Lay these Aces down?

[Acesover8s]

$1-$2 NLHE game. Been alternating between battle for the blinds and 5 limpers a hand, seemingly without reason.

In this hand, It's folded to the Button ($134) Who limps. SB folds, I have AA in the BB. I make it $7 to go. He calls.

Flop is QT3 rainbow. I bet $15. He makes it $60 to go.

Raise, call or fold.

[ThaSaltCracka]

fold the aces, on the button he has a hand good enough to limp in with, but not raise, since he all ready called $2 its not that unreasonable to think he may call again with pocket 3's or Q-10, he could possibly slow play a pocket pair as well, the fact he re-raised you on the flop is dangerous. he may have hit two pair or a set. I would only call if you felt he was a player who constantly buys pots, if not fold.
by the way I liked the raise pre-flop, that was probably the correct amount, maybe could have done $10

[crockpot]

i don't know about folding, but a call vs. raise debate sounds like fun here. if you call, presumably you'll bet all in on any turn card but a queen. the risk is that if he raised you on a bluff or KJ and a queen turns, you'll throw away the best hand. if you push in now, he'll presumably call unless he's on a pure bluff, and will also call the turn all-in. the advantage is that if a queen turns, you will probably wish you could have gotten away from the hand. i think i prefer the all-in to the fold, but it's close.

based on the bet sizes, i assume this is UB. that bet pot button really hurts the psychology of no-limit. since a lot of players like to just click bet pot with anything, i'd probably feel comfortable playing this hand for all my chips. remember, he open limped and then didn't reraise you, so QQ or TT is very unlikely.

[mauisupaman]

Aces,
What kind of player is the button? And how big is your stack? That's an awful large raise the button stuck in there. Looks like he's trying to protect his hand or take it down with a big semi-bluff. If you've got $10 bucks left I'd call in an instant, but if you've got $130 left I'd think for a second and then go all in - just joking.

I think most average players won't expect you to raise HU with AA pre flop, so I still think with a raise that large he's trying to protect a hand or hoping to win it right there with a draw. So, I'd push it in.

[ThaSaltCracka]

I could see this person not raising on the button with a pocket pair, is it really worth an extra raise on the button for $4, I don't think so, a slow play is more likely, especially with the call after his bet. Now that being said, he could have had any pocket pair, 10's or higher, I still think the Q-10 is possible. I think he had a hand.
However, if the player bluffed, what a move, you would have to give him props for that.

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]
don't know about folding, but a call vs. raise debate sounds like fun here. if you call, presumably you'll bet all in on any turn card but a queen. the risk is that if he raised you on a bluff or KJ and a queen turns, you'll throw away the best hand. if you push in now, he'll presumably call unless he's on a pure bluff, and will also call the turn all-in. the advantage is that if a queen turns, you will probably wish you could have gotten away from the hand. i think i prefer the all-in to the fold, but it's close.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is interesting, Crock. I had originally written in my post:

[ QUOTE ]
Raise or fold? I'll assume no one would just call here.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a play I'll have to consider in the future.

And yes is was UB, and I hate the bet pot button. Although in NLHE I rarely bet the pot (Usually overbet it PF and underbet it PF).

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]
What kind of player is the button? And how big is your stack? That's an awful large raise the button stuck in there. Looks like he's trying to protect his hand or take it down with a big semi-bluff. If you've got $10 bucks left I'd call in an instant, but if you've got $130 left I'd think for a second and then go all in - just joking.


[/ QUOTE ]

I know nothing about the player. I don't play at UB enough to keep notes, and rarely play NLHE. I will say I'd been getting pushed around a bit on this table and had made some (correct) big folds.

I had 140$ in this hand and he had about 5$ less. So his raise really threatens my whole stack.

