Play a Hand With the Masters #2 River

[Lloyd]

This is Part Five of our second "Play a Hand with the Masters". If you haven't already contributed to Part One (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3643926&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=1#Post3643935), Part Two (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3652595&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=&vc=#Post3652595), Part Three (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3659518&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=&vc=1), and Part Four (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Number=3670596&page=0&view=colla psed&sb=5&o=14&fpart=&vc=#Post3670596) you should do so first.

Setup
$100+9 Party Poker MTT
Blinds 50/100
Hero is Gigabet
No strong read on villain

Stacks

Hero: t2670
Villain: 2915

Pre-Flop
Hero is dealt A/images/graemlins/heart.gif K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

UTG folds. Hero raises to t275. All fold to the BB who calls.

Flop
Pot: t600

Flop: J/images/graemlins/spade.gif A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif K/images/graemlins/club.gif

BB checks. Hero bets t300. BB raises to t600. Hero calls t300.

Turn
Pot: t1800

Turn: 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB bets t800. Hero calls t800.

River
Pot: t3400

River: J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif

BB checks. Action is on the hero.

Do you check or bet? If you bet, how much and why?

[curtains]

Yes I would move allin. It's not possible for our opponent to have QTo and decide to check the river unless he's a bad player, because he knows we will bet every single hand that beats him and check some that don't, yet call with almost everything.

Basically when the pot is this huge, our opponent will bet any hand that stands to be the best, because he knows we are pot committed. It's very difficult to put them on a hand that can beat AK here.

[Roman]

Mooooooooo donk has like Ax or KQ

[Pat Southern]

Obviously any bet will commit us, and with the size of the pot I can't imagine any other bet than allin. So the question is if there is value in betting. We are not going to get a better hand to fold, every full house, flush (although QTd is the only possible flush hand I see), straight is calling us, so we have no folding equity. Since we can't be raised after this bet it only needs to win 51% of the time that it is called to be +EV. The range of calling hands I would put BB on (that have made it this far) would be AJ, KJ, QT, JJ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AT. Although I dont see villian checking the river with a full house, so I'd eliminate JJ, KK, AA, AJ, KJ from his calling range. That leaves QT vs AQ, AT and AK is a chop. Theres 16 ways to make QT and 16 ways to make AQ or AT. So that leads me to the conclusion that it really doesnt matter either way in terms of chipEV, but throwing in the possibility that he is getting cute with a FH, and if a decision is neutral I'm taking the one that leaves me with some chips, I check behind.

[curtains]

I think there is very little chance that QT checks the river.

[KneeCo]

Fantastic, we've turned down value twice in this hand now and now we have to deal with a serious scare card. We no longer beat KJ, AJ, QJ, TJ, or, of course, 2 diamonds.

The good news is, villain checked.

From the villain's perspective, I can't imagine how Hero seems anything but weak at this point so this seems like a very strange place to go for a check raise (unless he reads Hero as being so weak, he doesn't see himself getting money out of him on the river unless it is on a bluff).

Villain may well be checking with a weak flush which beats us, or A10 which we beat handily. However, I don't know, because Hero has done a bad job of applying the kind of pressure that makes a villain reveal his holdings.

I check here. If I lost and got sucked out on or won but missed some value, I have no one to blame but myself.
If I lost and was beat the whole way, I still don't see that as vindicating the way the hand was played, Hero had position and a good hand, but let the villain take the driver's seat the whole way.

I don't think we can bluff out a hand that beats us, or get a hand to call us that we have beat with a value bet. I check and am happy if we win.

[KingDan]

I push.

Big Pot, I assume he calls with a huge range including weak aces hoping that he now chops.

I'm guessing two diamonds, a straight, or a jack push here thinking the same thing (big pot other guy must call)

I check behind. Although the J is unlikely to have helped villian as he would have bet it, there is still a chance that he might feel he is inducing a bet from us by checking. The J of diamonds is one of the worst cards for our hand. The pot is huge already, we are WAWB, just check and see.

Was about to write "easy push" when I decided to think about it. Let's say villain calls a push here with AQ (8), AT (8), AJ (4), KJ (6), QJs (2)(to allow for the chance that villain played this oddly), TQ (16), KQs (2)(again, to allow for weird villain), AA(1),KK(1),JJ(1). That means we're behind his calling range and should check /images/graemlins/confused.gif.

Anyone got a range that calls us here that we beat? Do you think villain has KQ or KT frequently enough to make a push here profitable?

Edit: I forgot the fact hat villain checked. I doubt he does this with a boat or a straight. I push.

[Sam T.]

This guy has played it strangely throughout, so I don't know what to make of this check. Trips suddenly scared of the flush? (JT, maybe?) A slow-played str8 scared of the flush? This card certianly made him sad.

The question is whether we have any FE, becasue I can't believe that we're still ahead. (What exaclty are we ahead of at this point? AQ, AT, QQ, TT...) Of course he only has to fold 1/3 or so of the time for this to be a good push, so MOOOOO!

