KK in the big blind - facing a big raise

[cruiser]

Playing 1/2 NL online.
Dealt KK in the big blind. 2 callers to guy in mid/late position who makes it 30. Folded to me.

Question 1 -
1. fold
2. call
3. raise

(relevant stack sizes : me about 150, him about 250).

Ok - for the sake of discussion. I called. My thought process was (a) i was hoping to get at least one of the limpers to come along if I got a favorable flop and (b) i would make any move on the flop if I hit something.

I put him on a JJ - AA or maybe as low as AK, AQ.

Flop :
Q - 6 - 2 (2 diamonds).

Question 2:
check or bet - and if you check - how to handle his bet?

my course of action to follow.....

[cruiser]

I thought the flop was somewhat favorable (basically no Ace). I had decided if the flop had no huge draws and no Ace - I would play on agressively (mistake #1?).

I checked the flop - He bet 20 into a pot of about 70. I figured he would bet regardless of the flop. If he had AK, AQ,10-10, or JJ - I was way ahead. If he had QQ or AA i was hurting.

I didn't think I could fold, but wasn't sure about calling or raising. In hindsight I think I misplayed it.

I raised all-in after his bet of 20. I figured calling or raising the min to 40 was basically committing me to the pot - and I was content in taking the pot right then and there if possible.

anyway, i went all-in, he called.

Turn: J
River : x

He turned over AA and I lost a big pot.

In gerneral I'm having trouble figuring out if this is just one of those hands you're destined to go broke on, or if there was a course of action to at least minimize my losses...

[crockpot]

i do not believe calling should even be an option here pre-flop. if any ace flops, you will probably have to fold what might very well be the best hand. if your opponent doesn't have a pair (unlikely, but possible) he is quite unlikely to make a hand good enough to pay you off but not beat you. and if you have him beat, you want to make him pay for the chance to outdraw you. if the flop comes with a jack or queen (maybe even a ten), how will you know whether he has made his set or not? playing this hand correctly on the flop is going to be difficult on a large percentage of the flops.

i believe this is simple math. the blinds and callers are pretty much irrelevant to your stack sizes. push in if you think the chances of him having aces are less than 50%, fold otherwise. players who will make it 30 to go preflop and then fold to a reraise are very rare (although he may fold a hand like AJ, AQ, or AK; and this result is better than letting him have three free cards to catch an ace.)

as to how you're supposed to figure these odds out, this is why you need to get as good a read on your opponents as you can. if this is the first time i've seen him make a big pre-flop raise (or if he's turned over aces or kings every other time i've seen it), i would be quite inclined to fold.

[ML4L]

Hey cruiser,

Crocksucker's post is a perfect explanation of why this is a clear raise/fold preflop.

The only point about which my opinion differs is the action that I would take. Even though there is a chance that he has AA, I would reraise all-in. I see enough players make this type of raise with hands other than AA that, until I have evidence to the contrary, my "default" play is to go all-in.

ML4L

[cruiser]

Yeah...I felt the whole time I wasn't exactly sure how I should be playing it....If I had the best hand, like I said, I hoped to get paid off by the original raiser and maybe even a limper. Re-raising all in pre-flop would surely at best get me heads up with the raiser. Probably folding hands like AK, AQ and maybe even JJ, QQ.

Thanks for the help. I guess this one one of the times I was destined to lose - but I don't think I can put all preflop raisers on AA. I would def say less than 50% would have AA, so a re-raise preflop is prob the best course. Of course there is always the fold option since i'm out of position and could be behind...I'm just not sure that is good EV or not....

thanks again guys.

[1800GAMBLER]

How much does the money mean to you? If you have 10+ buy ins push all in.

If you are going to be annoyed about rebuying and the money means a lot just fold.

[togilvie]

I feel like I'm missing something or there was a typo.

You were playing 1-2 no limit, two limpers, and he made it 30 to-go??!! There was $7 in the pot.

In the games I play in, when someone overbets the pot so dramatically, he's either an idiot or he has bullets. It's that simple. Crocksucker's analysis is a good one if the preflop bet had been closer to a standard raise, but this is massively over-betting the pot.

I would have folded without a second thought and thanked god that my opponent was so obvious as to telegraph his aces.

[limon]

due to the stack sizes I believe the only raise is all in and this raise puts your opponent in a position where he cannot make a mistake. if he has aces he calls you. any other hand he throws away (do players really call a $120 raise here with QQ or AK? definately not with AQ or JJ). i call here and check raise all in a flop with no ace now any overpair is sure to call and get busted these are the same hands that could have gotten away preflop, now they're stuck. If an ace comes i bet out moderate and fold to a raise. if i'm in against AA i get busted no matter what but if im in with a lesser hand i win more playing this way.

