Throw up and fold right? (Aces)

[People_Mover]

Full Ring 100NL

Villian just sat down 2 orbitz ago and has played 2 hands winning them both without a showdown. I have some notes on him as a good player who does not get out of line and plays pretty ABC. I've played TAG and built my stack from 50.00 to 76.00.

Villian (60.00) raises in MP1 to 2.50, Hero with A /images/graemlins/spade.gifA /images/graemlins/diamond.gif reraises to 7.00. Villian calls.

(15.00 pot) Flop is Q /images/graemlins/club.gifJ /images/graemlins/club.gif10 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif

Villian takes like 4 seconds and checks. Hero???? I felt like I was gonna throw up.

I felt so lost. I bet $8.00 and he mincheckraised me to $16.00. Hero folds right??

He didn't show me, but said he had it AK.

[kitaristi0]

Apart from betting more like $12 on the flop, looks pretty good.

[mayesie]

That flop is about as bad as it gets for your Aces. Unless I had a strong read (and I mean strong) on the villain to tell me otherwise, I'm probably laying this down.

Fold it, & forget about it!

[The_Bends]

Yup terrible flop, I'd bet $10-15 and fold if raised.

[Godfather80]

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Yup terrible flop, I'd bet $10-15 and fold if raised.

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Why exactly are we betting if Villain checks this flop to us? We all know it's the worst possible flop for our hand and we are finished with the hand after we take this one token aggressive action.

What better hands will fold to our bet and what worse hands will call?

Why would we not check behind and see if the turn brings a King for free?

[People_Mover]

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Yup terrible flop, I'd bet $10-15 and fold if raised.

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Why exactly are we betting if Villain checks this flop to us? We all know it's the worst possible flop for our hand and we are finished with the hand after we take this one token aggressive action.

What better hands will fold to our bet and what worse hands will call?

Why would we not check behind and see if the turn brings a King for free?

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Because you're still WAY ahead of hands like A/10, A/J and AQ and slightly against of KK. Gotta figure out where you are and you don't know without betting.

[Godfather80]

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Yup terrible flop, I'd bet $10-15 and fold if raised.

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Why exactly are we betting if Villain checks this flop to us? We all know it's the worst possible flop for our hand and we are finished with the hand after we take this one token aggressive action.

What better hands will fold to our bet and what worse hands will call?

Why would we not check behind and see if the turn brings a King for free?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you're still WAY ahead of hands like A/10, A/J and AQ and slightly against of KK. Gotta figure out where you are and you don't know without betting.

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So, given OP's description of villain, you think he has AT, AJ, and AQ in his hand range given the preflop action? Check behind.

[kitaristi0]

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Yup terrible flop, I'd bet $10-15 and fold if raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why exactly are we betting if Villain checks this flop to us? We all know it's the worst possible flop for our hand and we are finished with the hand after we take this one token aggressive action.

What better hands will fold to our bet and what worse hands will call?

Why would we not check behind and see if the turn brings a King for free?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you're still WAY ahead of hands like A/10, A/J and AQ and slightly against of KK. Gotta figure out where you are and you don't know without betting.

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So, given OP's description of villain, you think he has AT, AJ, and AQ in his hand range given the preflop action? Check behind.

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If you check behind we're getting bluffed out of a lot of pots IMO. Bet the flop and fold to a raise.

[Godfather80]

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Yup terrible flop, I'd bet $10-15 and fold if raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why exactly are we betting if Villain checks this flop to us? We all know it's the worst possible flop for our hand and we are finished with the hand after we take this one token aggressive action.

What better hands will fold to our bet and what worse hands will call?

Why would we not check behind and see if the turn brings a King for free?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you're still WAY ahead of hands like A/10, A/J and AQ and slightly against of KK. Gotta figure out where you are and you don't know without betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, given OP's description of villain, you think he has AT, AJ, and AQ in his hand range given the preflop action? Check behind.

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If you check behind we're getting bluffed out of a lot of pots IMO. Bet the flop and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

And your line if Villain calls and leads turn is? Fold, right.

So what if he bluffs the turn. The read here is that villain is solid ABC. If you shutdown after a 12 BB flop bet, why waste the 12BBs in this specific situation. What hands is Villain likely to hold that we beat that would check this flop to us?

[kitaristi0]

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Yup terrible flop, I'd bet $10-15 and fold if raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why exactly are we betting if Villain checks this flop to us? We all know it's the worst possible flop for our hand and we are finished with the hand after we take this one token aggressive action.

What better hands will fold to our bet and what worse hands will call?

Why would we not check behind and see if the turn brings a King for free?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you're still WAY ahead of hands like A/10, A/J and AQ and slightly against of KK. Gotta figure out where you are and you don't know without betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

So, given OP's description of villain, you think he has AT, AJ, and AQ in his hand range given the preflop action? Check behind.

[/ QUOTE ]

If you check behind we're getting bluffed out of a lot of pots IMO. Bet the flop and fold to a raise.

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And your line if Villain calls and leads turn is? Fold, right.

So what if he bluffs the turn. The read here is that villain is solid ABC. If you shutdown after a 12 BB flop bet, why waste the 12BBs in this specific situation. What hands is Villain likely to hold that we beat that would check this flop to us?

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The idea with a continuation bet isn't to waste 12 BB, it's because there's a good chance he didn't hit anything and will fold. If he calls we know that he probably has us beat (definitely so if he raises).

Hands that we beat that he would check to us: AQs, small PP, maybe some SC.

