More river madness

[Inthacup]

I don't know. Some decisions seem so easy to me, but seem like madness to you guys. I can't imagine not betting in this situation:

2 4 game, big pots, easy opponents

I'm in the BB and get my cash cow: K /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 4 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif . 2 EP limp, an EP checks his post(he missed the blinds), SB folds.

Flop: A /forums/images/icons/spade.gif j /forums/images/icons/spade.gif 8 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

Checked around

Turn: 10 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif

Checked around

River: J /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif

I bet.

What do you think of the bet and my chances of getting called by a worse hand? Routine? Thin? Bad?

[pufferfish]

I think the odds of getting called by a worse hand are pretty low. But, the odds of everyone folding don’t look too bad.

[travisand]

I would bet out hoping everyone will fold. I would say your chances of getting called by a worse hand are slim to none. I can't see anybody calling without atleast a spade and pretty much every spade out there is larger than yours.

[Tyler Durden]

I'm disgusted and I don't say that often.

Do you think you'll be called by the deuce or trey of spades? Do you think a non-spade will call?



"Your name's Lebowski Lebowski. Your wife is Bunny."

[SoBeDude]

Only rarely would a non-spade call here. There is just too high a likelihood someone has a spade. And any of the 13 spades (1/4 of the entire deck remember) beats any non-flush hand with this board.

I think this is a case where you'll only get called by better hands and hence you should check. Calling the river if someone else bets is even questionable, unless you're fairly sure he's bluffing.

-Scott

[Homer]

I disagree with everyone else. Worse hands will definitely call (and sometimes better hands will call/raise, but not as often). It is highly likely that no one else has a flush. Most of these opponents would bet with flush draws on the flop and with made flushes, no matter how small, on the turn. The only hands you should be worried about are JT and J8. These hands will raise and you should of course fold. More often though, you will be called by hands such as Ax, Jx, and maybe even Tx. They will not believe that you have a flush and/or will be curious to see what the hell you were betting with.

Don't get me wrong, this is a thin value bet, but I definitely think it is a bet. Those of you who think Inthacup is insane aren't familiar with the Party 2/4 games (I hope I'm not shooting myself in the foot by assuming you were playing at Party). These people are truly retarded.

-- Homer

[Homer]

I'm disgusted and I don't say that often.

I'm disgusted that you're disgusted. At most you should be incredulous or slightly perturbed.

Do you think you'll be called by the deuce or trey of spades?

Seriously? Yes, yes he will. Absolutely. This is Party 2/4. He will often be called by a hand as shitty as Tx.

The beauty of this the bet is that the crappy players would have bet their spade, no matter how low, on the turn. The good players would not, and they may now fold their mediocre spade to the river bet. So it kind of works as a bluff against good players and a value bet against typical players.

Do you think a non-spade will call?

See above.

-- Homer

[dux]

Check, and you don't mind a bet...hopefully from the last to act. This is a bet that can never be right IMO. You could be winning 95% of the time, but you still don't bet.

[Bob T.]

I agree with Homer. I think that this bet is a thin value bet at that limit. I also think that there is some possibility that a middle singleton spade might fold here.

[marbles]

This is a bet, and I don't think it's a particularly thin one. An ace will call. A jack will call. There's a chance you could fold a spade between 5 and 7, and no one holds anything higher.

[Bob T.]

Hmmm two camps. Both think they are right. Must be a good question.

[Jim Easton]

Yes, it is a good one. I think the "right" answer turns on knowledge of your opponents. The people that say don't bet are used to reasonable opponents. If this is in fact Party 2/4, it is highly unlikely he is dealing with reasonable opponents (see Homer's many posts on this subject). I agree with Homer on this one, for the same reasons.

[Bob T.]

If this is in fact Party 2/4, it is highly unlikely he is dealing with reasonable opponents (see Homer's many posts on this subject). I agree with Homer on this one, for the same reasons.


That is why I agree also.