[curtains]

No halfway reasonable opponent would check the river to induce a bet when you have 900 chips left and the pot contains about 3500-4000!!

I pushed a long long time ago.

I think the str8 might check.

Theres little chance of him folding to your push and the way the hand has played out im not so sure we have the best hand anymore so I dont want to value bet.

[curtains]

Yeah and why exactly would the straight check? It makes absolutely zero sense to check a straight on the river because the straight knows we would have called with many worse hands and that we will bet every single better hand after their check.

If your opponent checks QT there with the intention of calling, then they are just a total idiot. I'm sorry I'm not playing this hand under the assumption that my opponent is this bad at poker, if you want to then be my guest.

[ QUOTE ]
I pushed a long long time ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lol... a lot of us did. What would you do now?

I think that by this point I am just too confused. In the hand, I'd probably push with top two pair. However, thinking about it, I don't think that he calls with much that we have beat, maybe AQ/T. KJ, QT, AJ are also likely, so I probably check behind. I've still got enough chips to come back. I don't think that he calls with anything that we beat except AQ/T. I think that he too often has us beat. However, my gut says KQ or AQ.

Will

I possibly break down in tears. Maybe punch the wall. Seriously though, I push here yet again, villain checking with intention to call is pretty bad play on his part with anything he is willing to call with that he thinks may be good here, considering the pot size and how much we have left. However, I wouldn't exactly be the least bit surprised if we WERE behind here, perhaps getting sucked out on on the river, which is irrelevant. I would love to see commentary and thought process on each street from giga, but I think calling on the turn was pretty bad if we were going to get our chips in on any river. Villain was just as committed to the pot after his bet on turn as he was after seeing river for no additional price, so there was no real reason not to push the turn.

[ZeeJustin]

His river check means we have him beat, so move all-in. Man, I really don't like how this hand was played at all.

Preflop raise was fine, flop bet was a little small, but ok, hero really should have moved in after the check raise, and if that doesn't happen, definately on the turn.

[CardSharpCook]

It is an interesting situation.

You: 1000
BB: 1250
Pot: 3400

check and win, 4400. Check and lose 1000. Push and get called, 5400, push and lose, 0. So... how much should we risk for a possible 22% gain in stack size? I'm always a fan of value betting to death, but I think this is a situation to check down. What hands does he check here with? QJ, JT seem like very viable options. QT, not so much because he SHOULD push that because anything that beats QT WILL push, but many other hands call a push from QT. Really, I only see QJ, JT and a variety of 2nd best hands checking here. So, what second best hands can call here? AX seems like the only one to me. That's not that many hands. Does Ax play like this on earlier streets though? Actaully, I believe drawing hands like QJ and JT play it like this more often than Ax. So... based solely on intuition and thought (no actual math), I give us about 55% equity here vs. a hand that calls us. I don't think that is enough in this situation where it is a 25% gain or 100% loss. I check this down and curse my W/T instincts when he turns over AT.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
I check behind. Although the J is unlikely to have helped villian as he would have bet it, there is still a chance that he might feel he is inducing a bet from us by checking. The J of diamonds is one of the worst cards for our hand. The pot is huge already, we are WAWB, just check and see.

[/ QUOTE ]

on the river, you are always WAWB

[McMelchior]

We've been a calling station all along since the flop, so there's really no reason villian wouldn't bet into us with a winning hand here, considering the pot odds would be out of this world had he bet.

But the river J is really bad news. AJ and KJ that we potentially could have been ahead of just made it. QT is not going to fold to a bet here.

The only hand we have a potential for folding here is another AK. And even that is doubtful.

I guess I'm just not sofisticated enough to understand the depths of this hand. But at this point we're left with less than 1,000 in chips, and that's just not good enough to continue on. We just need to win 25% of the times to make this a correct push. So that's what I'm going to do, in the faint hope of making villain fold AK.

Best,

McMelchior (Johan)

I'm going to advocate checking back here:

a. Giga has no read on villain, so villain may very well be either a super tricky player OR just not a good one.

b. 900 chips left if you check back. at 25/50 blinds, you still have the opportunity to do some manuevering on a flop or two. Double up once or go on a mini-rush, and you still have a chance.

c. I believe that the only way our villain calls an all-in is if he hit his boat with AJ OR if he was just uber dumb and hit a set with KJ. Giga has very little to gain here - about a 30% chance of a call with his hand being best and a 75 to 80% chance of losing the hand if it is not best (I'll give 20% benefit of doubt that Villain has KJ and is now afraid of the flush).

4. If Villain was so committed, he would probably fire away beforehand anyway. Maybe he'd try to use the river J as a scare card against Giga, hope that Giga is tight/weak enough to fold the best hand in the eye of a potential flush and/or full house. Checking here is basically saying that he is giving up the hand OR that he is trapping Giga.

Check the sucker down. If you have the best hand, take the nice pot and reverse your style of play the next time you hit soemthing similiar.

