Who is favotite ?

[MrTeilhof]

I just won a 50$ sit & go at pokerstars. But the 2nd finisher claimed he was favorite in the last hand. Here is the hand, ty /images/graemlins/wink.gif

PokerStars Game #94761347: Tournament #237793, Hold'em No Limit - Level
VI (100/200) - 2003/08/13 - 15:27:36 (EST)
Table '237793 1' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: Jut1000 (8180 in chips)
Seat 6: MrNuts (5320 in chips)
Jut1000: posts small blind 100
MrNuts: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Jut1000 [5h Ac]
Jut1000: raises 7980 to 8180 and is all-in
MrNuts: calls 5120 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [6h 5d 4h]
*** TURN *** [6h 5d 4h] [7c]
*** RIVER *** [6h 5d 4h 7c] [6s]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
MrNuts: shows [Kd Jh] (a pair of Sixes)
Jut1000: shows [5h Ac] (two pair, Sixes and Fives)
Jut1000 collected 10640 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 10640 | Rake 0
Board [6h 5d 4h 7c 6s]
Seat 1: Jut1000 (button) (small blind) showed [5h Ac] and won (10640)
with two pair, Sixes and Fives
Seat 6: MrNuts (big blind) showed [Kd Jh] and lost with a pair of Sixes

[pudley4]

From two dimes (http://www.twodimes.net)

preflop:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
pokenum -h ac 5h - kd jh
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 5h 978884 57.17 725633 42.38 7787 0.45 0.574
Kd Jh 725633 42.38 978884 57.17 7787 0.45 0.426
</pre><hr />
after the flop:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
pokenum -h ac 5h - kd jh -- 6h 5d 4h
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing 5d 6h 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 5h 700 70.71 245 24.75 45 4.55 0.730
Kd Jh 245 24.75 700 70.71 45 4.55 0.270
</pre><hr />
after the turn:
<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>
pokenum -h ac 5h - kd jh -- 6h 5d 4h 7c
Holdem Hi: 44 enumerated boards containing 7c 5d 6h 4h
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 5h 30 68.18 6 13.64 8 18.18 0.773
Kd Jh 6 13.64 30 68.18 8 18.18 0.227
</pre><hr />
I think he was smokin' some elysium-crack /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Wake up CALL]

Perhaps this will help:

<font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre>

pokenum -h ac 5h - kd jh
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Ac 5h 978884 57.17 725633 42.38 7787 0.45 0.574
Kd Jh 725633 42.38 978884 57.17 7787 0.45 0.426

</pre><hr />

At no time during the hand was he ever the favorite.

[MrTeilhof]

[carlosblack]

The problem here is fairly common, people don't know how to adjust when the number of players changes. Heads up is a completelly different game from 10 person hold em. Against many people A5o is a dog against a higher ace, where kj has a chance of winning much more often.

[gdaily]

Hi,

As previous posters has said, you are about 57 % favorite.

As a thumb of rule, two cards between your opponents card (as in his KJ vs your A5) is a 40-60 dog. If your opponent has two overcards it is about 30-70 dog. Give or take a couple %, that will differ with straight and flushpossibilities. And you dont play poker to be 2% more on the right side, all that matters is to be on the 60% side...

One way to roughly calculate the above percentages is as follows. You are both about 50% to hitting a pair (or better) with your each hand.

First AK vs JT:
AK hit, JT miss = AK win (25%)
AK hit, JT hit = AK win (25%)
AK miss, JT miss = AK win (25%)
AK miss, JT hit = JT win (25%)
Here, AK is a 75% favourite. Simplified, yes, but accurate "enough"

Then A5 vs KJ (as in your example)
A5 hit, KJ miss (A5 win) (25%)
A5 hit A, KJ hit (A5 win) (12,5%)
A5 hit 5, KJ hit (KJ win) (12,5%)
A5 miss, KJ miss (A5 win) (25%)
A5 miss, KJ hit (KJ win) (25%)
So this gives that A5 is 62,5% favourite.

Then one look at the texture of the two hands. KJ has more straight possibilities than A5, as well as JT has more than AK. That makes the percentages go a bit up for the dog hands, say 3%.
But more important, KJ has good straight possibillities if the Ace hits, as well has JT if an King or Ace hits. Give the dog a couple of more percerntage-units. Now we are about 70-30 and 58-42...

Last, look at the flushes. In your example, both Kd and JH was "live", i.e the ace is in another colour. Add one percentage or two.

Hope this makes sense..

Regards
Ola