MUCKING AA PREFLOP???!!!

[GuyOnTilt]

I can't believe it! I actually did it!

This post is not a joke. This actually did take place tonight.

Playing my usual loose/passive 6/12 game live earlier tonight. UTG is a good player, MP1 is a very good player, and MP2 is a pretty solid player as well. I've been at the table for maybe 20 minutes and am on my A-game so far when I get dealt A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/club.gif in the CO. UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, EP cold-calls, MP1 cold-calls, MP2 caps, LMP calls!!! I sit there shaking my head and smiling as I muck my hand. As my cards are still spinning in the air I tell the table, "I'd better see some quality hands shown down on this one."

Am I nuts?!!! Feel free to rip me a new one, but beware! I am prepared to defend myself!

[JTG51]

This is a horrendously bad fold. At least you can say you made the worst possible play in hold'em.

[onegymrat]

Excuse me, Mr. Guy, if you're not going to play those two cards, mind if I give it a go?

[Ulysses]

[ QUOTE ]
I've been at the table for maybe 20 minutes and am on my A-game so far

[/ QUOTE ]

It'll be tough to beat the game if you can only keep up your A-game for 20 minutes. Especially if you jump straight to your Z-game.

[NRS]

Dude, no offense, but there's no way you should ever do that. Ever.

[JTG51]

Especially if you jump straight to your Z-game.

Yeah, no kidding. Playing Zee's game is good, playing your Z-game is bad.

[Max Weinberg]

[ QUOTE ]
I can't believe it! I actually did it!


[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't sound so proud of that if I were you.

[GuyOnTilt]

Alright, here's what was going through my mind:

At first, I was happy to see the early raising and reraising, but then as everybody kept raising and coldcalling, I started to think...

#1) This pot is going to be absolutely HUGE and multi-way to the extreme!!! This leads to two things. First, nobody's folding the flop and most people aren't folding the turn, as there's going to be drawing odds to virtually all hands on the flop. Second, my hand is not going to win unimproved against this many opponents, and definitely not with this many opponents seeing the river card.

#2) Since there's so many people raising and cold-calling, I'm going to consider my outs to a set dead. This is even more true with the solid players raising and cold-calling.

#3) Therefore, I'm likely drawing to a one-card straight or one-card flush to take this pot.

So I fold.

[slider77]

Wow, I knew "guys on tilts" made dumb plays, but I thought it was playing stuff they no way should play - not the opposite.

Turn in your poker chips buddy.

[NRS]

[ QUOTE ]
#2) Since there's so many people raising and cold-calling, I'm going to consider my outs to a set dead. This is even more true with the solid players raising and cold-calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay, but its not just the aces are going to be eaten up: Ks and Qs are going to be in short supply, too. The way that you win this pot is if something completely innocuous comes on the board, and that's more likely than you'd think given the preflop action.

You've at least got to see the flop. If it comes up K /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif, and you're bet into, that's when you fold.

[onegymrat]

[ QUOTE ]

You've at least got to see the flop. If it comes up K /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif 9 /images/graemlins/club.gif, and you're bet into, that's when you fold.



[/ QUOTE ]

I think you used the wrong suit for this example.

[Max Weinberg]

I just threw some good hands into twodimes to show you how terrible this fold was. I put a few premium hands and some nice drawing hands (except for 78s, random capped mania factor) together and killed all your ace outs for kicks. Here are the results:

A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif wins 42.99% of the time.
Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif wins 7.21%.
A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif wins 7.39%.
A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif wins 1.33%.
K /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif wins 9.89%.
J /images/graemlins/club.gif J /images/graemlins/heart.gif wins 8.82%.
7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif the ace-killer wins 20.06%.

If anything you should start laughing like a schoolgirl when you see the pot capped to you with wired aces. You were worried that your set outs were gone, but they all were probably holding each other's cards. A bunch of solid players raising and reraising probably means the broadway portion of the deck is seriously crippled, which is better for you, live aces or not.

Hell, just look at the stats at your aces holding up unimproved. And by putting just one ace back in the deck your chances of winning go up to 50.32%.

