15/30 - To 3-bet or not to 3-bet? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Dazarath

12-01-2005, 08:31 AM

Villain (SB) is a 17/12/1.76 over 20k hands. I think I remember MP3 being a fish with some ridiculously high VPIP.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (10 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 7/images/graemlins/club.gif.
5 folds, MP3 calls, 2 folds, SB completes, Hero raises, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif, 3/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 calls, SB calls.

Turn: (4.50 BB) A/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP3 folds, SB raises, Hero..?

Villain in this hand is something like 45/6/0.8 over a few hundred hands.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, T/images/graemlins/club.gif. MP1 posts a blind of $15.
1 fold, Hero calls, MP1 (poster) checks, 3 folds, Button raises, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls, MP1 calls.

Flop: (8.66 SB) 2/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (4 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, MP1 folds, Button raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

Turn: (8.33 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif (2 players)
Hero bets, Button raises, Hero 3-bets, Button caps, Hero calls.

River: (16.33 BB) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
Hero..?

Piiop

12-01-2005, 08:40 AM

I'd 3bet hand 1. There are plenty of other hands he could have that you're crushing.

In hand 2, I don't really like the open limp 9handed with a poster. I guess if there were a lot of loose-passives behind you it's ok, but i'd rather open-raise. I'd bet-call the river. Since he put in all the action on the flop, I think he could have a set, AcAx, or QcJc as well as AcQ/Jc.

12-01-2005, 08:58 AM

3-bet hand 1. Villain could well have an Ace or some kind of flush draw.

Hand 2 I would check-call the river. If you are planning to bet-call the river you have to be 66% sure you have the best hand, and I think here you are not. If villain capped the turn for a free showdown I give him credit for it.

Jeffage

12-01-2005, 12:24 PM

Easy 3-bet on the turn in hand one. He could easily have something like AxK /images/graemlins/club.gif. And if he has a flush, oh well, you have outs. Set of aces is only hand you're in huge trouble against and if he has that, them's the breaks.

I'd prob checkraise the flop on hand two but bet-three bet is cool also. The rest is whatever. You're beat by one hand, what's the problem? Bet the river. If he raises, call bc 4 bets went in the previous street. If he is major aggro, go ahead and reraise but getting 4-bet will both suck and blow.

Jeff

krishanleong

12-01-2005, 01:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]

I'd prob checkraise the flop on hand two but bet-three bet is cool also. The rest is whatever. You're beat by one hand, what's the problem? Bet the river. If he raises, call bc 4 bets went in the previous street. If he is major aggro, go ahead and reraise but getting 4-bet will both suck and blow.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd guess a river cr/fold to 3-bet has a greater EV than bet/call.

Krishan

krishanleong

12-01-2005, 01:47 PM

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I'd bet-call the river.

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Bad line. He's betting everything and raising only hands that beat you. Check call is better than bet/call.

Krishan

Jeffage

12-01-2005, 02:25 PM

Interesting, except there is no way I'm folding to a 3-bet if I checkraise that river. Particularly online where there is a 4-bet cap and people are more likely to 3-bet a non-nut flush there desp. the turn action. Obv, if he 3-bets your checkraise, you are beat most of the time, but not enough to have me lay down for one bet (and have the table see my lay for one more bet after I checkraise the end).

Jeff

golferbrent

12-01-2005, 05:32 PM

Hand #1

3 bet and call down a 4 bet. Bet river if checked to

Hand #2

Lead river and call a raise.

golferbrent

12-01-2005, 05:39 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

I'd prob checkraise the flop on hand two but bet-three bet is cool also. The rest is whatever. You're beat by one hand, what's the problem? Bet the river. If he raises, call bc 4 bets went in the previous street. If he is major aggro, go ahead and reraise but getting 4-bet will both suck and blow.

Jeff

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd guess a river cr/fold to 3-bet has a greater EV than bet/call.

