
Creating Main Pot with $120 with LukeMintzas
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 6h ]
AndyGibb checks.
sauceisboss bets (6)
fum293 calls (6)
AndyGibb calls (6)
** Dealing River ** : [ 9c ]
AndyGibb checks.
sauceisboss bets (6)
fum293 calls (6)
AndyGibb calls (6)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $120 | Side Pot 1: $36 | Rake: $3
Board: [ Js 2d 4s 6h 9c ]
pissinriver balance $119, lost $6 (folded)
granadino balance $188, didn't bet (folded)
Rocketbob balance $56, didn't bet (folded)
dooda4ever balance $306.50, didn't bet (folded)
fum293 balance $34.50, lost $36 [ Kd Jh ] [ a pair of jacks -- Kd,Jh,Js,9c,6h ]
Carcy420 balance $252, lost $12 (folded)
AndyGibb balance $99, lost $35 [ Qh Qs ] [ a pair of queens -- Qh,Qs,Js,9c,6h ]
fullboat37 balance $113, lost $12 (folded)
LukeMintzas balance $0, lost $23 [ Td Jd ] [ a pair of jacks -- Jd,Js,Td,9c,6h ]
sauceisboss balance $239.50, bet $35, collected $156, net +$121 [ Ah Ad ] [ a pair of aces -- Ah,Ad,Js,9c,6h ]

***** Hand History for Game 334267446 *****
3/6 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (LIMIT) - WED JAN 14 23:41:38 EST 2004
Table Card Room Table 2687 (Real Money) -- Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: A11754 ( $360.50)
Seat 2: EVIFOTECA ( $173)
Seat 3: azack ( $199.50)
Seat 4: TheFeez ( $101)
Seat 5: Drant ( $146)
Seat 7: ParisBimbo ( $80)
Seat 8: coach2040 ( $106)
Seat 9: MovieTitan ( $140)
Seat 10: sauceisboss ( $112)
ParisBimbo posts small blind (1)
coach2040 posts big blind (3)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Ac, Kc ]
MovieTitan calls (3)
sauceisboss raises (6) to 6
A11754 folds.
EVIFOTECA folds.
azack calls (6)
TheFeez folds.
Drant folds.
ParisBimbo folds.
coach2040 calls (3)
MovieTitan calls (3)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ 3h, 9c, 2s ]
coach2040 checks.
MovieTitan checks.
sauceisboss bets (3)
azack calls (3)
coach2040 folds.
MovieTitan folds.
** Dealing Turn ** : [ Kh ]
sauceisboss bets (6)
azack raises (12) to 12
sauceisboss calls (6)
** Dealing River ** : [ 8s ]
sauceisboss checks.
azack bets (6)
sauceisboss calls (6)
** Summary **
Main Pot: $64 | Rake: $3
Board: [ 3h 9c 2s Kh 8s ]
A11754 balance $360.50, didn't bet (folded)
EVIFOTECA balance $173, didn't bet (folded)
azack balance $172.50, lost $27 [ 7h Ah ] [ high card ace -- Ah,Kh,9c,8s,7h ]
TheFeez balance $101, didn't bet (folded)
Drant balance $146, didn't bet (folded)
dtboland balance $150, sits out
ParisBimbo balance $79, lost $1 (folded)
coach2040 balance $100, lost $6 (folded)
MovieTitan balance $134, lost $6 (folded)
sauceisboss balance $149, bet $27, collected $64, net +$37 [ Ac Kc ] [ a pair of kings -- Ac,Kc,Kh,9c,8s ]

***** Hand History for Game 357514131 *****
3/6 TEXASHTGAMETABLE (LIMIT) - TUE JAN 27 17:58:46 EST 2004
Table Xanadu (Real Money) -- Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: korgmonkey ( $35)
Seat 2: sauceisboss ( $190)
Seat 3: LUCKITO ( $115.50)
Seat 4: Zestiness ( $50.50)
Seat 5: tnl113 ( $41)
Seat 6: dooda4ever ( $342.50)
Seat 8: NJExpos ( $152.50)
Seat 9: ColorMeBest ( $160.50)
Seat 10: svendamien ( $134)
korgmonkey posts small blind (1)
sauceisboss posts big blind (3)
tnl113 posts big blind (3)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Kd, Kh ]
LUCKITO raises (6) to 6
Zestiness folds.
tnl113 calls (3)
dooda4ever folds.
NJExpos folds.
ColorMeBest folds.
svendamien folds.
korgmonkey calls (5)
sauceisboss raises (6) to 9
LUCKITO calls (3)
tnl113 calls (3)
korgmonkey calls (3)
** Dealing Flop ** : [ Ks, Qs, 5d ]
korgmonkey checks.
sauceisboss bets (3)
LUCKITO calls (3)
tnl113 raises (6) to 6
korgmonkey folds.
sauceisboss raises (6) to 9
LUCKITO folds.
tnl113 calls (3)
** Dealing Turn ** : [ 4c ]
sauceisboss bets (6)
tnl113 raises (12) to 12
sauceisboss raises (12) to 18
tnl113 raises (11) to 23
tnl113 calls all-In.
sauceisboss calls (5)
** Dealing River ** : [ Jh ]
Creating Main Pot with $100 with tnl113
** Summary **
Main Pot: $100 | | Rake: $3
Board: [ Ks Qs 5d 4c Jh ]
korgmonkey balance $26, lost $9 (folded)
sauceisboss balance $249, bet $41, collected $100, net +$59 [ Kd Kh ] [ three of a kind, kings -- Kd,Kh,Ks,Qs,Jh ]
LUCKITO balance $103.50, lost $12 (folded)
Zestiness balance $50.50, didn't bet (folded)
tnl113 balance $0, lost $41 [ 5s Qd ] [ two pairs, queens and fives -- Ks,Qd,Qs,5s,5d ]
dooda4ever balance $342.50, didn't bet (folded)
beta7777 balance $243, sits out
NJExpos balance $152.50, didn't bet (folded)
ColorMeBest balance $160.50, didn't bet (folded)
svendamien balance $134, didn't bet (folded)

[dm34]

Either this is an elaborate hoax, or I am very, very scared.

[jmark]

I replay all hands from my last session on my wall. I have about 5000 decks of cards that I tack up in the order the cards came out. Then I connect them with lines and circle patterns that I found. The advantage to this is that you can also find secret codes Party Poker is sending to the Russians. My CIA contact told me not to tell you, but I have a beautiful mind and I want everyone to know.

[Ed Miller]

These are very impressive a priori results. Ulysses must have spent hundreds of hours gathering his background database.

[Ulysses]

The pattern involves all cards dealt, not just the board cards. So, in this case with 15 flops you know at least 30 other cards (the cards you were dealt) and perhaps as many as 15 to 30 additional cards from the hands shown at showdown (since the hand history lets you see all of those hands) at the 6 rivers. Without all of those cards, the analysis is meaningless.

I've already responded to one "Challenge" above - let's see how I do on that one.

If you provide the full info regarding cards dealt in this sequence, I'll consider running this sequence, but I might not as it's just a waste of my time at this point unless you're a serious bidder.

FYI, for all serious bidders I have had them send me a 100 hand history sequence from Party where they delete the turn and river from the last 10 hands. I then tell them what those cards will be. I have already provided this "proof" to 8 serious bidders. If you or anyone else are also a serious bidder I am more than willing to do the same.

[fluff]

I have now recieved several PMs offering to purchase the program I am writing. Instead of addressing them one by one, I think I would do it here.

First of all, my program is at a very early stage. It is doing ok for now, but most of the time I have to "baby-sit" it to see how it does in case of bugs, etc. You don't want this program at this stage, since a bug that you do not catch in time can drain your entire buy-in.

Secondly, and more importantly, once this program works its worth will be inversely proportional to how many other people are out there using the same or similar programs. If a lot of people use this program, then obviously no one can win. If I sell this program to even one person, there is nothing preventing that person to re-sell it to hundreds of others (discounting software ID keys that are easily cracked anyway). Besides there are already competing programmers working on this, as you can see from the other posts here.

Thirdly, this program stands to make massive amounts of money for me. If the on-line poker explosion continues at the current pace, I project obscene amounts of money for very little work. Why would I need more money by selling this program? (As a side point: always be wary of people selling get-rich schemes such as you might have seen on TV or junk-mailed to you. If this get-rich scheme worked so well, why on earth are you *selling* it to perfect strangers?)

And finally, if for some unforseen reason I decide to sell this (and I emphasize "unforseen" because truly I can not see any reason why I would), it will not be for a "nominal amount" (as a kind person offered in a PM). In fact it will be for a tremendous amount. Amounts I could retire on. Comfortably. On my private island in the Carribean. Where the drinks have tiny umbrellas in it. Thank you.

[Ulysses]

Looks like the challenge results were posted while I was writing that response. As I mentioned in my post, if you are a serious bidder and want more detailed proof, I am happy to run any sequence of 100 hand histories.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]

Hand 1: Ulysses guess 6h Tc, actual results 6h 9c
Hand 2: Ulysses guess Kd 8s, actual results Kh 8s
Hand 3: Ulysses guess 2c Jh, actual results 4c Jh

Dealt to sauceisboss [ Ah, Ad ]
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Ac, Kc ]
Dealt to sauceisboss [ Kd, Kh ]


[/ QUOTE ]

I am sure some of you will be quick to point out that I only got 3 of 6 cards exactly right. Please let me point out a few things, though.

First off, in the original challenge, cubswin only provided me with three hand histories and did not provide a sequence prior to those. This is by far the primary reason I only had 50% accuracy here.

Secondly, he did not provide me with his hole cards, which definitely impacts the accuracy as well. Specifically, in the second hand, if I had known that the Kc was out in his hand, the pattern map would have shown the correct Kh instead of the Kd. As it was, I had to take a 50/50 shot at figuring out which King it would be.

Thirdly, note that of the 3 cards I got wrong, I got the correct rank in one (Kd v. Kh and the correct suits Tc v 9c, 4c v 2c in the other two). As I've mentioned, this map is not 100% accurate yet, but you can often gain great benefit simply by knowing things like whether or not a flush is going to make it.

[brassnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Ya... I saw that movie too. Take your trolling to another thread please. This thread is complicated and OT enough with the penguin game stuff... we don't need charletans like you confusing the issue with false information.


[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, I am pretty good at sniffing out sarcasm, but since I am new here and am not accustomed to your style, I can only guess that there about 25% chance you are serious. Where's that sarcasm detector someone mentioned earlier?

[wdbaker]

I think that some of you may be neglecting the seat selection pattern. If you watch carefully on the game that you are playing, there are generally 3 to 4 seats grouped together that get dealt the better cards, this changes by game and by day. Spend a little time watching for this pattern and make sure you only sit in those seats that fit the pattern.

Ulysses, if you add this to your program, I'm sure that this will put you close to the 100% mark.

I would appreciate a copy of the algorythm once it is completed with the above addition, you know, i scratch your back you scratch mine /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[mktrout]

If someone was willing to provide me with this map / program I would be willing to put up the capital and play at the site, and will split all profits with the person that provides me this information. I will obviously provide you with documentation of winnings so you can assure it is fair. Thanks. If your willing email me here mpkratz@yahoo.com

[Cubswin]

Hey!!!! Im first in line here... ill go 75/25 on this deal. You can have 75%

[Ulysses]

Please don't make any further posts regarding card/seat bunching patterns on this forum. I will be in touch w/ you via PM regarding this topic. (I am aware of this but did not start collecting data on it for a while and I would prefer that nobody get a head start on developing good seat selection pattern maps)

[Duke]

I usually don't read the internet forum, but every once in a while I regret it.

This is definitely one of those times. I feel that I have done myself a disservice by missing out on the opportunity to take advantage of their leak.

With it now being confirmed that the cards are indeed predictable, I'll get back to work on my own pattern map. My only issue was feeding it data real-time while I'm playing. I have a manual interface on top of it, but had a tough time with more than one game.

To compare maps you can PM me. Please include SETEC ASTRONOMY in the subject line. I think by the end of the month we should be able to complete work on this holy grail.

~D

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Ulysses is leaving out one vital piece of information to all you others who want in on this. Remember that there are thousands of hands going at the same time at Party Poker, on thousands of tables. This throws a nice little spoke into our Log8 equation. If you want to account for this the equation is a little more tricky.

Here goes it.

So our original equation is x=y*sqrt[37.2fn(z^3)log8]

Here is the updated version.

x=y*sqrt[37.2fn(z^3)log8] / (n*n^1)*(m/fpt)

Where n = the number of tables currently running at Party Poker... which can be attained at Poker Pulse or on the lobby screen.

Where m = the number of players on Party Poker, obtained in the lobby.

Where ppt = players per table, because you must know the average number of players at a table to within the hundredth of a point in order to know how many hole cards are being dealt. I have found that on most evening nights this number is always between 7.11 and 7.23 (more people play shorthanded tables which brings the average under the 8 which should be expected). So make sure all you new pattern mappers are using this updated info.

[RocketManJames]

WOW! The cat really is out of the bag about the vulnerabilities of pseudo-random number generators. What some and some of you may or may not know is that Party Poker is about to switch their random number generator from an LCG to an ICG/LCG hybrid.

LCG's are Linear Congruential Generators. ICG's are Inversive Congruential Generators. A simple search for the above terms will give you PLENTY of information. I will not go into detail. The trick is to now predict which generator is being used at any time. My own code has been tested with both types of number generators and can determine within 15-20 hands which pattern map to use.

Why purchase a pattern map from someone else when you can have one that is already able to handle the future of Party and Empire poker. Note that my code will NOT work for Paradise poker, as their particular LCG is based on Fishman's work (no poker pun intended).

Please PM me for more information on Pattern Map generation and predictability of WHICH number generator is being used for a given table.

-RMJ

[Duke]

Sarcastic threads are more like no-limit than limit. You're not looking to make a little at a time over the long haul with a 25% certainty getting whatever to 1 on your call, you're looking at avoiding going to the felt in one hand.

~D

[Adde]

... ill go 75/25 on this deal. You can have 75%

No affiliate spam, please! Mat?

[Ulysses]

Your post is completely incorrect. Party pattern maps all apply to card distribution patterns at a single table. How many players or tables are active on the whole site are irrelevant. Thanks for trying, sport, but obviously you're just trying to look like you know something about pattern maps by tossing around some meaningless additions to the core scaling function when you obviously have no experience with them.

[Ulysses]

Hmmm.. There might be something to this post. RMJ, please do make any further posts regarding this information on this forum. I will PM you for more specific details and perhaps we can work out an "arrangement."

[Shaun]

If you email me a hand history with 100 hands and delete the turn and river cards, I too can predict what they will be. How I would do this?

LOL

I would request the hand history numbers from Party Poker.

[Ulysses]

I'm sorry, but at this time I am not offering any pattern maps for no-limit play.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
If you email me a hand history with 100 hands and delete the turn and river cards, I too can predict what they will be. How I would do this?

LOL

I would request the hand history numbers from Party Poker.


[/ QUOTE ]

Obviously, the bidders remove all of the hand history numbers before sending me the sequence.

[ElSapo]

Ah, it seems as though rec.poker has picked it up. You've gone and blown it now, the secret is really out...

[Vehn]

Those people on RGP are being mean to me /images/graemlins/frown.gif

[PuppetMaster]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but at this time I am not offering any pattern maps for no-limit play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does this mean that these pattern maps will not work on no-limit?

[RocketManJames]

The problem with no-limit play is that since bet sizes are variable as opposed to fixed, the LCG that Party uses sufficiently alters the patterns. Please see my earlier post in this thread for more information about LCGs. Also, note that Party is going to switch over to an LCG/ICG hybrid to curtail the benefits of using the old pattern maps. My pattern map generator has been tested with a myriad of number generators, and *might* work for no-limit play. Please PM me for details.

-RMJ

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but at this time I am not offering any pattern maps for no-limit play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does this mean that these pattern maps will not work on no-limit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, they should "work" in theory but I haven't collected enough data in no-limit play.

Pattern maps are a lot more useful in limit play. If you know you will have the best hand, you just bet and raise at every chance and scoop in the money. As an added benefit, people will give you more action because they will think you are an idiot fish.

However, in no-limit, even if you know you will have the best hand on the end, it is much harder to make money. Note that the pattern maps provide only limited information about the cards your opponent holds. So, even if you know you will have the best hand at the end, what do you do? Bet all-in? What if they all fold? Check to the end and bet big there? See what I mean? It's much harder to win lots of money because you need your opponent to have a big hand or draw to call a big bet - and you risk having them fold if you bet too big. As I said, in limit you simply bet and raise when you know you're going to end up with the best hand and scoop in the money at the end.

[PuppetMaster]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'm sorry, but at this time I am not offering any pattern maps for no-limit play.

[/ QUOTE ]
Does this mean that these pattern maps will not work on no-limit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, they should "work" in theory but I haven't collected enough data in no-limit play.

Pattern maps are a lot more useful in limit play. If you know you will have the best hand, you just bet and raise at every chance and scoop in the money. As an added benefit, people will give you more action because they will think you are an idiot fish.

However, in no-limit, even if you know you will have the best hand on the end, it is much harder to make money. Note that the pattern maps provide only limited information about the cards your opponent holds. So, even if you know you will have the best hand at the end, what do you do? Bet all-in? What if they all fold? Check to the end and bet big there? See what I mean? It's much harder to win lots of money because you need your opponent to have a big hand or draw to call a big bet - and you risk having them fold if you bet too big. As I said, in limit you simply bet and raise when you know you're going to end up with the best hand and scoop in the money at the end.