[sam h]

The only way this is justified is if you somehow know for sure that another player has AA. Otherwise, this is just terrible. AA will win a sizeable amount of time unimproved here, your opponents are probably holding each others' outs, and you have the second best position.

With AA, you want as many other players in for as many bets as possible.

[GuyOnTilt]

Okay, I was curious, so I plugged some hands into twodimes as well. My results came up drastically differently than yours. I was actually not the favorite to win the hand in my simulation.

[GuyOnTilt]

I disagree.

[NRS]

[ QUOTE ]

I think you used the wrong suit for this example.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, I did. I should have just said KJ9 suited, but then I wouldn't have gotten to use the cool graemlins.

Point being, this is a silly fold. AA is arguably stronger with that much preflop action.

[slavic]

I wish I still had this hand history but it was a Tourney game so pokertracker wouldn't keep it at the time.

During paradise's WSOP trip give away the sit and go games just got nutty. It was great.

I'm in a $10 sit and go (yes I had no bankroll) I'm in the BB on the first hand and get AA. Of course I'm praying one of these yahoos goes all in so I can double up quick and steel the blinds for promotional binus points.

Well 5 people in front of me go all in. Err well that's not exactly what I wanted and for a glimmer of a second I thought about mucking. After all I'm not the favorite to win, but you are being offered to win the tourney on 1 hand and you have AA. Long story short I call, other hands are AK, AQ, KK, 22, KQ. An Easy $50.

[JTG51]

The only way this is justified is if you somehow know for sure that another player has AA.

If one of the other players showed you the other AA, folding would still likely be a significant mistake.

[trillig]

Wrong, at least see the flop....

I got AA once today, got called by 88 ALL-IN and then pokerstars lagged and I saw all 5 cards for about 2 secs and the money dragged to him.

He had 8c and 4 hit board, the river was Ace of clubs just to piss me off...

-t

[Dynasty]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I was curious, so I plugged some hands into twodimes as well. My results came up drastically differently than yours. I was actually not the favorite to win the hand in my simulation.

[/ QUOTE ]

Please post those simulation results.

[jacksup44]

I was wondering if you have ever heard of the poker term "the nuts", because thats what you folded preflop. Bravo

[kiddo]

[ QUOTE ]
A bunch of solid players raising and reraising probably means the broadway portion of the deck is seriously crippled, which is better for you, live aces or not.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
And by putting just one ace back in the deck your chances of winning go up to 50.32%.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this concepts are important to think about. If many players call many bets preflop there is a big chance that most of the high cards already are in play.

Look for example at this (from twodimes):

You got Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
Player 1: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif

You win 56%
Player 1 wins 43%

--------------------
Yo got Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
Player 1: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 2: A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

You win 65%
Player 1 win: 2%
Player 2 win: 1%
Player 1 and 2 tie: 32%

------

Yo got Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
Player 1: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 2: A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Player 3: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif

You win: 77%
Player 1: 2%
Player 2: 1%
Player 3: 1%
Player 1,2,3 tie: 19%

-------------------

Yo got Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/club.gif
Player 1: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 2: A /images/graemlins/club.gif K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Player 3: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif K /images/graemlins/club.gif
Player 4: A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/spade.gif

You win: 93%
Player 1: 1%
Player 2: 1%
Player 3: 1%
Player 4: 1%
Player 1,2,3,4 tie: 3%

------------------------

In this last case you must be very happy that there will be a lot of action preflop.

That is: If you are in the lead preflop with a big pair a lot of action is often good, not bad. Many players paying a lot of bets preflop means they are destroying the odds of each others drawing hands.

I think this is also something to think about if you are in the blind and there is a lot action and you are sitting with a lower drawing hand. Yes its lower, but you are alone with it.

[rigoletto]

You can keep deceiving yourself if you want to. The fact is that AA is the absolute best hand in a multiway pot (in any pot for that matter). AA is a 30% favorite in a 10 handed pot (even if everybody goes to showdown), so you have an overlay of 20% in the most multiway situation. With less players in your odds only increases.

The fact that you mucked it indicates that even when playing your A-game, you don't have confidence in your own postflop skills. It also makes me wonder if your A-game isn't weak/tight in general!

