Does Harry Dan give me odds?

Like most 2+2ers, I'm a winning player at nl, but I suspect most of us learned more than we expected from Harrington's new books. In the shortrun, i think my increased success is largely from "pulling the trigger" sooner and making a little more use of the "first in vigorish".

I've been playing for years, but only recently starting to watch TV poker. I keep seeing Gus Hanson policing the tables with strange calls and sucking out. After seeing him win a few tournaments this way I still wasnt a believer until I read Harrington's book.

It looks like he might be advising a lot more calling than Im usually comfortable with. Looking at my shortrun failures, i keep getting punished for calling out of "odds". Im comfortable looking at these shortrun results because they are more of what I've always seen second hand.

I think part of the problem might be that I mostly just play sit-n-gos where chip values get distorted more than in multis. With chip distortion, the "first in vig" is usually bigger than in multis which is what Harrington was talking about. In any event I think I made a very bad call in this hand and I want to hear what everyone has to say.

Seat 2: anunAx ( $855 )
Seat 3: BlizzardStrm ( $960 )
Seat 4: KingBaldor ( $1690 )
Seat 5: ME ( $1390 )
Seat 6: pavel73 ( $1575 )
Seat 7: ralph64 ( $855 )
Seat 8: BJacko19 ( $800 )
Seat 10: GaneshParens ( $1875 )
Trny:16680243 Level:4
Blinds(50/100)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ME [ Ah Jc ]
>You have options at Table 65755 Table!.
KingBaldor folds.
ME raises [250].
pavel73 folds.
ralph64 is all-In [855]
BJacko19 folds.
GaneshParens folds.
anunAx folds.
BlizzardStrm folds.
ME calls [605].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9s, 6c, Qc ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3c ]
** Dealing River ** [ Td ]
ME shows [ Ah, Jc ] high card ace.
ralph64 shows [ As, Kc ] high card ace.
ralph64 wins 1860 chips from the main pot with high card ace with king kicker.

[tigerite]

Fold preflop

This has nothing to do with odds.

[Exitonly]

er.. fold that instead of raising, but yea, you're getting 2:1 after he pushes, no way you're worse than that vs his 8BB range.

You don't typically hear about 'folding to survive' when theres 8 people left in a SnG.


edit: i change "theres no way you're behidn that range" to, you very well could be behind that range more than 2:1.

But still i think a call, marginally.

[tigerite]

This is true.

Anyway, seeing as you got into this mess, you should only call if he's pushing 66+,AT+ or looser. How likely this is, I cannot tell, that's what reads are for.

[brimstone1]

With 13BB I think this can be a very (VERY) marginal +EV push... otherwise fold, you don't need this pot.

So if you feel you absolutely must get involved with this hand, push.

Betting anything other than all-in certainly isn't my line here.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
With 13BB I think this can be a very (VERY) marginal +EV push... otherwise fold, you don't need this pot.

So if you feel you absolutely must get involved with this hand, push.

Betting anything other than all-in certainly isn't my line here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't like a push here. Not many ranges except where all bar the blinds are very tight works. By very tight I mean 99+, AQ+ in most cases and probably JJ+, AK in some. If you had 300 chips less, then yeah, go for it.

[Exitonly]

yea i just plugged the info into my 'equity calculator' and i think pushing here is abuot +.7BB's

but i'm still not comfortable playing this hand at all, and fold PF.

[tigerite]

[ QUOTE ]
yea i just plugged the info into my 'equity calculator' and i think pushing here is abuot +.7BB's

but i'm still not comfortable playing this hand at all, and fold PF.

[/ QUOTE ]

Um, not sure where you're getting that from. As I said the call ranges for all bar the blinds has to be very tight.

Yeah, I dont know what I was thinking. When it gets late, every once in a while I have a hard time translating percentages into odds which is why I called. I think "odds,fold to survive"

I expect allin in has:
AK,AQ,KK,QQ or JJ about 65% of the time (i win 25%)
a lower pair about 25% (I win 50%)
Ax about 5% (I win 25%)
AA about 1% (I lose)
AJ about 1% (tie)
other 3% (I win 70%)
Its rough, but if its true I win almost 1 in 3.
$1255 in the pot, $605 to call or 3-1

[bennies]

fold preflop

[tigerite]

Again you're using chipEV..