[/ QUOTE ]
One thing i dont understand.
Is all this posible because Party itself has tweaked the deck?
Or is Party honest, and this is just a loop-hole in their RNG?

[Lori]

Or is Party honest, and this is just a loop-hole in their RNG?

It is a loop-hole, along the lines of the old Planet one, but far more complex.

How Planet's shuffle was beaten. (http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/entdev/article.php/616221)

Lori

[Ulysses]

I've responded to a number of PMs, but rather than respond to the rest, I'll just post this here:

I'm only doing this (running hand history sequences) for serious bidders and I've set up an escrow account for these bidders to place a retainer in. I've currently run multiple 100-hand sequences successfully for 8 bidders and the current bid is well into the six figures. Most of these bidders represent high-stakes individual gamblers or consortiums.

I have also decided to offer ONE and only ONE free copy to whoever can post the best essay in this thread describing why they deserve a free copy. I'm doing that both as a sort of public service but also so there will be one amateur gambler who can post testimonials about his or her results (I doubt any of the bidders will publicize their usage).

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]

One thing i dont understand.
Is all this posible because Party itself has tweaked the deck?
Or is Party honest, and this is just a loop-hole in their RNG?

[/ QUOTE ]

Good question. Honestly, I don't know. All I know is that the patterns exist and can be mapped and thus future cards can be accurately predicted. I do not know what causes these patterns to exist.

[PuppetMaster]

[ QUOTE ]
Or is Party honest, and this is just a loop-hole in their RNG?

It is a loop-hole, along the lines of the old Planet one, but far more complex.

How Planet's shuffle was beaten. (http://itmanagement.earthweb.com/entdev/article.php/616221)

Lori

[/ QUOTE ]
Then why did Ulysses say in the original post that he noticed he wasnt making enough money..Is it because other players are using pattern maps?

I thought he meant that party's deck was fixed for more suckouts...

[Lori]

The suckout theory would kill pattern maps, as he has already explained.

The problem is, that there is a kind of near-recurring pattern, but occasionally it wanders off in a chaotic fashion.

To see what I mean try inputting 2(x^2)-1 into a calulator and keep hitting the '=' sign, there is a kind of pattern, but not exact.

Pattern mapping works on a principle similar to this, except it is having to do it backwards from the data and this is where slight errors creep in.

The more complex the algorithm, the better the pattern map can become.

Edit: Please note, x is firstly a value between (not including) 0 and 1, and is then the result you get.

Lori

[dm34]

I deserve the free copy because I used to know a bear named Bobo.

Bobo led an interesting life. He was born to Bertha and Ivan, two free-range bears deep in the Russian wilderness. His cubhood was ideal: playing with his brothers, brutally slaughtering innocent fish, and running around joyously. This joy was not to last. One day, while Bobo was roaming through the woods with his brother Tigarancus, a group of drunken Russian poachers attacked them. Tigarancus tripped Bobo, said “So long, loser,” and ran away. Bobo, his heart broken, was taken away in a net. He was soon sold to a circus.

Bobo immediately began to undergo rigorous training. He was forced to run 5 miles a day, and lifted weights 5 days a week. His previous girly frame was soon transformed into that of a strapping young cub. His sex appeal now up to an appropriate level, Bobo was taught to ride a bike. He struggled at first, constantly falling over. Soon, however, he got the hang of it and was riding with no hands. After 2 years of training, Bobo was finally unveiled to the crowds. Everyone loved him; he soon became a huge star, making the rounds through the Russian talk show circuit (he even made an appearance on the hit shows “Boris O’Brien” and “Oprahchinovi.”).

This honeymoon was not to last. One day a small, rat like child attempted to touch Bobo during a show. As a huge star, Bobo did not allow the unwashed masses to fondle his beautiful skin. Thus, he promptly tore the child’s arm off. For some reason this behavior was deemed unacceptable, and Bobo was sentenced to death. Due to his previously unmentioned ability to understand human speech, Bobo decided to make an escape. He tore out the jugular of the night watchman (a father of 4) and also killed the janitor for good measure (loving grandfather). His fur stained red, Bobo made his escape into the dark Russian night.

Finally free, Bobo only had one thing in mind: revenge. Tigarancus had to pay. And pay dearly. Very dearly. Very. So he took off back to his home, hitchhiking when possible (and brutally killing each driver after he was dropped off). He finally made it back to his forest, only to discover that Tigarancus was a powerful Bearfia boss and that he has murdered Bertha and Ivan. This would make things more difficult for Bobo, but he had a plan. This plan involved killing all of Tigarancus’ underlings. This was completed swiftly, leading to a final one on one showdown.

Bobo charged Tigarancus, but was knocked down with a Shoryuken uppercut. A retaliatory sonic boom gave Bobo the upper hand, and he finished Tigarancus off with a viscous claw thrust to the throat, spraying blood everywhere. A babality followed, and Bobo was victorious. Yes, thought Bobo, I am victorious. I am awesome and powerful and unstoppable. He was then shot by a hunter. Lying on the ground, he made one final request: please give DM34 a free copy of a pattern map for Party Poker.

Please make his wish come true.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]

Then why did Ulysses say in the original post that he noticed he wasnt making enough money..Is it because other players are using pattern maps?

[/ QUOTE ]

Lori might be correct in her analysis, but my hunch is that it was due to other players using pattern maps.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

[ QUOTE ]
I have also decided to offer ONE and only ONE free copy to whoever can post the best essay in this thread describing why they deserve a free copy. I'm doing that both as a sort of public service but also so there will be one amateur gambler who can post testimonials about his or her results (I doubt any of the bidders will publicize their usage).

[/ QUOTE ]

Once again... best thread ever!!! This one is going to go down in history.

[Inthacup]

Agreed. This thread could easily surpass the What's wrong with the SS thread in the NVG forum. The amount of quality in this one is already much higher.



Cup

[PuppetMaster]

Thanks.

[RocketManJames]

I have seen Ulysses' generous offer. I, too, have decided (along with my partner) that we could also give away a single copy of our application. It comes with a dongle (attaches to your serial port) which prevents you from copying it and giving it away. The version we will provide, however, will be a lite-version. It will NOT work on ICG-based number generators. So, if Party chooses to go that route, you'll need the one that can determine which pattern map generation is required.

How about an essay between 250 and 500 words that argues either FOR or AGAINST a consumption tax.

For more starter's read the analyses here: http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ConsumptionTax.html

Best essayist will be rewarded.

Good luck.

-RMJ

[Ulysses]

I'll select a winner in one week. If a really great essay goes up, though, I'll just select it and end the contest right then. So, if you're interested, get your essay up as quickly as possible.

[RocketManJames]

I just saw that Ulysses' essay contest ends in one week. I will have an earlier deadline of 3 days. See my "In the Spirit of Giving..." post for details.

Of course, my application comes with a dongle, so maybe you want to enter my essay contest first.

-RMJ

[brassnuts]

I can't take this anymore. Enough of this BS, I hope that nobody has gone through with any offers to Ulysses. Several VERY reliable sources on the inside at Party have noted that they have been aware about pattern maps for some months now. And, as a result, have reworked some of the sub-level interpolation algorithms. And, after seeing some of the comments by Ulysses on this thread, it is obvious that he has not made the proper adjustments to his map. If he is using the log8, which still works as the basis for pattern mapping (for all online poker), he will need to implement a looping mechanism into his code to dampen the deviation. I am confident in his ability to be able to do this, but I repeat, it's quite apparent that his current system is seriously flawed and out-dated.

[jek187]

Here is a transcript of my conversation w/Party support about pattern maps:

Indira: Thank you for holding. Indira has joined this chat session.
jek187:Hi, I've been hearing quite a bit about players using "pattern maps" on Party Poker.
jek187:Can I buy one?
Indira:Hi
Indira:Can you please give me more details about the situation?
jek187:Players on the 2+2 and RGP forums have a pattern map which can predict the turn and river cards with 85% accuracy
jek187:They are offering to sell them for over 6 figure amounts, or a really good essay.
jek187:I was hoping to buy one direct from Party.
Indira:We are very sorry to inform you that we do not have "pattern maps"
Indira:To ensure total fairness to each and every player on our tables, our software operates with a Random Number Generator system. This system operates at the highest level of encryption and randomness, to ensure fairness without exception.
jek187:Ok, I guess I'll just have to get an investment group together and buy one from a 3rd party then.
Indira:This is the system that shuffles the decks and pulls the cards, so that all players have the same likelihood of getting cards. A good random number generator is one that generates numbers that are:

*Evenly distributed, and not related to each other in any way
*Unpredictable

Our Random Number Generator system has been certified by BMM International, a highly reputable Software Auditing Company.
jek187:Does x=y*sqrt(37.2fn(z^3)log8) mean anything to you?
Indira:Absolutely not......
Indira:As I said......
jek187:Ok, well ty for your time...you may want to alert your programmers to this.

I think Party is just playing dumb. Maybe Empire will sell their pattern map.

[jek187]

[ QUOTE ]
he will need to implement a looping mechanism into his code to dampen the deviation. I am confident in his ability to be able to do this, but I repeat, it's quite apparent that his current system is seriously flawed and out-dated.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would imagine that for the 6 figure prices Ulysses is quoting, it would come with a period of support where he would issue updates. Maybe I'm mistaken...but he seems like a reasonable fellow.

[PuppetMaster]

[ QUOTE ]
Here is a transcript of my conversation w/Party support about pattern maps:

Indira: Thank you for holding. Indira has joined this chat session.
jek187:Hi, I've been hearing quite a bit about players using "pattern maps" on Party Poker.
jek187:Can I buy one?
Indira:Hi
Indira:Can you please give me more details about the situation?
jek187:Players on the 2+2 and RGP forums have a pattern map which can predict the turn and river cards with 85% accuracy
jek187:They are offering to sell them for over 6 figure amounts, or a really good essay.
jek187:I was hoping to buy one direct from Party.
Indira:We are very sorry to inform you that we do not have "pattern maps"
Indira:To ensure total fairness to each and every player on our tables, our software operates with a Random Number Generator system. This system operates at the highest level of encryption and randomness, to ensure fairness without exception.
jek187:Ok, I guess I'll just have to get an investment group together and buy one from a 3rd party then.
Indira:This is the system that shuffles the decks and pulls the cards, so that all players have the same likelihood of getting cards. A good random number generator is one that generates numbers that are:

*Evenly distributed, and not related to each other in any way
*Unpredictable

Our Random Number Generator system has been certified by BMM International, a highly reputable Software Auditing Company.
jek187:Does x=y*sqrt(37.2fn(z^3)log8) mean anything to you?
Indira:Absolutely not......
Indira:As I said......
jek187:Ok, well ty for your time...you may want to alert your programmers to this.

I think Party is just playing dumb. Maybe Empire will sell their pattern map.

[/ QUOTE ]
that was so funny

[Inthacup]

jek187:Does x=y*sqrt(37.2fn(z^3)log8) mean anything to you?


ROFLMAO. Great post Jek.


Cup

[BreakEvenPlayer]

fuggin hilarious jek!

[Cubswin]

I bet you party got word of this system that underminds their RNG and tried to shut down 2+2. The timing was just very suspicious....anyone else think this?

regards
cubswin

[jek187]

I think DS was using 2+2's servers to make his own pattern map. It's the only logical explanation.

[Abe]

Hey guys,

Sorry I am so late to this thread. But I had to go to Tunica again and drank way too much beer.

Anyway--its been a while since we had a good "Kook" post. I was wondering where they all went.

I was "chit-chatting" with a knowledgeable player in the UB 2 cent-4 cent Triple Draw Lowball game. And he said that the pattern maps have made him lots of $.

See? Its all true.

[Cubswin]

Had anyone come up with a pattern map for predicting triple draw cards yet? That would surely be a big money maker.

regards
cubswin

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
jek187:They are offering to sell them for over 6 figure amounts, or a really good essay.

[/ QUOTE ]

That is my favorite part.

[gabyyyyy]

Brassnuts you must think we are all idiots. Where did you get this so called inside info from? Is it from the same place where these retarded customer service people work?

This is incredible news, party is crapping in there pants. The thing is, party can't fix the flaw, because they PUT the flaw in the system to begin with. If they fix it that will mean the house players won't be able to rip off the customers anymore.

Way to go ULYSSES!

[gabyyyyy]

Your going down!

[JTG51]

An appearance from gabyyyyyy was the only thing this thread was missing. This is now officially my favorite 2+2 thread of all time.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

amen to that.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
An appearance from gabyyyyyy was the only thing this thread was missing. This is now officially my favorite 2+2 thread of all time.

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL, good point, I guess if she doesn't get it, noone does.

[jek187]

[ QUOTE ]
This is now officially my favorite 2+2 thread of all time.

[/ QUOTE ]

I can pinpoint when this happened for me as well. It was when I 1st read this line:

[ QUOTE ]
he promptly tore the child’s arm off. For some reason this behavior was deemed unacceptable

[/ QUOTE ]

[gabyyyyy]

"LOL, good point, I guess if she doesn't get it, noone does"

Get what?

This is unreal evidence. Party poker is done screwing their players.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

Well you gotta admit the opening line to the thread was pretty golden in of itself: "So I was playing $.50-$1 holdem at Paradise when..."

[Vehn]

Dear Penthouse Forum,

I never believed it could happen to me, but there I was, playing $.50/$1 hold'em on Paradise Poker, when suddenly "Ulysslut" sent me a private message...

[mktrout]

Here is my essay, can I please have a pattern map, I need to pay off student loans and make my parents proud.


Emancipating America

Executive Summary

This study demonstrates how the individual and corporate income tax, the capital gains tax, the estate and gift taxes, and non-trust-fund excise taxes all could be replaced with a national sales tax (NST). The NST would exempt low-income Americans from tax and raise the same amount of revenue currently collected. The ideal NST plan would include the following features:

A 15 percent sales tax on the final purchase of goods and services at the retail level. The NST would be similar to state sales taxes. The rate should decline in future years to 10 to 12 percent as economic growth allows more revenue to be raised at a lower rate and government downsizing continues.

A universal rebate for every household, exempting all consumption up to the poverty level. That would mean that the first $18,588 of consumption each year for a family of four would be tax-free. The rebate could be provided as a refundable credit against the payroll tax.

Reimbursement to states and retailers of the cost of collecting the national sales tax.

Abolition of the Internal Revenue Service. The states should bear the primary responsibility for administering the national sales tax. The IRS would be abolished, and a much smaller, less intrusive federal excise tax bureau would collect trust fund excise taxes such as the gasoline tax. The Social Security Administration would enforce and collect payroll taxes.


Introduction

Discussions about alternative tax reform initiatives center around three major proposals: the Armey-Shelby flat tax that would eliminate all tax deductions and lower the annual tax rate to 17 percent; the Domenici-Nunn USA (for unlimited savings allowance) tax, which combines a consumed-income tax and a business transfer tax; and the national sales tax (NST). In March 1996 the national sales tax picked up political momentum with the introduction of the first comprehensive NST legislation, H.R. 3039, sponsored by Reps. Dan Schaefer (R-Colo.) and Billy Tauzin (R-La.). [1] Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.), a long-time advocate of replacing the federal income tax with a national sales tax, is likely to lead a parallel effort in the Senate.

Ways and Means Committee chairman Bill Archer (R-Tex.) remains committed to "pulling the income tax out by its roots" and replacing it with a consumption tax. [2] Although Archer has commended the authors of H.R. 3039 [3] and is widely viewed as sympathetic to a national sales tax, he remains officially uncommitted about which form of consumption tax his plan will include. What is clear is that the national sales tax has moved beyond the realm of theory and is now a formal policy proposal before Congress; and it is among the top three concrete proposals in the tax reform debate on Capitol Hill.

A national sales tax to replace the personal income tax, corporate income tax, and estate and gift tax would have a salutary impact on the U.S. economy, the national standard of living, the cost of compliance, and the degree of intrusiveness of the tax system in citizens' lives. [4]

This analysis details the framework for a well-formulated national sales tax alternative. It addresses such sticky issues as the proper sales tax base; provisions to shield low-income families from the tax; and the tax treatment of nonprofit organizations, housing, government services, and financial intermediation services. Some, but not all, of the ideas set forth here are contained in H.R. 3039.

A properly constructed NST plan would replace all of the revenue from the individual and corporate income tax, transfer taxes, and most non-trust-fund excise taxes with a single 15 percent flat-rate tax on the purchase of final goods and services at the retail level. Fifteen percent would be the tax-inclusive rate. In other words, an 85 cent item would require a 15 cent sales tax and cost a total of $1 including tax. Even making the unrealistically adverse assumption that a low-rate NST would have no significant impact on economic growth rates, compliance costs, federal spending on social programs, or federal borrowing costs, a 15 percent national sales tax would provide more than sufficient tax receipts for revenue neutrality while exempting expenditures below the poverty level from tax. The plan should allow for a rebate to all households on their purchases up to the poverty level--thus exempting low-income households from the tax and allowing all taxpayers to purchase the necessities of life tax-free. To protect against "cascading" effects--imposing multiple levels of taxation on the same product--the sales tax would exempt from tax inputs at each intermediate stage of production.

We have calculated the rate of sales tax required to abolish the employer and employee shares of the 15.3 percent Medicare and Social Security payroll tax in addition to the income tax. We find that the rate required in 1995 for that alternative tax plan would be 23 percent (tax inclusive). Unless otherwise indicated, the discussion that follows does not refer to a plan replacing the payroll tax.