[Roman]

this hand sucked imo, ill look for one for next week to make this a little more interesting.

[curtains]

Ok maybe it sucked, but Gigabet played every street completely different than almost every pro here would have played it. Either Giga played it like a moron, or it's at least somewhat interesting.

Stop insulting the hand for being boring and at least insult Gigabet for playing it strangely or something, which is what everyone is basically doing when they say this hand is boring and obvious and have suggested a different course of action than the hero on every street.

[Roman]

I dont think it makes much of a difference anyway *yawn*.

[EverettKings]

In the words of strassa2, "*yawn*, push"

He obviously would expect a call if he put us all in, so by checking he obviously isn't sure if he's ahead (in other words, he can't beat AK). But he will most definitely be calling with anything half decent when we bet. Checking is awful.

Everett

[Lloyd]

[ QUOTE ]

Ok maybe it sucked, but Gigabet played every street completely different than almost every pro here would have played it. Either Giga played it like a moron, or it's at least somewhat interesting.

Stop insulting the hand for being boring and at least insult Gigabet for playing it strangely or something, which is what everyone is basically doing when they say this hand is boring and obvious and have suggested a different course of action than the hero on every street.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you. I've been biting my tounge but what you have said is so right on. The reality is that Gigabet is one of the top players around (not just in 2+2 but anywhere). The fact that this hand was played so differently than what most people recommend should suggest that there is something more to it. Perhaps, just perhaps, there are alternative ways to playing (and thinking about) what many people consider a routine hand.

[TomHimself]

[ QUOTE ]
Checking is awful.


[/ QUOTE ] how so?
the only hands we are beating now are AT,AQ,KT,KQ, and chop with AK but villian did play the hand very strange with his river check so maybe he is weak and will call a push when we have him beat. i wouldve pushed the turn FWIW.

edit-villian could have A9 OR A8 that we have beat or maybe A7 and he got counterfeited on river

he probaly had A7

[Jman28]

I was right (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3671096&page=1&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1)

Now you can push though.

[locutus2002]

Terrible check by villain. Hero value bets T500.

The time for slowplaying is over, so villain has telegrahed that he does not have:
A full house
A flush
A str8 - because AK,AQ is definitely in hero's range and hero will pay off.
A set - because AK,AQ is definitely in hero's range and hero will pay off.
AK - because AK,AQ is definitely in hero's range and AQ will pay off.

That leaves villain with AQ,AT,KQ,and a weak ace. I think villain has AQ as he has been playing it like it might have been the best hand all along.

Hero is ahead. Given the huge number of hands that beat villain, and the fact that hero has shown strength throughout the hand, villain probably has expectations of only splitting the pot in the best case, and will NOT call a push by hero. Then again the check on the river is so terrible anything is possible.

Villain has T1340 chips left. He will call T500 getting ~4:1 to split the pot and win ~T2000. He will also have a workable short stack with T840 left if he loses.

[Roman]

my point is that in most cases it doesnt matter exactly what variation of possible lines hero takes after the flop, the end result will most likely be the same.

[the shadow]

I called the turn (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showthreaded.php?Cat=&Number=3675291&page=0&view=c ollapsed&sb=5&o=14&vc=1) with the intention of checking/calling the river, so I check.

The Shadow

[TomHimself]

locutus i really dont understand alot of ur points in some of ur posts, t500 and allin are almsot identical, if villian is going to call 500 he will call allin

[bennies]

allin


on a side note, I imagine it is difficult to find hands with decisions on every street with this shallow stacks, 27bb's. Maybe people critisizing this hand are simply looking for a deeper stack hand?

I, for one, have enjoyed this hand. Most tourneys, online or not, quickly become short stacked games and I welcome analysis of these situations.

[locutus2002]

I believe that villain's check is the equivalent to surrendering the hand, because he cannot do better than split the pot.

If hero pushes then villain will get 2.4:1 to call T900 and win T2150 (1/2 the pot). He will have T440 left, an unworkable stack.

If hero bets T500 then villain will get 3.9:1 to call T500 to win T1950 (1/2 the pot), and have T840 left. A short stack with a little game left.


I see a big difference from villain's point of view, but you may be right about the T500 vs. T900.

[kuro]

I'd push. If a weak ace calls thinking he'll chop then great, if villain makes a Helmuthian lays down with AK or the straight because he thinks he's beat to a flush/boat then fabulous.

[Guelph]

Wow, poker would be so much easier if they let us un-push twice.

Since I got to do that here, I check, and expect to be pushing my ~800 left again in the next few hands.

It's a trap ! /images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif
It's a trap ! /images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif
It's a trap ! /images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif
It's a trap ! /images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif
It's a trap ! /images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif
It's a trap ! /images/graemlins/ooo.gif /images/graemlins/mad.gif /images/graemlins/confused.gif /images/graemlins/frown.gif

/images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif

I check.

[Exitonly]

Well finally Gigabet does something that i wouldn't have done..
I think i check behind here, just doestn look like we're going to end up with the best hand often enough. And the hands that fold to this bet we have beat anyway.

