river

[PokerBob]

pokerstars 5/10 10 handed
no reads.
someone opens in EP....I 3 bet next in with A /images/graemlins/diamond.gifK /images/graemlins/club.gif...folds to BB who calls...EP calls.

Flop 3 ways: K /images/graemlins/diamond.gif4 /images/graemlins/heart.gif6 /images/graemlins/heart.gif

check, check, I bet, both call.

Turn: A /images/graemlins/spade.gif

check, check, I bet, BB folds, EP calls.

river: Q /images/graemlins/diamond.gif
EP bets, I................

I would raise. I think that AQ and KQ are really likely given the action.

[thejameser]

i would raise. if he hit his gutshot or set good for him.

[crunchy1]

I call. He's taken a WA/WB line. On this board he either caught you on the river and he'll 3-bet his better hands or, if he missed, he's probably bet/folding and you're not going to gain anything from a raise anyways.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
I think that AQ and KQ are really likely given the action.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't. KQ gives more action on the flop - especially when he can check raise the BB caller with TPGK. Who c/c the turn and then donks the river with AQ - this hand would more likely either be a turn donk or turn c/r.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think that AQ and KQ are really likely given the action.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't. KQ gives more action on the flop - especially when he can check raise the BB caller with TPGK. Who c/c the turn and then donks the river with AQ - this hand would more likely either be a turn donk or turn c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think if villian is taking a WA/WB type line that he is not going crazy on the flop with KQ. Similarly, if he has AQ, he has to be very much afraid of AK, AA, or KK. IMO the only hand we should really be worried about is QQ, and KQ and AQ are more likly.

[ QUOTE ]
I call. He's taken a WA/WB line. On this board he either caught you on the river and he'll 3-bet his better hands or, if he missed, he's probably bet/folding and you're not going to gain anything from a raise anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]
With that thinking, what hands do you put him on then?

[brettbrettr]

I'd raise and expect to see AQ here a lot of the time. If he 3 bet, I'd make the call and expect to see QQ.

[crunchy1]

[ QUOTE ]
I think if villian is taking a WA/WB type line that he is not going crazy on the flop with KQ. Similarly, if he has AQ, he has to be very much afraid of AK, AA, or KK. IMO the only hand we should really be worried about is QQ, and KQ and AQ are more likly.

[/ QUOTE ]
Ok - I agree with you. But, I'm still advocating calling because I don't think that raising gets us any extra value. Any hand that's ahead 3-bets. Most hands that are behind (including your KQ/AQ) check/call the river if they want to see showdown - OR - bet/fold the river in an effort to not miss value if they just went ahead.

Then again - perhaps if this player IS donking with AQ/KQ we should be raising because if they're dumb enough to donk the river here they're probably also calling the raise.

Perhaps since we're readless - there's not a significant difference in the EV of between calling/raising.

[Entity]

Raise.

[krimson]

No reads, so not sure how accurate this is. But frankly I don't see how QQ or JT can continue in this hand past the turn? I think we're most likely ahead of KQ or AQ and can raise this and get paid off.

Someone said that KQ would make more noise on the flop, but I think that the person holding KQ may have decided to play the flop wa/wb and just c/c, he's either behind AK or ahead of your TT-QQ.

When the river hits, that's too many overcards to expect you to continue betting with something like TT or JJ, so he takes the initiative and bets out.

[ QUOTE ]
No reads, so not sure how accurate this is. But frankly I don't see how QQ or JT can continue in this hand past the turn? I think we're most likely ahead of KQ or AQ and can raise this and get paid off.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed

[shant]

If we can expect a player to be calling down this board and this action with QQ, I don't think we can also expect them to bet/fold KQ or AQ.

This is an interesting hand. The hands that you are worried about are AA,KK, QQ, and J10. The first three seem unlikely since you would have been raised on the flop and/or turn with these hands. J10 is also unlikely since I can't imagine a good player calling three bets with J10. The most likely opponent's hand seems to be a busted heart flush draw. I would raise and call a reraise on the end

[PokerBob]

.....and get 3-bet, is there any value in a call? What do i beat that plays this way often enough to make a call +EV?

[W. Deranged]

Raise it up and call a three-bet. QQ isn't getting to the river often, AA and KK would've likely shown more aggression earlier, and 44, 66, and JT usually aren't open-raising EP (and when they are, it's often from a very laggy player who even in a short amount of time you might have been able to identify).

[jason_t]

Raise.

[Fat Nicky]

[ QUOTE ]
.....and get 3-bet, is there any value in a call? What do i beat that plays this way often enough to make a call +EV?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is difficult to figure out without a proper read. But we do know there are some bad players that will 3-bet with a worse 2-pair her, so I can't see how we can possibly lay this down to a 3-bet

[callmedonnie]

It looks like WA/WB line. What hands are helped by the Queen? Queens and AQ. Given board I think both AQ is more likely, so shouldn't you raise?