This analysis addresses many common questions about the national sales tax: What will be the tax base? How will the tax be administered? How will the tax be enforced? It also highlights how the NST proposal disposes of several problems commonly associated with alternative taxing schemes and proposes remedies for some of the problems peculiar to the sales tax. For example: How does the tax treat used property or "old capital" that was purchased with after-income-tax income? How does the tax treat financial intermediation services? Government services? Not-for-profit organizations? Finally, our analysis discusses some of the equity issues that arise when a tax system based on income is replaced with one based on consumption.

Why a National Sales Tax?

The current U.S. income tax system suffers from a multitude of defects that are well recognized by those who have to comply with the tax code each year. A major objective of the NST plan is to fix those deficiencies. For example, an NST should promote higher rates of economic growth by dramatically reducing the tax bias against work, savings, and investment. The marginal tax rate on consumed income that workers and investors face would be much lower, and the return on savings and investment would not be taxed until spent. Moreover, an NST would reduce economically inefficient distortions in the pattern of investments that are now dictated largely by tax shelters, deductions, and special-interest loopholes.

Although the magnitude of the economic growth generated by a single flat-rate tax system generates lively debate among economists, the large marginal tax rate reductions in any NST plan--or an Armey-Forbes style flat-rate income tax plan--combined with neutral tax treatment of savings vs. consumption, will have powerful positive effects on the economy. Work by Harvard economist Dale Jorgenson shows a 13 percent initial increase in the gross domestic product and a 9 percent long-range increase. [5] Similarly, Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff predicts a 7 to 14 percent increase in national output within 20 years, about half of which occurs within 2 years. [6]

The economic growth predicted by macroeconomic models is primarily a function of greater productivity due to increased capital investment. Those models typically do not assume large labor market responsiveness. Nor do they usually account for the large capital inflow from abroad that a sales tax is likely to engender. They tend to attach little importance to microeconomic efficiencies that would be caused by eliminating tax preferences. And they do not account for productivity gains from massively reduced compliance costs or from higher rates of technological innovation. Thus, there is reason to believe that replacing the current system with a national sales tax may cause economic growth even more robust than that predicted by the Jorgenson or Kotlikoff models.

One of the immediate consequences of a national sales tax is that interest rates would fall. Rates would drop in the direction of the current tax-free interest rate as the tax wedge between the pre-tax and the after-tax rates of return was removed. [7] We do not know precisely how much interest rates would fall because demand for credit would rise as well, given the increased after-tax rate of return on capital investment under an NST approach. [8] But if the standard prediction of a 200 basis point decline in interest rates is correct, the result would be to reduce federal borrowing costs by as much as $75 billion annually. [9] Industries and individuals that are sensitive to interest rates--such as homeowners who might wish to refinance their houses--would also benefit.

International capital flows to the United States are also likely to increase under an NST regime. Although the portfolio interest exception [10] and numerous treaties have reduced or eliminated the withholding on passive income on foreign investment, the complete removal of all taxation of nonconsumed income would increase the attractiveness of the United States for foreign investors. Direct investment by foreign firms in U.S. plants would be much more attractive than under current law. [11] Expatriated U.S. investment dollars can also be expected to find their way home. In the 1980s, when top federal tax rates were reduced from 70 percent to 28 percent, the United States attracted a net inflow of roughly 500 billion dollars. [12] Given the proposed tax treatment and the political stability of the United States, the nation would become the ultimate global tax haven--to the benefit of U.S. industry, workers, and consumers. [13]

Another economic advantage of eliminating the income tax would likely be a windfall produced by liberating capital unproductively spent on the cost of complying with the current complex tax system. [14] Currently, businesses and individuals in the United States spend more than $150 billion to comply with the federal income tax system. [15] In 1995 alone, compliance costs averaged an estimated 20 to 50 percent of the total revenue raised by the tax system and 1.9 to 4.1 percent of the GDP. Those compliance costs have insidious effects on small firms and potential small firm start-ups, which disproportionately bear their burden. As noted in the Kemp Commission report, small corporations endure compliance costs 3.8 times the tax actually collected. [16] High compliance costs are a pronounced drag on our standard of living and the international competitiveness of all U.S.-based firms. According to the Tax Foundation, with an NST, compliance costs for businesses and workers would fall by more than 90 percent. [17] That is the equivalent of adding $1,000 to $2,500 to the income of every household in the United States.

Under the NST most Americans would be freed from the intrusive scrutiny of the IRS. More than 100 million Americans who are not business owners or self-employed would no longer have to file tax returns. The number of tax returns filed may fall as much as 80 percent. [18]

Although businesses would have to collect the NST, they would experience a dramatic decline in compliance costs. Business-to-business purchases would be exempt from tax. Vendors would simply need to keep on file copies of purchasers' exemption certificates. Retailers would be required to determine the sales that they made to consumers. Most stores have to do that under current state law. In any event, tracking consumer sales would be a much simpler task than complying with the complications and mountains of paperwork associated with the existing income tax system. Business compliance costs would decline with the elimination of

the alternative minimum tax,
multiple depreciation schedules,
complex international tax provisions,
complex pension and deferred compensation rules, and
uniform capitalization rules.
The advantages of lower compliance costs and a more productive economy could be amplified if states conformed their own sales taxes to the federal NST. Currently, 45 states and the District of Columbia impose sales and use taxes. [19] To the extent that those states were to decide to conform (the choice would be theirs), retailers would no longer be required to cope with various exemptions and local rates. If jurisdictions that already collect a sales tax conformed their systems to the federal system, the marginal cost of complying with the federal sales tax system would be low, probably producing net savings to retailers compared to complying with multiple state systems (particularly if a credit of one-half of 1 percent for administrative costs is provided to retail firms, as in H.R. 3039).

That is not to say that all complexity would disappear under the NST. Complex issues still arise in the context of mixed-use property, financial intermediation services, financing leases, and other transactions. Moreover, many of the problems regarding the underground economy that are problematic under the income tax would remain, particularly those involving cash transactions made with the explicit intent of evading taxation.

Nonetheless, the problem of evasion would be manageable under an NST as the costs of compliance shrank and hostility to the tax system declined. Because of lower marginal tax rates, the benefit from lawful tax avoidance or illegal tax evasion will be less at the margin relative to either the present system [20] or competing alternative tax systems such as the USA tax [21] proposed by Senators Domenici and Nunn, which all have higher marginal tax rates. [22] Research has confirmed the intuitively obvious relationship between higher tax rates and higher rates of evasion. [23] Lower rates, all other things being equal, imply lower evasion because the benefit from evasion declines while the costs of evasion remain comparable. [24]

A national sales tax would place the responsibility for tax collection on the retail sector, a sector of the economy in which small businesses are strongly represented. Small businesses are viewed as more likely to evade taxes since the owners, who would benefit from tax evasion, are more likely to also be responsible for keeping the books and filing the tax returns. There is, of course, some truth to this proposition. A number of factors, however, would mitigate the problem. First, those small business owners who are inclined to evade the sales taxes are probably already evading the income tax and would be inclined to do so under any tax system. Second, the economic importance of small firms in the retail sector is usually grossly overstated. According to Congress's Joint Committee on Taxation, small firms account for only 14.9 percent of gross receipts by all retailers, wholesalers, and service providers. [25] Sole proprietorships, perhaps the most likely to evade tax under the present system and under a sales tax, are not included in the committee's figures.

Because the tax collection points would be concentrated at retail establishments rather than individuals or other businesses, it would be easier for revenue agents to concentrate their enforcement efforts. The collection points in an NST system would be perhaps 20 percent of those under the current income tax system or other alternative tax systems. [26] Because the number of collection points is so much lower, if enforcement funding is held equal, then the likelihood of the tax evader's being discovered is correspondingly higher. In other words, the risk of detection would increase and the risk-adjusted cost of evasion would increase. Increased evasion among retailers would, in our judgment, be outweighed by a rise in business compliance resulting from greater simplicity and the perceived greater legitimacy of the tax system, reduced temptation due to lower marginal tax rates, [27] and higher risk of detection due to a smaller collection population. Even if evasion rates were higher under a sales tax, however, they would have to be much higher to justify, even from the narrow view of government revenue, the huge compliance costs that are largely deductible as a business expense. If compliance proved to be a problem, information reporting along the lines of today's Form 1099 could be implemented to facilitate cross-checking by government auditors. Such reporting would reflect the quantity of product sold to retailers. An auditor could then ensure that the retailer's books either reflected the sale of those products or that the products were in inventory.

Among all tax proposals--and particularly in comparison with the current tax system--the NST would be the tax most clearly visible to the consumer. Any NST plan should require vendors to separately state and charge the tax imposed. In that way, the consumer will see the full cost of government every time taxable property or services are purchased. Under the sales tax, hidden taxes would be eliminated.

Calculating the Tax Base

Perhaps the most difficult issue with respect to the national sales tax is deciding what tax rate to impose. To establish the proper rate, we need to first define the proper tax base. What is to be taxed? An ideal NST should have a wide tax base with few, if any, exemptions. Exempting certain goods and services--such as food and medicine--is problematic for two reasons: First, the more exemptions that are carved out, the higher the rate will be on everything else. Second, exemptions inject distortions into the tax system and eliminate the neutral tax treatment of goods and industries.

Thus, the NST should be imposed on gross payments for the use, consumption, or enjoyment in the United States of any taxable property or service. Taxable property and services include any tangible property (including rents and leaseholds on tangible property) and services. Securities, contract rights, copyrights, patents, and the like are not taxable. Housing, financial intermediation services, government goods and services that are sold to the public--such as bus rides, postage stamps, and publications of the Government Printing Office--gaming services, and the unrelated business activities of not-for-profit organizations are also included in the tax base. Property (or services) produced or rendered outside of the United States (imports) would be taxed at the point of sale. Thus, virtually any consumer good (ranging from food to video games to cars) would be taxed. Apartment and house rents and home purchases also would be subject to tax. Goods purchased abroad by consumers would be taxed upon entry into the United States. [28] Services to individuals and households (including, for example, services provided by barbers, plumbers, therapists, accountants, lawyers, doctors, and the like) would also be taxed.

The sales tax base is not exactly equivalent to personal consumption expenditures as defined in the national income product accounts. Adjustments, both enlarging and reducing the tax base, must be made, as shown in Table 1. [29] Using 1995 as the base year, the total sales tax base was $5,978 billion. This includes all final-use goods and services including government expenditures except education.

How would an NST plan prevent tax cascading? Cascading refers to the repeated taxation of the same items as they are sold and resold at successive stages of production and trade. Cascading is a deficiency of many state sales taxes. [30] Under an NST, exemptions should be provided for purchases for resale, purchases to produce taxable property or services, and exports. A good or service should be defined as "purchased for resale" if it is purchased by a person in an active trade or business for the purpose of reselling it in the ordinary course of trade or business. The term "purchased to produce taxable property or services" is a general exemption meant to exempt business inputs generally. The exemption is available if the property or service is purchased for use in the production or sale of other taxable property or services. Education and training services are treated as investment expenditures rather than consumption and thus would not be taxed. Wages paid by an employer engaged in an active trade or business are not treated as taxable services. By contrast, wages paid by a household to an accountant, a maid, or a gardener would be taxable since they are providing a final-use service.

Table 1
Tax Base for National Sales Tax (billions of dollars)

Description of Taxable Item Tax Base (1995)
Personal consumption expenditures $4,924.9
Purchases of new homes 156.4
Improvements to single-family homes 73.9
Imputed rent on housing -534.3
Additional financial intermediation services 53.0
Foreign travel by U.S. residents (one-half) -26.4
Expenditures abroad by U.S. residents -2.7
Food produced and consumed on farms -0.4
State and local government consumption 682.6
State and local government gross purchases 159.1
Federal government consumption 453.8
Federal government gross purchases 62.7
Less: Education expenditures -97.5
Plus: Expenditures in U.S. by nonresidents 73.1
NST Base $5,978.2
Source: National Income Product Accounts,
Survey of Current Business, August 1996.

The NST plan must avoid cascading to ensure the same effective tax rate across all types of property and services (horizontal equality), irrespective of the number of companies or stages of production that were necessary to bring the good or service to market (vertical equality).

With a cascading tax, the effective rate increases, depending on the number of times a good changes hands before it is purchased by a consumer. There is thus a major incentive for vertical integration and for firms to perform as many functions in-house as possible, reducing economic efficiency and distorting the marketplace (largely to the detriment of small firms that do not have the capital or other resources necessary to source everything in-house). The number of firms involved in getting a product to the consumer should be thoroughly irrelevant to how heavily the good is taxed. [31]

A sales tax is not a value-added tax (VAT). A value-added tax is levied at each stage of production on the value added by the firm. [32] Value added is typically defined as gross receipts from sales less purchases from other businesses. In Europe, VATs are levied by imposing a tax on sales, whether to consumers or businesses. Businesses are then allowed to add up the taxes paid on their inputs and receive a credit for taxes paid against tax due.

Calculating the Tax Rate

In the previous section we defined the total consumption tax base for the national sales tax in calendar year 1995 as $5,978 billion. Now we ask, What rate of sales tax would need to be imposed to collect the same amount of revenue that was gathered from the income tax? Table 2 shows the total amount of federal revenues collected from taxes that would be replaced with the national sales tax. In fiscal year 1995 those revenues amounted to $803 billion ($1,293 billion if payroll taxes are also included).

Putting together the information in Tables 1 and 2, we discover that an NST with no rebate could collect the same amount of revenue ($803 billion) as the current income tax regime with a tax inclusive rate of 11.8 percent, as shown in Table 3. This tax inclusive rate with a rebate to fully protect the poor from the tax (as discussed below) would bring the rate to 14.2 percent. Throughout this study we use a rate of 15 percent, which would offset any losses from tax avoidance beyond the amount that occurs with the current income tax.

Table 2
Tax Revenues to Be Replaced by National Sales Tax, 1995 (billions of dollars)

Income tax $759.9
Estate and gift taxes 15.1
Excise taxes (estimated) 28.0
Subtotal 803.0
Payroll taxes 490.3

Total $1,293.3
Source: Federal Receipts,
Analytical Perspectives,
FY 1997 Budget of the United States Government.
Calendar year basis.



Table 3
Calculation of National Sales Tax Rate

Tax Base
(billions) Revenues to
Be Collected
(billions) Tax Rate
(tax exclusive) Tax Rate
(tax inclusive)
No rebate,
excluding payroll taxes $5,978.2 $ 803.0 13.4% 11.8%
With rebate,
excluding payroll taxes 4,841.1 803.0 16.6 14.2
No rebate,
including payroll taxes 5,978.2 1,293.2 21.6 17.8
With rebate,
including payroll taxes 4,841.1 1,293.2 26.7 21.1
Source: National Income Product Accounts, Survey of Current Business, August 1996;
Federal Receipts, Analytical Perspectives,
FY 1997 Budget of the United States Government.

It is important to distinguish between tax-inclusive and tax-exclusive rates. The income tax and the flat tax are imposed on a tax-inclusive basis while traditional sales taxes are imposed on a tax-exclusive basis. Let us take as an example someone who earns $100, pays $20 in taxes (whether an income tax, a flat tax, or a sales tax), and spends the remaining $80 on a CD player. Is the tax rate 20 percent or 25 percent? The income tax and the flat tax would be imposed on the $100 and thus the rate is 20 percent (i.e., 20/100 = 20%). The flat tax and income tax base are tax inclusive. Traditional state sales taxes are imposed on the after-tax or tax-exclusive base. Thus, we typically would say that the sales tax rate needed to raise $20 is 25 percent (i.e., 20/80 = 25%). In each case the government is extracting the same resources from the economy. Thus, to compare apples to apples, the sales tax rate that is comparable to the income tax rate or the flat tax rate is the tax-inclusive rate. [33] The 15 percent rate proposed in this analysis is the tax-inclusive rate.

That 15 percent tax rate is about half the rate that opponents of the NST claim would be required to raise as much revenue as do the current income tax and the payroll tax. Bruce Bartlett of the National Center for Policy Analysis has argued, for example, that the NST rate would need to be as high as 32 percent. [34] Bartlett's analysis is misleading because he compares apples to oranges. He compares a flat tax rate necessary to replace the current income tax structure with a national sales tax rate that would be required if every federal tax were replaced (including payroll taxes, all excise taxes, estate and gift taxes, and corporate and individual income taxes). He then proceeds to assume that many exemptions would arise under a sales tax but none would arise with a flat tax. Finally, he compares a tax-inclusive flat tax or income tax rate to a tax-exclusive sales tax rate, which has a particularly dramatic impact on the stated rate since he requires the sales tax to replace all federal taxes.

A Note on the Sales Tax and Government Output

Under the sales tax system outlined in this study, government output would not be exempted from the sales tax. Hence, government output is included in the tax base. Since this is an issue of some controversy, the following is a brief explanation of the logic for this tax treatment. [35]

Our goal is to create a sales tax system where the government can provide the same amount of output at the same real cost as it does under the current income tax structure. We want to ensure that the relative prices of a government service versus a privately provided service are unaltered after the tax shift. In sum, the government should be held harmless by the switch to the national sales tax.

The Gross Domestic Product includes both government value added and private value added. Government value added is included at "cost," which is approximately equal to the wages paid to its employees. Under the income tax, output is taxed whether the source is government or the private sector. The government pays its employees a gross amount and then deducts the income tax from their paychecks. In other words, by imposing an income tax on the wages and salaries of government workers, Uncle Sam essentially collects a tax from itself. It could, of course, just pay them a lower tax-free wage, but we choose not to do that and have higher spending (from paying pre-tax wages) and higher tax revenue (from the income tax on wages paid by the government). If government did not impose a tax on the wages of government workers, then we would not want to do so under the sales tax regime, or else those workers would be adversely affected.

