Take My Winnings to Victoria's Secret? (NLHE)

[ML4L]

Hey all,

1/2 Paradise. I have around $260, my primary opponent is the only one who has me covered... A little about him: he is loose-aggressive and capable of bluffing, but definitely not a maniac.

Anyway, he raises to $8 UTG (he would do this with a wide range of hands), next player calls, and then I'm next to act with A /images/graemlins/heart.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif. I reraise to $40, all fold back to UTG, who thinks for a bit and calls, as does the coldcaller. 3 to the flop, $120 in the pot. The flop comes:

J /images/graemlins/spade.gif7 /images/graemlins/spade.gif5 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG thinks for about 15 seconds before going all-in. EP folds, now it's on me (I have about $225 left). Call or fold?

ML4L

[Trefo]

What could he have........trips......flush draw....or AJ....I call. According to his table image he could very well be bluffing but most likely he's trying to win the hand right there. CAll is the play. If he does get trips you still have a two outs left.

[Zag]

I'm still trying to figure out your title. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

This depends as much on how you play, or at least on how he perceives that you play. Preflop, raising to $35 would have been a pot-sized bet, so you have overbet the pot a little. Would you do this with anything less than aces? Are you someone who can lay down your aces? Does he know it?

You say that he would make the $8 bet UTG with a wide range of hands, but you don't say how wide. If it is only AA-JJ and AKs, then you could easily be in trouble. After all, with AA or KK he probably would have reraised preflop, leaving only QQ, JJ, and AKs, leaving you way ahead, way behind, and a little ahead, respectively.

If, on the other hand, he could have made the preflop raise (and call) with hands all the way down to AJs, then I would call his all in on the flop.

[ML4L]

Hey all,

When I say that this player could have a wide range of hands here, I mean a WIDE range of hands (any two suited, any ace, unsuited gappers, etc.)...

ML4L

[Robk]

I'd happily call.

[Greg (FossilMan)]

Unless I know something about this player that tells me he very likely flopped a set, I call without hesitation. Also, there is nobody I know very well whom I wouldn't call here. AJ, even TJ, are MUCH more likely than JJ or another set for almost all players. QQ and even KK are another big possibility. Some players will flat-call the reraise preflop with these hands and see that no A hits the flop before committing the rest of their chips.

Later, Greg Raymer (FossilMan)

[ML4L]

Hey all,

Thanks for the responses. My title alludes to the fact that I thought for a good while and then folded, because I'm a little girl... EP then showed Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif6 /images/graemlins/spade.gif as he took the pot.

I thought that this hand was similar in some ways to my AK post from earlier this week (which, incidentally, was met with under-whelming response /images/graemlins/tongue.gif). One part of my game that I'm really trying to work on is when I should and should not get all my money in with an overpair (or AK when I flop TP,TK). Apparently, many of you feel as though this is one of those situations where I should...

My thinking was that was that he almost certainly had one of two hands: a flush draw or a set (with a slight chance of TT/QQ/KK). So, I was either a 3-2 favorite or an 11-1 dog. Given the size of the bet in relation to the size of the pot, I thought that a fold was reasonable. Later, I wrote out an EV formula with three variables: u, d, and s (the probabilities of him having an underpair, draw, and set). With u=0.1, d=0.45, and s=0.45, my fold was -$2.50 in EV, which made me feel a little better. My only question now is whether I overestimated the probability of him having a set...

Anyway, additional responses addressing the general issue of getting your money in on the flop with an overpair are welcome (in addition to critiques of my thought process). Thanks again.

ML4L

[hbk]

I honestly don't know many players who could make this fold , unless you know your opponent VERY well. Without wanting to be critical, if I was you I would seriously consider not playing NL cash if you are going to always think the worst possible scenario when someone makes a move on you, because you are going to be bluffed out of too many scarey boards.

[crockpot]

what kind of little girls do you know that spend their money at victoria's secret?

i sense some pedophilia going on here... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

[ramjam]

Dear ML4L

I think you have outthought yourself too quickly into a monsters-under-the-bed paralysis.

1) The principles of your EV calculation are fine - but the parameters seem way skewed. You start of with the assertion that this guy is loose aggressive and will raise with pretty much any two cards. But then proceed to the conclusion that it's 45% likely that (i) he had a pocket pair and (ii) he hit a set on the flop. One pair or nothing seem just as likely. Take the chance of a set down to 10 or 20%, bump up one pair to 20%, factor in a little for stone cold bluff, allocate the balance to flush draw (see 2 below) and I would guess your EV for calling looks a lot healthier.

