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View Full Version : $11 Okay Push?

10-27-2005, 02:04 AM
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Level 7: Blinds (75/150)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 4
Seat 6: Hero ( $1375 )
Seat 3: falcons21ATL ( $1392 )
Seat 1: TrOiCho99 ( $2370 )
Seat 9: brutusmilo ( $2863 )
Trny:16911974 Level:5
Blinds(75/150)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ As Qh ]
brutusmilo calls [150].
TrOiCho99 folds.
falcons21ATL is all-In [1317]
Hero ?

Villain has been pretty tight/aggressive so far. It seemed like a pretty easy push to me?
10-27-2005, 02:06 AM
ez call, unless ur table is extremely tight and ur better off stealing.You'll usually be racing vs a pocket pair or up against Ax here neway.
Freudian
10-27-2005, 02:14 AM
What does that limp mean to you? Is it the normal "I want to play this hand but not for a lot of chips" limp?

Sometimes I call. Sometimes I fold. I'd lean towards calling here though.
SammyKid11
10-27-2005, 02:25 AM
I like it.
SammyKid11
10-27-2005, 02:28 AM
[ QUOTE ]
ez call, unless ur table is extremely tight and ur better off stealing.You'll usually be racing vs a pocket pair or up against Ax here neway.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree...which is why I like pushing. If you're racing a pocket, okay that's worst case scenario. If you're up against AX or KQ, KJs, etc., then fantastic...excellent chance of a double-up. Plus against just a limp you have pretty decent FE.

On the other hand, you can call off ~12% of your stack and have a >50% chance of not hitting the flop and folding.

Is my logic flawed here...isn't this a push?
Shillx
10-27-2005, 02:34 AM
Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.
10-27-2005, 02:42 AM
Even against a Tag, the blinds are getting steep for the stack that he has. He'll have to end up making a move sooner or later. Only reason i'd fold is if the player wuz a rock and the table wuz really tight. Otherwise this seems like the best spot or you'll have to end up pushing with Ax a bit later down the road.
tigerite
10-27-2005, 04:55 AM
This is not as straightforward as some people are making out.

His range has to be in 33+, A7o+, A4s+, KTs+ to make this profitable to call/push. With your description of him I'd have to say, this is not likely.
tigerite
10-27-2005, 04:56 AM
[ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally someone else has looked at the maths.
tigerite
10-27-2005, 05:00 AM
[ QUOTE ]
If you're up against KJs, then fantastic...excellent chance of a double-up.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is the bubble. It is not "excellent" at all to be up against KJs, seeing as you have to be close to a 55% favourite over his range to make this call, yes AQo v KJs is just over at 59%, but if he has a pocket pair, a call is terrible, as you're ~45%.
Sciolist
10-27-2005, 05:01 AM
This looks like a fold to me... I don't like the limper, and I don't like a TAG without a big history of raising all-in doing this in front of me. I'm pretty sure I'd pass here.
10-27-2005, 12:00 PM
My initial instinct was to call, but after not much thought I changed my mind.

As tigerbite et al has already pointed out, you need him to have a wide push range to make this a good move.

The range you'd need seems unlikely even from open push--toss in the fact that he's pushing into the Hero and a limper, and I can only conclude that his range is almost definitely not wide enough.

There's also the "hidden" scenerio if you're doing ICM math--the limper calls and wins, which is probably not extremely common but jacks up your equity without the gain or loss of chips. You must discount this potential equity from your final equity delta for calling (which is likely negative anyway).
jedi
10-27-2005, 12:41 PM
[ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is in the Big Blind, right? That skews the numbers enough where I think this is auto call, especially if hero is playing for first. If he is trying to limp into the money, then fold but there's no guarantee that limper villain behind will call the all-in for 1/2 his chips. He might be "action bluffing" here and you could be easily ahead of SB's hand in this situation. SB might just be taking a stand with a worse A high.
10-27-2005, 12:46 PM
That might be a great point--I forgot about the fact that hero really only has ~1150 if he folds.

I still don't think it's an auto-call, though.
jedi
10-27-2005, 12:48 PM
[ QUOTE ]
That might be a great point--I forgot about the fact that hero really only has ~1150 if he folds.

I still don't think it's an auto-call, though.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah, "auto-call" was probably a bad choice of words. Still I call, even if I don't like it.
bluefeet
10-27-2005, 01:01 PM
Two problems:

- big stack is left to act
- SB pushed despite big stack's limp

While big stack's limp on it's own merits might not be too alarming, it does provide a couple pieces to the puzzle.

Removing big stack from the hand, we need a fairly wide pushing range from SB to make this +EV. Taking big stack out of the equation, it is certainly reasonable to put that range on just about any two.

But with him pusing despite big stack's limp, I think we have to reduce SB's range - perhaps so much so that this is clearly a fold, even without "problem #1".

If SB whispers to us that his range is indeed suspect, we're still not out of the woods. Big stack only needs to call t1,100ish more in a pot of t2,800. With the benifit of knowing ONE of you short stacks will be essentially out of the game.
Paxosmotic
10-27-2005, 01:38 PM
Easy fold. See also : my $55 AQs thread last night where the hand was such a disaster we started talking about shoes just to make me feel better.
10-27-2005, 01:39 PM
was the guy a limper at this stage??? Those are big blinds to be open limping, could mean big pocket that wants action bad! No?
tigerite
10-27-2005, 01:42 PM
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Are we looking at the same post? Some dude moved in before the hero got to act. I don't see how we can play AQ as we have to be a 54-55% favorite against the pushers range. If he is playing TAG I don't see how we have it in this spot though I could be wrong. From SNGPT, it is a sizable mistake if he is pushing 77+ and A9+.

Edit - If the dude in front pushed I'd call with AK and fold AQ. If the dude in front folded I'd push for sure.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero is in the Big Blind, right? That skews the numbers enough where I think this is auto call, especially if hero is playing for first. If he is trying to limp into the money, then fold but there's no guarantee that limper villain behind will call the all-in for 1/2 his chips. He might be "action bluffing" here and you could be easily ahead of SB's hand in this situation. SB might just be taking a stand with a worse A high.

[/ QUOTE ]

I allowed for that as I always do. The figures I have quoted are 100% correct.