[mts]

push allin obviously, not that it value bets but it gets a few hands that would have us beat that would like to check it down to fold. And all the other pair + straight draw hands that we might chop or beat. Plus, its nice not showing down a hand... i hate showing my hands. I dont think he has a hand where he check/calls and we lose.

this is extremely poorly worded. someone help me with my points? lol

[grandgnu]

Hmmm......an interesting situation. Villian has been betting the whole way, now he's checking? My first instinct was to check behind and hope for the best.

But, since he's been betting the whole way and we've been calling, why all of a sudden the check? Is he figuring we'll sense weakness and push all-in here, so he can trap us with the nuts?

If Villian is on A/K or Q/10, the Jack on the river would have certainly scared him, especially with how we've played the hand. As such, he MIGHT fold to our push, allowing us to scoop a pot that we either would've split or lost completely.

But then again, we still have enough chips at this blind level that if we check and lose, we can continue playing on.

So you have to consider that the pot is huge and there's something to be said for getting all those chips and increasing our stack.

But, if we push and get called and lose, then we're out of the tournament and we can't have any further opportunities to continue on.

While it could be a trap, I honestly believe our opponent is scared of the Jack and the diamond on the river. So a push is our best option to take it down against hands that might tie or beat us.

But for those who wish to survive, checking behind and hoping we're ahead of a weaker Ace isn't terrible, it keeps us in the game.

I think we should push all in here. We've shown plenty of willingness to call down so it's most likely that a straight or FH would've pushed on the river expecting us to call. Unless villian has a straight and is afraid of the FH & flush draws but that seems unlikely.

With the river check, I'm certain we're either ahead here or tied. AQ, AT, KQ are possible holdings, but I think it's more likely that the villain has AK also.

If we check here, we either win the pot or chop it. If we push, we have a better chance at taking down the whole pot. So I think we should push.

[juris]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ok maybe it sucked, but Gigabet played every street completely different than almost every pro here would have played it. Either Giga played it like a moron, or it's at least somewhat interesting.

Stop insulting the hand for being boring and at least insult Gigabet for playing it strangely or something, which is what everyone is basically doing when they say this hand is boring and obvious and have suggested a different course of action than the hero on every street.

[/ QUOTE ]
Thank you. I've been biting my tounge but what you have said is so right on. The reality is that Gigabet is one of the top players around (not just in 2+2 but anywhere). The fact that this hand was played so differently than what most people recommend should suggest that there is something more to it. Perhaps, just perhaps, there are alternative ways to playing (and thinking about) what many people consider a routine hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

Lloyd you don't get enough credit for this idea and your efforts. Kudos and keep it up. I am always intrigued more by plays that go against what seems common sense. It is the best way to help me actually (GASP) think about my game.

[CardSharpCook]

Ok, put yourself in villian's shoes. What hands are you calling with on the river? Personally, I am calling with any ace given that I'll have AAJJK. I am folding every other pair. What hands am I checking? Well, I'm not checking if I have 3 of a kind or more. Why? Because if Hero has a hand better than 3of a kind, he WILL go AI if I check, but he has to call with a couple hands less than 3ok. However, I am not all villians. Many villians are checking here with 3ok because they just made their hand after bluffing the whole way. All of a sudden they need to reevaluate whether or not 3ok is a good hand. I mean, what has hero been calling with? He's gotta be thinking, "ok, either Gigabet just made his boat, or he's got nothing." Now, if he thinks this through, he bets it. But checking the jack is a natural impulse for many players. I said it earlier, but no one noticed or commented, and I think it merits thought. The risk/reward just isn't right. The risk is your last 1K chips. The reward is a 22% gain in chips. That is not a good deal.

[Ryendal]

Curtain's line

[rbenuck4]

I think this is a clear check. The pot is big enough right now and if this was a ring game, then there might be a value bet that we should discuss, but since this is a tournament and the chips you win are less important than the chips you lose, I think it is imperative to save your last T1000 just in case villain does have you beat. Bringing your stack up to 5500 instead of 4500 is not as important as staying alive, especially since the blinds are still relatively low and even if you lose this hand you still have ok chips.

In addition, there are very few hands that you have beat where he will call you (Ax is the only one that comes to mind), however there are a lot of hands that have you beat at this point (Q10, any jack, any two diamonds). My guess is that we are splitting this pot with villain as it looks like he has AK and that Jd scared him just as much as it should scare us. However, there is no need to bet anything here because he is calling anyway with AK (pot is too big) and obviously calling with anything better than that.

[SCfuji]

thats what i wanted to do /images/graemlins/frown.gif. pots big enough.

[fnurt]

[ QUOTE ]

No halfway reasonable opponent would check the river to induce a bet when you have 900 chips left and the pot contains about 3500-4000!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to agree with this. Despite the fact that the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif completes a lot of hands, it's really hard to imagine him checking any of them.