Subtraction method value added taxes or VATs (sometimes referred to as "business transfer taxes" or BTTs) do not typically tax government value added. By contrast, the Hall-Rabushka flat tax introduced by Rep. Armey (R-Tex.) and Sen. Shelby (R-Ala.) does tax the income of government workers. [36] Unlike a normal subtraction method VAT, the flat tax allows a deduction for wages and then taxes wages at the individual level. Its tax base is consequently larger than a normal BTT.

Similarly, under a sales tax system, if government payrolls were not taxed, the tax base would be smaller than it is under the current income tax and under the proposed flat tax. The rate of tax on all other goods and services would thus have to be higher than under the flat tax because of that difference in the tax base.

One way of examining this issue further is to simply take the National Income Product Accounts and start calculating the tax base under the various tax systems. If one goes through that exercise to demonstrate the oft-repeated equivalence of the various consumption tax plans, it becomes clear that the flat tax has a broader base than a sales tax that does not tax government output because the flat tax taxes government wages. Similarly, a pure income tax is broader not only by the amount of unconsumed capital income but also by the amount of government wages. [37]

In the context of a sales tax, then, a payroll tax on government wages simply achieves parity with the income tax and the flat tax. Failure to impose this tax would exempt government value added from tax for the first time and constitute a dramatic incentive to consume through the medium of government. [38] In other words, failure to tax government output would alter relative prices in favor of government output. A sales tax should also be imposed on government purchases from the private sector. [39]

Protecting the Poor from the Tax

A common assumption about the NST is that it is naturally regressive, since lower income individuals spend a greater percentage of their income in any given year on consumption of necessities. Because a sales tax is an altogether different paradigm of taxation, any judgment on the equity of the tax must be accompanied by a different analysis of regressivity.

To examine how a national sales tax could address such concerns, a number of issues should be broached. First and foremost, taxing income at a graduated rate is not the only means of making a tax system progressive. Moreover, a tax on income, no matter how steeply graduated, does not necessarily make an income tax progressive. Even if progressivity is measured by the common standard of "ability to pay," the income tax is imposed only on productive labor and the return to capital and not on wealth. An income tax does not tax consumption of older accumulated capital, whereas a sales tax does.

Equally important, using taxable income as the basis to determine progressivity is necessarily based on a year-to-year analysis where the ability to pay is measured as a function of income per unit of time. Consumption over the life of a taxpayer is in many respects a better measurement of the ability to pay taxes. Because people's incomes fluctuate throughout their lives, the lifetime application of a sales tax is much less regressive than it would appear to be when examining a cross-section of taxpayers in any given year. [40] Since all income is earned for the purpose of eventual consumption, under a national sales tax, the taxpayer can defer taxation by saving his income. But he cannot forever avoid the tax.

In any case, an NST plan can be made progressive through a rebate mechanism that would shelter low-income people from paying the tax. One manner in which the NST could be made less regressive would be to exempt certain necessities--such as food and clothing--from the tax. That approach would exempt, however, the most expensive food (lobster and caviar) and the most expensive clothing ($1,000 designer suits). It is a very inefficient means of providing tax relief to lower and middle income Americans and would necessitate a much higher overall rate. [41] A more neutral and less distortive approach is to simply provide each family a level of consumption free of tax by providing a rebate of the tax on expenditures up to the poverty level. That is the device we recommend and the approach chosen by Representatives Schaefer and Tauzin in H.R. 3039. [42]

The rebate could work as follows: A family consumption refund would be established for each household at an amount equal to the sales tax rate times the poverty level. The poverty level is defined by the Department of Health and Human Services guidelines and should be raised by the sales tax rate. [43] For a family of four, the HHS poverty level for 1996 is $15,800, so the sales tax poverty level would be $18,588. The annualized rebate, which would be refundable for households with earnings below the poverty level, would therefore be $2,788. Assuming the head of household was paid 26 times per year, the rebate amount included in each paycheck would be $107.23. Earnings would be reported to the Social Security Administration. Employers would pay less payroll tax, and the Treasury would reimburse the SSA for the rebate amounts provided to families in order to ensure that the balance in the trust funds was unchanged. [44] Only the source of the payments to the trust funds would change. [45]

Families with no annual wages and salaries would apply directly to the Social Security Administration for a rebate check. Table 4 indicates the applicable poverty thresholds and maximum rebates for 1996 assuming a 15 percent national sales tax rate. [46]

All workers would receive a rebate up to the maximum rebate amount shown in the table. Thus, the average tax rate for a family of four earning and spending $37,176 would be 7.5 percent. The average tax rate for a family of four earning and spending $74,352 would be 11.25 percent. Figure 1 illustrates how the average tax rate increases with spending. This assumes that the sales tax falls on the consumer. The view that it falls on the factors of production is commonly, though by no means universally, held by economists.

The family consumption allowance approach has several effects. First, it makes the sales tax applicable only to consumption beyond the necessities of life. Second, it makes the tax in effect progressive, not only because it is based on consumption, a better index of true ability to pay, but because--if one wants to continue to view progressivity through an income tax lens--it entirely exempts lower income workers. Third, unlike most state taxes, it does not undertake the complex and politicized task of determining what to tax and what to exempt, thereby minimizing administrative and compliance questions and economic distortions.

Table 4
Poverty Thresholds and Maximum Rebates

Family Size Applicable Maximum
Poverty Level Rebate
One $ 9,106 $1,366
Two 12,188 1,828
Three 15,271 2,291
Four 18,588 2,788
Five 21,435 3,215


Figure 1
15 Percent National Sales Tax: Effective Tax Rate with Poverty Exemption for Family of Four

Source: Authors' calculations.

The rebate is universal, meaning that every household regardless of income would receive relief from the tax up to the poverty level. Because the poverty level is adjusted for family size, families with children would receive a larger rebate than childless households. Notice in Table 4, for example, that the rebate for a couple with three children (a household size of 5) would be almost twice as large as the rebate for a couple with no kids (a household size of 2). This ensures that the NST plan does not impose an unfair tax burden on families with children--which tend to have higher consumption demands.

We believe that such a rebate mechanism is sensible on both political and equity grounds. Table 5 shows that a refundable rebate would cost the Treasury $205 billion a year. The revenue-neutral tax inclusive tax rate would rise to 14.2 percent.

Table 5
Estimates of Rebate Cost (1996 poverty level)

Number in Household Households
(thousands) 1996 Sales Tax
Poverty Level Rebate Cost*
$ billions
One 23,611 $9,106 $32
Two 31,211 12,188 57
Three 16,898 15,271 39
Four 15,073 18,588 42
Five 6,749 21,435 22
Six 2,186 24,262 8
Seven 1,379 27,089 6
Total 97,107 not applicable $205
Reduction for lack
of refundability 10
Total rebate $195
* Calculated by multiplying the number of households by the maximum rebate amount, as shown in Table 4.

Payroll Taxes

One way of providing extra relief to lower income working families is to abolish the payroll tax for Social Security and Medicare as well as the income tax and then to raise the NST rate accordingly. The Social Security payroll tax is regressive (if viewed without reference to the benefits structure) because it is imposed on the first dollar earned and is capped--at $62,700 of income in 1996. The Medicare portion of the tax is imposed on all wages and is not subject to a cap. Eliminating the payroll tax would shift the tax burden onto more affluent taxpayers.

If the payroll tax were also replaced with the NST, the new tax-inclusive rate would rise to 21 percent in 1995 and the tax-exclusive rate to 27 percent. The figures are shown in Table 3.

Administration of the National Sales Tax

Ideally, states, both because they have the most experience administering sales taxes and because of the principles of federalism, should be the primary administrators of the federal sales tax system. [47] The federal government would act only as the administrator of last resort and in most cases would only monitor the collection activities of the states. The states would be provided with three strong inducements to function as administrators:

States would be provided with a percentage of the revenues collected and remitted to the federal government to compensate them for administration costs. H.R. 3039 provides a 1 percent fee. That would ensure that the NST plan does not impose an unfunded mandate on the states. Since the marginal cost to a state of collecting the federal tax in addition to its own sales tax (for which it already incurs costs) would be quite small, the 1 percent fee (on total revenue collected) should constitute a strong incentive to become a conforming and administering state.
The information sharing, allocation, and destination rules that should be part of such a plan would, for the first time, provide the states with a practical means of taxing mail order and other sales of goods shipped into their jurisdictions from out-of-state vendors--but only if they became conforming and administering states. A conforming state is a state that has conformed its state sales tax to the broad federal sales tax base. An administering state is a state that chooses to administer the federal sales tax for the federal government. In the event that a state does not conform or administer the tax, the federal government would function as the tax administrator.
The broader federal tax base would enable states to increase the breadth of their own tax bases (and, presumably, lower the state sales tax rate).
What about the five states that currently have no sales tax? An NST would not force them to adopt a state sales tax if they chose not to do so. The federal government would directly administer the national sales tax in those states. Perhaps the federal government would choose to contract with the state to collect the federal tax even in the absence of a state sales tax, although the federal government may have reservations about allowing a state without sales tax experience to do so. Alternatively, the non-sales-tax states could choose to allow another state under contract to administer the federal sales tax collections in their jurisdictions. [48]

States would be permitted to retain their state income tax systems if they chose to--though without a federal income tax system in place, those systems would be much more difficult to administer and enforce. We believe that states would have a strong incentive to eliminate their own income taxes and to piggyback on the federal sales tax system, much as many states piggyback on the federal income tax system today. In most states that would create a combined federal-state sales tax (tax inclusive) of 20 to 25 percent.

Vendors Would Collect and Remit Taxes to the States

The responsibility to collect and remit taxes would fall upon the vendor--in most cases the retail business. Taxes would be paid monthly. Businesses collecting and remitting taxes or purchasing goods exempt from tax would be required to keep records for a period of three years after filing a report or asserting an exemption. Those records would allow audits of businesses, including, when appropriate, cross-firm audits such as occur in connection with existing state sales taxes. The state administrator would have subpoena power, the power to audit, the power to levy, and the authority to issue tax exemption certificates. [49]

To ensure maximum visibility, the NST should require that the sales tax be separately stated and charged on each receipt of final sale. Specifically, each receipt should be required to show the price of the property or service exclusive of taxes, the tax paid, the tax rate, the price of the property or service including tax paid, the name of the vendor, the registration number of the vendor, and the date of sale. De minimis rules should be established to exempt gross payments received in connection with casual or isolated sales by persons not engaged in an active trade or business.

Reimbursing Businesses for Collecting the Tax

Any NST plan must spread the hidden costs of compliance equitably among all taxpayers. Unlike the current income tax system--which is the largest of all the unfunded mandates imposed on employers--a sales tax regime should include payment to firms for their compliance burden. An administration credit should be provided to retailers equal to at least the one-half of 1 percent of the revenue collected and remitted that H.R. 3039 provides. In 1995 that credit would have provided a return of nearly $4 billion to the retailing community. [50] H.R. 3039 would also provide a compliance equipment cost credit equal to 50 percent of the cost that vendors incurred if they needed to purchase new equipment to comply with the receipt requirements. That credit would considerably ease the costs of transition by retailers with less capable point-of-sale systems.

Abolition of the IRS

The Internal Revenue Service should be disbanded as quickly as possible after the establishment of the NST and certainly within three years. Some transition period is, of course, required so that the IRS can administer the income tax (collect deficiencies, conduct audits, provide refunds) for the years prior to its abolition. Out-year appropriations for the IRS should decline and then be suspended as part of the enacting legislation. All IRS tax records should be destroyed within five years of the new law's enactment. A new excise tax bureau would be established within the Treasury Department to collect remaining excise taxes. The Social Security Administration would collect Social Security and Medicare payroll taxes.

Taxpayer Rights

Under the current income tax system, taxpayer rights have been gradually eroded. Only recently has much attention been paid to taxpayer rights issues by participants in the tax reform debate. Under the NST, enhanced taxpayer rights provisions would be imperative. Most important, the burden of persuasion should rest with the government, but the burden of production of documents and records should remain with the taxpayer. Each state administrator should be required to establish a problem resolution office with authority to enjoin collection activity. Such administrative injunction could be lifted only by the highest officer in that tax authority. Taxpayers should be entitled to reimbursement for professional fees incurred in disputes unless the government's position was substantially justified. The NST plan should establish a series of penalties for noncompliance, including failure to register, failure to pay, and failure to file.

Destination and Allocation Rules

In the current international tax system, two primary questions must always be raised. First, which nation-state has the primary taxing jurisdiction? Second, if the United States can exercise jurisdiction to tax, what is the source of the income, foreign or U.S.? Both the income sourcing and expense allocation rules and the rules of juridical taxation in the international context can be quite complex, as international tax practitioners recognize. Those issues can hinge upon questions of residency; where property is located, sold, or used; where services are performed; even where the property used to produce the goods is located. In the case of interest or research and development expenses, the tax rules can be determined by specific formulas.

The sales tax rules proposed in this study are far simpler. Allocation of taxable property and services (and therefore revenue) among the various states is based on the destination of the taxable property or service. [51] As the tax applies only to consumption, questions of how to source business-to-business transactions are irrelevant, as are determinations for the allocation of interest, research and development, and other expenses.

While the taxpayer may remain relatively indifferent about which state imposes the federal tax (except to the extent that state tax rates differ), the outcome of jurisdictional questions will determine which state gets the revenue at issue. Consequently, the federal government may need to arbitrate disputes that arise among the states.

Some Commonly Raised Problems

Shifting from an income tax base to a national sales tax raises many problems related both to the transition from one system to another and to the correct tax treatment of various types of income and consumption. This section provides an explanation of how those problem areas are best addressed under an NST.

Investment Income

Interest, dividends, capital gains, and other investment income should not be taxable until the income is used to purchase taxable property, goods, or services.

Used Property

The NST should provide a credit for tax previously paid on used property that is subsequently resold. The basic idea is that the government should tax an item only once and that the sales tax should not cascade every time the same property is subsequently sold (as is the case under many state statutes). A set of transition rules must be established to ensure that property purchased with after-income-tax dollars is not then also subjected to a sales tax.

Under H.R. 3039, the rules would operate differently with respect to depreciating and appreciating used property. Let us take two examples to illustrate the application of the rules. In the first example, after enactment of the sales tax law, Consumer A purchases an automobile from a car dealer, paying a total of $23,529 of which $3,529 is tax (Table 6). Later, Consumer A sells the car at a lower price to Consumer B for a total price of $5,882 of which $882 is tax. Consumer A would be entitled to a refund of $882.

In this example of a depreciating asset, the seller would be entitled to a credit of $882, which equals the amount of tax the buyer would pay. That may be thought of as the buyer of the new car paying tax only on the portion of the value of the car he "used up" and the subsequent buyer paying tax on his share of the value of the car.

In our second example (Table 7), the asset owned by Consumer A and sold to Consumer B appreciates in value.

Here, the seller would be entitled to a credit of $882 (the tax he has already paid on the item). As the seller, he is responsible for collecting from the buyer and remitting the tax liability on the sale of $3,529. [52] The seller would have to remit $2,647 to the tax authority, which is the difference between the tax collected from the subsequent purchaser on resale ($3,529) and the tax paid on the original purchase ($882). In this way, the full value of the collectible is taxed but the tax does not cascade. The tax liability never exceeds the tax rate times the current value of the item. On both the appreciating and depreciating property, the government would receive the full tax ($3,529) on the value of a $20,000 item, but the credit mechanism prevents cascading and allocates tax liability fairly among owners of used property.

Table 6
Taxing a Depreciating Asset

Automobile New Purchase Subsequent Sale
Total price $23,529 $5,882
Tax 3,529 882
Net of tax price 20,000 5,000
Credit due seller 0 882

Table 7
Taxing an Appreciating Asset

Collectible New
Purchase Subsequent
Sale
Total price $5,882 $23,529
Tax 882 3,529
Net of tax price 5,000 20,000
Credit due seller 0 882
Homes
The NST should be applied to housing as it is to any consumer item. The general used property credit rules described above apply to primary residences. However, in the case of a primary residence, special rules may be established that allow the purchaser of a primary residence to elect to pay the tax over 30 years with interest. In the event this choice is made, the responsibility for remitting the tax rests with the buyer. If the primary residence is subsequently sold, then the entire tax is due (but any used property credit due would be allowed as well).

Let us take the example of a couple buying their first home. Assume they purchase the home for $100,000 plus sales tax of $17,647 for a total price of $117,647. They may borrow from their bank to pay this amount or they may elect to pay the tax over 30 years. The tax would then be $588.24 per year or $49 per month. Under H.R. 3039, interest would be charged on the tax balance unpaid. Interest charges on this tax would be a little over $100 per month, declining to about $50 per month in the 15th year. The couple would be billed this amount by the tax-collecting authority. [53]

An existing homeowner would be entitled to a credit against his next house on any sales tax actually paid. In addition, existing homeowners would receive a credit equal to the sales tax rate times equity payments (both downpayments plus mortgage principal payments) made under the income tax. A homeowner who purchased a house for $100,000 before enactment of the sales tax, made a $15,000 downpayment, and has made $10,000 in principal payments before enactment of the sales tax would, when he sold the home, be entitled to a credit of $3,750 ($25,000 times 15 percent) toward any tax due on the purchase of his next home. If he did not purchase a subsequent home, he would be refunded the $3,750.