Krishan

[/ QUOTE ]

c/r river is an interesting line... but if 3 bet I would want to puke a little. Plus you aren't laying down 2nd nuts on river for 1 more online. That is why a bet call is a better line IMO.

Folding is never an option here. A fold would be a terrible play... the only question is how many bets do you want to get in on the river. If 3 go in and the 3rd doesnt come from us it is bad for our hand... that is why I would go for the bet/call line to insure at least one goes in, but not more then 2 bets.

Dazarath

12-01-2005, 07:54 PM

Ok, thanks for the responses.

Hand 1: This is how the action went. I 3-bet because I reasoned his hand range included aces, two pairs, not just flushes. Villain capped. The river didn't help me. I called the river bet. Is this a fold UI?

Hand 2: I checked intending to check/call. I guess I reasoned that his flop action was either TPGK, two pair, set, flush draw (probably nut draw). After the turn action, I figured it was obvious I had the flush, and now the nut flush was more likely. I pussied out on the river and checked, intending to call a bet. After the hand, I was thinking bet/call was better than check/call.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess a river cr/fold to 3-bet has a greater EV than bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]
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Bad line. He's betting everything and raising only hands that beat you. Check call is better than bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm.. could you explain your thinking here? I had relatively little reads on the villain at the time, other than the PT stats. If the villain was willing to cap the turn without the nuts, might he be willing to 3-bet the river without them as well? I understand that 0.8 AF is pretty low, but not so much for a 45 VPIP. There's also the occassional "passive" donk, who will raise the entire way donk with "monsters" (ie. set+), regardless of the board.

krishanleong

12-01-2005, 08:13 PM

[ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
I'd guess a river cr/fold to 3-bet has a greater EV than bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Bad line. He's betting everything and raising only hands that beat you. Check call is better than bet/call.

[/ QUOTE ]
Hmm.. could you explain your thinking here? I had relatively little reads on the villain at the time, other than the PT stats. If the villain was willing to cap the turn without the nuts, might he be willing to 3-bet the river without them as well? I understand that 0.8 AF is pretty low, but not so much for a 45 VPIP. There's also the occassional "passive" donk, who will raise the entire way donk with "monsters" (ie. set+), regardless of the board.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well folding to a 3-bet part only applies if Villian is predictable and known. I think calling the 3-bet is a must in this scenerio as other posters pointed out.

First the hand reading. He raises preflop. As far as suited aces that rules out some of the weaker ones. Lots of pairs/big aces.

On the flop Villian caps the flop. Some players would cap the flop with a draw but not all. Some players would cap the flop with a set, but some would wait till the turn to raise on a BB street. So flop action makes me lean just a little towards a set/two pair/made hand. Though some people push draws, not near as many cap a draw HU. (3-way sure).

On the turn it goes 4 bets quick. Everyone will go 4 bets with the flush. Only some will go 4 bets with a set. KK or 88 are both consistent with Villians play. AA with Ac also could still be in the range. I do think the turn leans the read toward a flush.

To figure out the river decision, I count hands.

We are ahead of

KK, 6 ways
88, 6 ways
AA, 12 ways?
Total 24 ways.

We are behind AcJc and AcQc. I'm discounting all the other flushes significantly because of the preflop raise.

Even if we discount the sets/AA hands 50% (which I think is overdoing it) we are still ahead of 12 and behind only 2. (6-1 in our favor).

So if you agree so far, you are trying to get more bets in the pots because you have dominant equity. What happens if you lead. KK,88,AA will call very often. Only once in a while will they raise. So you basically win close to 1 bet. The nut flush will raise, costing you 2 bets.

What happens when you check raise? KK,88 will bet all the time. AA will bet maybe half the time. So a cr nets you on average 1.5 BB when ahead. You lose 3 BB when behind. But the ratio of hands is favorable enough that you still come out ahead.