I check, per FTOP...if you bet and are beat he will call, if you are ahead he will fold.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

No halfway reasonable opponent would check the river to induce a bet when you have 900 chips left and the pot contains about 3500-4000!!

[/ QUOTE ]

I have to agree with this. Despite the fact that the J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif completes a lot of hands, it's really hard to imagine him checking any of them.

[/ QUOTE ]

And if he's sitting on:

1. Straight
2. Flush
3. Trips

He may be worried that we have a hand that beats either one of those.

if he's on Trips, he may think we have a straight or hit our flush.

If he's on a straight, he may be concerned that we just boated or made our flush.

If he's on the flush, now he's concerned about the full house possibility.

I understand everyone saying to check it down and save the 1K chips just in case, so we can mount a comeback. But I think a push here gives us a chance to push out hands that might beat or tie us.

I don't remember exactly how many chips were in the pot, let's say 4500 or so? If that's the case, we have to win 1 in 4.5 times when we push here to make it worth our bet, right?

I don't believe villian is trapping in this spot, he's been betting the whole way and a scary card hits the river and he checks. Just doesn't add up.

I don't like the way this hand was played, perhaps Gigabet was trying to maximize the amount of chips that got into the pot. Getting a large stack allows you to do things you can't do with a medium or short stack, and that's how you win tournaments.

[beenben]

I smell a check - raise. I narrow the possible hands to A-J and JJ and I check.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
I smell a check - raise. I narrow the possible hands to A-J and JJ and I check.

[/ QUOTE ]

There aren't enough chips for a check-raise against us. If we bet 500 and he check-raises, there's no way we're folding.

If we make any bet when we're checked to, it must be all-in (unless we believe he is on A/Q or A/10 and will call the 500)

So villian really doesn't have much chance of a check-raise, not one that will cause us to fold and let him take down the pot without a showdown. No matter what, there will be a showdown on this hand.

[Exitonly]

All those examples of hands that villain could be scared of, are the same reasons i'm checking it down.. he's not going to fold those hands for an extra 900/100 into that pot.

Better hands call, and worse hands probably call too.. but i dont think the risk is worth the reward.

[curtains]

Yes but unless our opponent is a total moron, there is a zero percent chance that they can beat our hand. CardSharp said that he would call with any ace but fold anything worse, but okay anyone like him would obviously bet the river if they could beat AK. Anyone whom we believe might be capable of checking the river with a hand better than AK, is also capable of calling with worse than an ace IMO.

[MrMoo]

My first instinct, check behind.

After reading the replies, I push. Curtains made a lot of great points and changed my mind.

[Cactus Jack]

[ QUOTE ]
I said it earlier, but no one noticed or commented, and I think it merits thought. The risk/reward just isn't right. The risk is your last 1K chips. The reward is a 22% gain in chips. That is not a good deal.

[/ QUOTE ]

I noticed, and this is my first time able to comment. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

Exactly. How many times have I gone broke on 2 pair? A lot, sadly enough. I'm not going broke on this one, at this point. (Probably would have, since I would be all in at this point and ready to type all kinds of nasty things at the donkey who called my all in with a far inferior hand.)

There's no point at all in betting, now. He's been playing this every street. He's got something, although not a flush as the check probably means he's scared of the flush. He may also have a boat or straight. Don't think because he didn't value bet he doesn't have the best hand. If you've been paying attention all the time you've been playing poker, not value betting the river is the mistake less-experienced players make most often. Their courage fails them at the critical moment. This may be the case here. (The other is to push all their chips in the moment they realize they've got the best hand after all.)

He's not going to fold to an all in, that's for certain. He may have the second best hand, which is not for certain. It's a big pot I'd be happy to win. I've got 900 chips left, for which I'd be happy to still have should he showdown the winner. Either way, I'm still in the tournament. Check it down, win or lose, I'm happy.

You guys sure are in a hurry to go broke. I'm sure this is the lesson of this hand.

CJ

[pfkaok]

[ QUOTE ]
Preflop raise was fine, flop bet was a little small, but ok, hero really should have moved in after the check raise, and if that doesn't happen, definately on the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

exactly my thoughts. with no read on the villian we can't assume he has us beat on the flop. this is an awful flop to slowplay, as so many cards can come that will either outdraw us, or kill the action. and pushing on the flop isn't much of an overbet, so we'll get called by tons of hands by an unknown party $100 player.

[Exitonly]

look at the math i did for the flop, point out where you think i went wrong, ,because with what i showed, a call was more profitable.