Why..

a lower pair about 25% (I win 50%) WRONG.. 45% I think you will find

[Exitonly]

13 BB stack, 6 people left to act, 1.5 BB in the pot.

If all 6 left will call w/ my 'loose' range of (
55+,A5s+,KJs+,QJs,A6o+,Kqo) which is 24.6% of hands. And AJo has 51.77 equity vs that range. The play would be +.7

change the range to my 'medium' range 66+,A7s+,KJs+,QJs,A9o+
which is 11.6% of hands, and AJ is 46.59% vs them, the play is +0.68

change that to my 'tight' range (99+,AJs+,AQo+ ) or 5.4% of hands, and AJo has 30.26 equity vs that range, and the play is +0.70

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
$1255 in the pot, $605 to call or 3-1

[/ QUOTE ]


Last i checked that's 2:1.

[tigerite]

That's not what I got, but I'll work it out properly later. I put the ranges as JJ+,AK for all bar the button, who has 99+,AQ+ and the two blinds on 22,A2,K7,K2s,QT,Q9s,JTs.

[illegit]

Raise less PF, say to 150-ish. Fold to a push. Or just fold PF to begin with.

EDIT: thought blinds were 25/50. At 50/100 I either open-push or fold. And I don't really like openpushing here.

[Exitonly]

well my simple little spreadsheet don't fancy calculations with different ranges for different players.

And, despite what my spreadsheet says...

I'm with you, folding this PF.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Raise less PF, say to 150-ish. Fold to a push. Or just fold PF to begin with.

[/ QUOTE ]

Blinds are 50/100... his raise was a good amount, if he was going to do so.

Can't loosening a calling range increase our push EV? In this case, once you start adding hands that AJ is a 60:40 favorite against into the calling range, it seems that you are increasing your EV.

I guess my point is that your value doesn't always come from picking up the blinds (which are sort of small in this case). You don't necessarily need very tight ranges for this push to be good. Loose ranges also help.

Say that you push. The most effective calling range for CO might be 5%. If he deviates far enough from that range, in either direction, it can improve the push EV.

[tigerite]

Well yes this is the tricky part though. Because somewhere in the middle the ranges are bad for you. I'm not sure I trust myself to have that good a read on 6 people to act after me, which is the problem.

[Exitonly]

According to my math it's profitable to push into a calling range of all 25% hands, all 11% hand, or all 5% hands...

don'ts ee why it wouldnt be profitable to push into a mix of the 3.


But, my ranges could very well be off.

And i still don't like the push.

[tigerite]

I ran it with all average and all loose ranges on SNGPT, the first was -0.2%, the second exactly 0.0% and so I discounted it, as I wanted at least some edge. So still not sure where you get those ranges from, but oh well /images/graemlins/confused.gif

I know the pf raise was loose but I actually play very tight and assumed that, having only raised pf once before this, that i would get respect. Maybe I would have, if not for the unfortunate timing.


[ QUOTE ]
Again you're using chipEV..

Why..

a lower pair about 25% (I win 50%) WRONG.. 45% I think you will find

[/ QUOTE ]

Why use chipev? because unless your at a turning point in the payout structure, chipev is always the most important piece of information in determining actual ev. Please, tell us what you use, magic 8-balls?

The numbers I gave were generated quickly and the 50% is easier to work with. If you want to pick a battle, the 70% vs "others" was probably too generous, but i was tired when i wrote the post. I also said I lost all hands against aces which I guess you believe. (I win over 8% of these, which you might have pointed out if it supported your case.) Thanks for letting me know how stupid I am. You wouldnt have gotten the point across as well if u hadnt let me know that i was WRONG in caps. Thanks for tearing me a new one.

[splashpot]

WTF is Harry Dan?

[tigerite]

No, actually ICM is always the most important, unless you are heads up which is purely chipEV.

[SonnyJay]

First, be careful thinking
[ QUOTE ]
having only raised pf once before this, that i would get respect

[/ QUOTE ]
I seriously doubt that they remember this.

Second, read some threads on ICM. Even though you won't be doing exact ICM calculations at the table, understanding the underlying principle of your equity in the prize pool and how that changes with your stack size is very important.

I don't have any threads in particular, but in the FAQ there's a link to an ICM calculator that provides some information.

-SonnyJay