[tewall]

It's only true that the opponent is spared from making a mistake (assuming he will fold hands such as QQ and worse) if the poster never bluffs. Assuming the opponent will raise 30 pre-flop with AA-JJ and AK, then bluffing will be close to break even if the opponent will call with AA and KK. If the opponent will also fold KK, or will also raise all-in with some other hands, then bluffing will be very profitable.

If your assumption that the opponent will fold hands worse than KK is correct, then a good strategy would be to re-raise with AA and some other hands as a bluff, and play KK as you have outlined.

If the opponent plays in such a way that bluffing will not be profitable, then re-raising KK will certainly be +EV.

[crockpot]

this is why i said that i would fold here unless i had seen this guy make this kind of bet without aces in the past. though i don't play much no-limit online, when i see a huge overbet like this my first instinct is always to put the guy on aces. against loose players of course, i will actually make a raise this size myself to prevent them from getting correct implied odds to call with small pairs and the like.

there are people on party who will make these kind of bets on AK, QQ, JJ, so you have to know who they are. and the type of player who raises to $30 pre-flop on these hands does not pause to consider "am i beat?" before calling an all-in reraise.

this is why i object to limon's criticism. i agree that a good player, faced with that reraise, folds anything but aces. i do not agree that anyone who will make a raise this out of line with QQ, JJ, or AK is going to fold it. people make big raises because they want to generate big pots, so why would he fold when he achieves his goal?

also, if the raise had been a standard raise, say $10, it is important to note that you should definitely not push all-in preflop, unless the opponent is quite loose. here there is just not enough money in the pot to take any significant chance that he has aces.

[limon]

i've been playin big bet for a long time, you have to think much more dynamically if you are going to succeed in this game. an all in re-raise pre flop bluff is NEVER a good idea. If you're in a game where you need to make plays like this to survive your game selection is sooo bad you will go broke VERY quick. so taking that out of the question, noticing there is no way the limpers can call even $30 to take a flop with the stack sizes in question my play is still the best. i dunno nuthin' bout no ev but i've made this play for years and it works. i hate to even give such good advice to on line stiffs.

[crockpot]

if you are facing an opponent who will throw away anything but aces, as you say, then you must concede that an all-in semi-bluff can be profitable here if he will make the initial raise with a variety of hands. you cannot have it both ways. pick a position and stick with it.

[kelvin474]

how is it dynamic thinking to not even consider that raise limon?

also, EV is kinda incontrovertible- if a play actually has +EV, then it's a good play, unless you can think of something with an even higher +EV.

[NLfool]

Ok so the buyin is $100 max you've had time to build it to $150 you should have some pertinent info about this player. Now in real life the chances of AA vs KK is roughly 1 in ~620 give or take. I've played way more than 620 live hands and have had KK and run into AA once. Online I've seen KK vs. AA four times in less than 3 hours. I didn't play more than 500 hands as I was trying to clear my bonus and was roughly at 350 raked hands when I finished my session. Being as it may I'd call the flop and bet like $20 telling or shouting out to him I've got a piece of the flop. If he is overbetting preflop he will overbet post flop also so you can't catch trips to the top pair you're representing or your supposed kicker. If he overbets you're done. You can save you money for better situations.

[limon]

listen...theres lots of ways, times and place to get all of your money in. an all in pre flop semi bluff ISNT ONE OF THEM. why do i bother to educate you people. yes i have done it before, but not for some simplistic, nerdy, "ev" purposes. its because i thought my hand might be good and because i had to make a statement. i make some very weird plays my first night in a new home game. this is not the case mentioned. in the case mentioned MY PLAY OF CALLING AND CHECK RAISING IS BEST. this may be hard to imagine because it is not math oriented but put yourself in the position of the original raiser you make it $30 to go with AK, AQs, 10's-AA. What would you like a guy with kings to do behind you in all these cases RAISE ALL IN. with your AA you break him with everything else you get away cheap. a crafty player who will call behind you and trap is much more dangerous. lesson over.

[Moonsugar]

that sums it up right there

[crockpot]

here is how i view this situation, holding almost any hand that does not contain an ace:

- my opponent will fold any hand but aces here, according to you.
- if he calls with aces, i have a 20% chance of outdrawing him anyway.

so i'm risking $150 to win about $40 in the pot now. my opponent folds 44 of the 50 hands in your example immediately, and with the other 6 he calls and i will lose about $90 on average. if you are not willing to take a 12 percent risk of losing $90 in EV to win $40 immediately the other 88 percent of the time, then you are winning a lot less than you could be.

if you want to argue this point with me further, go right ahead. perhaps if you won't make this play it is because you expect people to call with hands other than aces, but this contradicts the logic of your post about the KK hand.

