I smell a bluff... [Archive] - Two Plus Two Older Archives

Aaron W.

10-12-2005, 11:40 PM

Villain is known to be aggressive. I've played about 40 hands with him and I'm starting to get a good feel for how he plays. I've been a tiny bit tight, but very aggressive. I'm not sure how much he notices.

I really doubt he has an ace because he would probably go for the fancy check-raise if he did. I'm pretty sure I would have heard from a medium pocket pair on the flop or turn. So I suspect he had overcards and was chasing, and there's an outside chance of a small pocket pair 44-22 and was planning the river donk the whole time.

How do you play it?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (5.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero...

milesdyson

10-12-2005, 11:45 PM

no specifics about his aggression really, just that he is aggressive.

i don't think he would try a check raise with an ace (because you raised preflop and have been betting the whole way), but i also think that if you call this it's not very -EV.

so generally i would fold if i had bet the turn. against someone who will bluff a lot of rivers, i'll gladly check behind my K high on the turn and call a river bet.

trainslayer

10-13-2005, 12:06 AM

I'd like to say that the pot is sufficiently large enuf for me to call down, mainly just to see what he's playin. But in reality I 'spect that i'd fold here. I doubt it's a bluff (at least it usually isn't when i'm there.) I'da probably given it up on the turn.

edit: against someone who will bluff a lot of rivers, i'll gladly check behind my K high on the turn and call a river bet.
yeah, i like this

SlantNGo

10-13-2005, 12:11 AM

[ QUOTE ]
no specifics about his aggression really, just that he is aggressive.

i don't think he would try a check raise with an ace (because you raised preflop and have been betting the whole way), but i also think that if you call this it's not very -EV.

so generally i would fold if i had bet the turn. against someone who will bluff a lot of rivers, i'll gladly check behind my K high on the turn and call a river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

Word. If I think he has a tendency bluff the river, I check behind the turn and call a river bet. I would only bet the turn in that case if the opp. was so loose that I'm value betting, and planning on betting the river as well.

Aaron W.

10-13-2005, 01:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Villain is known to be aggressive. I've played about 40 hands with him and I'm starting to get a good feel for how he plays. I've been a tiny bit tight, but very aggressive. I'm not sure how much he notices.

I really doubt he has an ace because he would probably go for the fancy check-raise if he did. I'm pretty sure I would have heard from a medium pocket pair on the flop or turn. So I suspect he had overcards and was chasing, and there's an outside chance of a small pocket pair 44-22 and was planning the river donk the whole time.

How do you play it?

Paradise Poker 1/2 Hold'em (4 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx (http://www.zerodivide.cx/converter)

Preflop: Hero is Button with K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, T/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, Hero raises, 2 folds, UTG calls.

Flop: (5.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 5/images/graemlins/diamond.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

Turn: (3.75 BB) 6/images/graemlins/spade.gif (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (5.75 BB) A/images/graemlins/heart.gif (2 players)
UTG bets, Hero...

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero thinks for a long time (probably 7-10 seconds), calls, and loses to KJo. I'm still not sure if I like the call. My gut feeling is that it's right on the cusp, as I think he would do the same with QJ and maybe even QT/JT. When you balance those against the times he donks pocket pair or an ace (and against the size of the pot), it seems to be very close.

TomBrooks

10-13-2005, 03:35 PM

I don't think he'd go for a checkraise because he probably suspects you were continuation betting with nothing since you probably didn't connect with this board with hands that you would raise preflop or you were betting with an overpair lower than aces (by figuring if he has one and there is one on the board, you are less likely to have the other two.)

I'd probably fold, but if you think you have him beat even 1 time in 6 (to be exact, 6.75 - the rake), call.

TomBrooks

10-13-2005, 03:42 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Hero thinks for a long time (probably 7-10 seconds), calls, and loses to KJo.

[/ QUOTE ]
I didn't think about this before, but why did you raise an UTG limper with KJo? I would probably just limp with it and hope to connect with the flop unless UTG is pretty loose, say above 40-45 vpip - then I would try to fold the blinds and get it heads up.

deception5

10-13-2005, 03:46 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I didn't think about this before, but why did you raise an UTG limper with KJo? I would probably just limp with it and hope to connect with the flop unless UTG is pretty loose, say above 40-45 vpip - then I would try to fold the blinds and get it heads up.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's 4-handed.

cold_cash

10-13-2005, 03:47 PM

Is he ever going to bet/fold this river?

If the answer is 'yes' I would prefer raising to calling. (And I know the results are in here, but even before I saw them I was worried this guy might be bluffing with the best hand.)