[rigoletto]

And one more thing: You act behind solid players giving a lot of action which indicates hands like KK-JJ, AK, AQs, all hands that are badly dominated by AA, but still likely to give you action with any piece of the flop!

[kiddo]

You got: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 1: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 2: A /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Player 3: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif

You win: 39%
Player 1: 35%
Player 2: 15%
Player 3: 7%

In this case 76o is favourite over AK, AQ and KQ.
But only if you are possessed by a fish and take your 76o to showdown /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
This post is not a joke. This actually did take place tonight.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't believe you. You surely cannot think this is the right play.

[Jim Easton]

[ QUOTE ]
At first, I was happy to see the early raising and reraising,

[/ QUOTE ]

You should be.

[ QUOTE ]
I started to think...

[/ QUOTE ]

This seems to be your first problem.

[ QUOTE ]
This pot is going to be absolutely HUGE and multi-way to the extreme!!!

[/ QUOTE ]

Yes, which means you don't have to win it as often to show a nice profit.

[ QUOTE ]
Since there's so many people raising and cold-calling, I'm going to consider my outs to a set dead. This is even more true with the solid players raising and cold-calling.

[/ QUOTE ]

What about their outs? What could be better than taking AA against AK, AQ, KK and a QQ?

[ QUOTE ]
So I fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

If this story is true, it is the worst preflop fold I've ever seen.

[Joe Tall]

Very funny post! I love a good joke once in a while.

[JoeU]

This might be a bad play, but if the flop is K /images/graemlins/club.gifQ /images/graemlins/club.gif9 /images/graemlins/club.gif and you hold the A /images/graemlins/club.gif, wouldn't you be drawing to the nut flush? Do you immediately give anyone credit for J /images/graemlins/club.gifT /images/graemlins/club.gif on a capped pot?

Folding aces in this spot is nuts. At worst, you have a disguised powerhouse because it is capped to you. All KK, QQ, JJ hands are drawing to probably 2 outs, also, they could be holding AKs, which is another hand many people raise with.

You have the best hand, go to war with it!

Joe

[CrackerZack]

Tommy did it for some Zen buddhist poker thing. What is your excuse? This is horrendous if it is not a joke. See my signature. JA Sucker says it perfectly.

[JTrout]

How many of you would fold AKo in this situation? Is it justified?


"Playing my usual loose/passive 6/12 game live earlier tonight. UTG is a good player, MP1 is a very good player, and MP2 is a pretty solid player as well. I've been at the table for maybe 20 minutes and am on my A-game so far when I get dealt A A in the CO. UTG raises, UTG+1 3-bets, EP cold-calls, MP1 cold-calls, MP2 caps, LMP calls!!! I sit there shaking my head and smiling as I muck my hand. As my cards are still spinning in the air I tell the table, "I'd better see some quality hands shown down on this one."

[Robk]

Here are those simulation results you wanted:

Ac Kh -- 0.050
As Qh -- 0.045
Js Jc -- 0.008
Jh Th -- 0.080
Jd 9d -- 0.098
9h 8h -- 0.063
7c 7d -- 0.204
6s 6d -- 0.170
5d 5h -- 0.139
4d 3d -- 0.051
2d 2h -- 0.090
Ad Ah -- 0.000

[ElSapo]

If I recall correctly, Tommy also did it against a single opponent (or perhaps two). Which, while still a bizarre, interesting, self-notedly poor, oddly-Zen, strangely-conceived and oddly-executed plan, was a bit different.

The idea of taking AA in a capped pot against a slew of opponents holding each others cards, each drawing to perhaps two outs, well... Not the same at all.

But that's what you said.

[NRS]

[ QUOTE ]
You got: 7 /images/graemlins/club.gif 6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 1: A /images/graemlins/diamond.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif
Player 2: A /images/graemlins/club.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
Player 3: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif

You win: 39%
Player 1: 35%
Player 2: 15%
Player 3: 7%

In this case 76o is favourite over AK, AQ and KQ.
But only if you are possessed by a fish and take your 76o to showdown /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

Actually, I wonder about this sort of thing all the time. Say I'm sitting in the BB and have something like 7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif, and the preflop action is capped before it gets to me.

