River Value Bet Opinions

[QTip]

UTG is laggy

BB is loose passive to the tune of 50/0/.40

Party Poker 2/4 Hold'em (8 handed) converter (http://www.selachian.com/tools/bisonconverter/hhconverter.cgi)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 9/images/graemlins/heart.gif, 9/images/graemlins/diamond.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) 8/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 2/images/graemlins/spade.gif, T/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, BB calls, UTG calls.

Turn: (6.25 BB) K/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
BB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls, UTG folds.

River: (8.25 BB) 4/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks,

Do you think I have a value bet here?

[toss]

I'd do it. I can see an 8, ace high, or small pair being BB's most likely holdings.

[Nick Royale]

No, at best you're minimizing your loss by betting. I would probably bet/fold.

EDIT: ok, so now I realise we're last to act. I would check.

[jskills]

I assume UTG checked the river too?

I'd probably just check behind, in case someone's got a 10.

[toss]

Its HU on the river.

[peterchi]

[ QUOTE ]
No, at best you're minimizing your loss by betting. I would probably bet/fold.

EDIT: my first edit was just confusing, so I stick to my original post /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

[/ QUOTE ]
heh I'm still confused. If it's not a value-bet, why not just check behind?

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
No, at best you're minimizing your loss by betting. I would probably bet/fold.

EDIT: ok, so now I realise we're last to act. I would check.


[/ QUOTE ]

You lost me Nick.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
heh I'm still confused. If it's not a value-bet, why not just check behind?

[/ QUOTE ]
Didn't realise we were last to act. Since I guess UTG has checked, I would check behind. If there wouyld have been a player yet to act I think bet/folding is the best option by far...

EDIT 7: Ok, so UTG folds the turn, I check the river... /images/graemlins/blush.gif

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
You lost me Nick.

[/ QUOTE ]
Jeez, I need to go to sleep...

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
heh I'm still confused. If it's not a value-bet, why not just check behind?

[/ QUOTE ]
Didn't realise we were last to act. Since I guess UTG has checked, I would check behind. If there wouyld have been a player yet to act I think bet/folding is the best option by far...

[/ QUOTE ]

That would certainly change the action; however, I'm not in agreement with your statement here. But, I'm listening if you want to explain.

[TemetNosce]

Yes. There are plenty of hands that the BB could have that you beat since he/she is LPP.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
That would certainly change the action; however, I'm not in agreement with your statement here. But, I'm listening if you want to explain.

[/ QUOTE ]
If we have a player yet to act (3-ways on the river, one player have checked) I don't think we can check/fold. A fold to a raise or check/raise would be safe. We'll get more hands to see a showdown by betting the river and these extra hands are hands that you beat. The only exception to this line would be if the player yet to act is very passive or very aggressive in which case we could check/fold respectively check/call. But this is so basic I believe I've missed you once again /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes. There are plenty of hands that the BB could have that you beat since he/she is LPP.

[/ QUOTE ]
This player called 2 cold on the flop. I would need a wtsd stat or a "real" read to be able to valuebet this. I'm not sure how much a 50% vpip tells us...

[jskills]

[ QUOTE ]
Its HU on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

Oops. Thanks.

I think I still check behind. Gay?

i bet this anytime. LPPs tend to show down any pair, most likely an 8 in your hand. you can safely fold to a raise, but i am not expecting one.

[mack848]

When this player cold calls this drawless flop, he usually has (at least) a Ten or an 8. I think he calls a river bet without a ten (or better) &lt;50% of the time, so I check the river through.

[QTip]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
That would certainly change the action; however, I'm not in agreement with your statement here. But, I'm listening if you want to explain.

[/ QUOTE ]
If we have a player yet to act (3-ways on the river, one player have checked) I don't think we can check/fold. A fold to a raise or check/raise would be safe. We'll get more hands to see a showdown by betting the river and these extra hands are hands that you beat. The only exception to this line would be if the player yet to act is very passive or very aggressive in which case we could check/fold respectively check/call. But this is so basic I believe I've missed you once again /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm talking about HU with loose passive behind us.

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
I'm talking about HU with loose passive behind us.

[/ QUOTE ]
Should have guessed. The reason I check is because is the lack of wtsd stats and "real" reads. He's calling 2 cold on the flop, will he do that with weak 8's? I really don't know, but the read is too vague for me to keep betting. The only postflop read we have is that he's passive (will not bet/raise his good hands) and that should make us more inclined to check. I'm fully aware that 50% vpip most likely makes him loose/passive postflop, but I'm not sure if that's enough to make this a valuebet.

[mmbt0ne]

</font><blockquote><font class="small">En réponse à:</font><hr />
When this player cold calls this drawless flop, he usually has (at least) a Ten or an 8. I think he calls a river bet without a ten (or better) &lt;50% of the time, so I check the river through.

[/ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't exactly call this flop drawless, but it's pretty darn close. QJ and J9 are the only two drawing hands I could see.

The problem is, neither of these is calling the river very much. Are you good more than 50% of the time here? Easily. Are you good more than 50% of the time you're called though? That's the real question. I think the answer is no, so I check behind.

[benkath1]

Is this a hand you ask 'What hand will call that you have beat?'

[QTip]

For the record, I checked behind. He had AQo.

[toss]

Viiizzzaaaallluuuueee beeeeettt.

[Evan]

EDIT: I misread the board before and though we had flopped an overpair. I check the river, you should too.

Being able to edit foerver with my mod powers rules.

[Octopus]

[ QUOTE ]
easiest. bet. ever.

[/ QUOTE ]

This *may* be overstating things a bit. On the other hand, I, a known wimp when it comes to river value bets, would bet this one more often than not.

[ArturiusX]

I thought about this sum, occasionally we'll see a passivly played 8, but more likely we're up against a missed draw.

I check behind.

[pokerstudAA]

[ QUOTE ]
When this player cold calls this drawless flop, he usually has (at least) a Ten or an 8.

[/ QUOTE ]


Add 9J in there to the flop cold calls. AT, A8, TJ, 88, TT. If he is real loose passive calling station add a bunch more. AX....T4...The king sucked too - giving a few more draws.. mabye he has a K. He is not going to fold to a river bet. He might call you with ace high but the flop cold call looks like he got a piece. I check behind. The question is really do you have the best hand.

With a loose passive - who really knows??

[Argus]

I think most of the posters that are advocating a value bet are confusing the likelihood that our hand is best (pretty high) with the likelihood that our hand is best when called (not so good). Without a specific read that villain is willing to call river bets with some weak holdings I would check behind.