[pfkaok]

ok. cool. just looked at that post. i had just jumped into this hand on the river here, and hadn't yet looked at the other threads. and as soon as i read the hand i was like wtf... how is this hand played by gig? i've never played with, or even seen him play. but from his posts, and what i've heard of him it seemed crazy to me that he'd play it this way.

anyways, i just looked over your math, which i really enjoy seeing it written out like that. i'm very math-oriented, and pretty good at doin the numbers quick in my head, but unfortunately i'm not rainman and cna't do the weighted probs in my head at the table. so its nice to see the EVs for stuff like that.

as far as the numbers though, i didn't have the time to redo all the ranges and check again. but i think you might be underestimating the times he'll call your push with weaker hands on the flop. like if he's an unkown, and you're gig, you gotta think its pretty likely that he's not very good since you probably know a lot of the better players. so an unkown at party in my experience will very liklely call the flop push with a weak A. also with a pair +gutshot he'll likely call like KQ, or TT.. just thinking that he has more outs than he really does, or if he's dumb not even thinking about outs and odds. also i think you might have made his CR range too tight, as party donks will use the min CR as a bluff WAY more than you'd think. and a lot of times the bluff still has 4 outs on you and you won't know if they hit. its kinda like how suprisingly often you see people minreraise resteal preflop with odd hands. you think "they gotta have AA to do that, right?". but then they're so clever that they mix it up, and do it with tons of other hands besides AA so you can't read them.

[adanthar]

*Having played the hand this way*, this is a check, expecting to lose to QT, and here is why:

You got minraised on an AKJ flop with top two. I push here, but Gigabet called, probably because among other things, he is a better hand reader and expects to gain more information on the turn than I do even at the cost of losing some value vs. worse hands. Fine.

You then get bet into *for half of your stack* on the turn. Again, I personally would push here. If Gigabet didn't, though, it's because he suspects he is behind. Think about it: every 2 pair hand and even most of the weak aces call a turn push getting a bazillion to one, so if you were gonna value put more chips in, that was the street.

So the river is a flush card that makes Hero a full house and the villain checks. What does he put Hero on? He knows the board hit him, probably hard, and it's quite possible he just made a boat as well as a flush (remember, Hero just called a turn bet, getting odds to draw to one.) But the turn was a milking bet, so Villain's hand is pretty strong vs. that board.

So Villain's hand does not beat a flush. It almost certainly, however, beats top 2 pair, the lone exception being AQ. Like I said, I check, and like I said, I expect to lose to QT.

But I push on the flop and definitely on the turn and lose to QT two streets ago.

[grandgnu]

[ QUOTE ]
So Villain's hand does not beat a flush. It almost certainly, however, beats top 2 pair, the lone exception being AQ. Like I said, I check, and like I said, I expect to lose to QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you are certain that villian is on the straight, and is scared of the flush and the boat, why check and allow him to take it down? You're risking about 1K chips to win 4500 from what I recall. So he just has to lay down 1 time in 4.5 tries for this to be the right play.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
So if you are certain that villian is on the straight, and is scared of the flush and the boat, why check and allow him to take it down? You're risking about 1K chips to win 4500 from what I recall. So he just has to lay down 1 time in 4.5 tries for this to be the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villain folds a straight in online poker 1 time in 1237374387849127374. Give or take one.

[SossMan]

[ QUOTE ]
*Having played the hand this way*, this is a check, expecting to lose to QT, and here is why:

You got minraised on an AKJ flop with top two. I push here, but Gigabet called, probably because among other things, he is a better hand reader and expects to gain more information on the turn than I do even at the cost of losing some value vs. worse hands. Fine.

You then get bet into *for half of your stack* on the turn. Again, I personally would push here. If Gigabet didn't, though, it's because he suspects he is behind. Think about it: every 2 pair hand and even most of the weak aces call a turn push getting a bazillion to one, so if you were gonna value put more chips in, that was the street.

So the river is a flush card that makes Hero a full house and the villain checks. What does he put Hero on? He knows the board hit him, probably hard, and it's quite possible he just made a boat as well as a flush (remember, Hero just called a turn bet, getting odds to draw to one.) But the turn was a milking bet, so Villain's hand is pretty strong vs. that board.

So Villain's hand does not beat a flush. It almost certainly, however, beats top 2 pair, the lone exception being AQ. Like I said, I check, and like I said, I expect to lose to QT.

But I push on the flop and definitely on the turn and lose to QT two streets ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

that actually sounds about right. I think I check here now too.

With his check on the river I really feel that the BB has AK, AQ, or AT. He's been betting down feeling like he may have the best hand but he also figured he had outs to make a better hand.

The interesting thing is that if he also holds AK here then our smooth call of the turn was actually a great play. I think there is a good chance if we fire at the river he may laydown all three of these as he really can't feel like he beats anything here. Yes the pot is huge but he still has 12BBs behind, which means he can still get away and have chips to play.

If he has AK and we push here, then he can't figure it to be good anymore as any hand he beats would check behind. This could be an example of having KQJT on the board at the turn with no flush yet and holding an ace against an opponent we also are pretty sure has the ace. Instead of just pushing the turn and splitting we might as well at least wait til the river and if the board pairs then push in the off chance that he folds being afraid of us having a boat. Is it likely he folds the straight now? Probably not but there is a better chance, even if small, that he might and since he wasn't folding the nuts on the turn we would lose nothing taking a shot here.

