View Full Version : top 2, monotone flop, big pot
surfdoc
11-25-2005, 10:53 PM
CO in this hand is new to the table and playing pretty loose and aggro but it has only been 20 hands. Button is standard LAG at 55/16/1.3 over 140 hands. UTG is 81/10/.4 after 80 hands.
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)
Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.
Is this a routine cap vs this crowd?
Flop: (13.40 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, UTG folds, Hero calls.
Turn: (8.20 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls.
River: (14.20 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.
Pot is big, am I ever good here? I think I can lay this down if button calls.
Final Pot: 16.20 BB
I think you should C/R the flop instead of waiting until the turn.
I think you win pretty infrequently here, but I'm not sure I could or should lay this down on the river.
everyone who calls one bet on the flop will have the odds to call two (and they won't be cold-calling), at least if they are on a draw... what does the c/r accomplish? at least on the turn they might not have the proper odds then.
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everyone who calls one bet on the flop will have the odds to call two (and they won't be cold-calling), at least if they are on a draw... what does the c/r accomplish? at least on the turn they might not have the proper odds then.
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It accomplishes getting more chips into the pot with the very likely best hand. Just because they have the odds to call doesn't mean you don't bet the best hand. It also accomplishes possibly folding a small diamond when we lead the turn.
Edit: To be clear, we're closing the action. It's not like we're C/Ring to face anyone with 2 cold. If we just call, we still have little opportunity to face anyone with two cold on the turn -- we essentially have to donk-bet and hope that CO raises a worst hand to fold out hands that would have the odds to call one but not two on the turn -- that's quite a parlay.
imitation
11-25-2005, 11:16 PM
Ram and jam the flop yo
Spicymoose
11-25-2005, 11:19 PM
I think you need to bet-3bet this flop. The 3-better might get scared on the flop, and check through, which would be awful. You are giving him a second opportunity on the turn, which I also think is bad. Given how you played, I think a river call is fine, but I wouldn't of played it like you did. At least check raise the flop if you checked to begin with...
Spicymoose
11-25-2005, 11:21 PM
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everyone who calls one bet on the flop will have the odds to call two (and they won't be cold-calling), at least if they are on a draw... what does the c/r accomplish? at least on the turn they might not have the proper odds then.
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Think about what you are saying. Should we not bet AA if we know our opponent is on a flush draw simply because he will call? In this situation, we are very likely to have the best hand, and we want to get value out of this. We might even get people with baby flush draws to fold.
surfdoc
11-25-2005, 11:22 PM
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everyone who calls one bet on the flop will have the odds to call two (and they won't be cold-calling), at least if they are on a draw... what does the c/r accomplish? at least on the turn they might not have the proper odds then.
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It accomplishes getting more chips into the pot with the very likely best hand. Just because they have the odds to call doesn't mean you don't bet the best hand. It also accomplishes possibly folding a small diamond when we lead the turn.
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Of course the flop CR gets more money in when I likely have the best hand but nobody will be making a mistake drawing to anything. The main reason I waited for the turn is that my equity is going to change dramatically if a diamond or another broadway card hits. I would not do this unless I was fairly certain that someone bets the turn. This way I can trap them for a double sized bet when my equity is much better. I do lose the opportunity to fold a small diamond but even though these guys are pretty awful it is less likely that the 3 bettor or the guys coldcalling 3 have a small diamond. (of course they will sometimes with a pocket pair and a diamond)
Spicymoose
11-25-2005, 11:25 PM
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everyone who calls one bet on the flop will have the odds to call two (and they won't be cold-calling), at least if they are on a draw... what does the c/r accomplish? at least on the turn they might not have the proper odds then.
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It accomplishes getting more chips into the pot with the very likely best hand. Just because they have the odds to call doesn't mean you don't bet the best hand. It also accomplishes possibly folding a small diamond when we lead the turn.
[/ QUOTE ]
Of course the flop CR gets more money in when I likely have the best hand but nobody will be making a mistake drawing to anything. The main reason I waited for the turn is that my equity is going to change dramatically if a diamond or another broadway card hits. I would not do this unless I was fairly certain that someone bets the turn. This way I can trap them for a double sized bet when my equity is much better. I do lose the opportunity to fold a small diamond but even though these guys are pretty awful it is less likely that the 3 bettor or the guys coldcalling 3 have a small diamond. (of course they will sometimes with a pocket pair and a diamond)
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How sure are you that the turn isn't getting checked through?