[Godfather80]

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The idea with a continuation bet isn't to waste 12 BB, it's because there's a good chance he didn't hit anything and will fold. If he calls we know that he probably has us beat (definitely so if he raises).

Hands that we beat that he would check to us: AQs, small PP, maybe some SC.

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Why do we want small PP, some SC, and AQs to fold again? The point of continuation betting isn't to force out worse hands so we can't make money off them is it?

[kitaristi0]

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The idea with a continuation bet isn't to waste 12 BB, it's because there's a good chance he didn't hit anything and will fold. If he calls we know that he probably has us beat (definitely so if he raises).

Hands that we beat that he would check to us: AQs, small PP, maybe some SC.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do we want small PP, some SC, and AQs to fold again? The point of continuation betting isn't to force out worse hands so we can't make money off them is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm not saying we want them to fold (or maybe I worded my original post badly). What I'm saying is that if we check behind on the flop, and then Villain bets his AQ, PP or SC, we almost have to fold, since the risk that he has us beat is just too large (with AK, QQ, JJ, TT, QJ, JT). So he's forced us to make a mistake and thus he has gained. If we continuation bet and he folds, he hasn't made a mistake, but that's better than checking and us making a mistake.

[Mr. Sakuraba]

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The idea with a continuation bet isn't to waste 12 BB, it's because there's a good chance he didn't hit anything and will fold. If he calls we know that he probably has us beat (definitely so if he raises).

Hands that we beat that he would check to us: AQs, small PP, maybe some SC.

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Why do we want small PP, some SC, and AQs to fold again? The point of continuation betting isn't to force out worse hands so we can't make money off them is it?

[/ QUOTE ]

Thats exactly what i use cont bets for. Most of the time when i make a cont bet after the flop, I missed my hand and am looking for him to fold. I think you bet half pot on the flop and if called then check/fold on the turn unless a miracle happens.

[Godfather80]

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The idea with a continuation bet isn't to waste 12 BB, it's because there's a good chance he didn't hit anything and will fold. If he calls we know that he probably has us beat (definitely so if he raises).

Hands that we beat that he would check to us: AQs, small PP, maybe some SC.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why do we want small PP, some SC, and AQs to fold again? The point of continuation betting isn't to force out worse hands so we can't make money off them is it?

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I'm not saying we want them to fold (or maybe I worded my original post badly). What I'm saying is that if we check behind on the flop, and then Villain bets his AQ, PP or SC, we almost have to fold, since the risk that he has us beat is just too large (with AK, QQ, JJ, TT, QJ, JT). So he's forced us to make a mistake and thus he has gained. If we continuation bet and he folds, he hasn't made a mistake, but that's better than checking and us making a mistake.

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I should word my posts better and stop being argumentative.

What I'm saying is this: in a standard continuation bet, hero risks $12 to win the $15 in the pot. Therefore, since in this case hero has little to no chance of catching up if he is behind, Villain must fold 44% of the time in order for this continuation bet to be +EV. Given Hero's read of Villain and the handrange we can comfortably put Villain on from his preflop actions, I do not think that Villain is folding 44% of the time. Therefore, in my estimation, a standard continuation bet is a -EV play here.

If you disagree, I understand. I guess it comes down to what you consider Villain's preflop range to be.

[Isura]

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Yup terrible flop, I'd bet $10-15 and fold if raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why exactly are we betting if Villain checks this flop to us? We all know it's the worst possible flop for our hand and we are finished with the hand after we take this one token aggressive action.

What better hands will fold to our bet and what worse hands will call?

Why would we not check behind and see if the turn brings a King for free?

[/ QUOTE ]

Because you're still WAY ahead of hands like A/10, A/J and AQ and slightly against of KK. Gotta figure out where you are and you don't know without betting.

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And how many outs does AT,AJ,AQ or KK have against us?

[kitaristi0]

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What I'm saying is this: in a standard continuation bet, hero risks $12 to win the $15 in the pot. Therefore, since in this case hero has little to no chance of catching up if he is behind, Villain must fold 44% of the time in order for this continuation bet to be +EV. Given Hero's read of Villain and the handrange we can comfortably put Villain on from his preflop actions, I do not think that Villain is folding 44% of the time. Therefore, in my estimation, a standard continuation bet is a -EV play here.

If you disagree, I understand. I guess it comes down to what you consider Villain's preflop range to be.


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The reason I suggested the $12 flop bet was because that's what I would bet here with AK or QQ, JJ, TT etc. So While I agree that a standard continuation bet may be slightly -EV right here, the time when I actually have AK and he calls me thinking I'm just continuating betting again more than makes up for the slight -EV in this hand.

Plus, by always betting the same amount on the flop, I give away no information about the strength of my hand.

But as you said, there's no point arguing here, this is just my opinion.

[Leptyne]

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Yup terrible flop, I'd bet $10-15 and fold if raised.

[/ QUOTE ]

Why exactly are we betting if Villain checks this flop to us? We all know it's the worst possible flop for our hand and we are finished with the hand after we take this one token aggressive action.

What better hands will fold to our bet and what worse hands will call?

Why would we not check behind and see if the turn brings a King for free?

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Godfather80 has it nailed. This type of flop should be handled like a mono flop when you don't have the A of that suit. Proceed slowly. Check behind! You have position and have wasted it.

A good rule of thumb on your preflop raise is to make a pot sized raise. In this case that would mean a raise of $8 to $10.50 total.