How much do I bet on the river? 5-5 NLHE

[Ulysses]

5-5 NLHE. I have everyone covered. The other guys in this hand have $1000-1200.

3 limpers for $10 each.

I'm in BB w/ TT. I feel like raising, so I make it $40. Everyone calls.

Flop is Q84 w/ two of some suit. I check. Checked around.

Turn is an offsuit 2. I'm pretty sure I have the best hand. I bet $150. One calling station (who earlier called my 50 JJ open-raise w/ A9s [he had $220 total] then called my $150 pot bet on the Q94 flop, catching a 9 on the turn) calls.

I think I'm most likely still ahead. I plan to check the river until I see an offsuit 10. I put him squarely on either an 8 or Queen-crap.

He makes terrible calls w/ weak made hands and big draws, but doesn't make terrible calls w/ gutshots. He doesn't have J9 unless he has exactly J9s w/ the flush draw on the flop. I'll happily take that chance and go all-in w/ him. He's capable of laying down a medium-strength hand to a big bet.

$450 or so in the pot. He has $800 left. How much do I bet?

[Ulysses]

OK, I bet $250. How does that feel?

[Greg (FossilMan)]

If you check, how likely is it that he bets for you? And if he bets, how much is that likely to be? If there's a good chance he will bet, then check.

If the bet seems like the best play, I like the bet you chose, $250. It's small enough and big enough, and doesn't look suspicious (unless you typically bet a lot more in a spot like this).

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
If you check, how likely is it that he bets for you? And if he bets, how much is that likely to be? If there's a good chance he will bet, then check.

[/ QUOTE ]

He's pretty passive. If he has what I think he has (8 or weak Queen), he'll check behind. The only hand I can imagine him having that he might check the flop with and bet the river is exactly QT, which is obviously unlikely.

[jen]

I don't like the $40 raise. It's too small to give yourself a chance to win outright pre-flop or act as an effective isolation raise. Alternatively, if you want to play to flop a set multi-way, then you want to get in as cheaply as possible. The $40 falls somewhere right in-between.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't like the $40 raise. It's too small to give yourself a chance to win outright pre-flop or act as an effective isolation raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I expect everyone to call this raise.

[ QUOTE ]
Alternatively, if you want to play to flop a set multi-way, then you want to get in as cheaply as possible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Cheap's relative, right?

Let's say I'm playing to flop a set. Am I more likely to get someone's whole stack when there's $40 in the pot pre-flop or $160?

Let's say I'm planning to bet a rag flop. Am I more likely to take it down limping in and betting the $40 pot or raising and betting $200 on the flop?

There were many reasons I wanted to raise pre-flop against this lineup. Winning outright or isolating were not among them. Mainly, I'm trying to win a lot of money.

[The Gift Of Gab]

I have to agree with Jen on this one. Only against the most passive sheep imaginable would I want to play a big pot out of position with TT. Much of the time an overcard will appear and you'll be in the unenviable spot of handing a large field a free card or making a bet that will likely be called only if you're beaten.

There's nothing wrong with raising, but with a middle pair I want to raise an amount that will thin the field down (maybe to just the livest one) or win it right there. I usually raise around 150% of the pot from the blinds. Charge them to play a big pot with position on you.

As for your actual question I would have bet 300, but maybe I'm just greedy.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I have to agree with Jen on this one. Only against the most passive sheep imaginable would I want to play a big pot out of position with TT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Manny, Sam (Manny's aggressive friend), and Freddy were all out already at this point. They were the only three I cared about. Calling station old-man, Rounders-guy, and one other passive sheep were in. I didn't mind putting $30 more into the pot w/ them in this spot.

[ QUOTE ]
Much of the time an overcard will appear and you'll be in the unenviable spot of handing a large field a free card or making a bet that will likely be called only if you're beaten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, you called this one right. An overcard did appear and I did have to hand out what should have been a costly free card. But I'll contend that the way the hand played out illustrates why I don't think it was a terrible play against this field.

[ QUOTE ]
thin the field down (maybe to just the livest one) or win it right there. I usually raise around 150% of the pot from the blinds.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, maybe I was getting too greedy. I knew you were getting moved over soon, though, so I had to make some money fast. /images/graemlins/grin.gif

[ QUOTE ]
As for your actual question I would have bet 300, but maybe I'm just greedy.

[/ QUOTE ]

I knew he had some kind of hand when he called my turn bet. And I could easily have a flush draw or AK at that point. I narrowed my choices to 250-350 or all-in on the river.

What do you think of all-in? If he has J9, it doesn't matter, since I'll call an all-in raise from him anyway. But maybe I get called sometimes by someone with not that much who feels the check, slightly less than pot, 2x pot betting pattern is fishy? I wasn't sure if he would think enough to think that I might have missed everything when I bet all-in. Maybe I'm just being results-oriented....

[jen]

"I expect everyone to call this raise."

Fundamentally, I just disagree with this. Ts play the worst against three or four players out of position. You want to win outright, play heads-up or play multi-way for cheap. If you think that everyone's going to call your raise, then you should either limp or raise more.