[NLfool]

I don't disagree with you but this is online. I'm not going to get into the rigged etc argument I just know what I see and have in my stats and that is if I raise large with KK and a sensible player goes over the top I'm staring at AA a fair amount of time. Well I don't want to reraise another $30 to find out where I stand because I'm committed then. Live play and online play are vastly different in my opinion. I've run into this type of situation many times and call the flop bet and betting the flop 1/3 of the pot will give you all the info you need. Like I said if he overbets preflop he's gonna overbet the flop also. all situational, depends on player, flop, how you play post flop etc. It's only $150 anyways it's not like it's for tens of thousands of dollars. Going all in preflop and not thinking about it further isn't a mistake but playing ONLINE I know there is a better approach with KK. Trust me I've pushed allin many times when I first started online only to see the bullets.

[limon]

i've never played on line. i've never played to win 88% of a $40 pot with kings. i plot to break players in these situations. i guess im just old fashioned. players who will put $30 into a $6 pot (or $3000 into a $600) are begging to get broke. If I go all in before the flop i'm gonna (generally) win a small pot or lose a big one. if i call and check raise i'm gonna win a big pot or lose a big pot. i've given myself a chance to break my opponent, he's gained nothing. one of the strengths of a "live" poker players is informed decisions. pushing all in pre flop is the play of a scared computer geek.

[crockpot]

i don't believe any of us are talking about having KK in the hole when we discuss making this play as a bluff. maybe you misunderstood that. if so we have nothing to argue about. i don't consider this all in with KK a bluff, because i know tons of players online that will call with less than kings in this situation. (especially on party) the only question is whether he would have made it $30 without aces to begin with.

[tewall]

What if the guy will re-raise all in with KK or 22? In this case you (having raised 30 with AK, AQs, AA-TT) will be making a big mistake against the 90% of the time you're folding against 22.

I like your play with KK by the way. I was just taking issue with the statement that raising all-in with KK allows the opponent to not make a mistake. This statement is only true if he won't play other hands the same way.

[ML4L]

Hey limon,

If you wouldn't mind, could you reconcile some things that you've said...?

1) Others have already pointed this out, but can you explain why an all-in bluff is not a good idea against a player who makes big raises with many hands, but folds everything except AA to a re-raise?

2) For your check-raise plan to work, your opponent must bet the flop. How can you be certain that he won't take a free card, and if he does, what is your plan after he checks the flop?

3) How does the fact that many of the posters here are online players affect the situation in any way?

4) How can a properly constructed mathematical analysis ever not yield the appropriate play (i.e. why do you feel that you are above the laws of math and probability)?

Answering some or all of the above might help we ignorant folks see your point better...

ML4L

[limon]

1) Others have already pointed this out, but can you explain why an all-in bluff is not a good idea against a player who makes big raises with many hands, but folds everything except AA to a re-raise?

I've never met a player like the one you describe. when you have KK your not bluffing. i was describing what to do in a specific situation, not what to do in all situations. for example: if the money was much deeper i would definately re-raise w/my KK.

2) For your check-raise plan to work, your opponent must bet the flop. How can you be certain that he won't take a free card, and if he does, what is your plan after he checks the flop?

A guy who puts 30 into a 6 pot is going to bet the flop. if he doesn't i'll put him on AK and just keep checking it to him then make a bet on the river if no ace comes.

3) How does the fact that many of the posters here are online players affect the situation in any way?

i think it effects it alot. on line players seem to be very linear thinkers. they are not forced to read players so they dont develop a feel for the game.

4) How can a properly constructed mathematical analysis ever not yield the appropriate play (i.e. why do you feel that you are above the laws of math and probability)?

there are many errr...+ev plays which aren't worth the risk. in every game i frequent there are bad players who will get their money in as huge underdogs (guys who put 30 into 6 pots fit this description). i wont do these players the service of getting all my money in with them as a small favorite or possibly an underdog. it's the opportunity cost. in big bet poker if you're playing for small stakes maybe you push every edge but if the stakes are big and you do this your swings will be tremendous. i've lasted many years collecting golden eggs when they come but not trying to kill every goose.

Answering some or all of the above might help we ignorant folks see your point better...

[Copernicus]

"4) How can a properly constructed mathematical analysis ever not yield the appropriate play (i.e. why do you feel that you are above the laws of math and probability)?"

The answer is pretty obvious...it will always yield the appropriate play IF it is properly constructed. The problem is properly constructing it and computing it in your head in the time you have to make an action. A properly constructed model that takes into account the distribution of the hands he is likely to raise to 30 with, some of which need to be weighted by percentages of the time he raises to 30 with them, taking into account the probability that he calls or folds to your all in reraise, taking into account the probability that he checks or bets after a smooth call, taking into account the probability of beating him with whatever hands you put him on, etc etc etc...it simply cannot be constructed properly. The alternatives are approximations or experience. I for one will go with limon's experience (especially since I came up with the same answer with far less experience).

I will disagree with Limon's take that "computer geeks are linear thinkers" however. A large majority of online players are new to the game, and on average dont have experience and feel for the game that B&M players currently have. However, those B&M player were newbies once also, and their thinking was similarly linear when they started out...you have no choice, since it is your only knowledge.