Did I do the right thing?

[Magician]

$36 + $3 Pokerstars Satellite for $200 tournament on Sunday.

I'm dealt JJ in EP with the blinds at $10/$20

I raise to 200, hoping for a loose call and an early score.

Folded to BB, who calls.

My notes on this guy show he once called a blind steal attempt I made on him with just 6 9 suited and that he is a bit of a loose cannon.

Flop is Q x x rainbow (can't remember but the other two cards were small and I don't remember any straight possibility, or open-ended straight possibility).

First to act, he bets about 90% of the pot.

I ponder whether he might have flopped trips, and decide it's possible, but unlikely.

I honestly think he's trying to buy the pot but I'd rather call and hope to reach a showdown then move on him.

I decide to call and see what he does on the turn.

Turn card is another small card (still unpaired board, but I think two of a suit now).

BB bets again.

I think the turn could not have helped either of us and his bet which is about pot size means I have to either fold or move in on him (can't call at this point as I'd be too pot-committed to fold anyway if I called).

I decide I have the best hand and move in.

BB calls and flips over AQo (ouch!).

I think the mistake here was (subconsciously) assuming that people are using the same starting hand standards as me. I would never call from the BB for 200 from an EP raiser when the blinds are $10/$20 with just AQo.

I really thought he had some kind of pocket pair or at least AK (again, making his betting on the flop and turn look to me like he was buying the pot).

I think betting 200 with Jacks that early could be called questionable but then again when you get a caller, and no overcard falls, you are in great shape, and even if an overcard falls, you still have some chance of winning the pot (you can bet enough on the flop to find out if your Jacks are good).

[cferejohn]

If I felt like I could make a raise on the flop that would not put me all-in, I would do it there to see how he responds. Otherwise, I probably make my all-in or fold decision on the flop. From the sound of it, this player *could* have been making a move, and online you don't really have much to go on other than previous play. With just one overcard, I think its really a toss up and unfortunately you guessed wrong.

If you want to avoid situations like this in the future, just tell yourself that you are not going to put all your chips in in the first couple levels unless you are nearly sure you have the best hand. You might lay down some winners, but hopefully other players are paying attention and tight play here earns your raises some respect in the more expensive rounds.

Also, this is why I wouldn't make such a big pre-flop raise. If you had made a 3-4x raise, you could have had more room to re-raise without jepordizing all your chips pre-flop.

[Justaloser]

Lets see...
You bet, he calls. Flop comes with an overcard, he bets, you call?

If you put him on a steal, then you should have popped him back right then. By playing passive, he has a pretty good idea that his top pair and top kicker are good.

Very few people will bluff the flop and river, especially out of position.

Also, with the blinds at that level, there are people that will gamble and then there's the poor players. A large bet like that now is more likely to get callers than later on in the tourney.

[Magician]

I really thought that after I called that he would check on the turn.

I think that moving in on him on the flop might have been correct against most players but I think this guy would have called anyway and it would have made no difference.

The problem with playing loose cannons is that sometimes they do have a hand.

[Justaloser]

>>The problem with playing loose cannons is that sometimes they do have a hand. <<

Been there, done that, got the t-shirt. /forums/images/icons/wink.gif


It's a tough hand. If you call, he's got every reason to bet. If you raise, he's still got the better hand, and from what you said, he'd still end up winning. Just add it to your notes and hope next time he has a hand, you've got 72os.

[Bat Cape]

I don't see much point in raising so much with JJ, especially from an early position. As Sklansky wrote in his tournament book, you're likely to only be called by big hands, such as AA,KK,QQ, AKs, and maybe even AQ. So, when called, you're not necessarily in very good shape, especially when an overcard hits the board. Early in the tournament,I prefer a limping and then punishing the morons on the flop if the conditions are favorable.

[cferejohn]

On that theme, someone in CardPlayer, I think it was Dan Negraneu (sic), said it helped him to start thinking of JJ as 88, and playing it a lot more like that than like QQ. If you think of it that way, a call and hope to flop no overcards or (dare I hope) trips makes more sense.

That said, I just had the almost exact same thing happen to me, except the guy called a big preflop raise with QJo then called my all-in on the queen high flop.

[Ignatius]

> I raise to 200, hoping for a loose call and an early score.
.
Yeah right! Raising T200 to win T30. There's about a 10% chance to run into AA-QQ, in which case you're toast, and your absurd overbet assures that you will only get called when you are either on a coinflip or a 4:1 dog. Sure, their are maniacs who will move in on you with TT or lesser hands, but do you really want to risk your whole stack with your only hope being that your opponent is a moron? In that case, you have a much better chance to be right if you raise someone who opens for 10 times the BB than doing it yourself.

[Rickfish]

I would not raise to 200. Sometimes I would limp other times I would raise 3x BB. I like to mix it up a bit.

Just because he called a steal attempt some time before doesn't mean he doesn't recognise a genuine raise from UTG. So you should still give him some credit for a decent hand, e.g. AK, AQ or a pair. If he is a loose cannon it makes calling more difficult as he could also have KQ, QJ, QT.