2) Try to analyse the situation from his perspective. His style is consistently aggressive. If he believes there is a good chance you will lay down a strong hand under pressure, betting the max on a semi-bluff flush draw looks very attractive. There's $120 in the pot to steal. If he bets your stack size of $225 into it and gets called, he can count on roughly 1/3 equity in a pot of $570 = $190. Effectively he's risking an EV of -$35 if he's called to win $120 if you fold. If he thinks you'll fold just one time in four, he'll be making a profit on the play. When he bets out I would be much more inclined to believe he's on a flush draw than a stronger made hand.

[Robk]

Hi ML4L, I think there are a few problems with your analysis.

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking was that was that he almost certainly had one of two hands: a flush draw or a set (with a slight chance of TT/QQ/KK)

[/ QUOTE ]

You are giving your opponent too much credit for hands which are either beating you or drawing extremely live against your hand. Given your description of this opponent, I would think he could certainly have a wider range of hands including at least top pair. And you neglect the chance he is on an outright bluff. There are 9 possible ways for him to have a set. And 12 possible ways for him to have KK/QQ. 12 more possibilities for him to have AJ. And about 12 reasonable flush draw hands. Based on this range of hands you're only a dog 20% of the time. (And even in that situation you will suck out almost 10% of the time.) 80+% of the time you will be a big favorite. Without doing the math I'm pretty sure folding is a big mistake. (And given he called your raise with Q6s I suspect his range of hands is in fact much larger.)

[ QUOTE ]
One part of my game that I'm really trying to work on is when I should and should not get all my money in with an overpair (or AK when I flop TP,TK). Apparently, many of you feel as though this is one of those situations where I should...


[/ QUOTE ]

You seem to be aware that overplaying an overpair can be a big mistake. But you're not considering the size of the pot. When the money is deep sticking to your overpair can be a big error. But here you have a situation where the pot is already more than 50% of your stack. When it gets this large before the flop, only the scariest of flops (or opponents) should get an overpair out of your hands.

[Robk]

Of course you having two aces cuts the ways for him to have AJ in half. But I don't think it changes the analysis much, as I just picked one kicker as an example.

[Al_Capone_Junior]

I think you very much over-estimated the chance of his having a set when you folded. This was one of those situations where I would have called, and if he had a set, well then he'll just have to win my $$. If he did have a flush draw you'd be a favorite by more than enough to justify calling the bet, and have a nicely positive EV. I didn't need to check your math tho to realize you overestimated the chance of a flush draw. The way he played it also led me to think draw rather than big hand. Had he flopped a set, he'da probably tried to suck you in rather than shut you out.

al

[ML4L]

Hey all,

Thanks for the responses; I needed a good tongue-lashing after the way that I played that hand... /images/graemlins/wink.gif

In retrospect, I do agree that I probably overestimated the probability of his having a set, and thus should have called. But, knowing the player and how he sees me, I still think that there is virtually NO chance of a pure bluff or of a hand such as AJ. But, given that y'all don't know the player as well as I do, I think that it would be reasonable for y'all to consider both of those possibilities...

Generally, it's not like me to fear the nuts for no reason, but his betting pattern just really threw me on this one. But, reading everyone's responses, I think that I'll sack it up more often, even when I'm confused. In a similar hand yesterday, I got all my money in on the flop, and the opponent (not the same guy as this post, but a player with a similar style...) again showed a flush draw (which he hit, but those are the breaks...).

Anyway, thanks again (and if anyone here is a PLO player, I need to be yelled at for my AAxx post too... /images/graemlins/smile.gif).

ML4L

[MrGo]

If this is true, then what is there to ponder? It's an easy call.

[ML4L]

Hey Mr. Go,

IMHO, I think the fact that a player plays incredibly loose PRE-flop makes it a tougher call, becase hands such as J7, 75, etc. become possibilities (although, as I said in one of my other posts, I put him specifically on a set or flush draw). Thanks for your thoughts, though.

ML4L

[Zag]

I was reminded of this hand yesterday when I similarly made a bad laydown.

Playing PLHE in the $50 buy-in game on Party last night, 4 handed, I pick up QQ. UTG limps and I raise. Only UTG calls. UTG and I are beating up on the other two players, and I haven't seen him make any mistakes. He is loose preflop but tough, tight, and aggressive postflop -- about right for this game. I assume he thinks the same of me, but I have appeared extra tight preflop only because I have been getting no cards till now.

Flop is J 9 3 rainbow. UTG checks so I raise pot, he calls. I figure he could have a monster, a draw, or just top pair and is testing to see if I am bluffing.

Turn is a 7 completing the rainbow. He checks. I note that, of the hands I put him on, this could have turned a draw into a straight. I check behind.

River was something uninteresting. He bets the pot. After a long time thinking and reviewing, I lay down my queens, regretting that I checked the turn. If I had bet, say, half the pot, then I would have learned something.

He showed his hand, KJs for top pair. Fit me up with a big, pink hair ribbon as well.