$55 - KQs - POST FLOP

[Scuba Chuck]

So I go to bed early last night, wake up early, and this is what's on my mind. /images/graemlins/tongue.gif
(from memory)

No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t10 (10 handed)

UTG (t1000)
UTG+1 (t1000)
UTG+2 (t1000)
MP1 (t1000)
MP2 (t1000)
MP3 (t1000)
CO (t1000)
Hero (t1000)
SB (t1000)
BB (t1000)

Blinds (5/10)
Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/heart.gif Q /images/graemlins/heart.gif
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG calls t10, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, MP2 calls t10, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, CO calls t10, <font color="red"> Hero calls t10</font>, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t60) T/images/graemlins/heart.gif 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif 7/images/graemlins/club.gif
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP2 checks, CO checks, <font color="red"> hero bets t60</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG folds, MP2 calls t60, CO folds.

Turn: (t180) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif
MP2 bets t180, <font color="red"> Hero folds ?? </font>

Comments on the flop and turn welcome.
Also, had MP2 checked the turn, should I bet or take the free card?

My thoughts at the time: I've only got 70 chips invested so far. If the river is a blank, I don't think I can call another bet, even if it's a Q. But I have a bunch of outs.

This mornings thoughts: I'm getting 2:1 on the call. I have 3 Js to the nut straight, and 9/images/graemlins/heart.gifs to the 2nd nut flush. There's a good chance one J is gone, so let's say optimistically 10 outs. 3.6:1. This is still a good fold?

[Karak567]

I would have pushed. I play the 55s uber aggressive and find I pick up a lot of early pots this way. A lead into you on the turn might be a bluff of some kind.

Even if you are called, you still have a bunch of outs!

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
I would have pushed. I play the 55s uber aggressive and find I pick up a lot of early pots this way. A lead into you on the turn might be a bluff of some kind.

Even if you are called, you still have a bunch of outs!

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice that this is not a Party game. There is lots of early play (and this is the very first hand). Furthermore, this is precisely a WA/WB situation, although I do have a ~ 22% chance at the nuts (or 2nd nuts). Frankly, I don't care for a push here.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I would have pushed. I play the 55s uber aggressive and find I pick up a lot of early pots this way. A lead into you on the turn might be a bluff of some kind.

Even if you are called, you still have a bunch of outs!

[/ QUOTE ]

Notice that this is not a Party game. There is lots of early play (and this is the very first hand). Furthermore, this is precisely a WA/WB situation, although I do have a ~ 22% chance at the nuts (or 2nd nuts). Frankly, I don't care for a push here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah, I just looked at the stack sizes and assumed it was a Party game. With the fast rising blinds of Party, I could see a push here. If this is a deeper stacked, slower game, I can understand your line, I suppose.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]

Ah, I just looked at the stack sizes and assumed it was a Party game. With the fast rising blinds of Party, I could see a push here. If this is a deeper stacked, slower game, I can understand your line, I suppose.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not deeper stacked, but there is one extra early level (specifically level 1 at 5/10). That being said, I'm not sure if I like this line at Party either.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Ah, I just looked at the stack sizes and assumed it was a Party game. With the fast rising blinds of Party, I could see a push here. If this is a deeper stacked, slower game, I can understand your line, I suppose.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not deeper stacked, but there is one extra early level (specifically level 1 at 5/10). That being said, I'm not sure if I like this line at Party either.

[/ QUOTE ]

But think about it, what is villain leading out into you on the turn with? If he just made the nut straight, would he really lead into you with a pot sized bet?

If he doesn't have a straight, then you can add in a K (if he has a lower two pair) and MAYBE a Q (if he doesn't have a J) as an out. Plus if he doesn't have the straight, you pick up that extra J, not to mention all those flush outs.

I do not think a made, strong hand is leading into you with a pot sized bet here. He can't assume you were betting with a flush draw, either. Maybe I am giving the villain too much credit for being able to think...

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]


But think about it, what is villain leading out into you on the turn with? If he just made the nut straight, would he really lead into you with a pot sized bet?

If he doesn't have a straight, then you can add in a K (if he has a lower two pair) and MAYBE a Q (if he doesn't have a J) as an out. Plus if he doesn't have the straight, you pick up that extra J, not to mention all those flush outs.

I do not think a made, strong hand is leading into you with a pot sized bet here. He can't assume you were betting with a flush draw, either. Maybe I am giving the villain too much credit for being able to think...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you just drew to the nut straight, would you let the flush draw off cheap?

The hand range I put villain on are QJ, KJ, KT, K9, another KQ, and there is of course a set maybe (although not likely a set of Ks). This seems like an awfully narrow field. Of course, there is always the possibility of Kx.

Anyway, to answer your question, I would pot it if I had the straight here.

[Karak567]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]


But think about it, what is villain leading out into you on the turn with? If he just made the nut straight, would he really lead into you with a pot sized bet?

If he doesn't have a straight, then you can add in a K (if he has a lower two pair) and MAYBE a Q (if he doesn't have a J) as an out. Plus if he doesn't have the straight, you pick up that extra J, not to mention all those flush outs.

I do not think a made, strong hand is leading into you with a pot sized bet here. He can't assume you were betting with a flush draw, either. Maybe I am giving the villain too much credit for being able to think...

[/ QUOTE ]

If you just drew to the nut straight, would you let the flush draw off cheap?

The hand range I put villain on are QJ, KJ, KT, K9, another KQ, and there is of course a set maybe (although not likely a set of Ks). This seems like an awfully narrow field. Of course, there is always the possibility of Kx.