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everyone who calls one bet on the flop will have the odds to call two (and they won't be cold-calling), at least if they are on a draw... what does the c/r accomplish? at least on the turn they might not have the proper odds then.
[/ QUOTE ]
It accomplishes getting more chips into the pot with the very likely best hand. Just because they have the odds to call doesn't mean you don't bet the best hand. It also accomplishes possibly folding a small diamond when we lead the turn.
[/ QUOTE ]
Of course the flop CR gets more money in when I likely have the best hand but nobody will be making a mistake drawing to anything. The main reason I waited for the turn is that my equity is going to change dramatically if a diamond or another broadway card hits. I would not do this unless I was fairly certain that someone bets the turn. This way I can trap them for a double sized bet when my equity is much better. I do lose the opportunity to fold a small diamond but even though these guys are pretty awful it is less likely that the 3 bettor or the guys coldcalling 3 have a small diamond. (of course they will sometimes with a pocket pair and a diamond)
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This pot is really big -- it's going to be tough to give anyone improper odds to call bet(s) if they're playing a legitimate hand on this board against a PFR and PF 3-bettor. When you can't protect, bet for value.
As to waiting until the turn - you're opf course correct that your equity can change quite a bit from flop to turn depending on what falls; however, there's a ton of value to be had from single diamonds on the flop, especially if CO has a big A and will make it three bets allowing you to cap. And you're not going to be folding for one bet on the turn if a diamond falls, right? So be waiting for the turn, you forgo however many additional bets you could collect on the flop so that you're able to (1) collect an extra BB from one or both players if all goes according to plan, or (2) save bets by folding when it goes check-bet-raise. I think the trade-off isn't sufficient here, and I'd much prefer trying to get more bets in on this flop.
mtdoak
11-25-2005, 11:31 PM
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Pot is big, am I ever good here? I think I can lay this down if button calls.
Final Pot: 16.20 BB
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Probably. This is standard overcalling. Unless the Co is a hardcore calling station, you can muck.
surfdoc
11-25-2005, 11:38 PM
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How sure are you that the turn isn't getting checked through?
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Pertty darn sure that one of them bets. Get into the mind of a LAG. With the A and J of trump on the board it is pretty obvious that nobody has a flush unless it is exactly KQs or very unlikely QTs. So he is thinking "Nobody has shown aggression, I am a LAG, my Ace-whatever is boss". He is also likely to fire with KdK or QdQ thinking he can't give a free card and that he is drawing very live even if an ace is out. (of course he is not really capable of thinking this but a LAG frame of mind would just play it this way without really thinking about it.)
it sounds like you agree with me.. that c/r turn gives incorrect odds but c/r flop does not.
PassiveCaller
11-26-2005, 02:02 AM
I think calling the flop and then raising the turn allows you to put in more bets with better equity and allows you the better player to make a more sound decision when the bets are bigger and make the drawers or single pair hands make a larger mistake. If you are pretty sure he will bet the turn this line is superior.
if the flop just had two diamonds i'd c/r the flop though.
deepsquat
11-26-2005, 02:10 AM
Those who say c/r the flop, would you do this with strong TP in this spot, say A74d board?
surfdoc
11-26-2005, 02:16 AM
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if the flop just had two diamonds i'd c/r the flop though.
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yessir.
because two diamonds have odds to chase with one bet, but not two, right? i love math poker /images/graemlins/laugh.gif
surfdoc
11-26-2005, 02:21 AM
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it sounds like you agree with me.. that c/r turn gives incorrect odds but c/r flop does not.
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It is hard to know if they will be making a mistake or not because good draws will have the odds to call but that is not the whole point. You will definately make them make a worse call on the turn than on the flop but you really just want to get the money in while you have the best equity.
reminds me of SSHE where they talk about waiting until the turn with TT but leading the flop with AA, since TT has such a bigger swing in equity on the turn.
DeathDonkey
11-26-2005, 02:33 AM
Value bet the river.
-DeathDonkey
PassiveCaller
11-26-2005, 02:53 AM
I ignored the river since I didn't really mind his decision. If he thinks he can fold safely to a raise then a bet isn't bad but with the LAG things get trickier. Actually I'd probably even want my opponent to be predisposed to just call even with some of the stronger diamonds that aren't nut to bet since I really don't want 2 bets in on this river, like ever and I dont want to just fold to the lag as practice. So basically he needs loose and passives for this. And in practice I really really just want 1 bet to go in on the river and want it to be 1 bet headsup.... so how do we accomplish this....sounds like check.
