Allin every hand study finished. Post Mortem time.

[Daliman]

Ok, those of you that have been following THIS (http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showflat.php?Cat=&Board=singletable&Number=3603551 &Forum=,All_Forums,&Words=&Searchpage=0&Limit=25&M ain=3137925&Search=true&where=&Name=182&daterange= &newerval=&newertype=&olderval=&oldertype=&bodypre v=#Post3603551) thread may be happy to know that I finally finished the study. Final results were as follows.

360 $215 SNG's played.
58-42 record when i got Heads Up for Title (HU4T)
478744 total starting chips.

What does all this mean? Not a ton, but here's what I get out of it.

Given my average HU4T starting chipstack of 4787, average would figure to be about 47 wins,(rounding down for big stacks inherent edge.), but I had 58. Did I get lucky? Maybe. Were there times I KNEW my opponet was terrible and hated pushing with equal stacks with 25o only to be called by 94o and be far behind. More than I ever figured on. But what I can say with pretty good authority i feel is that if you think your HU4T game sucks, push from the button every single time if one of you is under 10x BB, period. You won't go far wrong.
Now, for a counter strategy to this, I would recommend first making sure this is what you are up against, and then call with the top 47% or so of hands, just for a bit of added cushion in case he MIGHT have a hand, and even calling looser than that MAY not be terrible, as there is a good chance he will abort pushbot strategy if he sees you are loosening up properly.

-Pushbot HU4T is a viable strategy(which I knew)
-It is likely a better strategy than I was using before (which I suspected)
-I need to push more often in my regular play HU4T from now on (which I suspected)

This was a very good learning experience for me, and I hope some of you got something out of it too. How this, or similar strategies will works at lower levels, I don't know for sure, but I suspect it works better the better your opponents are, to a certain point.

P.S. I forgot to mention that doing this cut down on my average hands played when HU4T pretty significantly, so since time is $$$, it even gives more credence to this style of play.

[Jman28]

Nice job Dali. I can't believe you got through this. I'd get way too frustrated, and I thought you would too.

One note...
[ QUOTE ]
average would figure to be about 47 wins,(rounding down for big stacks inherent edge.),

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't think big stacks heads up have an inherent edge.

EDIT: unless having it causes your opponent to play more correctly.

[Irieguy]

Cool. Thank you for the experiment.

Nothing surprising, but still nice to see how is shakes out over a hundred.

Irieguy

[Mr_J]

In reality this is unexploitable vs most opponents and in most HU situations. Most people just can't change gears quickly enough, and by the time they catch on they're either low enough that pushing any 2 is correct anyway, or they're dead /images/graemlins/wink.gif.

"How this, or similar strategies will works at lower levels"

Even better with 800 stacks.

"but I suspect it works better the better your opponents are"

I'd think it's still better at lower limits, since poorer players can't adapt the change in pace.

"I forgot to mention that doing this cut down on my average hands played when HU4T pretty significantly, so since time is $$$"

That and it allows you to focus on other sngs (good if you play continuously instead of in sets).

[Scuba Chuck]

So, the most important question is ...

How are you gonna play going forward?

[bawcerelli]

probably push from button 90% of the time.

[Deuce2High]

[ QUOTE ]
,(rounding down for big stacks inherent edge.),

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that not the opposite of the truth?

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
,(rounding down for big stacks inherent edge.),

[/ QUOTE ]

Is that not the opposite of the truth?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think neither player has an edge based on stack size if they both play correctly.

[downtown]

Experimenting with this strategy really helped my HU game. It's not exactly what I do now, but it's not far off either. Thanks for posting these results.

[Deuce2High]

How do you check your average stack going into heads-up with Poker Tracker?

[Cactus Jack]

Funny, I'm most impressed by you getting heads up nearly 1 out of three times at $215. That's pretty GD good, to me.

But, as far as your experiment goes, I didn't get it and still don't. So, you've systematized what is already a crapshoot anyway. Heads up is all about exploiting small edges. The better player already has an edge. Maybe you've taken away an opponents edge. Maybe you've exploited your edge in a different way, or negated your edge but shifted it. Who the ef knows? As I said, I never really understood what the point was, anyway.

Sometimes I think you guys are absolutely bent on taking the fun out of it. /images/graemlins/smile.gif

CJ

[Deuce2High]

[ QUOTE ]
Funny, I'm most impressed by you getting heads up nearly 1 out of three times at $215.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think we know Daliman's true reason for posting this thread; And that is to flaunt his godlike abilities.

