Effective 2nd nuts line check

[Ghazban]

Villain is pretty bland (23/6/4 after 450 hands). He's not particularly good but not an uberdonk, either. I figured him for a queen or a good jack after the flop raise; the small turn bet made a jack seem more likely but calling the raise made me sure he had a queen. I'm not thrilled about the river raise but I can't possibly fold so I call expecting to see AQ/KQ at least some of the time.

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $2 Hero (6 max, 4 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Button ($420.30)
SB ($358.35)
Hero ($412.60)
UTG ($257.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif. SB posts a blind of $1.
UTG calls $2, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, SB (poster) completes, Hero checks.

Flop: ($6) Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, J/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $10</font>, SB folds, Hero calls $5.

Turn: ($26) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
Hero checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets $10</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $40</font>, UTG calls $30.

River: ($106) 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
I bet $75, he pushes, I call

[Riposte]

With those stats, I don't think he's playing QJ UTG. However he could have AQ... KQ a big maybe. So I like the flop bet and subsequent call. You could be ahead of AJ or behind AQ.

The turn of course is good. River good too. He's pushing your river bet to a brick on the river after calling your turn raise? What in the world is he doing?

[elus2]

[ QUOTE ]
With those stats, I don't think he's playing QJ UTG. However he could have AQ... KQ a big maybe. So I like the flop bet and subsequent call. You could be ahead of AJ or behind AQ.

The turn of course is good. River good too. He's pushing your river bet to a brick on the river after calling your turn raise? What in the world is he doing?

[/ QUOTE ]

QJ /images/graemlins/heart.gif maybe? that's the only combination of cards i can see him holding off the bat that beats us and plays this way. i call and hope he overplayed something.

[xorbie]

Almost this exact hand happened yesterday with me. He had QJ. owever, this guy is aggro enough to get it all in here with AQ so I figure bombs away.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Almost this exact hand happened yesterday with me. He had QJ. owever, this guy is aggro enough to get it all in here with AQ so I figure bombs away.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not allowed to reply-- you were at the table when it happened /images/graemlins/tongue.gif (though he wasn't the villain)

[Riposte]

True, QJs is a possibility. Maybe a fold on the flop is in order. It's close.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
True, QJs is a possibility. Maybe a fold on the flop is in order. It's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think folding the flop would be a colossal mistake. The minraise is a good jack at least as often as its a queen.

[Phoenix1010]

AQ and JJ are getting it all in almost 100% of the time, and both are mathematically equally likely or more likely than QJ. Calling the push is certainly +EV.

I generally play my FH's a lot slower than most, which might be a problem. I would actually bet out the turn and hope for another raise. I don't think anything less than KQ calls that turn checkraise, while AA might call two more bets. Also, the check raise definitely slows KQ down a bit, while it may be inclined to raise again if bet into on the turn.

[Bukem_]

[ QUOTE ]
True, QJs is a possibility. Maybe a fold on the flop is in order. It's close.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hell no.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Almost this exact hand happened yesterday with me. He had QJ. owever, this guy is aggro enough to get it all in here with AQ so I figure bombs away.

[/ QUOTE ]

You're not allowed to reply-- you were at the table when it happened /images/graemlins/tongue.gif (though he wasn't the villain)

[/ QUOTE ]

If I was at the table I totally missed the hand.

[Riposte]

you're right, sorry.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
you're right, sorry.

[/ QUOTE ]

No need to apologize; that's just silly.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I think you have to lead the turn to make sure you build the pot. You have the second nuts. Sure he might be more likely to limp QJ than KQ or AQ but he might also have limped JJ or QT also or be overplaying Q9. I wouldn't worry too much about being behind once you fill up. I think the check/raise let's him off too easily if he has something like Q9 which he might check behind or fold to the check/raise. I bet $19 on the turn and hope he raises again in which case I'm 3-betting and calling a push or pushing the river if he just calls turn 3-bet. If he just calls the $20 on the turn, I'm potting the river.

[wdeadwyler]

I like it, nh, standard even.

Edit: Read other replies. I guess a c/r does let him off, but I love to c/r minraisers when I make my hand, just cuz I hate the minraise so much.

[bobbyi]

What was your plan if you didn't help on the turn (let's say if it was the 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif)?

[orange]

Instead of c/r-ing, did you think about stop-n-go and leading the turn?

[Malachii]

[ QUOTE ]
Instead of c/r-ing, did you think about stop-n-go and leading the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]
I like this much better. Sort of an extension of the "lead into the raiser" principle that was discussedin Supersystem.

[fuzzbox]

[ QUOTE ]
AQ and JJ are getting it all in almost 100% of the time, and both are mathematically equally likely or more likely than QJ. Calling the push is certainly +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is only true if he would push the river with all of these hands. If he would only push the river with QJ, then this is not +EV.

[fuzzbox]

I probably lead the turn, and push if/when he raises.

His call on the turn, and push on the river leads me to believe that he has a full house. So its JJ or QJ I guess. It could be AQ if he is a donkey, but that hand is more likely to get more frisky earlier than the river.