[curtains]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So Villain's hand does not beat a flush. It almost certainly, however, beats top 2 pair, the lone exception being AQ. Like I said, I check, and like I said, I expect to lose to QT.

[/ QUOTE ]

So if you are certain that villian is on the straight, and is scared of the flush and the boat, why check and allow him to take it down? You're risking about 1K chips to win 4500 from what I recall. So he just has to lay down 1 time in 4.5 tries for this to be the right play.

[/ QUOTE ]

Villian will never fold a straight.

Also if villian checked the river with a straight I really don't see why we even bother to apply logic to his actions, because checking the river with QT is just terrible and devoid of merit.

I mean there are a lot of bad players on PartyPoker, but we haven't played this hand as though we are facing one of the biggest idiots in the world. Checking the river with QT makes our opponent a total donk idiot. It goes completely against any kind of poker theory. If my opponent is willing to play that stupidly, then hes going to get all my chips when I move allin for my last 990 (Which would of course been received if he had just moved allin on the river like a normal person).

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Also if villian checked the river with a straight I really don't see why we even bother to apply logic to his actions, because checking the river with QT is just terrible and devoid of merit.

[/ QUOTE ]

Well, in theory, there are plenty of Party donks that will 'slowplay' a monster this way through the turn, as well as plenty of donks that are terrified when a bad card hits and check the second nuts. So the fact that he checked the river with QT does not mean he's a giant idiot, it just means he's a regular idiot. If you had some sort of clue that you were behind and didn't push the turn, the river changes little to nothing.

However, this relies entirely on you having enough of a read or a hunch not to push the turn.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
*Having played the hand this way*, this is a check, expecting to lose to QT, and here is why:

You got minraised on an AKJ flop with top two. I push here, but Gigabet called, probably because among other things, he is a better hand reader and expects to gain more information on the turn than I do even at the cost of losing some value vs. worse hands. Fine.

You then get bet into *for half of your stack* on the turn. Again, I personally would push here. If Gigabet didn't, though, it's because he suspects he is behind. Think about it: every 2 pair hand and even most of the weak aces call a turn push getting a bazillion to one, so if you were gonna value put more chips in, that was the street.

So the river is a flush card that makes Hero a full house and the villain checks. What does he put Hero on? He knows the board hit him, probably hard, and it's quite possible he just made a boat as well as a flush (remember, Hero just called a turn bet, getting odds to draw to one.) But the turn was a milking bet, so Villain's hand is pretty strong vs. that board.

So Villain's hand does not beat a flush. It almost certainly, however, beats top 2 pair, the lone exception being AQ. Like I said, I check, and like I said, I expect to lose to QT.

But I push on the flop and definitely on the turn and lose to QT two streets ago.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why would you call the turn and check the river? Why not just fold the turn if you're so sure you're behind? You don't have odds to draw to 4 outs.

[adanthar]

There's a combo of 'ahead vs. behind' equity with which you have odds to call the turn but not to bet the river, because all of the hands you were ahead of filled up (and the fact he checked means he doesn't have them, but that just leaves the ones you are behind).

edit: But I wouldn't have put him on exactly that range of probabilities and just pushed the turn.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
There's a combo of 'ahead vs. behind' equity with which you have odds to call the turn but not to bet the river, because all of the hands you were ahead of filled up (and the fact he checked means he doesn't have them, but that just leaves the ones you are behind).

edit: But I wouldn't have put him on exactly that range of probabilities and just pushed the turn.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm kind of confused.

When he bets the turn, you think you're ahead, yes? You said you would push the turn so you're obviously ready to go to town with this hand.

But what on earth changes on the river? Few hands in his range improved, and he leads all in with them 99% of the time. Do you think that a worse hand would have called the turn but not the river? I can't think of any hand that would do that.

I mean, if your chips were good enough to go in on the turn then they're good enough to go in when checked to on the river.

If I'm missing your point, please expound a bit.

Everett

[adanthar]

*I* would put him on range X and push the turn.

Gigabet apparently put him on range Y. Vs. range Y, he is ahead enough to try to show the hand down, but not enough to put in an additional 800 chips.

Almost all of the hands in range Y that Gigabet was ahead of on the turn filled up on the river. Villain did not bet, so he has none of those, leaving, basically, QT and the very very rare AQ/lesser ace.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
Almost all of the hands in range Y that Gigabet was ahead of on the turn filled up on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

And those hands CHECKED?

[adanthar]

see edit

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
see edit

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I understand that you would push the turn. But GIVEN that you got to the river how Giga did, I'm saying you cant check behind.

Even if Gigabet has more of a read etc etc and is a bit speculative heading into the river, the check dispells all of my worries about being behind there. This is a party 100er, not Danny N playing Phil Ivey and having a sick read that a river bet will fold him out but a check will induce a bet.

I also get my money in before the river FWIW.

Everett

[adanthar]

OK. Given you put him on range Y and only called the turn, what hands that checked are you now ahead of?

