Who's for a one pair river value raise?

[JTG51]

I have to give some description of UTG (my main opponent in this hand) because a one or two word label just doesn't fit him.

He'll limp with virtually any two cards. He likes to bet the flop with any pair regardless of the preflop action, and often bets with no pair if there was no raise preflop. I wouldn't call him a maniac though since I haven't seen him raise after the flop with less than 2 pair yet. I also haven't seen him check raise yet, even in situations where that clearly seemed like the best play.

A few minutes earlier he limped from EP, called a raise from his left hand opponent, bet a 952 flop, called a raise then bet the turn when the 5 paired. When the smoke cleared he showed 85 for turned trips and the winner.

So, with that description in mind, onto the hand.

He limps UTG. EP raises and I 3-bet with A /images/graemlins/club.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif. BB calls, UTG calls, and EP calls. Four of us see the flop for three bets each.

Flop: K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Checked to me and I bet. UTG and EP call.

Turn: [K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif] Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked to me and I bet. UTG calls and EP folds.

River: [K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 3 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif] 8 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

He bets. Who raises and who calls, and how close is it?

Thanks.

[Ulysses]

Against the player described, I'd just call and I don't think it's that close.

[Tyler Durden]

I agree with Ulysses. I think calling is better b/c if he's the A2C type he might have hit his kicker on the end, and you don't want to open the door to a 3-bet from a loose goose like this one. He may have also been waiting with a strong hand. I don't think it's close.

If he shows down 85 again I think you have enough reason to throw your chair at him. I don't think that's close either.

Also, if this is his last-ditch effort to win the pot and he doesn't have much of a hand at all with something like A3 or A5 he may not call if you raise. And if he has nothing at all he won't call either.

[JTG51]

If he shows down 85 again I think you have enough reason to throw your chair at him.

LOL, he didn't have 85 again. I didn't even notice that coincidence while I was typing it.

[Paul Talbot]

I cannot fathom a reason for raising. Two piar could have hit, a flush could have hit. He now bets into you unexpectedly. He's either bluffing and wont call a raise or he's got you beat.

Not too many bad players figure they'll bet out the river because they were planing on calling anyway but might get a btter hand to fold. Yo need better than a pair to raise here.

Regards,

Paul

[Depraved]

He might call you with a worse hand if AK is good - for instance I've seen this play made with a weak king... Given your description though, this doesn't seem like a bluff or some sort of play more than it does an improvement of his hand.

You have reason to believe you're beat, so trusting your instincts (and flat calling) should suffice until you have more information on the guy. And in this particular situation, your decision calculus is highly dependent on the read you have.

If you're wrong, you can always re-evaluate this guy after the hand.

[JTG51]

He's either bluffing and wont call a raise or he's got you beat.

I don't understand why you think this. If he's got any pair he's definitely, without a doubt calling a raise on the river. Do you really see players bet one pair and fold to a raise on the river often?

[JTG51]

I forgot to mention that this was a 10/20 game, not that it matters much.

Anyway, I just called. He showed Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif and I won. I'm not surprised that everyone likes calling, I'm a little surprised that no one thinks it's closer though.

At the time I thought two pair was very unlikely unless it was runner, runner style since he bet the flop so consistantly when he made a pair. That left one pair or a flush. I'm sure he would bet a flush in that spot, I suspect he'd have bet an 8 also, but I'm not sure. Sounds like I made the right play anyway.

Thanks for the comments.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I am afraid that against opponents that bad I tend to call, not raise. He very well may have hit two pair or a flush on the river. You've already described him betting when his hand improved once. You might be able to calculate some sort of value in raising him, but I bet it'd all be gone when he reraises you back. I'd call.

al

[nykenny]

i would just call, why do you even consider raise?

kenny

[CrackerZack]

I only call and I think its very close.

Will he call you with a pair of 8s if you raise? anything less than a K? or a Q? If he'll call you with any pair any kicker, I'd raise, if he'll fold crap pairs, then I'd just call. Not sure of my answer, I definitely just call.

I have to get back up to FW.

[JTG51]

why do you even consider raise?

Well, there's only 3 options, it doesn't take a whole lot of time to consider more than one of them. I think there's a very good chance I have the best hand, so not at least thinking about a raise seems like a pretty big mistake, no?

[34TheTruth34]

given your description of this player, why wouldn't you raise? You know he won't reraise you unless you're beat, in which case you can fold. He will call your raise with any pair and you figure to have the best hand (and he figures to have something, not a pure bluff). If you played this hand out 1,000 times and you raised every time, you'd be way, way ahead in the long run. I have to admit, there are not very many (actually, I can't even think of one) opponents that I would raise the river against. However, if your description of him is accurate, then a raise is in order.

Was this Foxwoods 10/20 and would I know him?? Was it Joe Tall??

