Single Big Bet - Highest Winning %.

[RocketManJames]

A friend is going to Vegas. He wants to put down a single big bet ($250) if he is ahead at least that much by the end of his trip. He KNOWS this is a -EV play, but frankly, he thinks it would be exciting.

What is the best game to place this single big bet. He would be equally happy to win $250 as he would $375. So, he probably would not want to play BJ. EV-wise, BJ might be better than other games, but the extra EV gained is from getting blackjack or doubling down at opportune times. He wants to win at least even money with the highest percentage of time. Assume, for example, that he would prefer a negative EV game that would get him even money 51% of the time vs. a +EV game that would get him $1000 35% and $500 10% and lose 55%.

What game has the highest "at least even money" win percentage?

Please, no comments on the stupidity of making such a bet... it's his money after all.

Thanks everyone,
RMJ

[Wake up CALL]

Tell him to bet the don't pass line on a craps table. This is not (necessarily) a one roll bet so it may take a little time to see his end result. If he wants guaranteed instant gratification find a craps table with the field payout where 12 (boxcars) pays triple and 2 (snake eyes) pays at least double (a very few tables have both 12 and 2 paying triple). Both these bets are better than red/black on a roulette wheel even if you found a European wheel with just a single zero.


Just as an added note, there will be no table game in Vegas where he has a positive edge like you described.

[RocketManJames]

Perhaps I wasn't too clear on my description of what I'm looking for... and yes, you're right. I meant to say 49% not 51% (but too much time had passed for me to edit).

It is true that a field bet (with 3:1 pay for double 6's) gives better EV than a Red/Black bet in Roulette. But, if you have a field bet, you will win 44.44% of the time. If you have a Red/Black bet, you will win 47.37% of the time. So, even though the field bet might provide better EV, in this case, my friend would prefer the Red/Black bet. The reason is that he is EQUALLY happy with winning his bet as he is with winning twice his bet.

So, rolling snake eyes on the field bet would give him $500, but he's just as happy with $250. Remember, he's going to make this single bet only... forget about EV. What is the bet that he should make of all the casino games and bets that gives him the highest percentage of winning at least his $250?

Is it the pass line bet, no pass bet, red/black roulette bet? I am guessing that it's not blackjack due to the higher percentage of losing being evened out a bit by 3:2 payout on BJ and double down/split opportunities.

Thanks for your answer... maybe what you've said is correct, and he should go for the pass line bet.

Anyone else care to take a stab?

-RMJ

[Wake up CALL]

He should bet Don't Pass not the Pass Line bet. Although the edge is small comparing the two he substantially increases his likelihood of winning {after the initial roll) beyond 50/50. Since winning more money makes no difference to your friend he should like this aspect of the Don't Pass bet.


Edited Below:

Now that I have given it more thought a single bet on the Banker in Baccarat is the best bet. Again because your friend disregards the 5% juice taken by the house if you win.

[Mano]

If he's just in it for the excitement, maybe the sports book. Bet on a game, and then you can root for a team and have a couple of hours of "excitement".

[irchans]

He could bet the favorite to show in a horse race. There are many races where this bet would have over a 50% chance to win.

[Wake up CALL]

"The reason is that he is EQUALLY happy with winning his bet as he is with winning twice his bet."

I have a question regarding your above statement. At what point would he not be EQUALLY happy? ie: Bet $250 to win $100? Bet $250 to win $10? Bet $250 to win $1?

This is relevant since Irchans suggested horse racing. If you include sports bets then I might suggest betting the money line on a 14 point or higher favorite on an NFL game or a prohibitive favorite baseball team rather than betting on a horse that cannot explain to you why it lost. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[RocketManJames]

I don't know exactly what he'd be happy with, but if a win would yield "close" to the size of the bet, he'd be just as happy. Like, say 95% of the bet. A bet of $200 giving him a win of $190 with 50% would be appealing, I'm sure. But he certainly (I think?) would be unhappy with a bet of $250 netting him a $100 profit with 75% even though it's +EV.

Good ideas using the sports book/race track. I hadn't even considered that.

RMJ

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't know exactly what he'd be happy with, but if a win would yield "close" to the size of the bet, he'd be just as happy. Like, say 95% of the bet. A bet of $200 giving him a win of $190 with 50% would be appealing, I'm sure. But he certainly (I think?) would be unhappy with a bet of $250 netting him a $100 profit with 75% even though it's +EV.

Good ideas using the sports book/race track. I hadn't even considered that.

RMJ

[/ QUOTE ]

In that case I am confused as to his thought process. It seems that if winning twice his bet for a small additional risk is not appealing then winning half his bet for much less risk would be attractive. At any rate from your last response I revert back to my suggestion of betting on the banker in bacarrat. His edge is approximately 52% and he will collect 95% of his bet.