Homeowners are, in effect, paying a tax on their equity or principal payments toward a house at a 15 percent rate. Homeowners today must make their principal payments from after-income-tax dollars at rates typically in excess of 15 percent. Thus, under a sales tax most homeowners will fare better. Moreover, interest rates should drop considerably and most homeowners will be able to refinance their mort-gages at lower interest rates. The monthly housing payments for most homeowners, even new homeowners, will decline.

Let us examine the case of a homeowner who sells a home and purchases a more expensive home. Assume he sold a home for $117,647 (of which $17,647 is tax). The seller would then be entitled to a credit of $17,647. If he then purchased another home for $176,471 (of which $26,471 would be tax), he would owe a net tax of $8,824 (the $26,471 of tax less the $17,647 credit from the sale of the previous home). Moreover, under the special rule for primary residences, the $8,824 could, at the taxpayer's election, be paid over 30 years (i.e., $294 per year or $25 per month plus interest). If, however, he had purchased a less expensive home and saved the difference, he would be entitled to a net refund. Of course, if he later took the savings and then spent it on, say, a new car, he would pay tax at that time on the car.

Financial Intermediation Services

The taxation of financial intermediation services poses a difficult problem for all consumption tax proposals. Interest rates may be viewed as having three components. One, the normal (risk-free) return on capital. Two, the premium paid for the risk that the capital will not be repaid. And three, the payment for financial intermediation services--the servicing of the loan or deposit. What we want to tax is the last component: the financial intermediation services. That is not simple. Although some financial intermediation services are separately charged, in practice they are usually incorporated into the interest paid. Similarly, insurance premiums have a financial intermediation services component. Under the NST, financial intermediation services (FIS) purchased by consumers are taxable services, while FIS purchased by businesses are exempt as business inputs.

The issue can be resolved by defining FIS to include both explicit and implicit services. Explicit financial intermediation services include brokerage, banking, safe deposit boxes, trustees' and mutual fund management, and exit fees, as well as sales loads and insurance premiums to the extent that the premium is not allocatable to the underlying investment account. [54] If the services are explicit, they are taxable.

The NST undertakes to define implicit FIS in order to tax the intermediation fees imbedded in interest rates. The implicit fee is the difference between the applicable interest rate and the interest rate provided or charged times the debt balance. In the case of deposits, it is measured as the excess of the applicable rate over the rate provided. In the case of borrowers, it is measured as the excess of the rate charged over the applicable rate. The applicable rate is defined in H.R. 3039 as 2 percent plus the rate that the federal government pays when it issues securities of like term and like issuance date to the transaction for which an amount is being imputed. The 2 percent rate is designed to be an arbitrary risk premium. This figure should be empirically determined. [55] The rate could be periodically adjusted. An alternative method would be to dispense with an arbitrary risk rate and provide investors with a credit for bad debt expense.

Government Services and Purchases

The question of the proper tax treatment of government services--such as municipal garbage collection, utilities, visits to national parks, and rides on Amtrak--presents special problems. [56] To the fullest extent possible, a national sales tax should provide parity between government services and private services. Excluding commercial activities of the government from the tax base would provide a tax advantage when government is competing with private providers of services. Hence, when the government sells a good or service, such as public transit or publications, the sales tax should be imposed on the sale price. [57]

The complication is that most government goods and services are not sold in the marketplace. They are often given away and in many cases no market price exists for the services in question. Moreover, the recipients or beneficiaries of the services are unclear or unknown. For example, how would we allocate the benefits conferred on the public by national defense, the State Department, the Environmental Protection Agency, National Public Radio, or the White House?

Taxing this part of the economy is not as administratively simple under a sales tax as it is under an income tax. Government services are taxed by both the current graduated income tax and the flat tax--through the income tax imposed on government workers' wages and salaries (i.e., most of government value added). One conceivable way to tax government fully and equally under the NST system would be to impose a separate excise tax on government wages. That is the approach we have adopted in this study. [58]

Not-for-Profit Organizations

The tax system should not discourage provision of goods or services that serve a public need or good that cannot be provided by the for-profit sector and that can more effectively be provided by charities or other not-for-profit organizations than by government. Likewise, the system ought to encourage volunteerism and contributions to charitable purposes. On the other hand, not-for-profits' commercial activities should not be allowed an unfair competitive advantage vis-à-vis the business activities of the for-profit sector.

Under an NST, as with current law, a balance must be struck between permitting some commercial activity and preventing such activity from competing against the for-profit sector. Not-for-profit organizations that roughly correspond to present law 501(c)(3)-(6) and 501(c)(8) organizations should be accorded special treatment under the NST by exempting them from tax on dues, contributions, and payments to qualified not-for-profit organizations. [59] In other words, a contribution to a church, synagogue, university, or food bank should not be treated as the purchase of taxable religious, educational, or charitable services. But if a qualified not-for-profit organization provides property or personal services in exchange for dues or contributions, the fair market value of the property or personal services provided should be taxable to prevent non-profits from having an unfair advantage by being able to sell goods or services in exchange for contributions on a tax-free basis. Girl Scout cookies, for example, would be taxed when purchased. [60] Such a provision would generally replicate current law treatment, which denies a deduction for contributions to the extent of the fair market value of goods or services received in return. [61]

Mixed-Use Property

Mixed-use property, or property serving both business and personal consumption needs, presents problems in virtually all tax systems. Purchases of property and services may give rise to taxation or exemption depending on the use to which the property is put. The essential question is whether the property is used essentially for consumption or for production.

One way to resolve the issue, as proposed under H.R. 3039, is to require that, in order for mixed-use property to be exempt, it must be used more than 95 percent for exempt purposes. Otherwise, the person purchasing the property (or service) is entitled to a business conversion credit equal to the product of the tax rate, the business use ratio, and the mixed-use property amount. [62] Special rules should be established to tax property converted from business to personal use, and conversely, to provide a credit for property converted from personal to business use.

The NST and International Trade

A national sales tax would be border adjusted--so that exports would not be taxed but imports would be. Imported goods would be taxed when sold in the United States or when brought into the country by a consumer. Exports would not be subject to tax since they are not sold at retail in the United States. A national sales tax would comply with the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. Under GATT, an indirect tax may be border adjusted while a direct tax may not. Since a sales tax is indisputably an indirect tax--because it is a tax on a good or service, not a tax on a person--this border adjustment feature would pose no difficulty. Foreign VATs are typically border adjusted. U.S. income taxes are not.

Many take the position that border adjustment gives foreign firms a large advantage since their goods do not include the VAT in their price while U.S. firms must include income taxes in their price. Most business leaders would agree. Professional economists are divided. The majority opinion is that foreign exchange rates change in response to border tax adjustment and no competitive advantage is afforded to U.S. exporters. [63] Others argue that, in the short term, exporters (i.e., the traded goods sector) will gain an advantage that will evaporate over time. [64] None seem to argue that border tax adjustment will have an adverse impact on the United States.

Transitional Considerations

Questions about the best way to convert from our current income tax to a national sales tax are of great consequence. How to structure appropriate transition rules so that changing the tax system does not unfairly burden some taxpayers nor provide a windfall for others is a difficult question. We need to ensure that neither new nor old investments receive competitive advantage as a result of tax changes. Issues of equity, economic impact, revenue loss or gain, and ease of administration must be balanced.

Possible criteria for determining whether transition relief is appropriate might include the following:

Is a taxpayer's tax liability comparable to what it would have been under the law when an investment was made?
Is a taxpayer's after-tax rate of return comparable to what it would have been under the law when an investment was made?
To address those concerns, any NST must provide certain transition rules, some of which have already been mentioned in the context of the structure of H.R. 3039. [65] Owners of existing property such as homes and automobiles are deemed to have previously paid sales tax to the extent of their equity in the property for purposes of the used property credit rules. That means that a homeowner would receive a tax credit toward his or her next purchase in an amount equal to the deemed paid credit. Thus, to the extent the taxpayer had made equity payments out of after-income-tax dollars, he or she would not incur additional sales tax liability.

Also, self-employed persons, for purposes of the self-employment tax, do not lose their existing basis in capital assets. Instead, they would be allowed to deduct any remaining basis in depreciable property and inventory over 10 years. [66]

There are various options for dealing with unused income tax credits and deductions. A special refund equal to the income tax rate times the present discounted value of the stream of deductions plus any unused credits could be provided. Were such an approach pursued, however, it would also seem appropriate to impose a corresponding tax on built-in capital gains, foreign-source income that has not been subjected to U.S. tax, and presumably even the capitalized value of future income streams. That revenue, in turn, could be used to fund the transition relief.

It may be appropriate to avoid a form of double taxation by providing some relief to persons--primarily the elderly--consuming out of savings that were previously subject to the income tax. This type of relief may be particularly desirable since the NST-plan family consumption refund outlin

[dm34]

Hey, at least my essay wasn't plagarized!

[morgant]

you just whip that up trout? needs a little polishing and some references..otherwise not bad

yes this thread will far surpass what is wrong with the SS. Gabbyyyyyys presence in a post of this magnitude is mandatory(glad she arrived), now we need a little detox to offer a super rake rebate for those who win/buy the map, and maybe a dash of redhotman just to stir up the pot and rag on some women......then this thread will have thoroughly ran the gamut.

[jek187]

[ QUOTE ]
then this thread will have thoroughly ran the gamutt.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, I guess if we're going for that, may as well have some Cyndie bashing.

Cyndie is a dirty spammer. There, now we have that done.

[brassnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
Brassnuts you must think we are all idiots. Where did you get this so called inside info from? Is it from the same place where these retarded customer service people work?

[/ QUOTE ]
I am cousins with Mike Sexton, once removed, of course.

[Botchy Dud]

This is an outrage, I've been selling an older version for years but none of my clients bothered to inform me about the updates.

I demand that Ulysses gives me the updated version immediately since he probably stole my work anyway.

[Simon Diamond]

LOL @ trout - longest post ever?

Has anybody read it all?

Simon

[Cubswin]

[ QUOTE ]
you just whip that up trout? needs a little polishing and some references..otherwise not bad

[/ QUOTE ]


Ive included the notes he left out below. They can also be found here http://www.cato.org/pubs/pas/pa-272.html .

regards
cubswin


Notes
[1]. H.R. 3039, the National Retail Sales Tax Act of 1996, had six original cosponsors: Reps. Sonny Bono (R-Calif.), Dick Chrysler (R-Mich.), Ralph D. Hall (D-Tex.), Joel Hefley (R-Colo.), John Linder (R-Ga.), and Bob Stump (R-Ariz.).

[2]. See "Archer Outlines Ways and Means Agenda," Bureau of National Affairs Daily Report for Executives, March 7, 1996, p. GG-1.

[3]. "Schaefer, Tauzin Offer Retail Sales Tax; Ways and Means Chairman Salutes Sponsors," Bureau of National Affairs Daily Report for Executives, March 8, 1996, p. G-5.

[4]. Stephen Moore, "The Economic and Civil Liberties Case for a National Sales Tax," Hoover Institution Conference Paper, May 11, 1995.

[5]. Dale W. Jorgenson, "The Economic Impact of Fundamental Taxing Consumption," Testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, March 27, 1996. See also Dale W. Jorgenson, "The Economic Impact of Fundamental Tax Reform," Testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, June 6, 1995.

[6]. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, "The Economic Impact of Replacing Federal Income Taxes with a Sales Tax," Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 193, April 15, 1993.

[7]. This, of course, is the same result that occurs with tax-free bonds under Internal Revenue Code section 103, which exempts municipal bond interest from tax. The market may not clear at the present tax-exempt rate because such a high proportion of existing capital providers are tax-exempt or tax-deferred (most notably, governments, pension funds, retirement savings accounts, and, in selected circumstances, foreigners).

[8]. One reason to be relatively certain that interest rates would be lower without an income tax is that tax-exempt bonds yield 30 percent less than taxable bonds. Under the NST, all bonds would be nontaxable. Hence, interest rates would probably settle between the taxable and nontaxable rates.

[9]. This assumes roughly $3.5 trillion in debt held by the public and a 200-basis-point reduction in interest rates. Federal net interest expense in fiscal year 1995 was $232 billion. See Economic Report of the President, February 1996, pp. 370, 376.

[10]. Current Internal Revenue Code section 871(h).

[11]. Currently, income earned by a trade or business within the United States is taxed whether it is a foreign firm or a foreign-owned U.S. firm. Moreover, the Branch Profits Tax ensures that foreign firms' U.S. profits are subject to a double tax when repatriated. This is meant to impose the same double tax on foreigners that U.S. shareholders pay on corporate dividends.

[12]. Stephen Moore and John Silvia, "The ABCs of the Capital Gains Tax," Cato Institute Policy Analysis no. 242, October 4, 1995.

[13]. Paradoxically, this net infusion of foreign investment capital would cause the trade deficit to rise, as it did in the 1980s. An increase in the trade deficit, per se, is not economically harmful.

[14]. Although duly included in the national income and product accounts, and a source of employment to lawyers, accountants, IRS agents, and other tax professionals, the payments extracted from the economy due to the complexity of our tax system do not improve our collective standard of living.

[15]. See Arthur Hall, "The High Cost of Tax Compliance for U.S. Business," Tax Foundation Special Report, November 1993. In March 20, 1996, testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, Hall presented his updated 1996 findings: $157 billion per year in compliance costs due to the federal income tax exemption. See also James L. Payne, Costly Returns: The Burdens of the U.S. Tax System (San Francisco: Institute for Contemporary Studies Press, 1993). Payne estimates total compliance costs at about $300 billion. Testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, June 6, 1995.

[16]. National Commission on Economic Growth and Tax Reform, "Unleashing America's Potential," January 1996, p. 9.

[17]. See Arthur Hall, "Compliance Costs of Alternative Tax Systems," Tax Foundation Special Report, June 1995. See also Arthur Hall, "Replacing the Federal Income Tax," testimony before the House Ways and Means Committee, March 20, 1996. Hall estimates that under H.R. 3039 compliance costs would decline by 95 percent to $8.2 billion.

[18]. Authors' calculation comparing (1992) corporation, partnership, and sole proprietor returns with all returns using IRS Statistics of Income.

[19]. The states without a general sales tax are Alaska, Delaware, Montana, New Hampshire, and Oregon.

[20]. For 1995, the 28 percent marginal rate is effective on taxable incomes of $36,900 for joint filers and $22,100 for single persons. The top federal tax rate is 39.6 percent.

[21]. The proposed Domenici-Nunn USA tax has a top marginal tax rate of 40 percent (actually an effective rate of 32.35 percent once the payroll tax credit is considered) that takes effect at relatively low taxable income levels--$24,000 for joint returns and $14,400 for single persons.

[22]. For a particular taxpayer, the marginal benefit from failing to report a given amount of gross receipts under an income tax and a given amount of gross receipts under a sales tax are the same. The taxpayer will reduce his taxable income or taxable receipts one dollar for each dollar not reported. Falsifying deductions or business expenses does not arise under a sales tax; the corresponding problem is using a business to purchase personal goods and services on a tax-exempt basis.

[23]. See Peter S. Spiro, "Estimating the Underground Economy: A Critical Evaluation of the Monetary Approach," Canadian Tax Journal 42 (1994): 1059-81; and Vito Tanzi, "The Underground Economy in the United States: Annual Estimates, 1930-80," International Monetary Fund Staff Paper no. 30, June 1983, pp. 283-305.

[24]. On the other hand, we acknowledge that their would be new types of monitoring problems in enforcing a national sales tax to avoid noncompliance through bartering, sales at the wholesale level, and other avoidance schemes.

[25]. IRS Statistics of Income, reported in U.S. Congress, Joint Committee on Taxation, "Impact on Small Business of Replacing the Federal Income Tax," 104th Cong., 2d sess., 1996. Committee print, pp. 109-127.

[26]. Hall, "Compliance Costs"; and Hall, Testimony.

[27]. The top marginal income tax rate is 39.6 percent for individuals and 35 percent for corporations. Those tax rates are more than twice as high as the 15 percent sales tax rate that would be imposed in their place.

[28]. The sales tax cannot be avoided by purchasing big-ticket items abroad and then bringing them into the United States.

[29]. For example, the imputation for the rental value of owner-occupied housing (farm and nonfarm) must be eliminated. Certain other imputations must be eliminated as well. The value of new owner-occupied housing must be added to the tax base. Since H.R. 3039 would tax purchases of old housing, the sale of old housing (net of deemed credits) must be added. As H.R. 3039 would allow the taxes on housing to be amortized until the unit was resold, this must be accounted for. Most important, government purchases must be added to the tax base if the sales tax plan taxes government. Government purchases include payments to government employees for the services they render and other government purchases. The flat tax, the income tax, and the USA tax all tax the value added by government.

[30]. David Joulfaian and James Mackie, "Sales Taxes, Investment, and the Tax Reform Act of 1986," National Tax Journal, 1992, pp. 89-105.

[31]. Avoidance of cascading also ensures that the final price paid by the consumer excludes hidden taxes. The exemption framework serves the same purpose as deductions under a flat tax, business transfer tax, or subtraction-method value-added tax framework or the credit for previously paid taxes under a credit-invoice method value-added tax.

[32]. There are two prominent types of value-added taxes. Under a subtraction-method value-added tax, a business fills out a tax return that is similar in some respects to an income tax return except that only purchases from other firms are deductible, and wages, taxes, interest, and other expenses are not. The business tax in the USA tax is an example of such a tax. The European Community and Canada employ a credit-invoice type of VAT that is levied on gross receipts; a credit is provided to businesses for the tax paid on business inputs.

