AK unimproved river value bet? [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

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Argus

11-03-2005, 03:44 AM

SB is a TAG. I think he might fold too much, but I'll let you judge: his WTSD is 36%. The rest of his stats are 21/16.5/2.3 over 2100 hands (datamined). We don't have any significant history at this table.

UTG is a gold mine: 93/30/0.75 over an expensive (for him) 300 hands. He will showdown ace high, and call to the river with any two, though he only shows down his "better" hands.

When SB checks the river, should I value bet, hoping to fold AK or collect a bet from UTG?

Empire 10/20 Hold'em (6 max, 5 handed) converter (http://www.fourthnut.com/cgi-bin/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif.
UTG calls, 1 fold, Hero raises, SB 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, Hero caps, SB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (13 SB) 3/images/graemlins/club.gif, 8/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 6/images/graemlins/club.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (3 players)
SB bets, UTG calls, Hero calls.

River: (11 BB) 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif (3 players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero?

mperich

11-03-2005, 03:54 AM

River has no value. I usually fold the turn.

-Mike

Victor

11-03-2005, 03:57 AM

pls fold the turn.

imported_leader

11-03-2005, 04:01 AM

[ QUOTE ]
pls fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain please. I've been calling in these type spots.

Victor

11-03-2005, 04:03 AM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
pls fold the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

Explain please. I've been calling in these type spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

bc a q hit.

jdl22

11-03-2005, 04:45 AM

I agree with the fold turn people.

If you get amnesia and aren't aware of the river check you are drawing to six outs that must be highly discounted. He could easily have AQ or KQ (especially suited) here. In either case you have 3 outs. If he has AK you must also cut your outs in half. I don't think you have enough to continue. Sure sometimes you will win UI but that doesn't seem likely since SB has shown some strength and UTG will be ahead of you half the time with his random holdings.

imported_leader

11-03-2005, 04:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the fold turn people.

If you get amnesia and aren't aware of the river check you are drawing to six outs that must be highly discounted. He could easily have AQ or KQ (especially suited) here. In either case you have 3 outs. If he has AK you must also cut your outs in half. I don't think you have enough to continue. Sure sometimes you will win UI but that doesn't seem likely since SB has shown some strength and UTG will be ahead of you half the time with his random holdings.

[/ QUOTE ]

Makes sense /images/graemlins/smile.gif Fold the turn it is

Argus

11-03-2005, 05:01 AM

Thanks, this explanation is really great. At first I though, "Oh, the call's not that bad." Then you made me realise it was.

Jinx

11-03-2005, 05:20 AM

fold the turn because UTG called. Certainly don't bet the river. If UTG wasn't there, I don't think a calldown is awful.

Argus

11-03-2005, 05:25 AM

[ QUOTE ]
fold the turn because UTG called. Certainly don't bet the river. If UTG wasn't there, I don't think a calldown is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]
UTG calling makes me want to call more, not less. I am ahead of him nearly always here. I still think the turn is a fold though.

Jinx

11-03-2005, 05:27 AM

My bad, didn't read your reads. Eh, still, the fact that UTG will show down "any 2" doesn't make your ace high any less likely to be good vs 2 people.

surfdoc

11-03-2005, 05:37 AM

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[ QUOTE ]
fold the turn because UTG called. Certainly don't bet the river. If UTG wasn't there, I don't think a calldown is awful.

[/ QUOTE ]
UTG calling makes me want to call more, not less. I am ahead of him nearly always here. I still think the turn is a fold though.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't agree with your logic regarding the donk in this pot. Although his bet pads the pot a bit for your river call like you mentioned, it is common for this guy to have a pair like 44 or some other crap and take the pot. Unless he is calling down with like ten high which i doubt.

Argus

11-03-2005, 05:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't agree with your logic regarding the donk in this pot. Although his bet pads the pot a bit for your river call like you mentioned, it is common for this guy to have a pair like 44 or some other crap and take the pot. Unless he is calling down with like ten high which i doubt.

[/ QUOTE ]
He will certainly call a turn bet with ten high, but I haven't seen him showdown less than Q-high. He really is padding the pot. He would play a pair the same way, but there are many more unpaired hands than paired ones.

surfdoc

11-03-2005, 05:55 AM

My bad, I thought you were talking about the river.