All-In Hands are Killing Me!

[Utah]

I get killed every time I get into a big confrontation. It is getting very frustrating.

Did I play this one wrong?

1/2 pokerstars
first hand and I post in the cutoff.
I get dealt:

J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
6 limpers to BB who raises $2
Everyone calls

Flop comes:
J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked around to me and I bet $25
BB (who raised preflop) raise to $50
At this point he has $50 left and I have him coverd.
I called. Should I have folded or raised all-in?
I can't put him on AAA (given his preflop and flop action) here and a set of Js or 4s seems unlikely given I have a J and a 4. I am guessing he has A,K or A,Q with maybe a flush draw.


Turn is a blank.
He bets $25 and I set him all in.

He had AAA and kills me.

[drudman]

[ QUOTE ]
I get killed every time I get into a big confrontation. It is getting very frustrating.

Did I play this one wrong?

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes you did.

[ QUOTE ]
1/2 pokerstars
first hand and I post in the cutoff.
I get dealt:

J /images/graemlins/spade.gif 4 /images/graemlins/spade.gif
6 limpers to BB who raises $2
Everyone calls

[/ QUOTE ]

First of all, what on earth are you doing calling this bet, or any bet preflop with J4, suited or otherwise?

[ QUOTE ]
Flop comes:
J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 4 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif A /images/graemlins/heart.gif

Checked around to me and I bet $25
BB (who raised preflop) raise to $50
At this point he has $50 left and I have him coverd.
I called. Should I have folded or raised all-in?


[/ QUOTE ]

You definitely have to either fold or go all-in here. I guess if I had accidentally called preflop with that hand and was looking at this flop, I would probably go all in, but it would be wicked hard for me to do so given that it's very possible that he has me dominated.

[ QUOTE ]
I can't put him on AAA (given his preflop and flop action) here and a set of Js or 4s seems unlikely given I have a J and a 4. I am guessing he has A,K or A,Q with maybe a flush draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

Wow, I think it would seem wicked possible that he is holding AA. He raised preflop, not as much as he should have, but with that kind of flop raise... what could he really have? I seriously doubt spades unless he is a super clown. That leaves... AA AK AQ AJ JJ 44. You are dominated by all but two of those hands.

[ QUOTE ]
Turn is a blank.
He bets $25 and I set him all in.

He had AAA and kills me.


[/ QUOTE ]

All I'm saying is that the way he bets on the turn (AFTER your flop raise!) is a dead giveaway. He sees a blank (i.e. no flush card) and bets big again.

Don't call preflop raises with J4.

[Vehn]

Not a lot you can do here man.

You have an easy call preflop. Anyone who says otherwise is insane.

[1800GAMBLER]

'Yes you did.'

No you didn't.

'First of all, what on earth are you doing calling this bet, or any bet preflop with J4, suited or otherwise?'

The odds are there.

'You definitely have to either fold or go all-in here'

That's debtable. You give him a chance you fold AK AQ with that logic. (it's debtable only because someone will argue the flush draw).

' AA AK AQ AJ JJ 44. You are dominated by all but two of those hands.'

'All but two' eh? Check the combinations on those. You also should look at this in a less black and white way, he could be dominated by an AKs or AQs too.

I think anyone who doesn't lose the max. here is overcrediting the people in their game.

[C M Burns]

given the implied odds pre-flop another 2 w/ j4s is not bad. he is making a huge mistake letting that many people see the flop w AA, if he doesn't hit a set he is in trouble. his check raise could be AK or other A w/ flush draw, since your late bet could mean many things. I do think the flop is the time to go all in, b/c if you assume u have the best hand and he has Ax flush draw there are many things that can beat you, unless u hit a j or a 4 any other card will just make things more uncertain plus he is more likley to call here w/ a draw than later which should increase the ev of the bet, for whatever my opinion is worth.

[drudman]

Wow, I can't justify making that call preflop, no matter what you guys say. Trying to take a shot at flopping what? A two pair that is unlikely to be top two? Flop a flush? Flop a flush draw to the fourth nut flush potentially? Of course implied odds are always there in NL, esp. in looser games. But where is the cutoff? Do you call a raise with Txs? 9xs? Where does it stop? I'm just saying, playing hands like this where "implied odds are there" may be a concept that is overused, esp. in this type of case.

[Utah]

I think the preflop is a no-brainer. Remember that I was forced in for $2 since I was posting the first hand. On the $2 raise I am getting 11-1.