The river is sick and if he isnt sure he can check, and call 1 and fold a lot easier as an overcaller yielding probably a better net result (being able to fold if its 2 back to him, fold if hes an overcaller and never having to fold after betting). Not hugely -EV/+EV either way with pot size so the ancilliary reasons to want to take a route most conducive to showdown make it best for me and is often the best route in short handed limit hold'em for other meta reasons. Yeah Yeah I've convinced myself ranting I like check more just thinking about what can happen action wise.
surfdoc
11-26-2005, 02:55 AM
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Value bet the river.
-DeathDonkey
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Only if you are the villian.
me454555
11-26-2005, 03:44 AM
The point of this value bet isn't to fold a diamond but to get money from people who have to call b/c "the pot is too big to fold". CO 3 bet and button called 3 cold pf. They've already called a ton so why would they fold on the river in a huge pot for 1 bet. These guys will call w/Ax, Kx and almost any PP b/c why the hell not. Hero can also fold to a raise b/c no hand that he beats would raise this.
On top of this, villains are less likely to bluff at this pot b/c its not HU. The presence of 2 other opponents makes a bluff far less likely. The result of the 2 statements is that the villains will not likely valuebet a worse hand than heros but will value bet a stronger hand than heros. They will however call w/a weaker hand than heros but raise a stronger one. Since we agree that hero has to call 1 bet on the river anyway b/c of the size of the pot, betting is a better option than checking
surfdoc
11-26-2005, 03:57 AM
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The point of this value bet isn't to fold a diamond but to get money from people who have to call b/c "the pot is too big to fold". CO 3 bet and button called 3 cold pf. They've already called a ton so why would they fold on the river in a huge pot for 1 bet. These guys will call w/Ax, Kx and almost any PP b/c why the hell not. Hero can also fold to a raise b/c no hand that he beats would raise this.
On top of this, villains are less likely to bluff at this pot b/c its not HU. The presence of 2 other opponents makes a bluff far less likely. The result of the 2 statements is that the villains will not likely valuebet a worse hand than heros but will value bet a stronger hand than heros. They will however call w/a weaker hand than heros but raise a stronger one. Since we agree that hero has to call 1 bet on the river anyway b/c of the size of the pot, betting is a better option than checking
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This is good analysis and horrible analysis all at the same time. There are retards in this game and random, retarded desperation bluffs are more common than 15:1. I am willing to miss a fraction of a bet to avoid losing the entire pot. Not to mention sometimes these guys chicken out with a crap diamond or have a set that froze up by the scary board and I save a bet when behind.
me454555
11-26-2005, 04:04 AM
Your not going to get the pot stolen from you against guys w/those stats. If they raise, they've got you beat. No one has played their hand like they have a set so I wouldn't fear that. If they do have a set and play it that weak there also might be a chance they fold it.
In my mind it comes down to whether they will call more often with a crap hand or they will freeze up w/the a low diamond/bluff at the pot. I believe they will call more often w/a hand you beat than freeze up w/a low diamond or bluff so betting is the right play.
I'm making these assumptions based on the fact they button has been calling the whole time and co seems to like his hand as well and may look you up.
As a side note, I think you have to include AK in the hand ranges of CO and button and getting them to fold just once in a blue moon is HUGE +EV
DeathDonkey
11-26-2005, 04:05 AM
You said this way better than I could have.
-DeathDonkey
surfdoc
11-26-2005, 07:48 PM
Here is a look at the entire hand. The guy turned out to be a super dooper nut job so I am sure glad I didn't bet/fold the river because he was definitely crazy enough to raise the river. Thanks for the replies.
Party Poker 5/10 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)
Preflop: Hero is MP with A/images/graemlins/heart.gif, J/images/graemlins/heart.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#CC3333">CO 3-bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, UTG calls, Hero calls.
Flop: (13.40 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(4 players)</font>
UTG checks, Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, UTG folds, Hero calls.
Turn: (8.20 BB) 9/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button calls, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, CO calls, Button calls.
River: (14.20 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">CO bets</font>, Button folds, Hero calls.
Final Pot: 16.20 BB
Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF">
Hero has Ah Jh (two pair, aces and jacks).
CO has 7c Kc (two pair, kings and sevens).
Outcome: Hero wins 16.20 BB. </font>
POKhER
11-26-2005, 08:06 PM
I think you played this hand perfectly and can call the river with no regrets.
Just my 2cents, Kind of tired so skipped a few posts.
p.s. guys please quote eachother when replying, when threads get large they get confusing.
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