Conventional wisdom would suggest that I muck this hand, but the other players are likely to have many of their outs used up, whereas all mine are protected. If I'm not 4/5 of the way to a draw on the flop, then I can muck, but since most players are hesitant to fold hands that they've raised preflop, there could be a huge payoff if I hit something.

Even given a slightly less favorable example like this, where a couple of my outs are used up, my EV is positive *and* I arguably have the easist hand to play postflop:

A /images/graemlins/spade.gif A /images/graemlins/club.gif 38.3%
A /images/graemlins/heart.gif K /images/graemlins/heart.gif 10.1%
Q /images/graemlins/spade.gif Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 16.4%
J /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 14.5%
7 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 20.3%

[DrSavage]

same can be said against any of the other players' hands.
You DO have the best hand preflop.You WILL win more than any other player entering the pot. Calling will earn you money in a long run. You might not win this exact flop but if you do it will be huge. Folding is not an option here.

[CrackerZack]

If the description of players is right, I'd muck AKo in this spot.

[slider77]

On a side note, I wanted to know about poker simulation software. I heard "twodimes" mentioned here. Is that a good one? Are there others out there also?

[JasonM]

[rigoletto]

If the lineup is tight tough players I (hope I) would muck!

[devinthedude]

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=76624

cards %win

As Ac 46.97
Ah Kh 10.14
Ks Kc 0.00
Qs Qc 18.77
Ad Kd 5.87
Jd Td 7.14
Js Jc 8.24

Worst fold I have ever seen. Enough said, there is no disucssion needed. If this story is in fact true.

[Homer]

You are nuts.

[DarkKnight]

This is not the worst possible play in Holdem -
folding AA for 1 bet is much worse!

[Aces McGee]

Actually, I'm not sure it is. The twodimes simulations that people have run and have posted seem to suggest that it's more ridiculous to muck AA in a capped pot preflop because your opponents are probably holding each other's outs. Not that you'd want to muck it for one bet, either, but the statistical analyses presented here seem to suggest that if there's ever a time to do it (I personally don't think there is one), it'd be for one bet, when the hands you're up against have many more outs.

Aces McGee

[Aces McGee]

Have results been posted for this hand yet?

Am I the only one thinking that the poster lost this hand, and is waiting to hit us with the results to justify the fold?

Aces McGee

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Have results been posted for this hand yet?

Am I the only one thinking that the poster lost this hand, and is waiting to hit us with the results to justify the fold?

Aces McGee

[/ QUOTE ]

If he posts the results to justify the fold he will be further ridiculed.

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I'm not sure it is. The twodimes simulations that people have run and have posted seem to suggest that it's more ridiculous to muck AA in a capped pot preflop because your opponents are probably holding each other's outs. Not that you'd want to muck it for one bet, either, but the statistical analyses presented here seem to suggest that if there's ever a time to do it (I personally don't think there is one), it'd be for one bet, when the hands you're up against have many more outs.


[/ QUOTE ]

The point you make is very good. With so much pre flop action you can probably be reasonably sure that at least one possibly both of the other aces are not in other peoples hands. But it also means that the other players in the hand have little or no chance of improving either. With the possibility/likelihood of KK, AK, AQ and QQ all out there you will win easily your share without ever improving.

[devinthedude]

Results from twodimes

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=76624

cards %win

As Ac 46.97
Ah Kh 10.14
Ks Kc 0.00
Qs Qc 18.77
Ad Kd 5.87
Jd Td 7.14
Js Jc 8.24

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

"Nuts" does not even begin to describe....and BTW, you now are no longer allowed to complain when you raise preflop with AA and everybody folds.

As someone once said, the only time you muck AA preflop is if they're suited (and don't forget to ask for a deck change).

[slider77]

I don't get these simulation results...

You assumed other top 10% hands and simulated starting from the first 2 cards right?

So how does QQ win so much and KK doesn't win at all?

[Tosh]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't get these simulation results...

You assumed other top 10% hands and simulated starting from the first 2 cards right?

So how does QQ win so much and KK doesn't win at all?

[/ QUOTE ]

In the example he uses KK cannot win unimproved because AA is out so it must improve. 3 ways of doing that, straight, flush and set.

It cannot win with a straight because all 4 aces are in others hands so if the board comes 9TJQx it'd lose to the AK.