[crockpot]

Although in NLHE I rarely bet the pot (Usually overbet it PF and underbet it PF).

way to separate your preflop and postflop play into a clearly understandable dichotomy.

by the way, this flat call is somewhat similar to the play described in PL and NL Poker where stewart reuben bets his A-K top pair and gets raised by a possible draw, then waits to see if the turn card missed him to put his chips in. it's just a less obvious application.

[Acesover8s]

[ QUOTE ]
by the way, this flat call is somewhat similar to the play described in PL and NL Poker where stewart reuben bets his A-K top pair and gets raised by a possible draw, then waits to see if the turn card missed him to put his chips in. it's just a less obvious application.

[/ QUOTE ]

Now that you mention it I recall that section. And it is a play I use in PLO, example when I flop top set on a board like KQ8s. Bet and get raised with plenty of money left, here I prefer to see a safe turn card and then move in.

[ QUOTE ]
Although in NLHE I rarely bet the pot (Usually overbet it PF and underbet it PF).

way to separate your preflop and postflop play into a clearly understandable dichotomy.

[/ QUOTE ]

Meaning what exactly?

[crockpot]

i'm no english major, but isn't the point of abbreviations that you create a different one for each possible situation?

[Acesover8s]

Wow, time for a confession. Unless you've missed my prior posts, let it be known that I have a bit of a drinking problem. And not in the Airplane, throw the drink on my face kind of way.

I meant, I tend to overbet the pot PRF and underbet it POF.

[limon]

this is totally player specific and you say nothing about the player. dont tell me...this is some sort of on line shiat...

[wontons]

if the guy knows what his doing he DEF had you beat imagine yourself in his position would u raise sumone who had shown strenght preflop and bet a modest amount on the flop...would u raise to 60 after the guy bet into you without nething less than 2 pair...i think im right here..please post results even thou im pretty sure thats what the guy/girl hand.

[Acesover8s]

You should wear a t-shirt whereever you go. And this shirt should say in large bold letters:

I'm A Total Douche

[n1stunnor]

HOLLAAAAAAA!

[muzungu]

hello A8-
A few thoughts... if he has KQ or QJ or AT or something like that, he's ahead of a decent # of hands here. From his perspective, he's losing to AA, KK, AQ, QQ and TT, and ahead of AK, AJ, JJ, any smaller PP, and anything else you might be making a move with. If he has called with a decent Q, and his top pair comes, (or KJ, and his OESD comes) one might expect him to give some action, thus "justifying" his preflop call and putting you to the test to see if you're using the momentum from your PF bet to try to push him off the hand.

Hmm... although perhaps he'd smooth call or something that didn't take up half his stack... On the other hand, I play UB as well, and I too am often tempted by the ease of the "bet pot" button... /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

Umm... as for QQ and TT, I usually play big hands strongly from LP is such a situation to give cover to later steals. Of the PP, 33 seems more likely, although I might try to steal with that as well if I'm going to play it at all. Although, now that I think about it, that's how I feel about most hands in that situation...

Re: the bluff- I'll consider making such a bluff sometimes when it's clear that the other player is representing strength, and I have a hand that has outs and that I would have thus far played similarly to a very strong hand. For example, I hold QJ, see the QTx board, and think "would have made the same plays with QT to get to this point... have some outs to an overpair... he might be making a play, in which case I'm ahead... lets take a swing". Same with KJ, with the OESD. But not often, tho.

One more thought... even if he has QT, you're not totally dead. Looks like you'd be getting $73 EV for $112 that you'd still have to put in (presuming you go all in at some point). This isn't a huge price to pay IF you think he could make this play with several holdings that are large underdogs.

So I'd certainly play, (probably all-in), although I'm not super-convinced by what I've just written. Crockpot, et al, feel free to poke holes in my logic.

Cheers!

Dan

[Shaun]

This player could have a hand like AQ. If he had a set, he'd raise you less I'd imagine. Two Pair is more likely here. Still, if he is the kind of player that will try and push you out with a draw, you need to re-raise here I think. The size of his raise to me sounds a lot like AQ. This is raise or fold I think, and without knowing the player I'd probably raise.