What am I hoping to flop? A miracle.

[Ignatius]

> I can't put him on AAA (given his preflop and flop action)
.
Quite the contrary. Minimum raises are often a sign of a huge hand as they only make sense if the raiser wants a call instead of taking it down right now. The fact that he min-raised for 1/2 his stack on the flop clearly indicates that he has a hand that he wants to double up on.
.
That doesn't mean that you can automatically put him on AA, but you know that your bottom twopair is in trouble after getting reraised on an ace-high flop. The minimum hand I'd put him on here is top pair with a flush draw which already is an (albait slight) favorite over J4. Other possibilities include AJ, probably with the Ad as this reduces his risk of facing a flush-draw, or a set.
.
That being said, I don't think that you can get away from the hand with 1/4 of your stack already in unless you know the player very well. It dosn't matter much if you call with the intention to move in on turn, or move in now, as both of you are pot committed, anyway.

[Utah]

AA was certainly a possibility. However, here is why I can't put him on it enough to get away from my hand:

1: after 5 limpers, he only raises it $2 meaning everyone is going to call. You normally dont want to let that many people draw cheaply at your AA, especially when you are out of position.
2: He checked the flop with 2 suit on the board and 5 other players, thus potentially giving flush draws a free shot. with 2 As in his hand it is less likely someone will bet
3: He could have been putting me on a steal, a flush draw, or an A, and thus willing to go to battle with me with a hand like A,K
4: He would possibily play a hand like A,X with a flush draw the same way.

This thinking could be wrong, but the reason I called the flop and then went all-in on the turn was because of his flush potential. If the 3 flush had come on the turn and he led at me I would have mucked.

[Jon Matthews]

playing hands like this where "implied odds are there" may be a concept that is overused

It's not a matter of implied odds here, it's a pure pot odds decision.

But where is the cutoff?

The cutoff is one off the button, coined by Bob Ciaffione I think - the idea is you can "cut off" the button by raising, making him fold and you effectively have the button in the hand from there on. (Actually are you asking this or is this just a slight ambiguity in your post? Sorry if it is.)

Personally I would make the preflop call all the time, but fold to the min flop raise some of the time. First hand in it's really hard to say but I could see myself getting attached to bottom two there without a player dependant read. And that's with Txs and 9xs as well, because here I have position.

Would anyone agree that there's a mistake in posting to play before the big blind arrives? It's obviously where this problem really came from. Utah, you say you were forced to post but you should never feel that really.


Jon

[Utah]

[Jon Matthews]

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[drudman]

Hahahahah... yeah, I know where the cutoff is, I meant where is the cutoff of suited hands you will call with preflop to a min raise after having already called the BB? 23s? (you could flop a miracle, but are you calling with it?)

/images/graemlins/smile.gif

[1800GAMBLER]

Impied odds don't even matter. In this case you are getting current pot odds to call with any suited. Go recheck your theory.

[drudman]

I understand Jay where you are coming from, I'm just saying it sounds wicked sketchy to me, even getting those odds, calling here and trying to flop a miracle with Jxs... I'm just saying that against a raise, your miracle may be a curse in disguise... as it was here. Jx is just too weak a hand. I would (personally) consider calling this with Kxs, but probably throw away Qxs and certainly Jxs, unless the x in either those hands was a 9 or better. Give me two ways to flop a miracle, I want a suited gapper if I'm going to be playing J high or Q high.

[1800GAMBLER]

You are missing the point. We aren't after a miracle, just a flush draw. We are just playing X,ys it doesn't even have to be jack high, the complete opposite, the higher the cards the more trouble we'll run into. Same as calling a min raise on the BB with suited cards but we have better position.

I don't even have low standards of calling a raise. I'd muck all high unsuited cards that aren't getting odds to play just playing them for the straight value. I'd be happier playing 78s here than KQo. I'd be happier playing 22 than 78s also in this situation.

[drudman]

We seem to agree on everything here except what we are arguing about, hah hah. I would also rather have 87s, and 22 even more, over KQo or even AJo. What I don't like is that it isn't a small pair or a suited connector we are talking about, it's jack-four suited. And I just don't think jack-four gives me enough legit ways to win.

[tdomeski]

That is why people don't play hands like J-4 suited. . .too many opportunities to get in trouble. . .It doesn't matter the price to come in b/c once you're in you might get committed and lose your stack. . .I mean with a hand like J-4 suited you are rooting for two pair. . .without an overcard. . . or a flush with only three spades on board. . .very risky to get involved with a hand like that. . .