The brilliant part is when you can fold to a 3-bet. Then, when you are ahead you win 2 and when you are behind you lose 2. Compare this to bet/calling which nets you 1 when ahead and loses 2 when behind.

Krishan

Dazarath

12-01-2005, 08:40 PM

Ok, great analysis. I see the value to a CR. Would AA without the Ac 4-bet the turn? I tend to lean towards bet/call lines more than check/raise lines because there's also the possibility that an opponent will check behind all hands I beat and bet/3-bet the hands that beat me. A bet/call line guarantees that one bet goes in against hands where the villain knows he's beat, but won't lay down (ie. set, two pair, AA, etc).

After reading the responses, I'm thinking that the decision to bet/call or check/raise is read dependant, with bet/call being better as a standard line vs an unknown.

krishanleong

12-01-2005, 09:25 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Ok, great analysis. I see the value to a CR. Would AA without the Ac 4-bet the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I should cut the combinations of aces down so there are only combos with the Ac.

Krishan

krishanleong

12-01-2005, 11:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]

After reading the responses, I'm thinking that the decision to bet/call or check/raise is read dependant, with bet/call being better as a standard line vs an unknown.

[/ QUOTE ]

bet/call is aweful. If you don't like a check raise you really should be check calling. How many people cap the turn for a free showdown? If you want a bet to go in on the river, check.

Krishan

golferbrent

12-02-2005, 04:29 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

After reading the responses, I'm thinking that the decision to bet/call or check/raise is read dependant, with bet/call being better as a standard line vs an unknown.

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bet/call is aweful. If you don't like a check raise you really should be check calling. How many people cap the turn for a free showdown? If you want a bet to go in on the river, check.

Krishan

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Online i feel that the cap turn for a free showdown is a play I see quite often. Also, I believe that a bet call is good b/c often on the end an online opponent can easily raise here with a worse hand. However, you are almost never being 3 bet by a worse hand. Therefore a bet call line is better, b/c often I feel 2 bets will go in when you still have the best of it.

Dazarath

12-02-2005, 04:57 AM

What about hand 1? After I 3-bet the turn and villain caps, do I fold the river unimproved?

golferbrent

12-02-2005, 05:16 AM

Unfortunately, the pot is 12.5 BB now and I think you have to call. I don't think you are a 13-1 dog on the river, so unfortunately you need to call down and hope he shows you Aces up. Folding a winner here could be catastrophic both financially as well as, and more importantly emotionally.

12-02-2005, 06:44 AM

elindauer

12-02-2005, 07:31 AM

Hand 1: I like a call here. Villain is almost certainly raising for value here and you can't make him fold a bare club anyways. You might consider raising the river if it's a non-club blank in an effort to extract value from a turned 2-pair, but I think calling down UI in this game is the most profitable line. There are just so many ways he can have clubs...

Hand 2: Definitely check. Whether to check-call or check-raise is player dependent, but against most players, and certainly this passive guy, check-call is the best line. Bet/call is bad, since you'll get the first bet in anyways by checking and you can't possibly think you are making money on that 2nd bet, right?

good luck.
eric

elindauer

12-02-2005, 07:33 AM

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Easy 3-bet on the turn in hand one. He could easily have something like AxK /images/graemlins/club.gif.

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To put him on this hand, you have to believe that the SB, who raises 12% of his hands, has decided to just complete preflop w/ AK. No, he does not have AxK /images/graemlins/club.gif.

-Eric

elindauer

12-02-2005, 07:44 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Online i feel that the cap turn for a free showdown is a play I see quite often.

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What games do you play?

I actually did this earlier tonight and thought specifically thought to myself hmmm, what an unusual play. You don't see that very often.

bet/call is quite a poor line since virtually all turn caps are for straight value, not for free showdowns.

-Eric

elindauer

12-02-2005, 07:47 AM

I think you are WAY overvaluing the probability that a non-flush will give this much action. The idea that you are a huge favorite on the river is pretty far off if experience is any guide. It's a rare player who will cap the flop and the turn without a huge hand.