[Guy McSucker]

Hmmm. I've been trying to think of hands that your opponent might have which beat you. I can't really think of any.

With QQ or TT: I can believe that he might play these hands this way before the flop, trying to get something out of them. But now he's hit a monster and still his opponent keeps firing. Given that he was trapping before the flop, I think he'd carry on doing so, and either raise smaller or not at all.

I can't believe in 33. If he's half way decent, he wouldn't play them that way before the flop.

With QT: again, the preflop play is desperately suspect. Why would you limp in on the button with QT? And then call a raise? I just can't see it.

T3, Q3 are impossible, surely. So I am kind of confident that the aces are winning here. So what has he got?

I can believe in AQ or KQ. People seem to think these are big hands and might be tempted to "slowplay" them preflop; and everyone knows you need to bet top pair with a decent kicker hard when heads up.

I could also believe in KK, trapping before the flop, and raising now in the hope you have a queen.

I don't read him for KJ or J9, again because of the preflop play, so I am not too worried about his being on a draw. Therefore free cards are not too much of a problem.

So in my opinion, unless the guy is playing very strangely, there are only two possibilities: he's betting a losing hand he thinks is good, and has very few outs, or he's bluffing.

In the first case, he will call if you move in; in the second he will not. But in the first case, he will also bet again if you call now and check it to him on the turn, and he might do that in the second case. So the play is to call here and check the turn, looking to check-raise all-in. If it gets checked through, just shove it in on the river.

If a Q turns, you can fold.

Other possibilities: he's a complete idiot or a complete genius and does indeed have us beat. If he's an idiot you can't get a read, and might as well commit to the hand. It's kind of hard to outflop aces, no matter how stupid you are. I still like the play above in this case, although of course there's the danger he hits a five outer. And I just don't think he's a genius, because there are so few hands that are correct to limp in with on the button when everyone else has folded. Like, uh, zero.

Okay how badly wrong am I?

Guy.

[Wardfish]

Assuming this guy is not a ROCK, you probably have the best hand more than half the time. Most players online smooth-call with trips or top 2 pair. What do you know about this guy?

Get your money in now. If you are wrong, reload and go again. You cant be right all of the the time. These things happen.

You have a good chance to double through (assuming you have about the same stack size), which is where you want to be, as then you can double through a bigger stack and rack up a decent win.

I try to think of the bigger picture in this situation.

[tewall]

Another argument for calling, which Guy mentions, is that if he's on a bluff and you just call, he may continue it.

[crockpot]

yes, but if i call here it is with the intention of pushing in on the turn. i'm not about to give the guy a free card, and most people don't have the stomach to keep bluffing when half their stack gets called.

[tewall]

That's true. Guy was suggesting a different line, which would risk giving 2 free cards.

[WalleyeJason]

[ QUOTE ]
With QT: again, the preflop play is desperately suspect. Why would you limp in on the button with QT? And then call a raise? I just can't see it.

[/ QUOTE ]

See it all the time at Party...

WJ

[crockpot]

i think your analysis is very good. if i were the button with QJ, obviously i would have played it differently preflop, but a flop raise is practically mandatory unless you're against a guy willing to bluff his whole stack away. although, i would be doing it more to prevent my opponent from getting a free card than to make him fold a better hand. i would also probably raise less so i can fold more easily if reraised, although against a good player i would mix up my play so as not to be too transparent.

the possibility of flat calling here to see if a queen turns still intrigues me, since i believe he is well over 50% to have a queen in hand. i'd be interested to see if any no-limit experts would play it this way.

[limon]

ill have to add "total" to the shirt i wear now.

[Guy McSucker]

Guy was suggesting a different line, which would risk giving 2 free cards.


That's kind of true, but that description makes it sound awful!