[33]. When calculating the tax-inclusive sales tax base, two algebraically equivalent methods may be used. The tax-exclusive rate may be converted into a tax-inclusive rate by dividing the tax-exclusive rate by one plus the tax-exclusive rate: ti = te/(1+te). Conversely, a tax-inclusive rate may be converted into a tax-exclusive rate by dividing the tax-inclusive rate by one minus the tax-inclusive rate: te = ti/(1- ti). Alternatively, the tax-inclusive sales tax rate may be calculated by adding the repealed income tax revenue back into the tax base (consumers, after all, would have that money to spend), whereas one would not do so when calculating the tax-exclusive base (consumers would be spending that amount on tax and it would not be appropriate to include it in the calculation of a tax-exclusive base).

[34]. See Bruce Bartlett, "Replacing Federal Taxes with a Sales Tax," Tax Notes, August 21, 1995, pp. 997-1003, arguing that a 32 percent rate would be required.

[35]. This is consistent with the general sales tax framework laid out by Professor Dale Jorgenson, chairman of the economics department at Harvard University. See Dale Jorgenson, correspondence, April 1, 1997.

[36]. See, e.g., Statement of Robert E. Hall before the House Ways and Means Committee, June 6, 1995, Serial 104-28, p. 593, where he states, “The Hall-Rabushka flat tax is a value added tax.” Its base bears no resemblance to an income tax.

[37]. The amount of federal government wages was about $207 billion in 1995. Total federal government consumption (including compensation) was $454 billion in 1995. See NIPA Table 3.7B, Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment by Type, Survey of Current Business, August 1996. Government “investment” was scored as $63 billion. Since we do not tax the “return” to that investment, taxing this investment would also seem appropriate as a tax prepayment approach that is equivalent in present value terms.

[38]. The Joint Committee on Taxation recognized this in their pamphlet, “Impact on State and Local Governments and Tax-Exempt Organizations of Replacing the Federal Income Tax,” pp. 57-58.

[39]. Government enterprises (e.g., Amtrak, the Postal Service) are a separate case. They can easily be put on equal footing by taxing their sales and exempting their inputs as if they were private enterprises. If government (and non-profit) enterprises are not subject to tax, they will have a huge relative price advantage over private companies.

[40]. Gilbert E. Metcalf, "Lifecycle vs. Annual Perspectives on the Incidence of a Value Added Tax," National Bureau of Economic Research reprint no. 1892.

[41]. In 1994, food ($715.7 billion), housing ($706.6 billion), clothing and shoes ($247.8 billion), and medical care ($739.1 billion) accounted for 51.3 percent of National Income and Product Accounts personal consumption expenditures ($4,698.7 billion).

[42]. The legislation actually provides the rebate only against wage income. Although rules are provided that would mitigate taxation of consumption from the sale of homes, those with wage income less than the poverty level whose consumption was financed by the sale of financial assets or passive income would not be fully protected. Those who receive government benefits can be protected to the extent necessary by adjusting benefit levels. The level of benefit adjustment is uncertain since the repeal of the income tax should reduce pre-sales-tax prices to some degree. A large but unknown amount of corporate and individual income tax plus the associated compliance costs are embedded in the price of every product we buy. If the view commonly held among economists is correct and the actual incidence of a consumption tax is on the factors of production (labor and capital), it is not clear that any relief on nonwage income is appropriate.

[43]. The HHS poverty level is divided by the quantity one minus the tax rate.

[44]. An explicit provision to reimburse the Treasury for payroll taxes not remitted by employers, although included in earlier drafts of the legislation (as §6(b)), certainly intended by the sponsors, and referred to in cross refer-ences in H.R. 3039, was omitted from H.R. 3039. The legislation's sponsors believe that other existing statutory provisions ensure that the trust fund will be fully funded under current law. Indeed, 42 USC 401(a) seems to so provide.

[45]. The rebate would then be administered at the family unit level (as the poverty level is defined by reference to the family unit).

[46]. See Federal Register 61, no. 43 (March 4, 1996): 8286, for 1996 HHS poverty level.

[47]. A similar system is presently employed by Canada in the province of Quebec where Quebec administers both the federal and provincial goods and services tax and employed, until recently, a single-stage (retail) method.

[48]. H.R. 3039 would require states to conform their state sales tax bases to the federal base and impose a state sales tax of at least 1 percent in order to become an administering state.

[49]. Some vendors might choose to collect sales tax even on otherwise exempt sales rather than bother with an exemption certificate. In this case, the buyer would then be eligible for a refund on the tax paid on the exempt sale.

[50]. H.R. 3039 provides a credit of one-half of 1 percent of the taxes collected and remitted. This credit is subject to a minimum of $100 per month provided that the credit does not exceed 20 percent of the tax due.

[51]. The rules under the Schaefer-Tauzin plan are as follows: · The destination of tangible personal property (including property sold by mail order) is the state in which the property was first delivered to the purchaser.

· The destination of real property is the state where the property is located.
· The destination of services is the state where the use, consumption, or enjoyment of the services occurred.
· The destination of telecommunications services (including telephone, cable television, and satellite services) is the residence of the purchaser.
· The destination of domestic transportation services is the destination of the trip (in the case of round-trips, the services are equally divided). International transportation services are deemed 50 percent attributable to the U.S. destination or origin.
· The destination of financial intermediation services is the residence of the purchaser. Gross payment for financial intermediation services purchased by a U.S. resident from a financial intermediation service provider that has a permanent establishment in the United States would be subject to tax.
· The destination of rents and leaseholds is generally the location of the rented or leased property. In the case of vehicle rentals of one month or less, the destination is the location where the vehicle was originally delivered to the lessee. In the case of vehicle rentals of more than one month, the destination of the lease is the residence of the lessee.H.R. 3039, The National Retail Sales Tax Act of 1996.

[52]. The seller must collect the tax unless an exemption or de minimis rule applies.

[53]. In most cases, the homebuyer would finance the tax payment as a component of the mortgage, just as property tax payments are typically handled today.

[54]. If a health or property and casualty insurer makes a purchase on behalf of an insured (e.g., medical services or automobile body work) and the premium giving rise to the obligation is taxed, the insurer's purchase is exempt. Thus a hospital invoicing an insurance company would collect no tax, but if it were invoicing a consumer it would collect the tax. However, a mechanism should be provided to credit the insured for taxes paid if the insurance company reimburses the insured rather than making the purchase directly (again, assuming the premium is taxed). Similarly, a provision should probably be made to provide a credit to life insurance proceeds recipients if the life insurance premium is taxed.

[55]. The tax effect should not vary depending on whether the fees are implicit or explicit.

[56]. U.S. Congress, Joint Committee on Taxation, "Impact on State and Local Governments and Tax-Exempt Organizations of Replacing the Federal Income Tax," 104th Cong., 2d sess., 1996. Committee print.

[57]. Exemptions otherwise available to business would be available to government. For example, government purchases of capital equipment used for the production of taxable property and services would be exempt. Thus, Amtrak's purchase of locomotives or sandwiches for resale would be exempt. The Government Printing Office's purchase of paper for printing books sold to the public (and therefore taxed) would be exempt.

[58]. The authors note that they have determined the sales tax rate based upon taxation of government output (value added). There is a general consensus that government output should be taxed under a consumption tax to prevent the creation of an incentive to consume through the medium of government relative to the private sector. However, there is not yet consensus over the issue of whether or not the receipts collected from the taxation of government output should be counted for purposes of determining the correct revenue neutral tax rate. In this study the authors do count these revenues because they maintain government output is taxed today in the form of income and payroll taxes on government workers and that this tax constitutes a significant portion of the revenue being replaced by the consumption tax. If these payments are included as income tax revenues, then they should likewise be included as consumption tax revenues. If instead we do not count the revenues from taxation of government value added, then we should also reduce the level of income tax revenue that we seek to replace by the sales tax. For a further discussion of this issue, see Joint Committee on Taxation, 1996.

[59]. The organizations that fall within the rubric of these special not-for-profit rules are those organized and operated exclusively for religious, charitable, scientific, testing for the public safety, literary, or educational pur-poses; as civic leagues or social welfare organizations; as labor, agricultural, or horticultural organizations; as chambers of commerce, business leagues, or trade associations; or as fraternal beneficiary societies, orders, or associations.

[60]. Girl Scout cookies are not presently taxed since the business of selling the cookies is not "regularly carried on."

[61]. Gross payments to qualified not-for-profit organizations for property and services that are not substantially related to the exempt purposes of the organization or that are commercially available would be taxable. That provision incorporates the principles of an improved "unrelated business income tax" (which has been frequently criticized by small businesses as unworkable).

[62]. The business use ratio is determined by the ratio of business use to total use using mileage for vehicles, floor space for real property, time for machinery and equipment, and a reasonable method for other items. Records substantiating use must be maintained. The mixed property amount for any given year is one-thirtieth of the purchase price for 30 years for real property, one-seventh of the purchase price for seven years for machinery and equipment, and one-fifth of the purchase price for five years for vehicles. To illustrate, a $5,000 vehicle would give rise to a mixed property amount each year of $1,000. If the business use ratio were 50 percent, then the annual credit would be $75 (15 percent of $500).

[63]. See Martin Feldstein and Paul Krugman, "International Trade Effects of Value Added Taxation," in Taxation in the Global Economy, ed. Assaf Razin and Joel Slemrod (Cambridge, Mass.: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1990), pp. 263-82.

[64]. Gary Clyde Hufbauer, U.S. Taxation of International Income: Blueprint for Reform (Washington: Institute for International Economics, 1992); Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Carol Gabyzon, Fundamental Tax Reform and Border Tax Adjustments (Washington: Institute for International Economics, 1996); David G. Raboy, "International Implications of Value Added Taxes," in Value Added Tax: Orthodoxy and New Thinking, ed. Murray Weidenbaum, David G. Raboy, and Ernest S. Christian Jr. (St. Louis: Center for Study of American Business/Kluwer, 1989), pp. 131-62.

[65]. In the Schaefer-Tauzin bill, income tax transition rules are not provided.

[66]. Generally for tax purposes, a taxpayer's basis in property is its original cost plus any improvements (but not including maintenance and repairs) less any depreciation taken with respect to the property.

[67]. Another transitional issue relates to government benefits programs. Those making their consumption purchases out of Social Security, veterans, AFDC, food stamp, or similar benefits will pay tax on their purchases. However, it is not clear what the appropriate level of relief would be to leave benefit recipients unaffected. All other things being equal, the market should clear pre-sales-tax goods and services at a lower price after the income tax is repealed, since income taxes are costs that will no longer be imposed on suppliers of capital and labor. Moreover, the consensus view is that the incidence--the actual burden--of the sales tax is on producers, not consumers.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Brassnuts you must think we are all idiots. Where did you get this so called inside info from? Is it from the same place where these retarded customer service people work?

[/ QUOTE ]
I am cousins with Mike Sexton, once removed, of course.

[/ QUOTE ]

If so, what is his hometown, where did he grow up?

[morgant]

very creative way to get your economics homework done by someone else.

[acrylic48]

[ QUOTE ]
I have seen Ulysses' generous offer. I, too, have decided (along with my partner) that we could also give away a single copy of our application. It comes with a dongle (attaches to your serial port) which prevents you from copying it and giving it away. The version we will provide, however, will be a lite-version. It will NOT work on ICG-based number generators. So, if Party chooses to go that route, you'll need the one that can determine which pattern map generation is required.

How about an essay between 250 and 500 words that argues either FOR or AGAINST a consumption tax.

For more starter's read the analyses here: http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/ConsumptionTax.html

Best essayist will be rewarded.

Good luck.

-RMJ

[/ QUOTE ]

I Am Against Consumption Tax

A consumption tax system is not the answer to our economic problems. First, the tax is nearly impossible to monitor. The system is based on an individual's savings. How much money would it cost the government to monitor every American’s bank account so we know how much money he or she saves throughout the year? Second, individuals who earn larger incomes will have disproportionate benefits in the consumption tax system because they are able save more of their money. The proportional income tax system the government currently uses makes much more sense. People with lower incomes have less to save and in turn they are taxed too much for necessary expenditures. We, as a country, can not switch to a system that favors the rich. The upper class makes up such a small percentage of the population; it makes no sense to switch to a system that would hurt the masses. Third, it states in the article, “based on pure economics is that it would require a higher tax rate in order to raise the same revenue as the income tax,” which further proves the second reason. In order for the government to generate the same amount of revenue acquired in the current system, they would have to raise the tax rate in the consumption system. This would tax the lower and middle classes even more, which again, makes up the majority of the population. Basically, the consumption tax system is just the opposite of the way it is now. The rich will be taxed less thanks to higher incomes and the lower classes will be taxed more because of their inability to save as much as the wealthy. It is clear a consumption tax will only anger a high percentage of the population within the United States. The rich and powerful should benefit from any tax system.

Thanks for this generous offer RocketManJames!
Kate /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[brassnuts]

[ QUOTE ]
If so, what is his hometown, where did he grow up?

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, you got me, I am just trying to bash Ulysses pattern map in order to promote mine. But I would be willing to go into heads up battle any time vs his to prove that mine does predict the 4th and 5th street more precisely.

[RiverMise]

If Pattern Maps work and can be used to effectively increase a players profit to a very high level... then what is the point of selling the application? Why not just go on using it and tell as few people as possible about it. If everyone knew about this then people would be a lot more likely to not play at party and play somewhere else and eventually you could force party to either change this or go out of business.

It seems to me that the more profitable thing to do would be to not tell many people and set up many bots that use the pattern maps and make you millions of dollars while you sleep. Why sell it?

[Cubswin]

[ QUOTE ]
If Pattern Maps work and can be used to effectively increase a players profit to a very high level... then what is the point of selling the application? Why not just go on using it and tell as few people as possible about it. If everyone knew about this then people would be a lot more likely to not play at party and play somewhere else and eventually you could force party to either change this or go out of business.

It seems to me that the more profitable thing to do would be to not tell many people and set up many bots that use the pattern maps and make you millions of dollars while you sleep. Why sell it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Have you read the book "bringing down the house"? I bet you its kind of like that. He has most likely won a [censored] load of money through this method but pretty soon party will no longer want his action because he is taking too much money off the tables. Since he wont be able to play he is most likely setting himself up for some book/movie deal or something else that might boost his ego. I could be wrong on this but its the only plausible explain i could think of.

regards
cubswin

[mktrout]

regardless of where I got my sources, I think I deserve the maps. If they work I will buy you an ice cream. Or maybe an ice cream factory. Come on, I've been waiting my whole life to see something of this mathmatical magnitude to actually work.

[TwoGun]

I take no responsibility if this post is just a copy of a random essay I found on the Internet at cyberessays.com:

Biography of Genghis Khan

The old world had many great leaders. Alexander the Great,
Hannibal and even Julius Caesar met with struggle on their rise to
power. Perhaps Genghis Khan was the most significant of all these
rulers. To prove that Genghis Khan was the greatest ruler, we must go
back to the very beginning of his existence. We must examine such
issues as; Genghis¹s struggle for power/how his life as a child would
affect his rule, his personal and military achievements and his
conquests.

Genghis Khan was originally born as Temujin in 1167. He showed
early promise as a leader and a fighter. By 1206, an assembly of
Mongolian chieftains proclaimed him Genghis Khan. Which meant
Universal or invincible prince. This was a bold move for the assembly.
They obviously saw some leadership qualities in Genghis that others
didn¹t. When Genghis Khan was little, his chieftain father poisoned.
With no leader left, the tribe abandoned Genghis and his mother. They
were left alone for many years to care for themselves. Throughout
these years, his family met many hardships such as shortage of food
and shortage of money. Though unable to read, Genghis was a very wise
man. His mother told him at a very early age the importance of trust
and independence. "Remember, you have no companions but your shadow"
Grolier Encyclopedia. (1995) CD ROM

This quote was to mean to Genghis, don¹t put to much trust in
anyone, trust no one but yourself and if you must go your own way then
do so. In 1206, Genghis Khan proclaimed the ruler of Mongolia. Genghis
was a very respected leader. Like other leaders he knew what his
people wanted. They want everything that is good and nothing that is
bad. Genghis knew he could not promise this so instead he pledged to
share both the sweet and the bitter of life. Genghis did not want to
end up being poisoned like his father so instead he made alliances,
and attacked anyone who posed a serious threat. Through this method
of leadership, Genghis¹s army grew to the point where they were
unbeatable.

Genghis contributed alot of items to the chinese and even
western civilizations. Perhaps his greatest contribution was a code of
laws that he declared. Since Genghis couldn¹t read or write, these law
were documented by one of his followers. His laws were carried on by
people though the many generations to the point of still being in use
today. Either as a modification of Genghis¹s laws or as Genghis had
declared them. Genghis Khan promoted the growth of trade between China
and Europe. This allowed him to gain essential supplies such as food,
weapons and other essential survival materials. Genghis also invented
a system similar to the pony express. It was a system in which the
horse and rider could silently communicate, a system that is still in
use today. Perhaps the greatest gift ever given by Genghis Khan was
the gift of language. Genghis was the first ruler to develop a
Mongolian language. Genghis Khan was also a military and strategic
genius. He structured his army in a unique and interesting fashion. He
integrated soldiers from different tribes into one powerful fighting
force. This was a brilliant idea. Not only could he have diversity and
people who specialize in certain aspects of warfare, but it also
inspired loyalty to the mongolian army as a whole rather than to a
specific group of people. Genghis used harsh training and strict
discipline to create a superior fighting force, he also insured that
everyone of his soldiers was well equipped and could easily adopted
new warfare tactics. His soldiers were always learning. Whether it be
a new tactic Genghis had invented or a new weapon He decided the army
would use, his soldiers were constantly learning. Genghis inspired
loyalty by a unique way of promotion. Genghis felt that the best way
to gain a loyal following was to promote people on the basis of
achievement and not within the family. This did not only inspire a
great deal of loyalty but it also made his army better and actually
raised the morale of his soldiers. Every soldier gave their life to
Genghis and one hundred percent of their effort because no one knew
who would be the next Genghis would promote.