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
OK. Given you put him on range Y and only called the turn, what hands that checked are you now ahead of?

[/ QUOTE ]

Well I have him on range Z. Just because Giga took this line because he had villain on range Y does not make range Y any more correct. Based on the villain's action, which is the only information available to both me and Giga, I could see him having Ax, KQ/KT, and a small chance of QJ/JT/QT.

IMO the only thing that can make a push incorrect here is a read on the villain, which we do not have. OK sure maybe he had QT in this particular hand and we're supposed to OOOH and AAAH at Giga's read but the vast majority of the time this hand goes down against a party 100er pushing is correct. So is getting the money in sooner.

Everett

[CardSharpCook]

[ QUOTE ]
OK. Given you put him on range Y and only called the turn, what hands that checked are you now ahead of?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's my problem. How much are willing to hope he has a lousy ace?

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I have him on range Z. Just because Giga took this line because he had villain on range Y does not make range Y any more correct. Based on the villain's action, which is the only information available to both me and Giga

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing Gigabet is doing in this hand that you are not doing is trusting his turn read, range Y, enough so that the river check changes nothing at all.

[EverettKings]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Well I have him on range Z. Just because Giga took this line because he had villain on range Y does not make range Y any more correct. Based on the villain's action, which is the only information available to both me and Giga

[/ QUOTE ]

The only thing Gigabet is doing in this hand that you are not doing is trusting his turn read, range Y, enough so that the river check changes nothing at all.

[/ QUOTE ]

I also was trusting my turn read, which told me to jam. I see your point, that if your read tells you to call the turn then yes I guess you should check the river. But I disagree with that read. So on the turn and river I'm going to be telling you to jam it in there, because that's my read and I'm standing by it.

I really want to see more justification for having a read that would make someone take this line though. I haven't seen anyone be in favor of it except for Giga himself. I just think he's getting a little TOO fancy here. Lloyd, let's see this "master" analysis.

Everett

[locutus2002]

I think the point of this hand is Way ahead way behind.

And the takeaway is that villain will fold to a:
push on the flop
push on the turn
push on the river (difficult laydown)

When he is behind.

Every push is poor in my opinion, and everyone is assuming that villain will call when he is behind.

.

[Nikanoru]

I think the point of the hand is just that people are going broke on their middling strong hands like this. The way our opponent bets is representing a hand that is either much stronger or a hand that is worse but is willing to keep betting. If we push before the river, we are losing value in a lot of ways: We lose the most when we're behind(and we bust out, too, which makes this exponentially worse), and we win the least when we're ahead, unless we got lucky and he flopped a lower 2 pair or gets stubborn with AQ. I don't think this hand is really about putting the other guy on a range(which is the easy part of the hand) or about Gigabet having some amazing read on the dude. They would've included that in the original post, I don't think they're making these posts with arrogant intent.

I thought calling was totally standard for both the flop and the turn, and I was suprised how many people wanted to push right away. This river is very interesting, though. I think the whole hand really shows off a very important concept: Gambler's ruin. When you hit 0, you're out. Obviously you want to avoid that, but I think this hand is meant to show off how much and when. My first thought when I saw the river action was "Yes, got him! PUSH!", but the more I think about it the more I don't like pushing. Last 900 chips, you gain very little actual equity for putting them in when ahead and you lose so badly when you're behind, because it busts you out, even though I think that's a very small percent of the time. With 900 left you still have a chance, and with either 3400 or 4300, either way you're still an above average but not huge stack.

I don't know, I might just push the river anyway, because I'd be pretty shocked to see a better hand and the 900 chips are still a pretty decent chunk. my mental models for this are still a little rough.

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
I think the point of this hand is Way ahead way behind.

And the takeaway is that villain will fold to a:
push on the flop
push on the turn
push on the river (difficult laydown)

When he is behind.

Every push is poor in my opinion, and everyone is assuming that villain will call when he is behind.

.

[/ QUOTE ]


I think villain folding to the turn is unlikely.. with a card to come and great odds, so when you're ahead there you're still gettiing payed off. I think.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
this is a check, expecting to lose to QT

[/ QUOTE ]

pwnd

[gergery]

I'd have checked behind.

Plenty of people with straights would have gotten nervous that you'd hit the flush and will also check. They also can just play bad and get scared.

I also agree that the marginal utility of having a few extra chips from taking his stack is worth relatively less than the chips you have if you bust. Particularly since i think you could well be behind.

-g

[junkmail3]

I know I'm really late on this one, but I wanted to finish it up here before I read the expert responses. I haven't read this thread yet either though.

This is a tough river card. I'm not sure who it scares more though, villian or hero. But from the way villain played this hand, he could have something huge, or nothing at all. I think, like I said before, we're way ahead or way behind. I think villian will call anything, even a straight he already had. He probably doesn't have a FH, or he would have bet it.

Because I still have absolutely no idea where I am on this hand, I check and keep myself in the tournament. If I win, I'm sure I can find an edge later to get that 800-900 I passed up here.