-eric

krishanleong

12-02-2005, 08:35 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are WAY overvaluing the probability that a non-flush will give this much action. The idea that you are a huge favorite on the river is pretty far off if experience is any guide. It's a rare player who will cap the flop and the turn without a huge hand.

-eric

[/ QUOTE ]

I included too many ace permutations. If you just include set configurations (discounted 50%), Acx, and QcJc, there are 8 effective hands you are ahead. I still think AJ and AQ are the only likely flushes. Maybe throw in 1 randome hand for donkyness. By this revised calc we would be a 8/3 favorite on the river. Sounds close to correct to me.

I agree 6/1 was too favorable. Thanks for chiming in! I'm glad you like a check/call over a bet/call.

Krishan

golferbrent

12-03-2005, 05:35 AM

Really??

I see this play more then you would think. Plus, I will use this play every now and then as well. In addition, the person capping may feel he is capping for value and may raise on the end with a still worse hand.

My point in my analysis was that a C/R is clearly not the correct play b/c if you go actually get 3 bet, you are definitely not in good shape!

elindauer

12-03-2005, 07:32 PM

If I could bet 3 to win 8 that you lost this hand, I'd take it. 8:3 odds is still way too high I believe. You're not discounting the hands enough given the action. Very few players give this much action on a 3-flush board without the nut flush. 1.76 AF is very reasonable. I doubt he has anything less than the nut flush. I don't think he's capping a set anywhere near 1/2 the time he has one.

I think you're probably closer to 50/50 to have the best hand, maybe even a 60/40 dog. I'm certainly not folding, but I like check-call.

If you think you are an 8:3 favorite, check-raise the river.

good luck.
eric

golferbrent

12-04-2005, 04:56 PM

I play anywhere from 15/30 to 30/60 and some 1/2. In addition, to the cap for free showdown, I also see people make this play with inferior hands as well... the most likely being a set or with a pair and the naked Ac. All in all, I am still going to lead the river and call a raise.

Abbaddabba

12-04-2005, 05:30 PM

[ QUOTE ]
What happens when you check raise? KK,88 will bet all the time. AA will bet maybe half the time. So a cr nets you on average 1.5 BB when ahead. You lose 3 BB when behind. But the ratio of hands is favorable enough that you still come out ahead.

The brilliant part is when you can fold to a 3-bet. Then, when you are ahead you win 2 and when you are behind you lose 2. Compare this to bet/calling which nets you 1 when ahead and loses 2 when behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

i dont think that there will ever be a read strong enough to fold for one bet here, absent of him showing his cards face up.

The reason you call the 3bet (which you absolutely must) is because there is a slim chance that he's 3betting with a worse hand, not because you "just gotta".

If he occasionally does this, then you must also account for that in the EV of checkraising, weighted by the probability that it would occur. There are at least some instances where you win 3 bets on the river when checkraising, even if most of the times that you get 3bet, it'll be for a loss of 3 bets.

You can't automatically write off a 3bet as a loss of 3 bets. If it was, you wouldnt be calling... but you are. Why? Because those 3bets arent an automatic write off.

[ QUOTE ]
I included too many ace permutations. If you just include set configurations (discounted 50%), Acx, and QcJc, there are 8 effective hands you are ahead. I still think AJ and AQ are the only likely flushes. Maybe throw in 1 randome hand for donkyness. By this revised calc we would be a 8/3 favorite on the river. Sounds close to correct to me.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dont think that J9s, 910s, 10Js, JQs or even 10Qs are incredibly unlikely PF raises from the button with one limper and a poster. We hold the 10 of clubs, so that eliminates 3 of them, but J9 and JQ are not absurd.

I realize that his PFR%age is only 6 after a few hundred hands and that, by the looks of things he's a loose donkish player... but i dont know if i'd discredit any of those from his range of hands, even still.