It cannot win with a flush because the person with the ace of that suit would win.

It cannot win with a set because the 2 kings are in other players hands.

Incredibly KK is drawing dead before the flop. QQ on the other hand can improve to a set and win because the queens are live.

This simulation shows that a KK hand here could be mucked but AA definitely should not be.

[Max Weinberg]

All the aces and kings are burned in the other players hands, while the queens are all still live. The kings are drawing dead, because even if a four-flush hits he's beaten by the ace. If by some miracle a straight hits, if it's even possible (I'm too lazy to look if it's even possible with the hole cards out there), AK will chew him out.

[Aces McGee]

in his setup, KK can't win because it can't improve and is already behind. The other two kings are in hands holding Big Slick, two people are holding pocket jacks (eliminating any possible straight), and the ace of each of suit is out, so kings only has the second-best flush if it comes. QQ can at least improve with the third queen.

Aces McGee

[Tosh]

Sorry Aces and Max you were too slow.

Btw KK can make a straight because one player has JJ and the other JTs. It just loses to AK.

[slider77]

Yep, you're right. That is very interesting. KK, a hand that alone dominates QQ - is now dominated given the initial conditions of this hand.

Like I said - very interesting.

[Aces McGee]

My mistake. I misread it. You're right of course.

Aces McGee

[Nottom]

OK so you weren't a favorite ... I'm gonna go out on a limb and say you were still better off than most everybody else.

[angry young man]

[angry young man]

I can only assume this whole thing is a joke. If it's not you need to examine Clarkmeister's post a while back about things low limit players need to unlearn. This is awful play and very bad reasoning.

[angry young man]

I've never in my life played in a poker game where folding AKo would be appropriate here. If I were to find myself in such a game I'd shriek and run away from the table with whatever money I had left.

[docidiot]

Here are a few situations where AA is the underdog...

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=76793

http://twodimes.net/h/?z=76805

the first situation is almost an extreme where you have virtually no outs, other than winning 12 handed unimproved.

the second is somewhat more realistic and even then you are only a slight dog to the aces killer 7d6d.

that being said, these are very specific situations (not even very realistic) and the fold was clearly horrendous.

[slider77]

It was his A game.........


just not his AA game........



Sorry to keep ripping on the original poster here....he's taking quite a beating.

[devinthedude]

I agree, when I first ran it, I thought it was a mistake, but when I thought about it for a second, it all made since, interesting sim though.

[eh923]

...if the title of the post was "MUCKING 72o PREFLOP".

[slavic]

I've chopped with aces once. The other guy had 73o and wasn't going to call anyway. He tossed me a check.

Now if I were going to muck Aces in a neo Zen Budist kind of way I think it only happens online at UB .1/.2 tables and with only 1 player in the game.

I'm in the SB and muck to the BB, err well maybe not if I have money already in. How about folded all the way to the Button and I let them go, ahh yea better. Errr well maybe playing at home versus my grandma and it would bust her out and send her home crying....nope not then either.

I have to admit it I'm just weak.

[slavic]

Your not that bad off
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> http://twodimes.net/h/?z=76869
pokenum -h 7c 2d - as ks - ac qd - kd kc - ad ah
Holdem Hi: 850668 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
7c 2d 104203 12.25 743880 87.45 2585 0.30 0.123
As Ks 104624 12.30 737310 86.67 8734 1.03 0.126
Ac Qd 40465 4.76 801469 94.22 8734 1.03 0.051
Kc Kd 85104 10.00 762979 89.69 2585 0.30 0.101
Ad Ah 507538 59.66 334396 39.31 8734 1.03 0.600
</pre><hr />

[sam h]

"If one of the other players showed you the other AA, folding would still likely be a significant mistake."

I don't think so. You're playing for half the pot unless a four flush comes. Lots of other types of hands will have more equity than you. Only if all the other hands hold each others' outs could this be advantageous.

[MrDannimal]

You're playing for half the pot in which 3 or 4 other people are behind you. They capped pre-flop (and you don't know what they have, so it's more likely to be each other's outs then a random sampling), so you're getting half of 12-16 SBs as it stands on your 4 SB investment. I'll take that, thanks.