Magician
07-11-2003, 01:14 PM
$20 NLHE on Pokerstars, very similar but different situation to a hand a few weeks ago:
I have 1,475 chips. Blinds are 50/100.
I'm dealt pocket TT in UTG + 2. Folded to me. I raise to 4 BB (leaving me with 1,075 chips). Folded to cutoff (with 1150 chips) who calls (leaving him with 750 chips). Button, SB and BB fold.
Flop is A 4 3 (all of the same suit). One of the tens in my hand matches the suit on the board.
I curse being first to act and wonder what to do. I'd never seen him before but in my brief experience of sitting at the same table he had been aggressive on a couple of flops. If I just check, I think he is likely to bet. If I bet small, I think he is likely to raise. I can't bet 60-80% of the pot because it's too big a fraction of my stack - if my intention is to bet sizeably I have to move in.
I figure if he had AA, KK, QQ or even JJ he is likely to have re-raised. I figure if he has a smaller pair that my move in could make him release his hand or call (both are fine by me), if he has an Ace + a weak kicker he could release his hand, and if he has AK or AQ there is just a 1 in 4 chance that the K or Q he has matches the board and he has me drawing dead on the flush draw. I figure a bad case is he calls with an ace and I still have 10 outs twice (worst case of course is he calls with an ace and I am drawing dead on the flush giving me only 2 outs twice).
I move in, he calls and flips over A6o (the 6 not matching the suit on the board), no help arrives, and I am crippled (down to 300 chips as I had him covered).
I confirm later that I indeed had a 42% chance (the 10 outs twice) on that hand after moving in (twodimes.net).
a) Was it the right move?
b) If I knew his hand (i.e. knew for a fact he had A6o not matching the board's suit), would it still have been the right move?
I have 1,475 chips. Blinds are 50/100.
I'm dealt pocket TT in UTG + 2. Folded to me. I raise to 4 BB (leaving me with 1,075 chips). Folded to cutoff (with 1150 chips) who calls (leaving him with 750 chips). Button, SB and BB fold.
Flop is A 4 3 (all of the same suit). One of the tens in my hand matches the suit on the board.
I curse being first to act and wonder what to do. I'd never seen him before but in my brief experience of sitting at the same table he had been aggressive on a couple of flops. If I just check, I think he is likely to bet. If I bet small, I think he is likely to raise. I can't bet 60-80% of the pot because it's too big a fraction of my stack - if my intention is to bet sizeably I have to move in.
I figure if he had AA, KK, QQ or even JJ he is likely to have re-raised. I figure if he has a smaller pair that my move in could make him release his hand or call (both are fine by me), if he has an Ace + a weak kicker he could release his hand, and if he has AK or AQ there is just a 1 in 4 chance that the K or Q he has matches the board and he has me drawing dead on the flush draw. I figure a bad case is he calls with an ace and I still have 10 outs twice (worst case of course is he calls with an ace and I am drawing dead on the flush giving me only 2 outs twice).
I move in, he calls and flips over A6o (the 6 not matching the suit on the board), no help arrives, and I am crippled (down to 300 chips as I had him covered).
I confirm later that I indeed had a 42% chance (the 10 outs twice) on that hand after moving in (twodimes.net).
a) Was it the right move?
b) If I knew his hand (i.e. knew for a fact he had A6o not matching the board's suit), would it still have been the right move?