JJ - agonizing river fold

[Isura]

Villain is 33/11 over 200 hands. He seems decent. Turn and river are questionable. Should I bet more on the turn? Check/call, block bet, or fold the river? I'll post my thoughts in a bit. Thanks guys.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

SB ($101.40)
BB ($129.25)
Hero ($107.90)
MP ($54.90)
CO ($137.70)
Button ($144.38)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.50.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $4</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Button calls $4, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: ($9.50) Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 8/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $7</font>, Button calls $7.

Turn: ($23.50) Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $12</font>, Button calls $12.

River: ($47.50) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">Button bets $30</font>, Hero folds.

I think this wouldn't be that hard of a fold, it's very possible this guy could be playing the queen I believe by cold calling you. I wouldn't put him on a draw with the bet that he made on the river, it looks to me that he either could've flopped a set on you or very possibly may have the case queens that could spell your doom. KQ and AQ are very possible hands that he could be playing, if not QJ suited and trips up on the turn and finally realizes that his hand is 90% good by the river.

[JustToast]

Doesn't this look like a flush draw for opponent? Obviously he could have a Q but he's awfully passive if that's the case.

I'm making a half-pot blocker on the end and folding to a raise. As played it looks to villain like you were betting on the come and he had the opportunity to steal it regardless of his cards.

[elus2]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this wouldn't be that hard of a fold, it's very possible this guy could be playing the queen I believe by cold calling you. I wouldn't put him on a draw with the bet that he made on the river, it looks to me that he either could've flopped a set on you or very possibly may have the case queens that could spell your doom. KQ and AQ are very possible hands that he could be playing, if not QJ suited and trips up on the turn and finally realizes that his hand is 90% good by the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

villain's hand range easily includes a worse pocket pair or a flush draw. if villain had a draw then he has to bet the river to win the pot.

[ QUOTE ]
I'm making a half-pot blocker on the end and folding to a raise. As played it looks to villain like you were betting on the come and he had the opportunity to steal it regardless of his cards.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'd do the same, but I tend to bet a little smaller, say 1/3 the pot.

[4_2_it]

If villain is decent, his river bet might be a blocker if he holds something like A /images/graemlins/spade.gif8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif. I think I probably make a blocking bet ($20) on the river and fold to a raise.

I might try check/calling the turn in an attempt to represent FPS and more importantly keep the pot size down so my river blocker only needs to be in the $10-$15 range.

[Isura]

Do you guys think I should bet more on the turn?

[Hoopster81]

As long as you bet the turn, I would make exactly the same bet on the river as a blocker.

[Isura]

Thanks for the responses guys. It does seem that villain played the hand like a draw. There aren't that many hands with a Q that he cold calls preflop. Also, I'm thinking my turn bet was small enough so that I gain no new information about his hand when he calls the turn.

I'm still not sure if block bet or check/call is the better river line. Since villain seemed pretty taggish postflop, he would realize that this was a great spot for him to bluff. He showed his 9/images/graemlins/club.gif7/images/graemlins/club.gif and I type "Is that supposed to put me on tilt?" in the chat. /images/graemlins/grin.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif

[arod15]

re-raise that flop. Make it 20 to go. Then you if he comes back over the top you can be lmost 100% sure your beat and toss it. Its essentially the same as calling the turn bet. Make it 20 see where your at and proceed with caution to a call.....

[xorbie]

Seeing as how you don't have a strong hand and you might be put to a tough test on the river, I think checking this turn is the right play.

[Isura]

[ QUOTE ]
Seeing as how you don't have a strong hand and you might be put to a tough test on the river, I think checking this turn is the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. How much of a bet would you call on the turn?

[Malachii]

Half a pot. In my experience people will bet flush draws if you check the turn, but tend to bet them lightly. I agree with Xorbie that checking the turn is the correct play. You must call this river if you're going to check it.

This might get flamed for being "weak," but I c/f the turn most times here. He called a preflop raise without reraising with no other callers, so I figure him for big cards (normally AK, AQ, or KQ). He might have 10-10 or 9-9, but who knows. More times than not he has the queen when he calls the flop bet, I think. And even if he doesn't have the queen, he's probably got a lot of outs. The reality is that your hand is very marginal at this point. You have a caller on the flop who has position on you; there's a queen overcard; and there are two draws (though I would think only the FD is likely). Even if you have the best hand, it's going to be very difficult for you to play it profitably. So I just c/f the turn. No reason to put a lot more money in here.

And I wouldn't feel bad about folding the best hand here either. I couldn't care less. I'm c/f the turn here thinking that I'm folding the best hand probably half the time. But I also fold pocket twos to a preflop raise thinking I'm folding the best hand plenty of times...

[NiR]

i say he is playing a week queen. your check on the river basically told him u dont have it. so he made a bet on river.is he a guy who would call about a pot size bet on flop and pot on turn for a draw?

[NiR]

out of position JJ. i would check/fold it on flop once in awhile. but i like the flop bet. the way u played it, you have to block bet the river.

also if i pot flop, i am check/folding turn.