[Inthacup]

Well, it wasn't at party, but the opponents play the same if not worse. They aren't retarded, Homer...they're mentally challenged.

[Inthacup]

I'm really surprised that so many think that this bet has no value. I could see a turn bet receiving this reaction, but there was so much information gained on the turn, the river becomes much easier. Hands I'm not worried about: K /forums/images/icons/spade.gif ,Q /forums/images/icons/spade.gif ,9 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif , a set, AJ or J 10. I think any of these hands would have either raised preflop, bet the flop or bet the turn. So that leaves: 7 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif ,6 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif ,5 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif that beats me. 2 limped in EP, which makes these mid spades very unlikely(pocket pairs like 7 /forums/images/icons/diamond.gif 7 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif could be a problem ). The EP poster could have virtually anything, so that's a risk, but there's not much else to worry about.

Hands that could call: 3 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif ,2 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif , any A, J or straight. The point is that there are enough worse hands that would call to warrant this bet. However, there aren't that many hands that I should be worried about on the river.


Results: I bet, first 2 players fold, poster calls and shows J /forums/images/icons/heart.gif 3 /forums/images/icons/heart.gif .

[Inthacup]

I'm disgusted

I know what you mean. That was nearly my reaction when you said that you don't raise AJs on the button after 4 limpers.

[Schmed]

I would have probably bet the turn, hoping that people with a low spade would fold. The river I dunno. I may have bet again but I would have to see how people reacted to my turn bet.

[Tyler Durden]

Is this a joke? Maybe I was out of line with my reply but this is totally uncalled for.

[Tyler Durden]

I think the possibility of a party 2-4 player folding any flush here is almost nil.

[Tyler Durden]

Okay, I should clarify. I think he will be called nearly every time by the deuce or trey of spades, but it's more likely that a better flush will be in an opponent's hand than a worse one.

I think every spade is calling this bet.

Is my logic wrong Homer?

[Inthacup]

No, it's not a joke, and no I don't think it's uncalled for. I'm just saying that you and I have very different approaches to the game. It doesn't surprise me that you were disgusted by this play. Well, I'm surprised you used the word disgusted, but I'm not surprised you disliked it. I honestly can relate to your reaction, because I've felt the same way when the situation was reversed.

[Inthacup]

I never considered getting a mid spade to fold on the river. I think it's highly unlikely that one would. If I wanted to try to get a mid spade to fold, the place for that would be the turn. However, on the river, based on the players position and playing ability, the chances of the 4 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif being the best hand was worth the bet.

[Tyler Durden]

Yet another uncalled for response.

[Homer]

Yes, the bad players will call with any spade, but based on the play up to the river it isn't likely that any of them have a spade. Maybe an EP player has a low-mid spade, but most of the time these players would bet these on the turn, right or wrong. The LP players almost certainly don't have a spade because they would definitely bet when checked to on the turn. And like I said before, it is also possible, though not likely, that you will get a reasonable player to fold a medium spade.

You will lose once in a while, but most of the time either all other players will fold or you will get a call or even multiple calls from Ax, Jx, and Tx.

I do think this bet is close, but is not razor thin. In other words, it should be made every time, but you (not you you, everyone you) might have to think about it for a second before you realize it has value. I wouldn't be surprised if I miss bets like this half the time.

-- Homer

[Homer]

It won't happen often (as you said), but once in a while there will be a semi-decent or weak-tight player that will fold a better spade. Put yourself in EP1's shoes. You have either 5, 6, or 7 /forums/images/icons/spade.gif. After it is checked through on the turn and BB bets on the river, do you call with this holding with two players behind you yet to act?

-- Homer

[Inthacup]

I hope you're talking about my signature.

[Tyler Durden]

I'm not talking about your signature.

[Bob T.]

Which is why they will call with all of those other hands that I could beat, and why they will call me for the rest of their natural lives, when I have the nut flush. Bless their hearts.