K high HU vs aggressive players flop c/r

[1800GAMBLER]

Villian is 37/18. He's c/r'ed me a few times and i've just given up. Totally lost in this one, i'll let everyone else have their say then go from there.

Party Poker 30/60 Hold'em (6 handed) pokerhand.org hand converter (http://www.pokerhand.org)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with K/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">4 folds</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.50 SB) 4/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 3/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">BB raises</font>, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) T/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets</font>, Hero calls.

Final Pot: 8.25 BB

[mmcd]

The presence of the gutshot wheel draw on the flop would dissuade from looking him up with K-high here. What was his AF? I'd rather 3-bet him on the flop or raise the turn (although the 4 pairing here opens you up to a bluff 3-bet) if his AF was either too high or too low.

Also, against some players like this I'm not completely averse to checking behind on a ragged flop and getting to showdown cheaply in this spot.

[rmarotti]

Villain has to be bluffing close to half the time if hero checks the flop and proceeds to call down.

I suck at math, but i think that's right.

[1800GAMBLER]

After his c/r the pot is just short of 4bbs, i have to pay 2.5 to call down, so i need to either improve to the best hand or be winning AND not get outdrawn 1/2.6 or roughly 40% of the time. I'll improve to the best hand, say 5 outs, 1/8, 12%, so he needs to beb bluffing 28% of the time, say 1/3.

[rmarotti]

I was referring to mm's plan of checking the flop then calling down.

[1800GAMBLER]

I def effed this up. While i think he is bluffing enough i need to remove him from the hands that are bluffing yet still beat me, Axs A5o

It seemed his flop bluffing range was anything from 56 67 to Axs, a5o, any flush draw, and a very possible chance of a random overcard bluff like TJ.

Given that hands with 4s and 3s are in slim numbers it's A3 A4 98s 9ts a9 low pockets vs bluffs, i think i can def call down if i could beat a ace high bluff here, not being able to beat that means i'm going to have to invest 3.5 thanks to the river raise. That changes my success rate needed but i don't think it matters that much because of the big increase in made hands that may fold thanks to the ten. I still think calling down has value but if i'm not raising the river then i should probably fold it since that ten completed a lot of other things.

I def think i should be going to showdown here but i should def raise the river. Turns out he had A7s and i got the 'lol' in the chat box later, that everyone does when they think they were bluffing but ended up value betting.

[tongni]

Raise the turn, if you improve bet again. Raising the river is results oriented thinking.

[mmcd]

[ QUOTE ]
Villain has to be bluffing close to half the time if hero checks the flop and proceeds to call down.

I suck at math, but i think that's right.

[/ QUOTE ]

On a 9443 board, KQ has well over 50% equity against his range. It's just a matter of how often he fires twice after you check behind on the flop. I think a guy with his numbers will do that a lot.

[1800GAMBLER]

I think raising the turn and checking the river is stupid.

[tongni]

Raising the turn and betting the river is much better than raising the river, because at least you will have some equity on the money going into the turn, and if he decides to check the river then you lost value against his draw.

[steveyz]

If you want villian to stop playing at you, raise the turn. He's not likely to fold a hand you beat, but he'll fold some 6 outers and small pairs very occasionally, but the main thing is that it usually makes those LAGs think twice about playing back at you, whether you end up winning the hand or not.

[DeeJ]

Haven't read the other comments but I'd muck it on the turn and move on cuz I only have 6 outs, the pot is tiny, there is a chance you're ahead but it's slim which is cancelled out by the fact that even your outs may not be good.

[DeeJ]

replying to my own post /images/graemlins/blush.gif now I read everything else..

I see everybody else wants to push back at Villain here. Villain is only 37% which is squarely in the "I play any hand with an Ace" VPIP range. You can raise the turn to try to get a fold against Ace high but he might even call this down....depending on the player, and it's expensive if he has something.

[MattiasL]

How aggressive is this player against raises?

For me, normally the turn is a raise-fold or fold situation.

If you think there is a high risk of a 3bet without you being beat (which is the case for very aggressive players), then I guess you could do the calldown. But with just K high you need to put a high probability on a total bluff (on the turn your pot odds are about 3:1 to get to showdown - and you have some reverse implied odds against the semi-bluffs).

If a turn raise is called, then I would only bet the river UI if a heart falls. Ace high will not fold on a non-heart river, and trying to valuebet a broken draw just seems wrong.

This kind of HU battle is so very read dependent it is hard to give a solid answer to the best line.

[Turning Stone Pro]

This is a muck on the turn, not even close. You have no hand, you're not going to get the opponent to lay down.

Muck it.

[stoxtrader]

I also muck this on the turn.

[1800GAMBLER]

My turn effective odds are going to be 6:2, 3:1, 25%, i shall improve 7:1, 12.5%, so you think i'm not beating 67 56, TJs TQs KTs KJs 87s 86s random bluff etc 1/8 here?

