Bubble: ATo hand

[Scuba Chuck]

Blinds 200/400 a 25

UTG 920
Button 4075
SB 6540
BB (hero) 1965

Preflop: Hero dealth A/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
2 folds, SB raises to t800 (minimum raise), Hero folds

I ran this through SGA for a standard maniac push and a call, and of course calling is no good. I'm not sure how much FE we have here. My read at the time was that villain could be doing this with an extremely wide range of hands, and that he's likely gonna call with top 50% of hands or so. I thought about calling, but I hate how my stack looks postflop if I whiff.

Anyhow, had villain moved allin, this is an easy decision, but the fact there may be some FE makes this a little more difficult. What's really challenging here is that the next hand villain likely makes a stand, or gets a free ride if folded to me and I have crap. Ugh.

[zambonidrivr]

Fold, UTG is broke in 2 hands. U push this villan ain't going anywhere with that stack

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold, UTG is broke in 2 hands. U push this villan ain't going anywhere with that stack

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you read this part?

[ QUOTE ]
What's really challenging here is that the next hand villain likely makes a stand, or gets a free ride if folded to me and I have crap. Ugh.


[/ QUOTE ]

[zambonidrivr]

true. but it also looks like big stack knows that raising any 2 every hand is +ev. i would expect him to do the same next hand. THANK YOU FOR THIS POST BECAUSE I AM TAKING A NEW LINE HERE. SHOVE THIS ALL DAY!

[RobGW]

Without a read, I'd shove my chips in. #1. You probably have the best hand. You might even have him dominated. #2. UTG is not gone in 2 hands. He can easily double up and then you are the shorty fighting for your life. #3. You might have more FE than you think. A min raise often means he is just trying to steal counting on you being scared to get involved. Of course this will depend on your opponent and your image etc. If you fold here you are left with 1500 with blinds this high you might not get another hand this good. By pushing back you send a message that you are not to be fckd with. If you win you are going to be ITM barring some sort of suckout. And you'll be in better poristion to win it all.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
true. but it also looks like big stack knows that raising any 2 every hand is +ev. i would expect him to do the same next hand. THANK YOU FOR THIS POST BECAUSE I AM TAKING A NEW LINE HERE. SHOVE THIS ALL DAY!

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not sure if you're being serious or sarcastic, but raising any two is surely not +EV. Moving me allin with any two here is +EV.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Blinds 200/400 a 25

UTG 920
Button 4075
SB 6540
BB (hero) 1965

Preflop: Hero dealth A/images/graemlins/club.gif T/images/graemlins/spade.gif
2 folds, SB raises to t800 (minimum raise), Hero folds

I ran this through SGA for a standard maniac push and a call, and of course calling is no good. I'm not sure how much FE we have here. My read at the time was that villain could be doing this with an extremely wide range of hands, and that he's likely gonna call with top 50% of hands or so. I thought about calling, but I hate how my stack looks postflop if I whiff.

Anyhow, had villain moved allin, this is an easy decision, but the fact there may be some FE makes this a little more difficult. What's really challenging here is that the next hand villain likely makes a stand, or gets a free ride if folded to me and I have crap. Ugh.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a GOOD hand post...

Here is what makes it so damn difficult in my mind...

-You REALLY lack FE here, and you kinda don't want to be called.

-Shortie is not THAT short given the blinds. If you fold here and he gets a free pass, you guys are, for all intents and purposes, even.

-worse, if shortie makes a stand on the next hand(s) and wins, you are the crap-stack.

I think if shortie had less, this would be a fold...if you had 1000 more, I'd like my FE better.

given the blinds, and the ambiguous sizes of your stack and shortie's, I would push and pray...I dont think there is enough disparity to hold out for 3rd here...its close though.

[Scuba Chuck]

Pooh, u realize that you MUST have some FE here to believe that this move is +EV over the long haul. I hope we all realize that this is the cruxt of this hand/post.

[kevkev60614]

You describe villain as if he's not a total donk. At the level you play at, I imagine SB would normally pushes this. Why the minraise? It's either so he can get away or because he wants to play with you. Any clue which?

If it's pretty unlikely he's trying to suck you in, I think you have to push. He might still call, but now if he does your hand looks good to double up.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
Pooh, u realize that you MUST have some FE here to believe that this move is +EV over the long haul. I hope we all realize that this is the cruxt of this hand/post.

[/ QUOTE ]

well you do have SOME fe...I didnt say you had zero. You just dont have enough really SCARE villain (he is getting ~1.7-1 which is better for you than I originally thought.) And based on his range here, (who knows...pretty wide?) I think it could be a mistake to call you...But I am not going to try and get inside villain's head.

I mean, geez, one always has a degree of FE...Ive seen some crazy stuff, i.e. minraise at 400bb and BB minraises back Sb folds, for example.

