Odds of hitting a jackpot

[JasonM]

Now that the jackpot is getting fairly large at my local card club, there has been all kinds of discussion about it. The question came up of what are the odds of hitting it. Nobody had any idea of how to figure that out, so I said I would post it here.

The rules at my local club say that a jackpot is awarded when Aces full of Tens or better is beaten by four of a kind of better. Both pocket cards must play. How do you determine the odds of hitting it? I would guess the easiest way to hit it would be aces full of x, where x = tens or better, beaten by quad x.

[asdf1234]

Canterbury Park by any chance?

I doubt that there's any surefire way to calculate this that's not tremendously difficult, so I ran a simulation on TTH (I knew that damn program was good for something) using their low limit players. I ran it for 6,000,000 hands and it averaged that there was "Aces-Full Beaten the Hard Way" 254 times or once every 23824 deals and once every 238249 per player.

I think there is a problem with these numbers, however, as I believe it considers all aces full. Ex. AA vs. 22 with A22xx would qualify according to their rules, but Canterbury disallows this. It needs to be aces full of tens or better. So I would guess that it is considerably less frequent.

Hope this helps.