Anyway, to answer your question, I would pot it if I had the straight here.

[/ QUOTE ]

I would lead for slightly less than the pot. A pot sized bet here just looks too aggressive for a made hand. Maybe 125-150ish, still does not let the flush draw off anywhere near cheap. But that's not the issue.

I really think you may be ahead here enough of the time or get ahead here often enough for this to be +EV. I think to really look at this we should establish a hand range for the villain and run the EV numbers on this.

Any reads on the villain? Should have asked this sooner. I know it's the first hand, but have you seen him before?

[Karak567]

Another thought I just had:

Villain called a pot sized bet on the flop. Obviously this does not give him his odds to draw and I find it hard to believe villain can justify this with implied odds this early in the tournament. This may change my line a bit as well and tell me a little bit about the villain and what he has.

If he had the straight draw, he may be weak and weak players love to slowplay and trap. Thus a weak player most of the time will not lead into you.

Maybe villain has a flush draw?

[Scuba Chuck]

Karak, how often do you notice hold'em fish will call bets on the flop when the pot is small. That's one thing I liked about making the flop bet, is that it limits the field, and helps me narrow a hand range with turn action.

I agree that I may be ahead here enough of the time, but I'm not sure if I could call a river bet UI. That's where I'm having difficulties. If I felt villain could check the river, so I could check-behind (UI), that would be easier.

With regards to slowplaying, villain may have already slow played. We missed one more hand. J8. That K is a scare card to that hand. Obviously a push could get a better hand to fold here, but I think we're giving the fish too much credit.

Frankly, I think I was up against KT or QJ. But I have no reason nor read to make this assumption.

[Karak567]

Yeah what I was saying is his pot sized call on the flop may indicate he was a fish, and a fish would probably check this turn.

Maybe just flat calling the turn and calling either a small bet or checking behind on the river might be ok.

[lacky]

Unless you have a super solid read on this guy you are giving him FAR too much credit. You are basically saying he could only make that bet with QJ, and that isn't even close to true.

Steve

[inyaface]

What about a hand like K8. Villan calls bet with OESD and bets turn when he pairs?. What about A8 of hearts. Check calls flop bet with nut draw and leads the turn to get a free card or take the pot down. The thing is he can have so many hands and you have a decent chance of being ahead and a decent chance of hitting an out on the river if youre not. In position I call and see how the turn plays out. If villan fires big and you miss on the river then chances are he's not firing a bluff, if he bets big and you hit then you call/raise depedning on your read and if he check you can just check behind with what very well could be the best hand. Pushing is also ok but I really don't like a fold.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
Unless you have a super solid read on this guy you are giving him FAR too much credit. You are basically saying he could only make that bet with QJ, and that isn't even close to true.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Steve, no reads. And I'm not saying he can only make this play with QJ. What I was saying is that the hand range I figured he would make this bet, QJ, J8, KJ, KT, K9, and another KQ. Against this range, I don't think I'm a huge favorite. I'm very interested on your take on this hand though. Is this worth a call to you?

Inyaface, I have to admit K8 is also a possibility here, and I think it would be strange if A8 of hearts is playing it this way now.

[ QUOTE ]
but I really don't like a fold.

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That's why I'm posting this hand, and why it was on my mind this AM.

[Irieguy]

Folding here is quite bad.

Irieguy

[wuwei]

No time to really respond, gotta get back to parenting. But chew on this...

I think that's a decent, tightish range. I've eliminated made hands on the flop because I think they're pretty unlikely based on the action.

Also give some thought to how well KT and QJ pays off when you hit your flush.

2,640 games 0.031 secs 85,161 games/sec

Board: Th 9h 7c Kd
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 50.2841 % [ 00.46 00.04 ] { KhQh }
Hand 2: 49.7159 % [ 00.45 00.04 ] { AKs, KQs-K7s, QJs, AKo, KQo-K7o, QJo }

[lacky]

yes, I'm calling here, and getting excited, because now it looks like he might actually have enough to give me his entire stack if I catch. lets assume I catch, he would very likely lead out with enough to commit him to your push or near push bet. If I dont catch at all, I will call a small bet on the river, 150 or so, and would consider folding to a bigger bet. If he missed too, and checks, I would check behind to take it cheap.

Steve

[JudoGirl]

this looks like a tough decision to me. I'm not sure why ireguy says a laydown is particularly bad and I'd like to hear more.

If the person has a str8 or 2 pair, you don't have the odds to call if that person is saavy enough to let the hand go if the flush card hits. Your pair of K's may be good though. The person could be betting the K thinking it is a scare card (after all, you didn't raise in position, so it's not unreasonalble to think you don't have a strong K).

I think I call here, but I think it is a close decision.
UI, I fold to a pot sized bet on the river.

[inyaface]

True A8 of hearts is bizzare here but people play wierd. The whole point is there is a large range of hands villan could have. Also I think a key point is position. If you were OOP and checked for some reason and were facing a turn bet it might be a bit harder. In position you have a lot of the control on the river and therefore I think seeing the river even if you miss is not terrible.

[Scuba Chuck]

[ QUOTE ]
yes, I'm calling here, and getting excited, because now it looks like he might actually have enough to give me his entire stack if I catch. lets assume I catch, he would very likely lead out with enough to commit him to your push or near push bet. If I dont catch at all, I will call a small bet on the river, 150 or so, and would consider folding to a bigger bet. If he missed too, and checks, I would check behind to take it cheap.

Steve

[/ QUOTE ]

Steve, thank you very much. This was what I was hoping to get out of this post.