Losing streak - when do you start to worry about your play?

[el_grande]

I'm in a losing streak at my 3/6 B&M game. I've lost 63BB in the last 10 hours of play. That puts me at -16BB for my total time at that room which is about 40 hours. I will spare you the bad beat stories because nobody wants to hear that. Most significant to the streak is having 5 out of 7 sets cracked by flushes and higher sets. There aren't any hands I think are worth posting. Maybe a few where I could have saved a little here and there, but nothing thought I played badly. I consider myself fairly tight- I play a little looser than Lee Jones WLLHE style since I find myself at passive tables. I'll keep suited kings and low pocket pairs in middle position. I get away from them on the flop unless something really good happens.

I understand the concept of variance, but I'm not sure what kind of variance to expect (other than Homer's article at Crockpot's page). At what point to you start to realize you are doing something wrong?

And... how bad do you think this streak is? Is it typical?

Thanks!

[Stu Pidasso]

You have not described anything that is not normal. Expect much bigger swings than the one your in. I just got off a 150bb swing. You have to accept that big swings are a necessary part of poker and without them we could not be winners. If your concerned about your play post some hands.


If you have a swing of 300bb its safe to say you are probably not a winning player.

Stu

[el_grande]

Thanks. I really want to know what kind of swings good players like the ones here are getting.

Hopefully more people will respond.

[MaxPower]

Very typical results. 40 hours is nothing. A solid player can easily lose that much in 40 hours even if he makes no mistakes.

Except in the very long term (100's of hours) you shouldn't judge your play based on your results.

Expect the worst. You can play perfect poker and lose 200 big bets over the next 100 hours.

As far as your question goes, I always evaluate my play whether I am winning or losing.

If you think you did something wrong. Post it here. We won't be shy about telling you.

[Luke]

It doesn't sound like you are having any out of the ordinary swings. Having 5 out of 7 sets cracked will cause some losses. Not much you can do about it.

As for when should you start worrying - I'm always worrying about my play. Well, I don't know if worrying is the right word.

I'm always thinking about my play. Should I have limped or raised preflop? Called that turn raise? Bet the river? ect. I'm always analyzing my play and thinking of ways to improve, whether I'm winning or losing.

A good illustration is the other night I was playing with my fionce. She has very limited experience but is improving. Anyway, she missed a couple clear river value bets and I pointed it out to her. She replied by saying, "it doesn't matter, I'm winning!" Well, I said, "You have more money than you started with but that's not winning poker. I feel that you just lost money by missing those bets."

I think you get the idea.

So I analyze my plan, up or down, coming off a rush or a downswing. A big part of hand analysis form me is reading and writing posts on 2+2. I suggest you post some hands, even if you are *sure* you played them right. Pick about 5 hands that you played in a session - post them - and see what the SSers think. They're not shy.

I'll keep suited kings and low pocket pairs in middle position.

Suited kings in middle position? I hope you're not playing hands like K5s in MP. Post some hands...

Luke

[jonahmavesin]

Interesting question:

Mason says the right bankroll is 300BB. This makes sense if a big downswing is 150BB. But let's say you hit that downswing. Now you're at 150BB. How do you make the call that you are just on a bad run vs. a losing player, given that in the former case you'll probably come out of your plummet, and in the latter case you'll probably lose your whole bankroll? At what point do you drop down? Do you really need more than 300BB?

[ropey]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, she missed a couple clear river value bets and I pointed it out to her. She replied by saying, "it doesn't matter, I'm winning!" Well, I said, "You have more money than you started with but that's not winning poker. I feel that you just lost money by missing those bets."

[/ QUOTE ]

I tried this with my girlfriend...I hope that you will have more success than I did!

-ropey

[J.R.]

But let's say you hit that downswing. Now you're at 150BB. How do you make the call that you are just on a bad run vs. a losing player

You have to decide youself whether you are being outplayed or outdrawn. The best way is to identify the mistakes made by both you and your opponents. If you can't find your opponent's mistakes and/or are unhappy/uncomfortable with you own play, then its time to step down.