[1800GAMBLER]

And what's wrong with playing it just for them?

[daryn]

so you play your J4s because you have pot odds.. you're looking for a miracle flop here, right? say you flop J's, .. well that's no good, you have no kicker. say you flop a flush draw, well, again it's just a draw, and it's not even a great draw. maybe it's just me but i like to have more than one way to win, and when you flop 2 pair with J's and 4's you're not in as good shape as you think, not to mention the odds of you flopping 2 pair are pretty small. , whatever. play as you will

[1800GAMBLER]

I love having more than one way to win but when you get given 14:1 odds i only have to press call with 23s and i've just made money.

You are in good shape when you flop 2 pair. Since that alone makes it unlikely anyone is leading against you and you are 7 other players in the pot who are all going to recall bets due to the pot. Hence you are make money from their -EV. Who cares if it doesn't win at the end.

'easy call preflop. Anyone who says otherwise is insane.'

[1800GAMBLER]

I would also call if the raiser turn over his cards and shown AA.

[drudman]

Man, now you're just talking crazy talk, 23s?! You have to be world class to play that hand effectively post flop. Let's say you hit and pick up a flush draw. Then it hits, and someone goes all-in. Could you even call with the worst possible flush? Obviously it depends on a lot, but that just an example of what happens when you try hitting miracles with crappy hands because "you had the odds to do it". Tight is right baby. Stay away from Jxs forever and I promise you won't see any significant decrease in your winnings.

[tewall]

(Assuming 3 flush appears on turn scenario)
On the turn there would have been about $150 in the pot after his bet, so the pot would be laying you 3 to 1 with no more bets coming. You wouldn't call here?

[drudman]

That's the problem, now you have to call with a hand that could easily be beaten, and given the all-in bet probably is. If you eliminated crappy suited hands from your game in the first place, you wouldn't be in trouble like this. A really good player can and will profit from making plays like this, but for even an average-to-good player will probably lose long run because of their inability to make reads and/or dominate post-flop play.

[tewall]

Two pair won't flop enough to be worth considering. The question is if the flush draw alone is worth calling for, in which case the call could be made with any 2 suited.

It's true that one is getting very large pot odds, but sometimes the flush will lose to a higher flush (although Jack high will also win a fair share of flush over flush draws) and other redraws, such as a full house.

My gut feeling on this play is that it is probably slightly +EV, at least in theory. Folding it might be a mistake, but a very small one, some fraction of a bet. I personally would fold it because I would be confident I could get a better situation than this.

[ML4L]

Hey David,

The word "wicked" should only be used to describe witches... /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Southern and Proud,
ML4L

PS Feel free to reply commenting on my liberal use of "y'all" in some of my posts... /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[Utah]

My thinking might be wrong, but if he pushed in his last $50 with the 3 flush hitting I am assuming I am dead. If I am not dead, the hands that would make this play against me (A,K with a flush draw) have lots of draws left to kill me.

Those two things combined would make me muck.

[tewall]

Ok. I misread something earlier. You want to be sure not give your opponent a free ride on the min-raise to bluff you out of the pot. You're only allowing him to bluff you out of a pot if the flush draw comes through. So if he has you beat, you hope the third of the suit comes, but if you're ahead you hope it doesn't.

[1800GAMBLER]

After that call if you just played solid poker afterwards without any reads you'd, well, solid players, would make a profit.

[drudman]

Was that a shot at me, baby? Hah hah, how laughable. Keep playing solid poker with 23s. I will bother you no longer.

[Kevin J]

Anyone who says otherwise is insane.

I KNEW this jacket was on backwards!

[1800GAMBLER]

You don't understand. Your hand will win more than enough in this situation to make it impossible for you to lose money on this hand unless you play awful postflop poker. So if you can't win with these odds postflop you are playing awful none solid poker and don't under odds.

You show this with, 'Keep playing solid poker with 23s..' It's a perfect example of weak-tight having certain playable hands and certain none playable hands and not being able to switch the situation.

[daryn]

dave, check out his post entitled "how to lose a bankroll". he has JJ, an A hits on the turn, and he bets the pot. the guy calls. river is a blank and he goes all in. sounds like solid play to me.

[tewall]

You're in a situation where if you play very well you might make a small profit. But if you make mistakes you could well lose money, and the risk is higher on the loss side. In other words, you can lose a lot more money by playing badly than you can make money by playing well. It's also a high variance way to play, so you'd want to have a strong backroll to play this way.

