Azad
06-08-2003, 03:07 PM
I have been playing recreationally over the last year and a half and keeping meticulous records. I have been very happy with my results but in many ways they just look too good to be true. I cannot find any mistakes in my calculations and yet something tells me I just cannot be that good. Here is the data:
20-40 HE (started playing this high 18 months ago)
600 total hours (about 60 sessions)
Hourly Rate: $47
Standard Deviation: $300
Now the reason I know there is something wrong with this picture is that by these numbers I would fit the expert status of what S&M describe in their books, i.e. someone who makes over one big bet an hour with a reasonable SD. I play poker purely for fun and though I do take it very seriously and try to excel, I doubt I have reached such heights so quickly. The other problem with my numbers is that the required bankroll for my 20-40 HE game based on my results will be only $4,700 which is impossible. (BTW my numbers are right: I have done the calculations by hand, Excel and StatKing and they all agree).
I am not sure how to explain the anomaly in my results. Have I just been too lucky for a long period of time? I cannot come up with an alternative explanation. Comments appreciated.
Azad
20-40 HE (started playing this high 18 months ago)
600 total hours (about 60 sessions)
Hourly Rate: $47
Standard Deviation: $300
Now the reason I know there is something wrong with this picture is that by these numbers I would fit the expert status of what S&M describe in their books, i.e. someone who makes over one big bet an hour with a reasonable SD. I play poker purely for fun and though I do take it very seriously and try to excel, I doubt I have reached such heights so quickly. The other problem with my numbers is that the required bankroll for my 20-40 HE game based on my results will be only $4,700 which is impossible. (BTW my numbers are right: I have done the calculations by hand, Excel and StatKing and they all agree).
I am not sure how to explain the anomaly in my results. Have I just been too lucky for a long period of time? I cannot come up with an alternative explanation. Comments appreciated.
Azad