Do you really need more than 300BB?

This number assumes you win about 1 big bet/hr with a standard deviation of around 11 (from my iffy memory), so the answer comes from your performance.

[biggambler]

Most women are just naturally less aggressive then men. Work on other parts of her game that will sink in and she will use.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
when do you start to worry about your play?


[/ QUOTE ]

Never. Well, you won't have to 'worry' as long as you constantly work on your game. Read, play, post, think, share, debate and make the adjustments that will help your game evolve into a stronger one. If you find yourself winning then give up studying, reading, etc, you will become stale and grow mold.

Poker is so massively complex there are many levels with each step. As long as you keep working at it you will continue to grow and never have to 'worry'.

Peace,
Joe Tall

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
But let's say you hit that downswing. Now you're at 150BB. How do you make the call that you are just on a bad run vs. a losing player

[/ QUOTE ]

For the inexperienced but promising new player I recommend the following.


Even with a 300bb bankroll you can play a winning game and lose all your bankroll. What that chance is that you will play a winning game and still lose all your bank roll is player dependant. However, if you practice the strategy of stepping down in limits once you lose half your bankroll, the chances of you ever going broke if you play a winning game are inconsequential.

If your a winning player and practice this strategy, you will eventually win. If you go broke practicing this strategy, its time to rethink weather you should really be playing poker.

Stu

[Bob T.]

There was a thread a couple of months ago, where people listed their biggest losing streaks. At the same time, I think there was also a thread about their win rates.

As to your other question. You should treat improving your game, just like maintenance on a vintage car. There are probably always small things that need tinkering with. Just because it is running good, you don't necessarily ignore oil changes, checking the air pressure on the tires, etc.. By the time you are running bad, it might take more fixing than you know.

[Ulysses]

These two posts should be in a FAQ or something:

This one (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=426921& Forum=smallholdem&Words=losing%20streak&Match=Enti re%20Phrase&Searchpage=3&Limit=25&Old=3months&Main =426921&Search=true#Post426921)

and

This one (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=smallholdem&Number=445039& Forum=smallholdem&Words=losing%20streak&Match=Enti re%20Phrase&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&Old=3months&Main =445039&Search=true#Post445039)

Here's something I think is useful to do. After a particularly bad session (this is a worthwhile exercise after a good session as well), think back to the big hands you were involved in where there were lots of bets and raises. On the streets where most of the money went in, were you in the lead?

If you cap pre-flop w/ the best hand, cap the flop w/ a set, cap the turn w/ a set, and then bet and call a raise at the end when someone rivers a flush, that's perfect. W/ a 4-bet cap you put in 8BB in the lead and 2BB behind.

If you raise pre-flop w/ the best hand and get called, bet and get called on the flop and turn, then cap the river when someone rivers a flush, no good. You put in about 2BB in the lead then 4BB when behind.

At a general level, the first indication that I'm not playing well is when I find myself putting a lot of money in the pot when I'm behind.

[harboral]

In response to what kind swings others have had - here is what I had in my last 100 sessions:
72 winners
25 losers
3 break even
longest winning streak was 9 sessions (+210 BB)
longest losing streak was 3 sessions (-95 BB)
100 Sessions 254 hours (+1788 BB)

I am tigher than a lot of players
I am less aggressive than a lot of the 2+2'ers I have played

This morning I was up 30BB and then down 90BB while playing 3 games of $2/4 in my first hour before coming in at -12BB.

[lefty rosen]

Many times when you play low pockets out of position it leads to these problems at a low limit game. Also use your head if a bad calling station bets into your triples on the river and a logical flush hits call don't raise. All of these things save you money. You have to be ultra conservative(aggressive when should have the best of it) to beat a low limit live game because the rake is fierce and its much easier to become mentally weak due to the slower play.

