"Advantage Craps System"

[Batman]

I saw the website of Jerry Patterson, casinogamblingedge.com
Jerry Patterson used to be a well-respected blackjack expert, but then he started selling a bizzare blackjack system called Target. Mason Malmuth rated his books a 1 (out of a possible 10).

He now claims to have a winning craps system, called PARR.
It supposedly teaches you how to spin dice to lower the probability that a 7 will be thrown, so you would seven-out less often.
It sounds like it might work, and he says Steve Forte helped develop this system. But it sounds strange, and I'd reckon that someone who loves and sells TARGET wouldn't be very likely to have an excellent craps system.

Has anyone ever bought and used his craps system?
And would you recommend it?

[Al Mirpuri]

Casino managers have a saying:

All players go broke, but system players go broke systematically.

You really should know better.

Manipulating the dice is most likely impossible, and even if possible, illegal. They don't even let Blackjack players count cards, and counting cards is a mental activity, never mind physical manipulation of the dice.

The standard deviation inherent in all games of chance could make someone a winner over the short term or even the long term. It is like winning the lottery and carrying on buying tickets. Are you that man, possessing so much luck that you are going to beat the house. Answer: no.

There really are no winning craps players only liars.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

If indeed you *could* throw the dice in such a way to lower the probability of a 7 appearing (and I doubt it could be done with fair dice), then there's still one hurdle to overcome.

Since the system would only work while you held the dice, your betting pattern would become obvious to the Box Man almost immediately and fairly soon you wouldn't be welcome in any casino..

[Terry]

GROOOAAAN

Apparently some people are as stupid as these guys think they are. The really bad news is that Steve Forte is a pretty smart guy, and if he's going to start selling scam systems he's likely to do pretty well at it.

ARRRRGGGGG

[CrackerZack]

Steve Forte?

I know someone named Steve Forte. He's a bit of a microsoft disciple/speaker/etc...

Same guy?

[tpir90036]

the only possible way to influence the dice is to slide them across the table.....which is illegal.

and even if you could manipulate the dice the way they say you can....once they hit the corrugated back wall or someone elses chips it would all go out the window.

full-on b.s.

they also claim that there are other people who shoot in a rhythm who don't even know they do so you can bet safely on them as well. whatever...

[Zele]

I'm not sure if this dice rolling skill is possible to develop, but if you could, you might be able to extract an edge with a flat bet, regardless of who is shooting.

Assume you're at a table with 11 other players. You bet each one to pass for one unit, giving up 1.4% edge for a total of -.15 units EV. Then you bet yourself for one unit, and your dice rolling skill earns you a 50% edge. So you earn +.50 units. Therefore, each round of the table you net .35 units EV.

Again, I don't think this is really possible, although there is one surefire way to beat craps. It's in the literature. (HINT: Doesn't work in Vegas.)

[Al Mirpuri]

Scarne On Dice has a chapter on cheating with dice. It is possible to manipulate dice to bring up certain numbers. However, the rules usually work against this: dice must be thrown from a cup, bounce over a certain line, etc. This is what I meant in my original reply that it is not possible to manipulate the dice. It is possible as a physical act. However, the casinos will not give you the conditions in which you can pull it off.

I was really shocked by the original post that started this whole thread. That was why my response was a little more forceful than it would usually be.

[Terry]

No, not the Microsoft guy. Skilled BJ player, wrote the book "Read the Dealer", now a "gaming consultant."

[Wake up CALL]

Batman I will sell you a system where I guarantee you wil never go broke. If somehow you do lose your stake I will reimburse you 100% as long as you followed my systems simple 2 step instructions explicitly.

[Ed Miller]

What's so suspicious to a pit boss about betting more on yourself?

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

They watch everything. When you significantly increase your bet, he's more likely to take notice of how you're manipuilating the dice. If the boxman is doing his job, his eyes should never leave your hand once you pick up the dice, anyway.

From my experience (and I don't spend a whole lot of time at the craps table), the bets people push when they're on a roll with the dice in their hand are the proposition bets. If you were really using this "system." You would either increase your pass/come bets and max your free odds.

Variance like this would catch their eye and I doubt it would take long for them to decide to review tapes to see what you were doing with the dice.

That all being said, I can't imagine how you could possibly manipulate fair dice to reduce the probability of rolling a 7.

[Nottom]

I was watching one of those Vegas shows on the Travel Channel or wherever where they talked about different ways people tried to cheat casinos. One of the ways was to spin dice to reduce/increase the chance of hitting something. Apparenty there are a few people out there that were very good at it so I suppose even with some of the ways for stopping it an edge could possibly be gained. That said, the casinos are well aware of these sort of tactics and I'm sure they would catch on pretty quickly.

[Copernicus]

There are numerous ways to throw dice in a manner that enhances the probability of them favoring certain numbers, including sliding, skipping, bouncing and "gumming" or "sticking". The craps requirements of both hitting the table AND the backboard eliminates most of that ability, but I am sure there are some who have the skills to improve their odds beyond random.

Even out of a cup a skillful manipulator can enhance the probability of one of the die giving him a needed number (eg. a 2 to hit). There was an incredibly "lucky" backgammon player who tore up a big chouette at the Mayflower back in the early 70s who was caught using what he called a "delay" throw out of a cup. Using either a finger or small piece of metal inserted in the cup he was able to rotate one die around an axis, eliminating 2 numbers.

I would not call any of these a "system" and they are definitely illegal.

[Terry]

While spinning or sliding a die is probably illegal it is not prosecutable; they won’t bother to try because there is no way to convince a jury “beyond a reasonable doubt.”

Should you try this, however, you will not get to do it for very long... and when you try going to another casino you may just find that your picture has been faxed all over town through SIN (Surveillance Information Network), making you persona non grata all over town.

[Batman]

This is a nice thread. It looks like there's several votes against the PARR craps system. I think it is another one of Jerry Patterson's bozo systems, just like TARGET.

Can Mason Malmuth give us his professional opinion about this craps system?

[Nottom]

I'm sure it would be something along the lines of ... any "system" that someone claims to have for a negative expectation game is bogus.

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm sure it would be something along the lines of ... any "system" that someone claims to have for a negative expectation game is bogus.

[/ QUOTE ]

I bet Mason would endorse Mike Caro's roulette system.

[Inquisitor]

It is strange that Frank Scoblete and Steve Forte are helping to sell this system.

I thought Steve Forte was supposed to be highly intelligent.
He developed some security training videotapes.
And he wrote Read the Dealer.

[Inquisitor]

Mason would probably say this system is bizzare.

[Wake up CALL]

[ QUOTE ]
Mason would probably say this system is bizzare.

[/ QUOTE ]

Bizarre perhaps but negative EV, not at all. I imagine you need more information to state otherwise.