[34TheTruth34]

why do you even consider raise?

you read the post right? He would consider raising because:

1. the opponent will frequently bet with any pair.
2. the opponent will call the raise with any pair.
3. the opponent will not reraise without two pair or better.
4. he figures to have the best hand.

The thing that seals it for me is the fact that JTG will never have to call a reraise. Or maybe since I saw the results, it's secretly affecting my subconscious...

[34TheTruth34]

You might be able to calculate some sort of value in raising him, but I bet it'd all be gone when he reraises you back.

No, you never have to call a reraise because JTG has said that he won't raise after the flop without two pair or better. If this guy 3-bets you, he can beat one pair.

[Vehn]

Usually when I consider raising on the river with one pair, its against an opponent so aquatic I would never feel good about laying down to a 3 bet. This specifically applies to the mid limits/full table/B&M.

[34TheTruth34]

I agree, but I was going by JTG's description of the player.

Let's say we were somehow 100% certain that this player wouldn't reraise unless he had JTG beat, then would you raise the river?

[Vehn]

I wouldn't expect to make a lot of money doing it but yeah I would likely do it then. I would likely do it here too given the information as stated in the original post.

[Gabe]

I'd just call.

[JTG51]

Was this Foxwoods 10/20 and would I know him?? Was it Joe Tall??

Yes, probably not, and no. I'd never seen him before.

[JTG51]

I have to get back up to FW.

Yes, you do. The games have been very, very good lately.

[Joe Tall]

[ QUOTE ]
Was it Joe Tall??

[/ QUOTE ]

Granted I can see how you may deduce this, but please tell me you didn't read the results when you asked this question.

EDIT: Wait a minute! I can't believe after you read the description you thought it was me. I can see the river move, but not the description!

No, it wasn't me, although I think I saw you down there on Saturday, 34. I didn't find you after you sat down, my game was a live one and the 10/20 has been great.

Peace,
JT

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
1. the opponent will frequently bet with any pair.
2. the opponent will call the raise with any pair.


[/ QUOTE ]
my understanding is that the opponent only gets really out of line on the flop with betting... am i wrong?

[ QUOTE ]
3. the opponent will not reraise without two pair or better.
4. he figures to have the best hand.


[/ QUOTE ]
is there evidence that this player is likely to bet on river on this board with just ANY pair?


Kenny

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
why do you even consider raise?

Well, there's only 3 options, it doesn't take a whole lot of time to consider more than one of them. I think there's a very good chance I have the best hand, so not at least thinking about a raise seems like a pretty big mistake, no?

[/ QUOTE ]

i didn't mean it sarcastically. i simply meant that from the developing of the board, what hand can he be betting and happily calling a raise and still lose to you with? as bad as he is, he could have a two pair or a flush. since we are pretty certain that he doesn't have any card on the flop - he'd bet out on the flop, he must have hit something after flop, right? so not looking at the result (i did now), it seems like a very routine call.

Kenny

[nykenny]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say we were somehow 100% certain that this player wouldn't reraise unless he had JTG beat, then would you raise the river?


[/ QUOTE ]

NO. how about most of the time, the bet from the bad player means you are beat?? then you should just call. EVEN IF he doesn't reraise when he has you beat and CALL EVERY time when he doesn't.

Kenny

[CrackerZack]

You're playing the 10-20 now too? I have to get up there just to watch throw some of those old rocks into a confused tizzy splashing chips around. Seriously though, congrats, your climb up the ranks has been very quick and impressive. I'm gonna try to make a trip up this weekend since my borgata question is getting no love on the B&M board. I find myself playing 10-20 regularly online now. I remember the days I started playing online saying it wasn't about making money, just using it as a learning tool, blah, blah... now I'm eyeing a 10-20 lineup, drooling and jumping in headfirst. oops.

[34TheTruth34]

my understanding is that the opponent only gets really out of line on the flop with betting... am i wrong?

you're asking the wrong person.

[34TheTruth34]

how about most of the time, the bet from the bad player means you are beat??

I was under the impression that most of the time the bet from the bad player just meant that he had a pair.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

It's still going to mean you lost two bets instead of one if you raise and he reraises. It's just a bad idea to raise this guy on the river here. You are right tho, you wouldn't be forced to call the third bet.

al

[elysium]

hi jtg
call and it isn't even close in my opinion.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
Let's say we were somehow 100% certain that this player wouldn't reraise unless he had JTG beat, then would you raise the river?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, because against this player I don't think I'll have the best hand more than 50% of the time.

Based solely on the description of this player in the prior hand, he's more likely to have spiked a second pair or backdoored a flush than have one pair here.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I was under the impression that most of the time the bet from the bad player just meant that he had a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

There's a pretty standard player profile that fits the player as described in the first hand. He bets w/ any pair until someone raises him. If raised (or someone bets in front of him), he just calls down unless his hand improves.

Against that kind of player, which this guy would appear to be based on the first hand, calling is the right play on the river.