AA in trouble?

[Gugel]

Hero has no stats on the villian (though I have been datamining). This suggests he is new to $400NL or does not play often. From 20 hands, villian has a VP$IP of 35.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

CO ($599.60)
Button ($365.10)
Hero ($574.80)
BB ($744)
UTG ($2444.23)
MP ($365)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, A/images/graemlins/club.gif. Hero posts a blind of $2.
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero (poster) raises to $18</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP calls $16.

Flop: ($44) 4/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, MP calls $40.

Turn: ($124) 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $120</font>, MP raises to $240, Hero ?

Easy fold?
Push?

[xorbie]

Looks like a fold.

[ansky451]

Betting full pot on the turn just seems silly to me. You give your opponent an oppurtunity to play perfect poker pretty much.

I would hate to call off here, but I think I would. I think a set raises the flop, and I don't think I can safely put my opponent on a flush here.

Folding AA here is horrible for your meta-game considerations as well.

EDIT: If he were deeper I'd insta muck, Just seems wierd to bet almost half his stack then fold to a push.

[ansky451]

We do realize that the villain is essentially all in for 300, and this isn't a real min raise.

[xorbie]

Yeah turn pot bet sucks.

[iceman5]

[ QUOTE ]
Betting full pot on the turn just seems silly to me. You give your opponent an oppurtunity to play perfect poker pretty much.

I would hate to call off here, but I think I would. I think a set raises the flop, and I don't think I can safely put my opponent on a flush here.

Folding AA here is horrible for your meta-game considerations as well.

EDIT: If he were deeper I'd insta muck, Just seems wierd to bet almost half his stack then fold to a push.

[/ QUOTE ]

It might be if the guy knew you were folding AA. Losing money because youre worried about metagame issues is whats horrible.

[scdavis0]

who likes a smaller bet on the turn and who likes a check?

my standard line lately has been to check and value bet blank river if checked to or snap off a potential river bluff on a blank river

it's a little gross to give him infinite odds to draw out on you though

betting too weak invites a turn check/raise semi bluff

what's yalls standard line here?

[UOPokerPlayer]

easy fold. You don't have to bet that much on flop.

[ansky451]

[ QUOTE ]
It might be if the guy knew you were folding AA. Losing money because youre worried about metagame issues is whats horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Betting full pot on 3 consecutive streets then folding to a min raise when the villain is practically all in= horrible for meta-game no matter what you folded. I rarely take too much consideration into meta-game but this seems like a pretty close decision, and the metagame BS would probably sway me to the call side. I still might fold, esp if all the players were donks and not paying too much attention.