I call the push for sure, and hope he has Q6 /images/graemlins/smile.gif.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
What was your plan if you didn't help on the turn (let's say if it was the 2/images/graemlins/heart.gif)?

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a good question. I would probably check/call a reasonable bet and either check/call or check/fold the river depending on my read and what hit. If he bombs the turn, I think I should fold but in all honesty I don't know if I would be able to in the heat of the moment.

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
AQ and JJ are getting it all in almost 100% of the time, and both are mathematically equally likely or more likely than QJ. Calling the push is certainly +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is only true if he would push the river with all of these hands. If he would only push the river with QJ, then this is not +EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

He would. He'd probably even push the river with TT.

EDIT: uhh, this is 4-handed? easily call.

Oh and, concerning the check-raise, I don't like it. It's just scary.

[djoyce003]

ghaz I can't just see folding this. I personally think you sucked out on a better Q or JJ on the turn. I'd beat him into the pot with my chips.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
I think you have to lead the turn to make sure you build the pot. You have the second nuts. Sure he might be more likely to limp QJ than KQ or AQ but he might also have limped JJ or QT also or be overplaying Q9. I wouldn't worry too much about being behind once you fill up. I think the check/raise let's him off too easily if he has something like Q9 which he might check behind or fold to the check/raise. I bet $19 on the turn and hope he raises again in which case I'm 3-betting and calling a push or pushing the river if he just calls turn 3-bet. If he just calls the $20 on the turn, I'm potting the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

The first time I read this, I thought "yeah, he's right, checkraising the turn lets him get away from a bad queen too easily", then I remembered a conversation we had in a thread a few weeks ago about semibluff checkraises on the turn. We both noted that people call those way too much (in this game) so the folding equity just isn't there for that to be a good line. Now, we're saying checkraising this turn lets him off too easily and I don't think we can have it both ways (despite there being validity in both arguments).

Checkraising the turn wins more against another queen (that I sucked out on or that was worse from the start or whatever) or an aggressively played jack. People don't normally minraise the flop and then check a made hand behind on the turn (sometimes they do but, in my experience, its a rarity). I lose a little to a hand that folds to a checkraise but would call a river lead but I win more against hands that will fold to a checkraise but would also fold if I led out again.

If he has any boat, it probably all goes in anyway.

[TheWorstPlayer]

I'm more afraid of his checking Q9 than of his betting it and folding to a check/raise in this particular instance. In general, though, I don't think its a good plan because opponents probably won't bet it and if they do it is with the intention of folding to a check/raise.

[Ghazban]

So you believe he will minraise the flop with something he is willing to call a turn bet with (which would reek or strength) but will not bet himself?

[Simplistic]

if Villain does have QJ, he took a strange line. with 2nd nuts here i'm getting it all-in. results?

With a pfr of 6, he might have limped AQ/KQ. Were those 450 hands 4-handed or 6-handed?

Anyway I call

[jkkkk]

The only thing I might change about your line is leading the turn, to build against Qx, Jx if hes bad.

[Ghazban]

When he pushed the river, I said to myself "Does he really have QJ? I can't possibly lay this down", called, and got shown QJo. I don't think folding to the river push is a good idea in the long run but QJ is really the only thing that makes sense for him to play in this fashion (folding is out of the question precisely because people at this level habitually overplay hands). JJ is almost always going to be raised UTG in a 4-handed game, as is KQ and AQ. Even if we say he might have a worse queen, the only worse queen that pushes the river is Q6s. His line is reasonable only for QJ and QT in my opinion.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Yup. Very typical behaviour for a worse queen. Min-raise flop because he has trips, check turn because you called flop min-raise and he gets scared. But of course would call off his whole stack if you bet.

[Ghazban]

Which worse queens to you feel he is likely to limp UTG 4-handed?

[TheWorstPlayer]

Well I've been saying Q9 so I'll stick with that.

[xorbie]

[ QUOTE ]
Which worse queens to you feel he is likely to limp UTG 4-handed?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not that it probably matters against this donk, but was I SB or button in this hand? I know I was probably on psuedo tilt at the time, but I'm sure I was still probably raising 30+% of my buttons, so I think even Q9 is sorta stretching it.

[Ghazban]

[ QUOTE ]
Well I've been saying Q9 so I'll stick with that.

[/ QUOTE ]

So that's exactly one hand where we have to worry about him checking the turn behind vs. several that he will bet himself (AQ/KQ/QJ/JJ/QT, maybe even a missed LRR with AA/KK or some sort of good jack). My point is just that you seem very concerned with him checking behind while I'm pretty confident he's going to bet anything he'd put any money in with.

To xorbie-- you were button.

[Leptyne]

I think your line is good. This reminds me of a set over set situation. In the long run you'll break even in this situation. Of course very devastatiing at the time. I don't see any way you get away from this without a specific read. Even then I probably make a crying call.

[xorbie]

No way villain checks here with Q9. The river action maybe doesn't happen, but no way does he check the turn.

[TheWorstPlayer]

Maybe this villain isn't checking Q9, but if I'm villain, I'm checking Q9, AA, KK.