It is true that his flop bet could be a semi-bluff with an under-pair but I don't think you can afford to find out. His flop bet must have been in the region of 400 which leaves you little room to manoeuvre. You can't afford to throw another 400 chips away and a raise might as well be all-in which seems too risky. Getting this wrong means busting out and I think better opportunities will arise.

I don't think you had enough experience with this player to know whether his flop bet was likely to be a bluff or not. Some players in his position would check-raise with AQ. Does that mean he was worried about you having AA or KK and he was willing to lay it down? In that case if you raise it has to be on the flop when he might fold. Once you flat call he will be fairly confident he is winning.

My ideal result on the hand would be to lose T20 by limping and folding on the flop.

[Magician]

Funny, some people would say limping is worse than folding because on the flop you will have no idea what anybody has and could end up losing it all if you flop an overpair and somebody has a better hand (i.e. you trapped yourself).

Some people say betting 80 is a mistake because it doesn't narrow the range of hands you face enough. Yet when you bet 200 and do that it becomes too risky because you are now too pot committed.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

Not to be a nitpicker, but upon rereading your post, I find an inconsistency. On one hand you say

My notes on this guy show he once called a blind steal attempt I made on him with just 6 9 suited

Yet at the end you say

I think the mistake here was (subconsciously) assuming that people are using the same starting hand standards as me.

No offense, but which is it? Let's examine each premise. Your note said he called a blind steal with 96s. Fine, but at what level? Plus, here you're raising in EP, less likely to be a steal. Now let's fast forward to your comment about his calling standards. In this case you raise 10x the BB. How does he interpret this raise? Maybe that you don't want callers? If so, maybe he thinks you have a semi-big pair that's sensitive to overcards, say JJ or TT. Now going with *his* read, he knows he has 2 overcards, and if an A, K or Q flops, he puts pressure on you. He does that. Now, if you really believe you're still ahead here, this is the time to attack. When you just call, he must belive that 1) he's in the lead, or 2) you hold the same hand.

Then, as you say, the turn helps neither of you, he bets the pot again. When do you give him credit for having you beat? So if you discount the idea that he's bluffing, what range of hands do you have him on that you can beat?

Bottom line, if you think he's on a re-steal, raise all-in on the flop, he may give you credit for having queens beat.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I think by varying your bet/raise amounts you give away more than you gain.

[Magician]

He could have had TT, 99 or AK. I really thought he would check on the turn.

When he bet on the turn that was the time to think of folding but by then I was too pot committed to turn back.

The thing is he could easily have had AK and made the exact same moves and I would have had him beat then.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

He could have had TT, 99 or AK

My feeling is that AQ is more likely than AK, If he's the type who would call a steal with 96s, I think he'd reraise AK preflop, but that's just my opinion.

When he bet on the turn that was the time to think of folding but by then I was too pot committed to turn back.

No you're not. It's the first round and you still have about 950. That's 47.5x big blind. You're not even close to being desperate yet.

[Magician]

a) Hard to say, I wouldn't be surprised if he had called with AKo.

b) It was part pot commitment, part the feeling he was making a move on me. I just went with my gut which said I still had the best hand.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

I won't argue with going with your gut, but I will hammer away on the pot commitment part because I think *that* feeling was a big factor in shaping your decision. With the blinds this low, folding this hand on the turn would not have hurt your chances to get into the top 1/6.

Hey, this is part of my learning process, too, so I hope you don't think I'm holding myself out as some paradigm of knowledge. Sometimes when I go with my gut, I get the feeling in retrospect that my gut was sugar-coating my chances /forums/images/icons/tongue.gif

[Magician]

In theory, with 950 chips vs. 1,500 my chances of getting into the last 1 in 6 have dropped from 1 in 6 to about 1 in 9 assuming average play.

[Kurn, son of Mogh]

My approach is a bit different. To make one in six, the average amount of chips needed is 9,000. In most cases, in these satellites, you reach the bubble at about the 600/1200/a50 blind/ante level, so you'd like to get to 9,000 a couple of levels prior to that, say 300/600/a25. That's my goal.

Now, to stay "comfortable" and be able to play right (limp when appropriate, win blinds without going all-in, be able to make good value bets, etc., I think you need about 20x BB. Desparation begins as your chip count gets to half that. Thus, iat the 10/20 level, I find it much easier to play conservatively, knowing I have enough chips to outplay those opponents I *can* outplay and work my way back into contention.

Now, put this type of hand later in the tournament, where I've got 35% of my stack in and what remains is only 7x the BB instead of 49x, now I make the same play as you (although I'd still make the move on the flop)in a heartbeat.

remember, the best way to win a tournament is to win by avoiding as many big confrontations as possible early, win a lot of small ones so when you have to go after someone preflop on a coinflip, you've got them covered by enough that if your read is wrong or they suck out, you've still got enough chips to claw your way back.