[Jman28]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Funny, I'm most impressed by you getting heads up nearly 1 out of three times at $215.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think we know Daliman's true reason for posting this thread; And that is to flaunt his godlike abilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Dali would flaunt much more obviously if he wanted to. He was gonna post this anyways. Had he run badly, he would've whined about it in this thread. I'm suprised he didn't flaunt harder myself.

Also, he just got a boner when you called his abilities godlike.

[Deuce2High]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Funny, I'm most impressed by you getting heads up nearly 1 out of three times at $215.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think we know Daliman's true reason for posting this thread; And that is to flaunt his "godlike" abilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

No. Dali would flaunt much more obviously if he wanted to. He was gonna post this anyways. Had he run badly, he would've whined about it in this thread. I'm suprised he didn't flaunt harder myself.

Also, he just got a boner when you called his abilities godlike.

[/ QUOTE ]

FMP (Fixed My Post)

[Annulus]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Funny, I'm most impressed by you getting heads up nearly 1 out of three times at $215.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think we know Daliman's true reason for posting this thread; And that is to flaunt his godlike abilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

scarey thing is that we dont know how many times he got 3rd. sounds like an incredible run right here. out of curiousity, what was your ITM for this stretch?

Daliman, could you describe how you played heads up before this experiment?

And since I read about this experiment, I started pushing a LOT with high blinds heads up too. It also works at the $22's vs many opponents. You'd be surprised how many keep folding until they have about $1000 left.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
How do you check your average stack going into heads-up with Poker Tracker?

[/ QUOTE ]
Dunno if you can. I just wrote it down every time I got HU.

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Funny, I'm most impressed by you getting heads up nearly 1 out of three times at $215.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. I think we know Daliman's true reason for posting this thread; And that is to flaunt his godlike abilities.

[/ QUOTE ]

scarey thing is that we dont know how many times he got 3rd. sounds like an incredible run right here. out of curiousity, what was your ITM for this stretch?

[/ QUOTE ]

Stats for the stretch, which took me almost 3 months, lol.


58 16.1% $58,000
42 11.7% $25,200
47 13.1% $18,800
213 59.2% $ -
360 100.0% $102,000

Entry Fees $75,600

Win/Loss $26,400

Per STT $73.33

[Daliman]

[ QUOTE ]
Daliman, could you describe how you played heads up before this experiment?

And since I read about this experiment, I started pushing a LOT with high blinds heads up too. It also works at the $22's vs many opponents. You'd be surprised how many keep folding until they have about $1000 left.

[/ QUOTE ]

A LOT more cautiously, because my biggest pet peeve, as stated before, is pushing with crap and being called by crap but being behind. No more of that.

[bennies]

For me, this whole experiment, your precision and comments, are a great contribution to the forum, thank you.

[microbet]

Thanks for doing it. It works almost too well. It's important for your opponents who keep typing "No skill. Is that all you know?" to remain under the impression that the strategy is bad.

[ QUOTE ]

But, as far as your experiment goes, I didn't get it and still don't. So, you've systematized what is already a crapshoot anyway. Heads up is all about exploiting small edges. The better player already has an edge. Maybe you've taken away an opponents edge. Maybe you've exploited your edge in a different way, or negated your edge but shifted it. Who the ef knows? As I said, I never really understood what the point was, anyway.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's pretty simple actually: this strategy is clearly optimal against someone who folds WAY too frequently. Against a less extreme (but still too tight) opponent, the optimal strategy would be to push x% where x is pretty high, and this strategy's still +EV.

The proper counter to this strategy, unlike what Daliman said, is to call with all hands that have sligtly less than 40% equity against random hands (the higher the blinds relative to the short stack, the lower the neccessary equity). From these stats, and from a few other posts about the 215s, I'm pretty sure that the majority of the players at the 215s are able to do this, although you can certainly play inoptimally and still have an edge over this strategy (I bet calling with 50% or better hands wins with 10x BB).

Great experiment. If you're willing, i'd like to see it over more trials, but I can certainly understand your not wanting to do that.

The optimal strategy against this would be as follows (this was done using computer approximated equities against random hands, so the borderline hands could be off, but this is pretty damn close to optimal)

Shorty (ie, whichever of you is shorter) has 10x BB, call with hands that have 45% equity against random holding:

22+, 97+, T7+, J5+, Q2+, K2+, A2+, 78s, 96s, T5s+, J2s+

Shorty has 9x BB, call with hands that have 40% equity against random holding:

everything in previous list and 67, 86+, 95+, T2+, J2+, 56s, 57s, 84s+, 92s+

Shorty has 8x BB, call with hands that have 35% equity against random holding:

everything in previous list and 45, 64+, 74+, 82+, EVERY suited hand except 23s.

Shorty has 7x BB, call with hands that have 30% equity against random holding:

any two

Hope this helps.