[CrazyEyez]

[ QUOTE ]
40 hours is nothing. A solid player can easily lose that much in 40 hours even if he makes no mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the flip side also true? I have a grand total of 37 hours at my B&M $2/$4 and I'm up 64BB. Can I assume I'm at least doing SOMETHING right? Or could that just as easily be a wave of good cards? I have already made many changes(improvements) to my game since my first 10-20 hours.

[MaxPower]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
40 hours is nothing. A solid player can easily lose that much in 40 hours even if he makes no mistakes.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is the flip side also true? I have a grand total of 37 hours at my B&M $2/$4 and I'm up 64BB. Can I assume I'm at least doing SOMETHING right? Or could that just as easily be a wave of good cards? I have already made many changes(improvements) to my game since my first 10-20 hours.

[/ QUOTE ]

You could very likely be getting lucky over 37 hours.

There are two ways to figure out whether you are a winning player: Statisitics and logic.

Statistically, you are going to need many more hours until you can be sure you are a winner. I don't know the exact number of hours, but it is in the hundreds. I calculated my win rate and standard deviation after 360 hours of playing online and that was enough to confirm that my win rate was positive (95% confidence). But even with that many hours, the 95% confidence interval on my win rate was large.

Logically, you can look at your play and that of your opponents and determine whether you can beat the game. If you are new, this could be tough to do.

You might be a winning player if:
You frequently get outdrawn on the river.
You rarely outdraw someone on the river with less than 8 outs.
You fold the vast majority of your hands pre-flop.
You Bet and Raise more frequently than you call.
You fold a lot on the flop.

If that describes you and the opposite of those statements describes your opponents, I think you are a winning player in your game.

I guess that's pretty obvious.

[Stu Pidasso]

[ QUOTE ]
I have a grand total of 37 hours at my B&M $2/$4 and I'm up 64BB. Can I assume I'm at least doing SOMETHING right?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, you can play a losing game in quadruple a decent bankroll in a very short period of time. However, if you play long enough you will give it all back. It just takes a while for "everything to catch up".

One thing you have to understand about poker is that the random element of the game very often rewards bad play and punishes good play. However, if poker did not reward bad play, winning players would not be able to win over the long term.

If you really have to know right now how well your playing instead of waiting to see if you blow your bankroll over the long run, start posting hands. We'll let you know.

Stu

[bernie]

this is nothing really.

online, ive had swings that went into 250+bb. of course it helped that i had 13 sets cracked without winning. that's 13 sets losing before 1 finally held up. that's alot. and it sucked.

live ive gone through 150+ bb swings. longest run lasted about 7 weeks. 7 weeks playing 20-30 hours a week. that sucked too.

always watch how your game is. even when you are winning. you may not be winning as much as you should. once you learn how to really analyze your play and recognize a leak that may have sprung, and they will, then youll be able to really chalk it up to run of cards. self analysis really doesnt take too long once you get used to it and know what to look for. go street by street in your play if you have to.

the good thing about that is most books are broken up by streets. so you can just go to the section of which street a leak may have sprung and patch it.

or you could just be having a sh*tty run of cards. like ive had the last week. you may not have a leak.

things can get worse, even if you are playing fine.

great game, isnt it?

b

[Mike Gallo]

I've lost 63BB in the last 10 hours of play

Post after you have reached about 200 bb.

I understand the concept of variance, but I'm not sure what kind of variance to expect

Read Gambling Theory and Other Topics from Mason Malmuth.
Having a solid foundation on gambling theory will help you with your poker game.

[kiddo]

Are you really winning 7BB/hour at $2/4 playing 3 tables?

That would be 21BB/hour or $84/hour?

Ok, you only got 254 hour and can be on a good run but... well... 7BB/hour is a very, very good win rate, especially playing 3 tables cause then you always miss 1 or 2 BB/hour at each table not knowing how the other players play and making other marginal misstakes.

Congratualations and well done if I understood your post right. /images/graemlins/laugh.gif