The nature of big bet poker is once you start to play a hand, you often get sucked into continuing. At each round you make the right play, and wind up losing your stack for a possibily small +EV (assuming you play well enough to realize it) with cards that would have cost nothing to throw away. Why take these large risks with small potential gain when the game offers you much larger potential gains at much smaller risk?

[1800GAMBLER]

You typed that in a pretty biased why eh? I pot betted the flop then continued pot betting - just not include the fact he called a potsized flop bet? I don't know but i think i'm more likely to be called from a made/drawing flop hand than a single ace.

[1800GAMBLER]

I don't think their is a huge overlaying variance on this play at all. Suited drawing hands 7 way aren't just small winners. If anything i'd argue the other side a player with the ability to click fold after playing a hand will have small loses and large wins on these hands.

Othernote:

Like i said, if the player turned over AA in this situation i'd still call because of the pot odds + implied odds. The pot odds aren't far away and the bet size compared to stack size here is huge also.

With 72o for the stakes of simplicity say i hit trips or 2 pair 1 in 30 times. 29 times i lose X a blind. 1 time i win 15x. Now all i have to do is put in 1 pot sized bet on the flop here and it's a small profit. More likely is the case, his whole stack off 50x is going in only to see the 1 in 9 times he'll hit his ace ([2 7 x] x x) xs being places he could hit his ace.

[daryn]

well.. i wasn't trying to make a misguided post, that's why i actually REFERRED HIM TO CHECK THE POST OUT HIMSELF.

[1800GAMBLER]

Heh. Your details of the hand were still biased starting on the turn and skipping preflop and flop.

[daryn]

whatever chief!

[tewall]

According to http://www.pokerroom.com/games/evstats/positionStats.php?players=10
J4 suited loses money 7 handed.

I realise this is a different type of game (not NL), and the results show what the players at that site make, so the stats can be taken with a grain of salt. However, I think it's very likely that the hand is at best a small winner, and that's only if it is played well.

Going back to the 72 hand example. A decent pct of the time you'll lose big pots even when you hit your hand, so that has to be taken into consideration.

[1800GAMBLER]

Those stats don't take into account the fact we have just posted to play and are getting double the amount on our call. It's rare that people post to play, go 7 way with this hand. All we have to do is min. bet on the flop get more than 2 callers and WAYHEY profit.

Dynasty also perfectly realised that the majority of players are losing (on that records) - none twoplustwo - players that are playing these hands, surely, every reader is better than the average player.

Next: The stats are based on the amount of players in the game. Not seeing the flop, i'm _sure_ you knew that before posting this.

Lastly: A percentage of the time you'll run into a set, trips, two pair, an aggressive player, a bluff. ETC.

[tewall]

I didn't get the lastly part.

Here's what I think:
1) J4s can make a small profit in the given situation if well played
2) J4s can lose a lot if poorly played.
3) It has more losing potential than winning potential
4) There are much better opportunities than this

I've noticed from your posting that you like to play aggresively. I prefer that style of play too, and have noticed in my own experience that I, speaking personally, do better by staying away from hands like 72o regardless of the circumstances. Well, I can't say regardless because I might play it shorthanded if I thought the circumstances were right as a bluff, but as a drawing hand I've not had luck with this sort of thing. Regardless of how great the pre-flop odds are, the type of thing that seems to happen is when you get action with it, on a flop of say 77x, the other guy will have 67, 87, or A7 or if you flop two pair you've got bottom 2 pair, and that's not so great either.

[daryn]

i think it boils down to this. sometimes you might have to give up on a small +EV situation, if it might lead you into a huge -EV situation later in the hand

[1800GAMBLER]

That's were we disagree. 15:1 odds on a suited card isn't small profit in my opinion and i really can't see how this is a hard hand to play.

The preflop raise is also gold for you since it will encourage a lot of players to hold onto their hands on the flop. Min bet the flop with a flush draw would be a goldmine.

[tewall]

I agree that in this particular situation (having already posted) the flush possibilities make the hand +EV, but will one be able to avoid getting trapped? Look what happened to the original poster. This is the sort of thing that kills the profit of this hand.

[tewall]

It's sort of a variation of the idea to not play hands that are either small favorites or large underdogs.

[1800GAMBLER]

What happened was a hugely rare flop. If you play these for just 2 pair you are _rarely_ going to see that other ace there. Meanwhile you will bust the AA.