[MattiasL]

[ QUOTE ]
My turn effective odds are going to be 6:2, 3:1, 25%, i shall improve 7:1, 12.5%, so you think i'm not beating 67 56, TJs TQs KTs KJs 87s 86s random bluff etc 1/8 here?

[/ QUOTE ]

What's the 1/8 figure above?
As you say above your pot odds to call down are 3:1, but you need to be ahead on the turn considerably more than 1/4 for the play to be correct, since:

1. There is a bigger probability your opponent will draw out on you (when your hand is best) than the chance that you will draw out on him when his hand is best. He can easily be betting a draw rather than two random cards. And sometimes you are drawing dead.

2. If you are ahead and your opponent does not improve, he may well give up on the river. This means you do not always get the full 6BB pot that is needed for the 3:1 odds.

These two factors add up to reverse implied odds.

I do not feel like doing the detailed math, but if we start from the scenario your opponent would call in the BB with any two cards, he will still have at least a pair about 1/3 of the time.

If we want to be ahead on the turn at least 1/3 of the time (just estimate) to have the odds, how often will the opponent have to bluff like this (flop and turn) with nothing (except possibly a draw)?

Let's call his bluffing probability P, then you are ahead
2/3 * P of the time.

This means that he has to bluff more than 50% even with the above assumption that he would call an EP raise with any two. In reality your situation is worse even with low cards on the table (which will tend to miss real calling hands), since even ace high is ahead of you.

So he will probably have to be a pathologically wild player that bluffs (flop AND turn) something like 70-80% when he is without cards HU before calling down can be correct.

[1800GAMBLER]

Factor 1 means he'll draw out on me 4:1. Factor 2 doesn't change much, he will sometimes give up so when he does i'll be calling with 5:1.5, but he will also give up some slim value bets on the river.

In my first calc i was didn't factor in the implied odds of 2bbs when i hit my 4 offsuited outs.


'but if we start from the scenario your opponent would call in the BB with any two cards, he will still have at least a pair about 1/3 of the time.'

on this board, this is very untrue because of the 3 and 4 cards.

[MattiasL]

[ QUOTE ]
Factor 1 means he'll draw out on me 4:1.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not sure what the total draw-out odds are, but for drawing hands it is more 1/4. Unless he has a K or Q all six pairing outs are also live (no PP since this is the case where you are ahead).

[ QUOTE ]
Factor 2 doesn't change much, he will sometimes give up so when he does i'll be calling with 5:1.5, but he will also give up some slim value bets on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Fair enough. We are doing rough estimates here, anyway.

[ QUOTE ]
'but if we start from the scenario your opponent would call in the BB with any two cards, he will still have at least a pair about 1/3 of the time.'

on this board, this is very untrue because of the 3 and 4 cards.

[/ QUOTE ]
I did use the starting assumption that he called with any two (totally random) cards. If you adjust for his actual calling range there will be fewer times he pairs the board, but there will be more ace high hands and pocket pairs. If he is reasonably tight preflop, I think this makes your odds worse.

[Lmn55d]

hey gambler, quick question about that math. You say you need to beat bluff 1/8...but don't you only need to beat a bluff if you don't improve. In other words, if you improve 12.5% doesn't he need to be bluffing the river more than 12.5% to make a call down correct? .875 x B = .25. B= 28.6%. So he would need to be bluffing close to 30% when you don't hit, right?

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]

I did use the starting assumption that he called with any two (totally random) cards. If you adjust for his actual calling range there will be fewer times he pairs the board, but there will be more ace high hands and pocket pairs. If he is reasonably tight preflop, I think this makes your odds worse.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ace high is unlikely to 'bluff'

[1800GAMBLER]

[ QUOTE ]
hey gambler, quick question about that math. You say you need to beat bluff 1/8...but don't you only need to beat a bluff if you don't improve. In other words, if you improve 12.5% doesn't he need to be bluffing the river more than 12.5% to make a call down correct? .875 x B = .25. B= 28.6%. So he would need to be bluffing close to 30% when you don't hit, right?

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct my math was wrong. I need to win x times when i don't improve that equal 0.25 so your 30% fig is correct.

I'm going to post another, simpler one of these.

[esspo]

What steveyz said. Raising the turn will show a profit if you have shown the willingness to lay down big cards unimproved on the turn, which you have, and would take the same line with a big pair, which you should.

Just don't make the play too often. The +/- ev of raising the turn depends greatly upon the frequency that you make the play.

[Lestat]

I don't think king-high in generally strong enough to try and induce TWO more bluffs. But against certain players it may be profitable.

But when you feel a guy's trying to mouse you out of a pot, and/or feel you have outs when you're wrong, I prefer to either 3-bet or pop the turn. That's why God created position.