My only point is that I think this is borderline as to whether you have ENOUGH FE and whether shortie's stack is the kind of size where your standing to place is best left as is and NOT gambling with shotty FE.

I really dont think we can talk about FE w/o talking about shorty...they are so intertwined.

I always just see FE as a matter of degree, not kind.

[Seadood228]

I think it's safe to say that this hand pretty much sucks. You have very little FE here, and we all know what to do if you have 0 FE. Although I hate to do it, I'd probably fold this one and hope someone wakes up with something next hand.

It's very close though, everyone stacks are just at the right spot (no FE against the 1 and 2 stacks), that make this borderline.

This is one of those plays that usually end in your favor during a hot streak, and blow up in your face when you are running cold. Just play accordingly /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Seadood228]

[ QUOTE ]
By pushing back you send a message that you are not to be fckd with

[/ QUOTE ]

That's a tough message to convey from the rail though /images/graemlins/smile.gif

I'm starting to agree with you here though. This is a situation where, for all intents and purposes, hero's stack is roughly the same size as the shorties. This kind of throws all the numbers for a loop..

hmm..

[valenzuela]

And if you call and raise all-in if an Ace or Ten flops?, looks proftable for me.
Plus if you fold you wont earn FE since next hand UTG is going to war anyway.

Can you imagine watching 4 handed at the final table of the WSOP or WPT and seeing (insert favorite poker pro here) in the big blind and folding to a minimum raise from the small blind with A10? Are you trying to win, or finish 3rd? Maybe you will get AK or QQ next round. Probably 94o though. I think you push here. He is probably picking on you with any 2, in which case, what are the odds he has AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 10 10, AK, AQ, or AJ? Much more likely he has j10, A6, K2s, etc. If you want to play it safe, call the bet and fold if you whiff. But I think a push is best, if you're trying to win.

[pooh74]

[ QUOTE ]
If you want to play it safe, call the bet and fold if you whiff.

[/ QUOTE ]

This place flames for thoughts like these...but, depending on the level, you sometimes have more FE on the flop than you do preflop. I don't think this is one of those cases...

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
But I think a push is best, if you're trying to win.

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Hmmmm. So then we're deciding between ROI and $/hr again.

[valenzuela]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
But I think a push is best, if you're trying to win.

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Hmmmm. So then we're deciding between ROI and $/hr again.

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We are deciding between money and pride( I have a huge dick and I have to play to win the SNG), I take the first, I suppose you do as well.

[tigerite]

Scuba, the thing is, if it is folded to you the next hand in SB there is nothing the BB will be able to call with, to make your push -EV. Here a push is obviously -EV, he's going to call you.

I have no idea why people always go on about 'playing for first' to take a -EV shot, this is what ICM is meant to model for you, or do people forget that?

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
Can you imagine watching 4 handed at the final table of the WSOP or WPT and seeing (insert favorite poker pro here) in the big blind and folding to a minimum raise from the small blind with A10? Are you trying to win, or finish 3rd? Maybe you will get AK or QQ next round. Probably 94o though. I think you push here. He is probably picking on you with any 2, in which case, what are the odds he has AA, KK, QQ, JJ, 10 10, AK, AQ, or AJ? Much more likely he has j10, A6, K2s, etc. If you want to play it safe, call the bet and fold if you whiff. But I think a push is best, if you're trying to win.

[/ QUOTE ]

You do realise if he has K2s and calls, then all your EV (and his) goes to the other stacks on the table, and loses you money? So this is a nonsense thing to say.

[valenzuela]

We all seem to agree pushing is stupid but I insist calling and pushing any good flop is good enough, we can also push a ragged flop if checked to.
EDIT: Btw I choose money before pride.( Sadly this doesnt go only for poker,the other day I breakdanced for 10 seconds in front of my entire school for a dollar....)

[tigerite]

Yes, this is true. But we would also have to fold the flop if the Villain bets almost any amount (unless the flop is something amazing for us, naturally), even ace high would be somewhat dodgy to call. Can see the arguments for it though yeah.

Of course any sensible Villain will bet any flop and so 66% of the time we're now down 400 chips from what we would have left should we push and lose the next hand..

[curtains]

I would fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]

I would fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nice of you to dig this up after 5 days, lol.

I folded, but as an after the fact hand, I wasn't sure. Regardless, it's a -EV hand if he calls 100% of the time. That's why I now still think it's a fold.

[tigerite]

Well I'd also fold, but I do think it's close between fold and call, push is probably out of the question. He's a donk, donks don't fold.. period.

[Deuce2High]

This is a pretty easy fold for me. And I would also advise against calling to see a flop here (or ever) in situations like this if anyone is considering a line like that.