Finally, once Genghis's army was trained and ready for battle,
Genghis felt it was time to flex the muscles of the Mongolian empire.
Genghis took on the great task of conquering all of china and uniting
it under a single ruler. Genghis began his assault on China by
attacking a northwest kingdom called Xi Xia. He defeated Xi Xia with
little effort and then in 1215 he moved northeast, attacking and
conquering Bejing, the capital city of the Jin empire. In 1218, for
reasons unknown, he decided to cease his assault on China and sweep
into central Asia. He crushed the kingdom of Krorezm which was
located in what is now present-day Uzebekistan and Turkmenistan. In
1220, he destroyed the cities of Bukhara and Samarkand, which are
located in present-day Uzebekistan and Neyshabar in modern Iran. By
1223, Genghis Khan and his troops had conquered the Kipchaks, and they
had defeated the Russians at the Kalka River. It had taken Genghis
Khan 17 years to create an empire superior in strength and achievement
to Alexander the great, Julius Caesar and even Hannibal. From 1225
until Genghis¹s death in 1227, His army was at war with Yi Yia
kingdom.

Genghis Khan died on August 18, 1227, and was buried in a secret
location in Mongolia. By rewarding skill and allegiance, and punishing
those who opposed him, Genghis Khan established a vast empire and the
most powerful empire to ever exist. Upon his death, Genghis¹s son
Kublai Khan took over the empire, founding the chinese-style Yuan
dynasty. Mongol rule brought relative peace to Asia, leaving China
accessible to foreign visitors, such as Marco Polo.

Now gimme gimme gimme!!!

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
But I would be willing to go into heads up battle any time vs his to prove that mine does predict the 4th and 5th street more precisely.

[/ QUOTE ]

OK. I'm game. 15-30 Party Poker HU? Let me know when and I'll set up a private table. I'm so confident in my "pattern maps" that I'll play anyone here HU.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
It seems to me that the more profitable thing to do would be to not tell many people and set up many bots that use the pattern maps and make you millions of dollars while you sleep. Why sell it?

[/ QUOTE ]

As I said in one of my initial posts, I am not going to do anything against Party's terms of service. Using any automated bots/programs/etc. is against their rules, so I'm not going to do that.

I play 3 tables on Party using all the resources and skills I have and abide by all rules Party sets.

I have no idea nor do I care how others will use the pattern maps. I'm just happy to make some extra money.

[t_perkin]

Ok, there seem to be a lot of people here who are not entirely clear what a pattern map is. I was going to write an intro myself, but then I decided it was silly when there are so many good academic papers on the subject.

Here is a link to a nice Phd thesis on an application of pattern mapping, in this case Pattern Matching on Self-Organising Maps (SOMs) for speach recognition.

There are a lot of good references in there as well for those who want more detail.

http://citeseer.nj.nec.com/cache/papers/cs/596/http:zSzzSzwww.cis.hut.fizSz~jarizSzpaperszSzthesi s94.pdf/on-the-analysis-of.pdf

hope this helps.

Tim

[PuppetMaster]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll select a winner in one week. If a really great essay goes up, though, I'll just select it and end the contest right then. So, if you're interested, get your essay up as quickly as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

The fragrance of freshly mowed lawns combined with the cacophony of Miami created the atmosphere of a metro-tropic paradise. With each step forward, the volcanic sidewalk cooked the rubber soles of my beat shoes. I entered the Park, a slide show of familiar sounds and images. Old men seated in rows, playing checkers underneath the shade of oak trees, arguing politics and sports. Shirtless black teenagers shooting hoops, laughing and cursing. Carefree children running aimlessly in their sand filled utopia, screaming as they repeatedly jumped on and off the monkey bars. A young couple pushing their precious darling on a swing as she giggles endlessly and shouts "Higher". Local construction workers sipping warm beer in the parking lot, enjoying their day off, joking and whistling at the passing
women.

Halfway to my forgotten destination, the most magnificent of all God's creations appeared sitting at the edge of an old concrete picnic bench.

Time stops.

A mirage.

A daydream in a blue sun-dress.

Love, no, complete and utter infatuation at first sight.

Straight golden blonde hair matched crystal clear green eyes that seemed to contain the answers to all of my questions. The fairest of them all, her buttermilk skin seemed to deflect the sun. I dropped to one knee, attempting to contemplate her wonder, her superiority, her absolutely indescribable presence. Even the old men
who had long ago forgotten the instantaneous feelings such an angel could provoke, starred at her, eyes glued, as if they were witnessing their whole lives at once: every pretty girl, every single kiss, every sunny morning, every single beautiful memory. Michelangelo himself could not sculpt her hourglass figure, nor would Shakespheare's words do her justice. Girls of her stature were reserved solely for post cards and magazine covers.

An ubelievable urge came over me to simply walk up to my goddess, squeeze her in my arms for all eternity and tell her everything; how I plan to spend my old age relaxing on a hammock in the hot Florida sun, eating watermellon and building sand castles, how I climb onto my roof three o'clock in the morning and watch the clouds pass in the moon light, how I love to bite the ends off a twizzler and use it as a straw, how I treasure a stuffed rabit given to me by my dead grandfather, and how I lay awake in bed picturing this very moment.

We would run away, drive off into the sunset. No more lonely worries and sleepless nights. First, we'll ride straight to Portland in search of her long lost grandmother, who used to tell her stories about Peter Cotton and Huckleberry Fin while she sat infront of the fireplace and baked her chocolate chip oatmeal coookies to go with huge cups of hot cocoa. On the road she would tell me about her childhood; how she grew up on a farm in Georgia. Yes, it had to be Gerogia, the only place such a
lucious peach could be grown. I can picture her as a child, sitting on a tire swing reading her favorite books all day until ths sun sets. I wonder what she named her
dog?

I plucked a flower from the soil, took a deep breath and strolled towards destiny. With each step my knees grew weaker, until at last I reached my destination. At the very moment I sat down on the bench beside her, my angel stood up, without hesitation and walked away, splitting my heart in two peices and tormenting me for all eternity.

Men with broken hearts do not sleep during the night, we lie awake starring at the moon, as our thoughts reak havok on our souls.

Perhaps, Ulysses, kind soul, I could fill this nightly void with a pattern map program.

[Stagemusic]

Absolutely the greatest thread ever...long may it live. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Stagemusic]

In less than 36 hours...almost 4000 views and 165 posts. This has GOT to be some kind of record

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If so, what is his hometown, where did he grow up?

[/ QUOTE ]
OK, you got me, I am just trying to bash Ulysses pattern map in order to promote mine. But I would be willing to go into heads up battle any time vs his to prove that mine does predict the 4th and 5th street more precisely.

[/ QUOTE ]

ROFL, fair enough!


PS: I actually know Mike, that's why I asked.

Good luck on the tables.

[n1stunnor]

Fuc*ing Hilarious!

[XlgJoe]

He probably has a newer version where he predicts the flops ahead of time. So he makes money selling this version, and knows ahead of time which hands to see the flop with.

Smart guy, but I think he should try his talents at quantun physics or medical research.

[thanos]

Ok,

I am new here and am a little bit confused. Am I too assume be reading this whole thread,which is VERY interesting, that all the techniques, and calculating (pot odds, implied odds, outs, etc) are not worth the time and I should focus on the learning of Pattern Mapping?

Also is there a tutorial from anyone to get someone started on doing pattern mapping?
Anything at all for the newbie to start learning some of these processes?



Thanks for putting up with the stupid questions /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Thanks
Thanos

[elbooneb]

Here`s something about party shuffling taken from this site:
http://www.ipoker.us/Rooms/PartyPoker/Default.aspx

Why is the Shuffle at Party Poker rated lacking?

Party uses a strong cryptographic PRNG for their shuffle. It is a non linear PRNG which means that the results are unpredictable, while this makes for a good secure shuffle it also means that a lot of testing needs to be done to assure that there is no bias. Nonlinear PRNG are not designed to assure that each number has an equal chance of coming out; they are designed to assure that any sequence of random numbers produced are unpredictable, not statistically correct. Extra steps need be taken to assure an unbiased shuffle, by reading their game fairness page it is not clear rather or not these steps have been taken. Party Poker does have a Certificate of Random Number Generator Evaluation from BMM International, However, the tests involved to receive this certification or not available at either the Party Poker or BMM Int. Websites. This alone is not that big of an issue, a secure PRNG can be used for simulation if it has been thoroughly tested for bias. Even with the lack of information about the steps taken to correct possible bias, I would rate the shuffle as good at Party, however, Party Poker lists things “such as network activity, time of the day and several other parameters” as the source of data for their PRNG seeds. Network activity may or not be a good casual enough source for seeds depending on how secure the network is, the time of day is completely insecure. We do not know what the other parameters are or where they come from, so we do not know rather or not they are secure sources. When Party Poker was asked if they used any hardware solutions such as radioactive decay or background noise Party Poker replied that they did not. Party does not state the seed size so we have no way of knowing if they introduce enough entropy into their shuffle to insure there is no bias or that the seed is large enough to make a brute force attack difficult. Exactly how secure the shuffle is at Party Poker depends entirely on the entropy(size) of the seed and the amount of insecure data that comes from sources such as the clock verses the amount of possibly casual enough data that comes from the “other parameters”. Party Poker gets lacking ratings on both the quantity and quality of the information they have provided and for using the time of day as a source of data to produce seeds.

[fluff]

[ QUOTE ]
Why is the Shuffle at Party Poker rated lacking?

[/ QUOTE ]

Interestingly enough they rated Party's Tech Support as Excellent. So the only reasonable explanation is that they're on crack.

[PuppetMaster]

[ QUOTE ]
Ok,

I am new here and am a little bit confused. Am I too assume be reading this whole thread,which is VERY interesting, that all the techniques, and calculating (pot odds, implied odds, outs, etc) are not worth the time and I should focus on the learning of Pattern Mapping?

Also is there a tutorial from anyone to get someone started on doing pattern mapping?
Anything at all for the newbie to start learning some of these processes?



Thanks for putting up with the stupid questions /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Thanks
Thanos

[/ QUOTE ]
see my thread. "Ulysses, you are the King"

[Homer]

Can Party Poker 4th and 5th street cards be predicted?

No.

[BreakEvenPlayer]

No.

The one word that could have killed this thread before it evolved into the beast it is today.

[Adde]

No.

Homer, you're a mean, mean party killer!





/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[Vehn]

So.. did anyone win the essay contest?

[RocketManJames]

So far only one REAL entrie has been received. A minimum of 7 entries is required for ANYONE to receive our pattern mapping software. This includes a dongle for copy-protection purposes.

A few of you have asked me about compatibility... unfortunately our application has been developed strictly for Windows-based platforms. If anyone has any experience porting complex algorithmic code to other platforms, please PM me. Maybe you can receive a free copy of our pattern mapping software. Of course, a strict NDA would be required.

Please, if you want to enter the Consumption Tax Essay contest, please encourage others to participate. Without a minimum of 7 essayists, all entries will be void.

Good luck.

-RMJ

[Chappy99]

I want it. Why? Because! Money good! Broke bad!

[HUSKER'66]

fascinating, simply fascinating.......

You've outdone yourself on this one Ulysses, I commend you.

[Ralle]

[ QUOTE ]
and the following flop:
Ac 5d 4d
what will the turn card be 70% of the time?

[/ QUOTE ]
Well, 34 out of the 49 remaining cards either pair the board, or make a straight or flush possible, so there's an example of that 70% probability.

[Ralle]

Alright, for all you people who may fall for this joke, let me just assure you that 10,000 observed flops is actually even less than the number of distinct flops that are possible, if we take all suits and ranks into account. Needless to say, we're quite far from the point where statistical conclusions can be made...

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
Alright, for all you people who may fall for this joke, let me just assure you that 10,000 observed flops is actually even less than the number of distinct flops that are possible, if we take all suits and ranks into account. Needless to say, we're quite far from the point where statistical conclusions can be made...

[/ QUOTE ]

What's up with that dude?

[ArchAngel71857]

Hi all.

New to the forum and I was wondering why they call this place the Zoo?



-AA

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
Hi all.

New to the forum and I was wondering why they call this place the Zoo?



-AA

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice!

[Cubswin]

Hello all

After my newfound success at party as a result of my pattern map i have found that i have a lot of free time. Anyway, a friend of mine is a big hunter and thought i might like to join him on a snipe hunt. I have never been on a snipe hunt before and was wondering if any of you have? What can i expect? I have hunted dear in the past....is it similiar to deer hunting? Anyway, thanks in advance for your help guys.

regards
cubswin

[N4CER1]

You guys can believe what you want.....but I know 3 college kids that sit in the same games on Party and UB with head phones on and use Roger Wilco.......pretty scary if your in that game......

[Ro-me-ro]

Has anyone got a spare pattern map for True poker?

[ArchAngel71857]

I hear that with True Poker totally syncs up to Pink Floyd's Dark Side of the Moon.


Psychadellic, man!


-AA

[gabyyyyy]

Yes they can be predicted. Online poker is Doomed! /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Nixon]

It is nothing like Deer hunting. It requires two people and a sack, nno guns. Have a great time though, I look forward to hearing how the trip went.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[crazy canuck]

So I was just chit chatting while playing a Paradise 0.5/1 table, and in the middle of the conversation one of the guys casually mentions that Party Poker turn and river cards can be easily predicted.




Shouldn't he be playing at Party then? Or he is just too stupid to figure out the pattern?

[gabyyyyy]

BUMP BUMP

[Goodie]

This may addressed elsewhere, but I can't go through every post.

I do not play at party and I am also skeptical about all this pattern mapping business, but nonetheless, here is my question.

Is this pattern mapping and predicing turn and rivers unique to Party can it be used at all sites as well?

Thanks to anyone who responds, especially ulysses.

Peace

Goodie

[berya]

and ask for this thread to be deleted. It's funny but enough is enough.

thank you

[jedi]

Oh hell no. Just like the "What's wrong with SS" thread, this thread will go down in history as one of the best. Not only is it one of the largest and most viewed threads, but it's spawned all sorts of other threads and inside jokes. Don't deprive the masses.

Besides, who would read all my hidden messages?

<font color="white"> What amazes me is that people are taking this thing seriously, even though there are MULTIPLE posts talking about this as a joke. Unbelievable. </font>




[ QUOTE ]
and ask for this thread to be deleted. It's funny but enough is enough.

thank you

[/ QUOTE ]

[berya]

OK. Then maybe it could be saved somewhere. But it is really getting out of hand.

[CrackerZack]

This is the best thread I've ever read. I have only 4 in my favorites and this is the best of the bunch.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
OK. Then maybe it could be saved somewhere. But it is really getting out of hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

What you talkin' about Willis?

[mikeyvegas]

[ QUOTE ]
b) Yes, monkeys are cool. I am considering getting one as a pet/personal assistant. One cool idea my friends and I came up with was that for Halloween I could dress up as a pirate and then have my pet monkey dress up as a parrot and hang out on my shoulder. How cool would that be?

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know why, but for this line just cracks me up. Good stuff!

[ChipWrecked]

I would like to direct the forum's attention to the fact that I anticipated posts (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Board=gossip&amp;Number=475839&amp;Forum =All_Forums&amp;Words=1138&amp;Match=Username&amp;Searchpage=2 &amp;Limit=25&amp;Old=allposts&amp;Main=473050&amp;Search=true) regarding a National Retail Sales Tax. I was savaged for my views at the time, but who's laughing now?

I did this through a calculated exercise of ESP. (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&amp;Number=478810&amp;page=0&amp;view=collap sed&amp;sb=5&amp;o=14&amp;fpart=2#Post503085)

I don't give a damn about fooling around with a pattern map. However, if a user of said pattern map(s) will sweat my play whenever I ask, IM'ing me with the plays I should make, I will use my ESP powers to tell you when you will die (or not tell you, whichever you prefer). Or, I can tell you when is the next time, if ever, you will have sexual intercourse with a member of the opposite sex (of homo sapiens, Thomastem).

My offer is on the table. Don't bother to PM me. Just send out the vibe, and I'll pick it up.

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
You guys can believe what you want.....but I know 3 college kids that sit in the same games on Party and UB with head phones on and use Roger Wilco.......pretty scary if your in that game......

[/ QUOTE ]

Don't worry about those clowns, I sold them my old log4 Pattern Map for a grand apiece.

[elbooneb]

there is nothing definitive that I can add to the discussion. I believe there is some psychology involved here as well. For some reason, there are people who get antagonistic about computer generated randomness,
but don't seem to be bothered much by human generated randomness (such as a dealer shuffling cards).

I haven't studied random procedures much, but I do know that there are many tests applied to random number generators in the general direction of their output satisfying criteria that a true collection
of random numbers would satisfy. As long as these criteria are met, a human's limited exposure to them should make them appear to be truly random.

Within mathematics there is a subject called Ramsey Theory that has some interesting implications. Essentially, Ramsey Theory tells us that for sufficiently large collections of whatever, you can always find certain very special collections contained in the large collection. Since many special collections are recognizable to the
human eye, some people will respond, "Look, that big collection contains a whatever it is, therefore, the big collection cannot be random."

The preceding - though explained rather fuzzily - make me dubious when dealing with people like ulysse.