Here is why the free card does not matter. The only case requiring analysis is when the opponent has a hand he thinks is good, but is not. (If he is actually ahead on the flop, he gets our money whatever; and if he is bluffing, free cards cannot hurt us.)

So, in this case, it is reasonable to expect that he will call if we raise him the remaining $70, or if we call now and set him in on the next card. (If this is wrong, the whole ploy backfires. But with $135 in the pot, you're calling most $70 bets if you think you're ahead, right?)

So, he will win all the money on those occasions when the turn and river conspire to give him the best hand. There is no difference at all between this situation and what happens if we call now and check the turn, then move in at the next available opportunity. Whether we give him free cards or not has absolutely no effect on either the outcome, the percentage of times we win the pot, or the amount that is in the pot when it gets pushed to the winner. It does seem wrong to let him suck out before we push our chips in, but, provided he was going to call anyway, it actually makes no difference.

If you can come up with a holding for the opponent which he might fold for $70 more now but which might beat us on the next card, you have a case for raising all-in now. I can't see one, to be honest.

And, just calling the flop raise has the advantage that we can escape on the turn if the queen falls, and that we might get another bet out of a bluffer. It's not hugely likely but it is possible, and it adds to our EV, which moving in here does not, as far as I can see.

Guy.

[tewall]

"If you can come up with a holding for the opponent which he might fold for $70 more now but which might beat us on the next card, you have a case for raising all-in now. I can't see one, to be honest."

Another possibility would be he would call a hand now that is behind ours, but not call after the turn even though he's still behind. That doesn't seem likely either.

[crockpot]

good analysis, but you miss one important point: if he has KJ and checks behind on the turn, he gets our money if he hits the straight but loses nothing extra if he doesn't, unless he bluffs the river. this is why i recommend betting out on the turn.

if the flop were Q83 instead of QT3 i think i would adopt your line.

[Guy McSucker]

You're right, of course, that KJ is a holding that he might take to the river for free if we let him, and then only call if he hits. I guess J9 is possible too. However, I find it quite unlikely that he has one of these, given his play so far.

I don't know many players who would limp with KJ, then just call a preflop raise, and then get all excitable when they flop a draw. If he's one of those, he's confounded me by playing his hand so strangely.

So I guess what we have to weigh up is the chance that he's bluffing now and will do so again on the turn, versus the chance that he's on KJ and misses the turn but hits on the river. If the latter is more likely, your play is better.

Guy.

[1800GAMBLER]

... folded to the button.

Which makes my only thoughts of calling or raising on the flop.

With the two broadway cards on there and he called a raise i'd raise it. Expecting to see top pair or the straight draw. QK QJ JK.

[1800GAMBLER]

'I can't believe in 33. If he's half way decent, he wouldn't play them that way before the flop. '

I would have raised them on the folded to the button, do you?

[Acesover8s]

Thanks for the comments/suggestions all. I still find it incredible that I'm making any money in this game when I read everything that you guys write about my bonehead plays.

Of course, special kudos to limon who informs me that this was a stupid question, and we should all be ashamed for playing online poker. I can't wait for his next pseudo-racist essay about playing real live! poker with hairy greek arab types.

Anyway, in the hand. I decided the only reasonable hand he could hold that beats me is QT. I could be way ahead of AQ, KQ, KJ, AT. I still have outs against the QT. So I pushed.

He had QT and got my money. Congrats, pal.

I personally think he played the hand terribly. I can't imagine open limping on the button with any hand at all, let alone QTo. He got one of only two flops that could break me. Perhaps I should have raised more preflop, but I did want action on my AA.

Now, I just wish it was a live game so I could have told if he was "more greek" and therefore bluffing.

[Guy McSucker]

I would have raised them on the folded to the button, do you?

I will raise first in here with anything I'm going to play, I think. If I win the blinds I am happy, unless I have AA or KK... but in that case I will still raise because the reverse implied odds of playing a hand I like against a random BB holding are ugly.

Guy.