If he's going to show down any pair than obviously calling is better, but folding is probably best of all.

deception5

10-13-2005, 03:47 PM

I think I probably end up playing this the same way. I don't like giving a free card on the turn, my preference is to bet the turn and check behind on the river. Interesting thought though to check behind the turn and call any river.

smoovee

10-13-2005, 04:11 PM

ur probably ahead on the flop, maybe even turn. but with position, i would have checked the turn b/c i dont really think you can value bet/bluff and expect him to fold. it induces a bluff on the river anyways more times than not against such a player. situations where i am not certain, i would try this play and see it as cheap as possible.

Shillx

10-13-2005, 04:23 PM

Raising looks to be a good play, but so does calling imo. KQ is a clear call and QT is a clear raise. KT could very well be a good hand to use a mixed strategy with. Since you are going to iso-raise a lot more with K-hign the Q-high, it looks like a prime hand to raise x% of the time (where x is say 15% of the time).

Brad

aces_dad

10-13-2005, 04:25 PM

Replying to Aaron's last post:

You mention he could donk with a PP, but why not any piece of the board? The paired flop reduces the odds of him having caught a piece, does the fact the board is fairly low and that he could easily be calling with UI overs until the river lead you to believe he's less likely to have any piece? Or is it because you've seen him raise any piece of the board already?

While we give up on a chance to have him fold a better chance on the turn by checking, I do think checking through makes the river call easier as his donk range will open up.

Aaron W.

10-13-2005, 05:14 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Replying to Aaron's last post:

You mention he could donk with a PP, but why not any piece of the board? The paired flop reduces the odds of him having caught a piece, does the fact the board is fairly low and that he could easily be calling with UI overs until the river lead you to believe he's less likely to have any piece? Or is it because you've seen him raise any piece of the board already?

While we give up on a chance to have him fold a better chance on the turn by checking, I do think checking through makes the river call easier as his donk range will open up.

[/ QUOTE ]

Most aggressive players have a really hard time being passive. If he has a piece of this board, I think he won't be able to keep from betting/raising somewhere on the flop or turn.

Checking makes the river call easier because I'm calling basically any river if I check behind on the turn. But I'd rather bet the turn to try to knock out aces, better kings, and those hands that are worse than mine but drawing to 6 or more outs, such as Q9 and QJ. I have more to gain from getting him to fold junk than I gain by giving him a free chance to beat me.

You should be more inclined to bet the turn rather than induce a river bluff when your hand is weaker. The reason is that you cannot pick off nearly as many bluffs on the river if you have a weak hand. Another reason is that it's easier to dump to a check-raise on the turn with a mediocre hand than it is to weak-decent hand. I would hate to get check-raised here with AK because I've got a reasonable chance of having the best hand. So with AK, I check behind on the turn and call a river bet.

deception5

10-13-2005, 05:19 PM

Actually I'm wondering if the villian ever folds an ace here to your turn bet. Maybe checking behind on the turn and calling the river is superior.

Aaron W.

10-13-2005, 05:19 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Is he ever going to bet/fold this river?

If the answer is 'yes' I would prefer raising to calling. (And I know the results are in here, but even before I saw them I was worried this guy might be bluffing with the best hand.)

If he's going to show down any pair than obviously calling is better, but folding is probably best of all.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's really close. I almost raised, I almost folded, then I decided to call. Generically, players have a tough time folding a pair HU on the river. I can almost hear them thinking "He probably has the ace... oh well... I want to see it". The river bluff-raise is really reserved for players who are good enough to lay down the best hand sometimes. Maybe if I were playing $5/10 (or against a pretty good $1/2 player), I would pull the river bluff-raise. At $1-2, I just don't see it working often enough.

Aaron W.

10-13-2005, 05:23 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Actually I'm wondering if the villian ever folds an ace here to your turn bet. Maybe checking behind on the turn and calling the river is superior.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm really not thrilled with trying to pick off a bluff with K-high. Checking behind and calling the river opens up the door for villain to value bet ace-high. If I knew he would always call a turn bet with ace-high, there's a strong argument for giving up on the hand and folding the river UI.

aces_dad

10-13-2005, 05:27 PM

I clearly agree we'd rather induce a bluff / showdown against this agressive villian with a better bluff catcher like UI AK here than the weaker K10.

Even without knowingly (ie, unless I'm drinking heavily) encorportating game theory to mix things up I will, in general, try to win HU without a SD with the weaker hands I can easily fold to a raise / c/r and induce a river bet from the stronger ones. I'm glad to see you had to think about the decision on the river a little bit, as it is sometimese hard for me to make these late street decisions quickly at game speed at this point in my pokering especially when such a strange bet comes.

marchron

10-14-2005, 12:48 AM

If you really think he's bluffing, why not raise and fold to a 3-bet?

milesdyson

10-14-2005, 12:51 AM

[ QUOTE ]
If you really think he's bluffing, why not raise and fold to a 3-bet?

[/ QUOTE ]
because the only hands that are bluffing and are not betting for value against hero's hand are KJ and KQ, and we are simply folding all the rest of his possible bluffs and losing a bet against any pair hand with which he will definitely call.