" Let's say I'm playing to flop a set. Am I more likely to get someone's whole stack when there's $40 in the pot pre-flop or $160? Let's say I'm planning to bet a rag flop. Am I more likely to take it down limping in and betting the $40 pot or raising and betting $200 on the flop?"

That's the beauty of NL vs pot-limit. In NL, you don't have to manipulate the pre-flop pot size in order to bet more on later streets.

[Vehn]

I wouldn't have raised preflop I don't think. I don't think it matters much. I despise raising a bunch here though as it ties you to the pot if called, etc etc. What happens if you raise the pot or overbet the pot by $25 or so and everyone falls in love with their KQo and A7s and calls? Now you're really screwed in a big pot with a typical flop (1 overcard).

I would have bet the flop for sure against 3 limpers and gone with my read after this if called. Why did you "have" to check here? When you check even mildly passive opponents will bet their 8 and then what?

On the river with some blank (like a 3) I would have bet around $100 and expect to get paid off by worse hands and not raised by better ones (weak Q). I wouldn't check though.

When I hit the set on the river I bet $200ish and pray for a call.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't have raised preflop I don't think. I don't think it matters much.

[/ QUOTE ]

For those who don't like the raise, let's just say I did it for "game theory" or "meta-game" reasons. That's all I have to say on that issue. /images/graemlins/grin.gif


[ QUOTE ]
Why did you "have" to check here? When you check even mildly passive opponents will bet their 8 and then what?

[/ QUOTE ]

Did I say I had to check in one of my posts? I don't think I did, but if so, I didn't mean it. A quick glance around made me think that one of the guys might have something here. I felt like I would get a better read from a bet than a call and then I'd go from there.

[ QUOTE ]
On the river with some blank (like a 3) I would have bet around $100 and expect to get paid off by worse hands and not raised by better ones (weak Q). I wouldn't check though.

[/ QUOTE ]

That's probably a better plan, though I did know that this guy would not bet a weak Queen if I checked. But I like the $100ish bet.

[ QUOTE ]
When I hit the set on the river I bet $200ish and pray for a call.

[/ QUOTE ]

Do you consider going all-in for the reasons I stated in one of my responses?

[Vehn]

[ QUOTE ]
Did I say I had to check in one of my posts? I don't think I did, but if so, I didn't mean it.

[/ QUOTE ]

You said "An overcard did appear and I did have to hand out what should have been a costly free card.". I don't have the opportunity to play live NL and I'm a much better live player than internet player but as a "default" I bet the pot on the flop here against 3 limpers and go from there.



The main reason I bet the river on a blank is that when this dude lets it get checked around on the flop and then calls your turn bet he is most likely thinking "I can beat AK". For that reason I think moving in on the river is OK if you think your body langauge/current table image etc can "sell" your AK. But a river bet of $100-$200ish is a helluva lot easier to sell. However the "small stack defeatism" may set in and he could say screw it and call with his 8 or pocket 6s or god knows what since he's only got $450 left.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
You said "An overcard did appear and I did have to hand out what should have been a costly free card.". I don't have the opportunity to play live NL and I'm a much better live player than internet player but as a "default" I bet the pot on the flop here against 3 limpers and go from there.

[/ QUOTE ]

I didn't exactly mean "have to" there. I meant something close to that, but not quite. For a number of reasons, I felt checking would be better right there against this field. Again, chalk it up to "game theory meta-game considerations." /images/graemlins/cool.gif Potting it on the flop is a very reasonable default play.

[ QUOTE ]
However the "small stack defeatism" may set in and he could say screw it and call with his 8 or pocket 6s or god knows what since he's only got $450 left.

[/ QUOTE ]

It would have to be a good sell, as he had $800 left (the pot was $450ish).

[Ignatius]

Given that the effective stack here is $1200, it would be a huge error not to bet here esp. when you know that you will be called by all opponents. It's a lot easier to get 2 pot-sized bets in after the flop if you hit your set than 3. In the former case, you can often double up against toppair, in the latter, your opponent will usually need twopair or better or a huge draw to pay you off, which is about an order of magnitude less likely.
.
Given that you get a medium pair only once in about 30 deals and that you're 1:7 against flopping a set with it, this opportunity to double up will only happen once or twice a session, so you better make sure to get the most out of it.

[Ulysses]

I bet $250. He instantly said "I call" and flipped over POCKET DEUCES!!!

If he's trapping me on the turn, where's the river raise? Aarrrgghhhh!!! If only I had known!

So, yeah, my read was pretty much 100% right re: where I stood on the flop. And pretty much 100% off re: where I stood on the turn! Sucking out rules.

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
That's the beauty of NL vs pot-limit. In NL, you don't have to manipulate the pre-flop pot size in order to bet more on later streets.

[/ QUOTE ]

Huh? Of course I can bet whatever I want. But pot-size has a large impact on whether or not (and by what) those bets get called.

[Vehn]

Nevermind I can't read. NH sir.

[J.A.Sucker]

I'm only gonna comment about your river play. Against calling stations, then make them call a good sized bet. I think you can expect a call for 350 here.