I think that ulysse is either a crypto analysis genius, a sick guy with a major dellusional disorder or a liar.

Still waiting for results ulysse...

[AleoMagus]

Come on, don't you think that's a little basic. Oh well, I guess for complete beginners it will have to suffice.

Regards,
Brad S

[Cubswin]

im tired of seeing ryan talk to himself

[HavanaBanana]

Maybe Ryan would be interested in some slightly used maps?
Maybe he will let us know when he sobers up lol

[Cubswin]

Now which Ryan are we talking about? There were two drunk ones posting tonight? Are we talk about Mr businessman or Mr Im going to kill myself? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

cubs

[HavanaBanana]

[ QUOTE ]
There were two drunk ones posting tonight?

[/ QUOTE ]

hmmm, wonder who's been drinking... /images/graemlins/laugh.gif

[ctv1116]

[ QUOTE ]
I've responded to a number of PMs, but rather than respond to the rest, I'll just post this here:

I'm only doing this (running hand history sequences) for serious bidders and I've set up an escrow account for these bidders to place a retainer in. I've currently run multiple 100-hand sequences successfully for 8 bidders and the current bid is well into the six figures. Most of these bidders represent high-stakes individual gamblers or consortiums.

I have also decided to offer ONE and only ONE free copy to whoever can post the best essay in this thread describing why they deserve a free copy. I'm doing that both as a sort of public service but also so there will be one amateur gambler who can post testimonials about his or her results (I doubt any of the bidders will publicize their usage).

[/ QUOTE ]

When I first posted this thread, I was probably on tilt in the middle of a 100BB downswing, and frankly was willing to listen to any and all conspiracy theories. And so, like I said in my original post, this random player just waltzes into the table, a pretty chatty player and we're talking about how Paradise is a rock garden compared to Party. And then all of a sudden he randomly blurts that he can predict 4th and 5th street cards on Party. So I figure, why not post it on 2+2, the greatest poker forum in the world?

Judging by the first few responses, I felt like I was an idiot fish micro-limit player for asking such a stupid question to the brilliant, battle-tested professionals that make up the Zoo. Ulysses, I even thought your original post was a thinly veiled attempt at bashing my naivity. Alas, I was wrong.

I feel I deserve this free copy because well, I started this thread. I don't know if you had ever planned to eventually "come out of the closet" with your pattern mapping innovation, but I provided you with an avenue to let your secret out. As a result of this thread, you will be able to get a 6-figure (or more) payoff, and likely vault yourself into gambling lore at the same level, or perhaps exceeding, the great MIT Vegas blackjack heist.

I know you probably would have eventually came out and just made your own thread revealing your pattern mapping program, but frankly, the way you did it on this thread was so much better. Alas, if I don't win the program, I will have to go purchase Majorkong's book to learn how to actually play poker.

[Piers]

Currently just past 7K views, reckon we can get over 10k?

[RainDog]

If any of you spent the same amount of time working on your game as you do coming up with these fanciful posts, I wouldn't be a winning player.

[Cubswin]

Without the new Log9 pattern map you dont stand a chance of being a winning player /images/graemlins/grin.gif

cubs

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
If any of you spent the same amount of time working on your game as you do coming up with these fanciful posts, I wouldn't be a winning player.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's called multi-tasking my newbie friend.

[me454555]

This could be the single most pathetic thread in the history of 2+2. Why would anyone pay upwards of 6 figures for a this program? How long do you think its going to take untill party finds out about this loophole and plugs it. My guess, is a month or 2, by June it will be obsolete for sure. Why don't you just learn how to play, its a lot cheaper than buying a program

[Stew]

[ QUOTE ]
This could be the single most pathetic thread in the history of 2+2. Why would anyone pay upwards of 6 figures for a this program? How long do you think its going to take untill party finds out about this loophole and plugs it. My guess, is a month or 2, by June it will be obsolete for sure. Why don't you just learn how to play, its a lot cheaper than buying a program

[/ QUOTE ]

ROFL, I'm sure the programmers at Party are hard at work. In fact, I just spoke to my sources there and they are forming an anti-pattern mapping task force on Monday. It's top secret stuff, but I thought I'd let all my friends here in teh zoo know.

[Lori]

It's top secret stuff, but I thought I'd let all my friends here in teh zoo know.

Amazing how much top secret stuff we are getting in this thread alone.
It just goes to show that the zoo really is the best forum ever, it is great that we can trust everyone not to say anything.

Lori

[Cubswin]

they have been failing me lately... could party have changed their RNG formula /images/graemlins/grin.gif

regards
cubs

PS just bumping this because im tired of read ole whats his names posts

[acrylic48]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll select a winner in one week. If a really great essay goes up, though, I'll just select it and end the contest right then. So, if you're interested, get your essay up as quickly as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why I Deserve the Pattern Map

I deserve the pattern map for one reason, I need money. You must be thinking, wait a second, everyone needs money. Well you are right, but some need it more than others. I am currently a freshman in college and my debt is just starting to accumulate. I still have three years ahead of me with tuition already at $25,000 a year. Tuition will only go up. I got a decent financial age package, but my parents can still only afford to play a small percentage of my tuition. I am forced to work two jobs and take out student loans to finance my education.

In my limited spare time I play poker on the side to generate some spending money for the weekends. I have been playing seriously for two years, read lots of books, and lurked around the message boards for sometime now. I have not posted much, but I constantly read as many new posts as possible. I feel they have made a significant improvement on my game.

If I get this pattern map it will drastically change my life for the better. I will be able to stop working one of my jobs and I will be able to replace it with poker time that will generate me more income than any part time job on campus could. Hopefully I will be able to reach a point where I can pay off my tuition based on a monthly payment plan. I may be able to leave college with little to no debt.

I made the deadline with over four hours to spare.

Thanks for you time and generous offer.

I hope you choose me.

Thanks again,
Kate /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[morgant]

you should sell drugs. no taxes, huge profit margin, college kids are the perfect sales target, no need to write an essay to your supplier why you deserve a pound of buds.

[t_perkin]

May I ask what degree you are studying for?

Please tell me you go to a crap university and that you study a nothing degree. Otherwise my opinion of the US education system will be forever set in stone.

tim

[ScottTheFish]

Kate when you sent me a PM asking for my pattern map, I informed you pattern maps don't exist, and are a joke.

But thanks to your expensive private collidge educayshun, it's clear that you saw right through my clever deception.

Well done!

[acrylic48]

[ QUOTE ]
May I ask what degree you are studying for?

Please tell me you go to a crap university and that you study a nothing degree. Otherwise my opinion of the US education system will be forever set in stone.

tim

[/ QUOTE ]

University of New Hampshire
Majoring in Finance

[acrylic48]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll select a winner in one week. If a really great essay goes up, though, I'll just select it and end the contest right then. So, if you're interested, get your essay up as quickly as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who won???

[jedi]

I think you won. What you won, is the question /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I'll select a winner in one week. If a really great essay goes up, though, I'll just select it and end the contest right then. So, if you're interested, get your essay up as quickly as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Who won???

[/ QUOTE ]

[jek187]

[ QUOTE ]
Who won???

[/ QUOTE ]

If it was anyone but the guy who wrote about Bobo the bear, then that is a crime against humanity.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who won???

[/ QUOTE ]

If it was anyone but the guy who wrote about Bobo the bear, then that is a crime against humanity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some hot college chick sent me some naked pics and promised to sleep w/ me, so I decided to forget about the essay contest and just give her the pattern map.

[pudley4]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who won???

[/ QUOTE ]

If it was anyone but the guy who wrote about Bobo the bear, then that is a crime against humanity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some hot college chick sent me some naked pics and promised to sleep w/ me, so I decided to forget about the essay contest and just give her the pattern map.

[/ QUOTE ]

Was it her?

http://www.uglypeople.com/uploaded/11711/0067.jpg

[daveymck]

The bastard slept with my mother I am not happy. /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/blush.gif /images/graemlins/ooo.gif

But thanks for the pattern map, hahahahahaha my plan worked those pesky .50/1 tables on party will be mine.

[Lori]

Where is the fifth digit going to go when this thread gets 10000 views?

Will pattern maps destroy 2+2 as well as online poker?

Lori

[acrylic48]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who won???

[/ QUOTE ]

If it was anyone but the guy who wrote about Bobo the bear, then that is a crime against humanity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some hot college chick sent me some naked pics and promised to sleep w/ me, so I decided to forget about the essay contest and just give her the pattern map.

[/ QUOTE ]

So basically your contest was a load of bullshit?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who won???

[/ QUOTE ]

If it was anyone but the guy who wrote about Bobo the bear, then that is a crime against humanity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some hot college chick sent me some naked pics and promised to sleep w/ me, so I decided to forget about the essay contest and just give her the pattern map.

[/ QUOTE ]

So basically your contest was a load of bullshit?

[/ QUOTE ]

Absolutely not. I fully intended to award the map to the best essay, but this chick is really hot.

That didn't affect you anyway, though. Your essay came in third place after the one about Bobo the bear and the biography of Genghis Khan.

[thomastem]

All of his is interesting but what we all want to knw is, "What's wrong with the SS forum?"

[daveymck]

Sorry but I must report you to the mod, it is a disgrace trying to hijack this already meaty thread with a return to your attempt at longest most viewed thread ever.

PLease delete this post and never ask that question again, you realise this is not the SS forum so ask your questions there.

/images/graemlins/wink.gif

[jedi]

I realize that the future of America is in the hands of our college students. Then I get really afraid. Hopefully the elementary schools on up can help with future students' reading comprehension.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Who won???

[/ QUOTE ]

If it was anyone but the guy who wrote about Bobo the bear, then that is a crime against humanity.

[/ QUOTE ]

Some hot college chick sent me some naked pics and promised to sleep w/ me, so I decided to forget about the essay contest and just give her the pattern map.

[/ QUOTE ]

So basically your contest was a load of bullshit?

[/ QUOTE ]

[Ulysses]

OK, I think I might have acted inappropriately here. I said that I was going to give a prize to the best essay and then, in awarding the prize to someone who did not even write an essay (though her naked pics are really hot), did not live up to the terms of my offer. This was not fair and I apologize.

So, given that, I've decided that I will indeed award a pattern map to the winning essay. And since there were three that were very good, I'll have an essay-off. The best followup-essay will win the prize. Here is the topic that each of you must write on:

[Bobo the bear essay] - Why monkeys are cooler than bears

[Genghis Khan] - Why Mongol warlords rule

[Kate] - Why I need a pattern map to win lots at poker if I've been studying the game and playing seriously for two years

I will be back to judge these soon, so please get them written as quickly as possible. My apologies for any misunderstandings in round one of my essay contest.

[ThePinkBunny]

They are 100% accurate, and do not require knowing the previous hands.

There is a catch though, because Party switches, the primer on their random number generator so often, that it is impossible to use the pattern map in real time.

However if you give me any flop and the hand # so I can use the right primer for it, I can tell with 100% accuracy what the turn and river cards were, and in the case of the hand ending before they are dealt, what they would have been.

For this service I only charge $3 per hand.

Visit my website www.pizzathemovie.com (http://www.pizzathemovie.com) for more details.

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[acrylic48]

[ QUOTE ]
OK, I think I might have acted inappropriately here. I said that I was going to give a prize to the best essay and then, in awarding the prize to someone who did not even write an essay (though her naked pics are really hot), did not live up to the terms of my offer. This was not fair and I apologize.

So, given that, I've decided that I will indeed award a pattern map to the winning essay. And since there were three that were very good, I'll have an essay-off. The best followup-essay will win the prize. Here is the topic that each of you must write on:

[Bobo the bear essay] - Why monkeys are cooler than bears

[Genghis Khan] - Why Mongol warlords rule

[Kate] - Why I need a pattern map to win lots at poker if I've been studying the game and playing seriously for two years

I will be back to judge these soon, so please get them written as quickly as possible. My apologies for any misunderstandings in round one of my essay contest.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why I need a pattern map to win lots at poker if I have been studying the game and playing seriously for two years

Right now I am winning a little over 1BB per hour. But thanks to my limited bankroll, that 1BB is not much money at all. If I get the pattern map, I will be able to use it to increase my bankroll significantly. Then, whenever party switches to a new log formula, making the current map obsolete, I will have enough money to play at the higher stakes which will make my 1BB per hour goal much more significant. Instead of having some spending money, I’ll be able to pay off a portion of my tuition bills and still have a little spending money left over. I figure I can use the pattern map to put myself in the best position after I graduate. That is why I need a pattern map to win lots at poker even though I have been studying the game and playing seriously for two years.

Thanks so much for reconsidering

I hope you pick me

Kate /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jedi]

Bump.

No comment here. Just wanted to keep this thread going (hahaha) /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Cubswin]

good bump IMHO...i want to see this get 10,000 view /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[jedi]

Lol. I think Kate should be made to submit another essay, since a paragraph hardly counts as an essay.

Maybe a second one should be entitled: "So, what's wrong with SS?"

[ QUOTE ]
good bump IMHO...i want to see this get 10,000 view /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

[Ulysses]

Kate,

Sorry I haven't had time to respond to your PMs. I guess you win by default, since neither of the other finalists submitted a follow-up essay. But I must admit that I am a little disappointed. As jedi pointed out, a hastily composed paragraph hardly qualifies as an essay. Nonetheless, I guess you win.

There's one glitch. A few people have approached me with concerns that using a pattern map is cheating. After some thought, I'm inclined to agree. So, I'm not going to use a pattern map anymore. I would like to hear your thoughts on this topic. Please post to this thread, as I don't check my PMs regularly. Any response is fine, though essay form is always appreciated. Based on your feedback on this topic, I'll decide whether or not I should destroy my pattern maps. I would definitely like to hear points for both sides - why it is or is not cheating.

[ArchAngel71857]

I have my friend Harvey the Rabbit look at my opponenets cards and then tell me what they are. If this is cheating, then destroy your pattern maps.

-AA

[Piers]

[ QUOTE ]
A Pokerbot has finally arrived. statman 7123 377


[/ QUOTE ]
If we're not cearful it will beat us to 10K /images/graemlins/shocked.gif

[acrylic48]

[ QUOTE ]
Kate,

Sorry I haven't had time to respond to your PMs. I guess you win by default, since neither of the other finalists submitted a follow-up essay. But I must admit that I am a little disappointed. As jedi pointed out, a hastily composed paragraph hardly qualifies as an essay. Nonetheless, I guess you win.

There's one glitch. A few people have approached me with concerns that using a pattern map is cheating. After some thought, I'm inclined to agree. So, I'm not going to use a pattern map anymore. I would like to hear your thoughts on this topic. Please post to this thread, as I don't check my PMs regularly. Any response is fine, though essay form is always appreciated. Based on your feedback on this topic, I'll decide whether or not I should destroy my pattern maps. I would definitely like to hear points for both sides - why it is or is not cheating.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why It Is Cheating

To all people that oppose pattern maps (because they do not have one) it is obvious why they think possessing and using one is cheating. The person using it knows what cards are going to come on the turn and river eighty-five percent of the time. When playing against people that do not have a pattern map, it does not take a rocket scientist to figure out that he or she has a huge advantage.

It seems to be too easy, like stealing candy from a baby. Look at the map, see what cards are going to come out, and then raise and re-raise as much as possible. When you flip over your 3-5 off suit that has turned into the nut straight, the person holding pocket aces will not be too happy.

When someone shows off junk hands and repeatedly takes down huge pots it is apparent something is wrong. When the map is used like that, it is obviously cheating. And that is not how I plan to use the pattern map. Read on to hear my plan.

Why It Is Not Cheating

If Ulysses decides to give me the map I will not use it like mentioned above. I plan to still play only premium hands (depending on my position and opponents). I will simply use the map to make sure my hands will be the best. Should we award people for playing bad poker? Should we applaud the person that is not using a pattern map, but still takes down huge pots with his 3-5 off suit against my aces?

No we should not. I know it is a harsh view but I really think these people deserve to lose their money. If they think they can play horrible hands and be a steady winner they need to be taught a lesson. That is not how to play poker correctly and it is not fair to a regular person like me that is trying to do their best to win. We all hate bad beats. We all know that getting outdrawn is one of the worst feelings in the world. That is why I am going to use the map to make sure my premium starting hands will end up making the best hand.

If I stop getting outdrawn, I am certain that my BB per hour will raise a pretty significant amount. And for me, the money is going to a good place, my tuition bills. So in my eyes, it is not cheating to take more money from horrible players than I am now and put it towards paying for my education.

Thanks again for the opportunity Ulysses.

I hope you decide to give the map to me because I will use it well and wisely.

Thanks again,

Kate /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[fluff]

Man, I'm truly wondering if you're for real or if you're by far the smoothest person in this thread...

[acrylic48]

Bump

[Ulysses]

I'm pretty biased here, so I think I'll let some of the members of this forum chime in as to whether or not they are convinced by your essay that your intended use would not constitute cheating.

[acrylic48]

When are you going to decide?

Can we put a deadline on this?
This has been going on for some time now.

[HavanaBanana]

I suggest the deadline to be set at 10 000 views /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[jedi]

Did you ask for an essay on each topic? Because I think 3 paragraphs per topic don't constitute an essay. Each paragraph is really made up of 1 or two sentences, and should probably be put together. I think Kate is trying to scam you by putting blank lines in between sentences to make it seem like a paragraph.

Regardless, this is much much less than I expect from college level students.

[acrylic48]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm pretty biased here, so I think I'll let some of the members of this forum chime in as to whether or not they are convinced by your essay that your intended use would not constitute cheating.

[/ QUOTE ]

Can you please set a definite deadline?